Smart's Bubble Watch (2/24)

[Smart]

Locks (99%+):
Duke
North Carolina
Kansas
Missouri
Baylor
Syracuse
Marquette
Ohio State
Michigan State
Wisconsin
UNLV
Kentucky
Florida
Georgetown
Michigan
SDSU
Florida State (+)
Gonzaga (+)
Notre Dame (+)
Louisville (+)
Wichita State (+)
New Mexico (+)
California (+)
Murray State (++)
Vanderbilt (++)

All But Locks (90%-99%):
Virginia
Indiana
Saint Mary’s
Saint Louis (+)
Iowa State (+)
Kansas State (+)
Cincy (+)
Creighton (+)
Harvard (+)
Temple (+)

Most Likely In (60%-90%):
Purdue
Mississippi State
Texas
Memphis
BYU
Alabama (+)
Arizona (+)

Right On The Bubble (40%-60%):
Xavier
NC State
Washington
West Virginia
UConn
Miami
Long Beach State
VCU
Southern Miss (-)
South Florida (+)
Oregon (+)
Seton Hall (+)
Drexel (+)
Colorado State (++)

Most Likely Out (10%-40%):
Maryland
Northwestern
UCF
Colorado
Oral Roberts
MTSU
UMass
Minnesota (-)
Illinois (-)
Iona (+)
LSU (+)

All But Out (1%-10%):
Weber State
George Mason
Wagner
Davidson
South Dakota State
Belmont
Wyoming (--)
Ole Miss (-)
Arkansas (-)
Nevada (-)
Akron (-)

Done (1%-):
Everyone Else

Newly Done:
La Salle (-)
St. Bonaventure (-)
St. Joseph (-)
Pitt (-)
Tulsa (-)
UT-Arlington (-)
Cleveland State (-)

This week, there are 25 locks, 10 All But Locks (who should all be locks by week's end), 7 Most Likely In, 14 Right On The Bubble, 11 Most Likely Out, 11 All But Out (who will likely all be out by this point next week).

With 20 spots going to autobids that would not make it as an at-large, that puts the dividing line right near the center of "Right On The Bubble."

 

[rmilia1]

Pretty solid SB although I think you are too low on Northwestern. Alot of projections ahve them in right now. Solid RPI and some good wins. Id put them Right on the Bubble

 

[Forty_Sixand2]

Pitt is going to win the Big Est tourney and get in!!!!




....probably not but.....

 

[Smart]

Pretty solid SB although I think you are too low on Northwestern. Alot of projections ahve them in right now. Solid RPI and some good wins. Id put them Right on the Bubble

They need to go at least 2-1 in their last three, with games @ Penn State, H vs. Ohio State, and @ Iowa. I think they lose the last two. Northwestern may have a good RPI, but the committee will be tentative to put a 7-11 team in the dance, especially when their best nonconference win is Seton Hall. If they go 2-1 in their last three, they'll probably make it if they don't lay an egg in the B1G tourney.