Smart's Bubble Watch (3/1)

[Smart]

Locks (99%+) (29):
Saint Louis
Miami
Duke
NC State
Kansas
Kansas State
Oklahoma State
Georgetown
Syracuse
Louisville
Notre Dame
Pitt
Indiana
Michigan State
Wisconsin
Michigan
Ohio State
Memphis
New Mexico
Colorado State
Arizona
Florida
Gonzaga
North Carolina (+)
Marquette (+)
Minnesota (+)
UNLV (+)
Oregon (+)
Missouri (+)

All But Locks (90%-99%) (11):
Butler
VCU
Oklahoma
Iowa State
Illinois
Wichita State
Creighton
San Diego State
UCLA (+)
Cal (+)
Kentucky (+)

Most Likely In (60%-90%) (5):
Cincinnati
Ole Miss
Virginia (+)
Colorado (+)
St. Mary’s (+)

Right On The Bubble (40%-60%) (8):
La Salle
Villanova
Iowa
Akron
Boise State
Middle Tennessee
Maryland (-)
Temple (+)

Most Likely Out (10%-40%) (7):
Baylor
Southern Miss
Belmont
Arizona State
Tennessee
Louisiana Tech
LSU (+)

All But Out (1%-10%) (7):
Valparaiso
Air Force
Bucknell
Stephen F. Austin
Arkansas (-)
Davidson (-)
St. Johns (-)

Done (1%-):
Everyone Else
TAMU (--)
Charlotte (-)
UMass (-)
Detroit (-)
Ohio (-)
Northern Iowa (-)
Indiana State (-)
Wyoming (-)
Stanford (-)
BYU (-)

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

pretty good sir

only thing I really see wrong is that Butler should probably be a lock, they have far too many good wins to miss the tournament even if they somehow don't win any of their ending games, all but lock is still not a bad category for them

 

[Red_Alert]

Creighton just beat Wichita St 91-79

McDermott had 41 pts..

Wichita St better hope either they or Creighton wins the MVC tournament.

 

[rmilia1]

Creighton just beat Wichita St 91-79

McDermott had 41 pts..

Wichita St better hope either they or Creighton wins the MVC tournament.

Eh both those teams are in. Both have better resumes than most other bubble type teams.

 

[Red_Alert]

Eh both those teams are in. Both have better resumes than most other bubble type teams.

They'll take 3 from MVC?

 

[Smart]

Creighton just beat Wichita St 91-79

McDermott had 41 pts..

Wichita St better hope either they or Creighton wins the MVC tournament.

I viewed Creighton-Wichita, VCU-Butler, and Oklahoma-Iowa State as play-in games. Whenever I make my new Bubble Watch, all three winners (Creighton, VCU, and Oklahoma) will be locks.

I'm not sure how I view Wichita. Their signature wins (@ VCU and at home versus Creighton) aren't very good. Their bad losses (SIU especially, but Evansville and Indiana State at home as well) don't look very good. Their RPI puts them firmly on the bubble. It seems weird to say since they looked firmly entrenched in the field all year, but I think they are currently "Most Likely In' at best. With an early loss in Arch Madness (which I may or may not attend) or a bunch of autobids losing at their conference tourney, they could very well find themselves missing the dance or being in the First Four.

 

[rmilia1]

They'll take 3 from MVC?

Sure. What conference teams are from has nothing to do with them getting in. Otherwise the BE wouldnt have gotten 11 teams in last year... LOL