Smart's Bubble Watch (2/18)

[Smart]

Sorry I was so late with my first one this year. I've been a little busy. The teams are not ranked within each category (they will be later in the year). There will likely be 23ish conference tourneys won by teams below the bubble, so the cutoff today would be about halfway through the bubble. As the year moves along, more and more teams will be classified as "Locks," and by Selection Sunday there are only about 15 teams anywhere in between.

Locks (99%+) (21):
Cincinnati
Louisville
St. Louis
Syracuse
Virginia
Duke
Kansas
Texas
Iowa State
Creighton
Villanova
Michigan State
Michigan
Iowa
Wisconsin
Wichita State
San Diego State
Arizona
UCLA
Florida
Kentucky

All But Locks (90%-99%) (6):
UConn
North Carolina
Pitt
Oklahoma
Ohio State
Gonzaga

Most Likely In (60%-90%) (12):
SMU
Memphis
VCU
UMass
George Washington
Kansas State
Xavier
Minnesota
New Mexico
Arizona State
Cal
Stanford

Right On The Bubble (40%-60%) (9):
Richmond
Oklahoma State
Providence
St. Johns
Harvard
Colorado
Oregon
Tennessee
BYU

Most Likely Out (10%-40%) (14):
St. Joe's
NC State
Florida State
West Virginia
Baylor
Marquette
Georgetown
Nebraska
Southern Miss
Utah
Ole Miss
LSU
Arkansas
Stephen F. Austin

All But Out (1%-10%) (15):
Dayton
Clemson
Maryland
Purdue
Indiana
Louisiana Tech
Middle Tennessee
Green Bay
Toledo
Indiana State
UNLV
Wyoming
Georgia
North Dakota State
St. Marys

Done (1%-):
Everyone Else

 

[HawkeyesRuleURFace]

FSU really pissed down their leg last night

 

[kramer1]

I'd move Xavier down a tier.

 

[Loneranger]

FSU really pissed down their leg last night

you aren't kiddin. They fucked up a game they needed to win and should expect to win

 

[iruletheskool]

Gbr

 

[Runeman]

you aren't kiddin. They fucked up a game they needed to win and should expect to win

I get the first part, however "expect to win"...not so sure about that. IMO, North Carolina is a better team that is currently playing better. I expect them to give Duke all they want this week.

 

[jonvi]

For some reason FSU hasn't been a dominant at home this year. They broke many teams backs at home the last couple of years.

UNC has become a much better team. They are playing better then when SU played them.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

Xavier should definitely be moved down a notch. Especially if you see the gauntlet they have remaining.

 

[Smart]

Most experts have Xavier in the dance now. I agree they have some tough games left, but the committee hates punishing teams for taking risks. Xavier went 0-3 in the Battle 4 Atlantis, so you need to think of those losses as being given the benefit of the doubt.

They have some tough games, but I think 3-3 over the next 6 likely gets them in. I will say that I think that they (along with Minnesota and GW) are at the bottom of the "Most Likely Ins."

 

[HizzleRocker]

I think between Baylor, Ok State, and WVU - 2 teams get in.

 

[dcZONAfan]

I think between Baylor, Ok State, and WVU - 2 teams get in.

i think 0 of those teams should be in the tournament, unless OK State goes on a serious run.

 

[Red_Alert]

Minnesota's got arguably the toughest remaining schedule in the Big 10.

I'm not so sure they finish with 20 wins and better than .500 in conference.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

Minnesota's got arguably the toughest remaining schedule in the Big 10.

I'm not so sure they finish with 20 wins and better than .500 in conference.

I think based on where they are just getting the Illinois and Penn State wins will be enough now.

Hard to hold at OSU, at Michigan and Iowa against them. Win 1 of those 3 and it's a lock.

However, they will need to win that first Big 10 tourney game if they only beat the two bottom feeders.

 

[Brasky]

Nebraska's body of work is better than its record probably suggests - CBSSports.com

the Huskers have three top-50 RPI wins, and just three losses outside of the top 50, which means they have as many top-50 wins as Ohio State, Virginia, Louisville, Memphis and Connecticut (and one more than Kentucky), and fewer losses outside of the top 50 than North Carolina, Kansas State, Georgetown, Missouri, Xavier and Minnesota.

Seven of Nebraska's 10 losses are to sure-bet NCAA tournament teams.

An eighth came before Thanksgiving.

The other two came on the road in league play.

"Look at the details," Miles said. "All the bubble teams would be 14-10 with our schedule."

 

[Jack_John_Mark]

Nebraska's body of work is better than its record probably suggests - CBSSports.com

the Huskers have three top-50 RPI wins, and just three losses outside of the top 50, which means they have as many top-50 wins as Ohio State, Virginia, Louisville, Memphis and Connecticut (and one more than Kentucky), and fewer losses outside of the top 50 than North Carolina, Kansas State, Georgetown, Missouri, Xavier and Minnesota.

Seven of Nebraska's 10 losses are to sure-bet NCAA tournament teams.

An eighth came before Thanksgiving.

The other two came on the road in league play.

"Look at the details," Miles said. "All the bubble teams would be 14-10 with our schedule."

lol

Tim just tells it how it is......he never beats around the bush

 

[Brasky]

We'll be locks when we beat Wiscy at home.

 

[Jack_John_Mark]

Joe Lunardi needs to pull his his hand out of his ass..........

And then he needs to use that hand to pull his head out of his ass......

If Nebraska beats Penn State and Purdue at home in these next to games and moves to 8-6 in Conference play, he better have us in the mix.