Smart's Bubble Watch (2/28)

[Smart]

Locks (99%+):
Duke
North Carolina
Kansas
Missouri
Baylor
Syracuse
Marquette
Ohio State
Michigan State
Wisconsin
UNLV
Kentucky
Florida
Georgetown
Michigan
SDSU
Florida State
Gonzaga
Notre Dame
Louisville
Wichita State
New Mexico
California
Murray State
Vanderbilt
Indiana (+)
St. Mary’s (+)
Iowa State (+)
Creighton (+)

All But Locks (90%-99%):
Virginia
Saint Louis
Kansas State
Cincy
Temple
Purdue (+)
Memphis (+)
BYU (+)
Alabama (+)
Arizona (+)

Most Likely In (60%-90%):
Texas
Harvard (-)
Miami (+)
Washington (+)
South Florida (+)

Right On The Bubble (40%-60%):
Xavier
West Virginia
UConn
Long Beach State
VCU
Southern Miss
Oregon
Seton Hall
Drexel
Northwestern (+)
Colorado (+)

Most Likely Out (10%-40%):
UCF
Oral Roberts
Illinois
Iona
NC State (-)
Mississippi State (-)
Colorado State (-)

All But Out (1%-10%):
Weber State
George Mason
Davidson
Belmont
Wyoming
Ole Miss
Arkansas
Maryland (-)
MTSU (-)
LSU (-)

Done (1%-):
Everyone Else

Newly Done:
UMass (--)
Minnesota (--)
Wagner (-)
South Dakota State (-)
Nevada (-)
Akron (-)

This will be my last one until after the regular season ends on Sunday. Currently, there are:
29 Locks
10 All But Locks
5 Most Likely In
11 Right On The Bubble (cutoff likely somewhere around the 4-5 range)
7 Most Likely Out
10 All But Out
(72 Total)

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

well done, sir

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

actually someone that I think at least belongs in the all but out section is TCU

TCU has wins over
Virginia
New Mexico
UNLV
Wyoming
Colorado State


though they have lost to

Norfolk State
Mississippi
Nebraska
USC
Tulsa
Colorado State
UNLV
San Diego State
SMU
Boise State

 

[rmilia1]

Pretty solid SB, I ahvent quite given up on Illinois yet like you appear to have. 17-12, RPi in the 60's but with wins over OSU, MSU, Gonzaga. If the Illini can get a few wins this week at home vs Michigan and Wisconsin then i think not only are they back on the bubble but Id probably have them in.

 

[Smart]

actually someone that I think at least belongs in the all but out section is TCU

When I put a team in the "Done" section, I almost never resurrect them (similarly, I almost never remove teams from lock status). TCU was getting close to being that team, but they still have the major problem that they can't win true road games. They only have 3 such wins all year, and they are by six points combined. Simply put, that's not going to get you into the dance. TCU had one last chance for a decent road win last night and I was prepared to put them in "All But Out" if they could have won their last two games. They didn't, and with the weakness of their road schedule, I just can't see them in the dance.

Pretty solid SB, I ahvent quite given up on Illinois yet like you appear to have. 17-12, RPi in the 60's but with wins over OSU, MSU, Gonzaga. If the Illini can get a few wins this week at home vs Michigan and Wisconsin then i think not only are they back on the bubble but Id probably have them in.

I think I am much more high on Illinois than most people. I think Illinois needs to win three more games to get in (Either 1 this week and 2 at BTT or 2 this week and 1 at the BTT). I think the odds of that happening are in the 20-25% range, hence where I have them now. I definitely think Illinois has a lot to play for, and could very well go on a run to make the tourney.

Also, I should add that last night K-State and St. Louis became locks, Memphis moved really close to lock status, West Virginia moved to "Most Likely In", UConn is still "Right on the Bubble" but probably went from one of the 4 or 5 in to one of the teams on the wrong side, Xavier is Most Likely Out but will probably go back to the bubble if they kill Charlotte, and Weber State is officially done as an at-large hopeful.

 

[rmilia1]

I also think UNI still has a shot at an at large if they can make the MVC championship game. Panthers are 19-12 but have 3 top 50 RPI wins and would get another 1 if they make the title game of the MVC. 21-13 out of the MVC probably doesnt get you in most years but this years bubble is super weak and theyd have an RPI in the 50's and more top 50 wins than alot of the other teams theyd be competing against.