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Sorry I was so late with my first one this year. I've been a little busy. The teams are not ranked within each category (they will be later in the year). There will likely be 23ish conference tourneys won by teams below the bubble, so the cutoff today would be about halfway through the bubble. As the year moves along, more and more teams will be classified as "Locks," and by Selection Sunday there are only about 15 teams anywhere in between.
Locks (99%+) (21):
Cincinnati
Louisville
St. Louis
Syracuse
Virginia
Duke
Kansas
Texas
Iowa State
Creighton
Villanova
Michigan State
Michigan
Iowa
Wisconsin
Wichita State
San Diego State
Arizona
UCLA
Florida
Kentucky
All But Locks (90%-99%) (6):
UConn
North Carolina
Pitt
Oklahoma
Ohio State
Gonzaga
Most Likely In (60%-90%) (12):
SMU
Memphis
VCU
UMass
George Washington
Kansas State
Xavier
Minnesota
New Mexico
Arizona State
Cal
Stanford
Right On The Bubble (40%-60%) (9):
Richmond
Oklahoma State
Providence
St. Johns
Harvard
Colorado
Oregon
Tennessee
BYU
Most Likely Out (10%-40%) (14):
St. Joe's
NC State
Florida State
West Virginia
Baylor
Marquette
Georgetown
Nebraska
Southern Miss
Utah
Ole Miss
LSU
Arkansas
Stephen F. Austin
All But Out (1%-10%) (15):
Dayton
Clemson
Maryland
Purdue
Indiana
Louisiana Tech
Middle Tennessee
Green Bay
Toledo
Indiana State
UNLV
Wyoming
Georgia
North Dakota State
St. Marys
Done (1%-):
Everyone Else
Locks (99%+) (21):
Cincinnati
Louisville
St. Louis
Syracuse
Virginia
Duke
Kansas
Texas
Iowa State
Creighton
Villanova
Michigan State
Michigan
Iowa
Wisconsin
Wichita State
San Diego State
Arizona
UCLA
Florida
Kentucky
All But Locks (90%-99%) (6):
UConn
North Carolina
Pitt
Oklahoma
Ohio State
Gonzaga
Most Likely In (60%-90%) (12):
SMU
Memphis
VCU
UMass
George Washington
Kansas State
Xavier
Minnesota
New Mexico
Arizona State
Cal
Stanford
Right On The Bubble (40%-60%) (9):
Richmond
Oklahoma State
Providence
St. Johns
Harvard
Colorado
Oregon
Tennessee
BYU
Most Likely Out (10%-40%) (14):
St. Joe's
NC State
Florida State
West Virginia
Baylor
Marquette
Georgetown
Nebraska
Southern Miss
Utah
Ole Miss
LSU
Arkansas
Stephen F. Austin
All But Out (1%-10%) (15):
Dayton
Clemson
Maryland
Purdue
Indiana
Louisiana Tech
Middle Tennessee
Green Bay
Toledo
Indiana State
UNLV
Wyoming
Georgia
North Dakota State
St. Marys
Done (1%-):
Everyone Else