Re-evaluating the Marte/Walker for Haniger/Segura trade

[PolarVortex]

Wih the emergence of Ketel Marte as an elite hitter, it is time to take another look at this trade. I'll evaluate on a year by year basis.

2017. Marte and Haniger both missed time but Haniger was clearly the better player. Walker had a typical underwhelming Walker season while Segura turned the best season of all players involved in the trade. Zac Curtis, a guy Arizona also threw in, made 3 appearances for the Mariners and was then picked up on waivers by Texas. The trade easily went Seattle's way in 2017.

2018. Haniger had his coming out party and placed 11th in the league MVP vote. Segura was not quite as good as 2017 but was still solid. Marte had a coming out party of his own rocking 52 extra base hits and giving notice of what was to come. Walker went down early and has not been seen since. Seattle won this trade by a landslide in 2018.

2019. Haniger is hurt again and is starting to get a reputation of being a brittle bitch. He has missed 35% of Mariner games since the trade. The Segura trail went as follows. Jean became JP Crawford and Carlos Santana. Carlos Santana became Edwin Encarnacion. Edwin Encarnacion became Juan Then. Juan is only 19 years old but he looks okay so far. 2.98 ERA in 9 starts at lower A ball. He should be in high A ball next year and perhaps finish the season in AA. If all goes as planned he could reach the majors by late 2022 or 2023. Haniger misses most of the season while Marte breaks through to become an elite hitter. It's debatable that maybe he is on the caribbean milkshakes but if he isn't getting caught, it hardly matters. J P Crawford looks like he could be a starter in MLB but it is debatable if he will ever be anything remotely above average. Arizona clearly wins the trade in 2019.

2020. What it has come down to is Haniger and Crawford versus Marte with Walker's status unknown. If Haniger can repeat his 2018 season and Crawford starts 120+ games, Seattle may win this trade in 2020. But I'm not counting on Haniger playing 157 games again, ever. He'll also be 29 years old and arbitration eligible so you have to wonder if he might be in a different uniform next year.

 

[SeattleCoug]

Marte still blows my mind, but good for him that he was able to get out of this organization while he was still young enough to potentially have a good career.

 

[wazzu31]

I think Marte and Haniger were both guys who needed a change of scenery. Both were under valued with their respective teams. No way possible could anyone think Marte would become the offensive player he has become. He was Mallex Smith his entire career before Arizona.

 

[seattlefan75]

The easiest way to determine who won the trade is if you could make the trade again who would you take and if Arizona would offer us Marte for Crawford and Haniger I would probably take it. It took Marte like 1300 at bats before coming out but Haniger to me looks like a good player maybe someone you want on a team that is contending but I did not like how much he struckout prior to his injury and I think he pretty much reached his full potential I don't see him doing that much better than his 2018 season. Crawford looks like he could be a Jack Wilson type a SS that can make players with his glove, good around the bases, at the plate might hit around .270-.280 on a good year 7-10 homers. If Marte can keep up what he is doing and that this is not just a one time think where he can play this well I would rather have Marte.

 

[seahawksfan234]

Wih the emergence of Ketel Marte as an elite hitter, it is time to take another look at this trade. I'll evaluate on a year by year basis.

2017. Marte and Haniger both missed time but Haniger was clearly the better player. Walker had a typical underwhelming Walker season while Segura turned the best season of all players involved in the trade. Zac Curtis, a guy Arizona also threw in, made 3 appearances for the Mariners and was then picked up on waivers by Texas. The trade easily went Seattle's way in 2017.

2018. Haniger had his coming out party and placed 11th in the league MVP vote. Segura was not quite as good as 2017 but was still solid. Marte had a coming out party of his own rocking 52 extra base hits and giving notice of what was to come. Walker went down early and has not been seen since. Seattle won this trade by a landslide in 2018.

2019. Haniger is hurt again and is starting to get a reputation of being a brittle bitch. He has missed 35% of Mariner games since the trade. The Segura trail went as follows. Jean became JP Crawford and Carlos Santana. Carlos Santana became Edwin Encarnacion. Edwin Encarnacion became Juan Then. Juan is only 19 years old but he looks okay so far. 2.98 ERA in 9 starts at lower A ball. He should be in high A ball next year and perhaps finish the season in AA. If all goes as planned he could reach the majors by late 2022 or 2023. Haniger misses most of the season while Marte breaks through to become an elite hitter. It's debatable that maybe he is on the caribbean milkshakes but if he isn't getting caught, it hardly matters. J P Crawford looks like he could be a starter in MLB but it is debatable if he will ever be anything remotely above average. Arizona clearly wins the trade in 2019.

2020. What it has come down to is Haniger and Crawford versus Marte with Walker's status unknown. If Haniger can repeat his 2018 season and Crawford starts 120+ games, Seattle may win this trade in 2020. But I'm not counting on Haniger playing 157 games again, ever. He'll also be 29 years old and arbitration eligible so you have to wonder if he might be in a different uniform next year.

I'll be the contrarian and say that it's really hard to tell at this point for a few reasons, in no order:

1. When we traded Ketel Marte he had the physique of a holocaust survivor who looked like he was a defense first-SS with minimal impact at the plate. I don't think anyone anticipated that he would (or could) add like 30lbs of muscle and somehow become such an elite player. If the D'Backs GM saw that coming I'd like him to manage my stock portfolio.

2. The return on Segura was very weak. If not for his issues in the clubhouse I legitimately believe that the Mariners would've either (A) Received a much better return for him as he's under a friendly contract, relatively young and an above average player at all five phases of the game or (B) Held on to him as a piece of the "rebuild" - or whatever you want to call it - due to his youth.

3. The Haniger injuries have mostly been freak of nature shit that is unlikely to replicate itself. Taking a fastball to the face and fouling a ball off your nuts just doesn't happen often. The fact that Haniger suffered back issues when he was cleared to return playing doesn't surprise me as he was likely unable to do much - if any - conditioning. Sure there are other injuries he has suffered and it could be the eternal optimist in me, but I wouldn't be surprised if in 2020 he plays like he did in 2018.

I don't know if the Mariners will move Haniger in the offseason. The Mariners have some great OF prospects, but they are still prospects. Haniger's value is pretty diminished right now due to a slow start to the season and the injury issues. The Mariners have quite a logjam at OF right now so it's hard to say what they should do with him.