Question for the gambling experts

[fightinfunbags]

This is the traditional logic. If you can get even money on both sides of the proposition as the house, you win no matter what. And that is a big part of what influences line moves, in theory.

But in practice it does not always work out that way. I read that the majority of the money tomorrow is on the Eagles for example even though the spread is under 3 points on most boards. Not sure I totally understand why the line hasn't moved more as a result.

This development is not good from an Eagles fan perspective. It smells like somebody knows something we don’t. Additionally, if a gambler is committed to fading the public on games and plays like this, they generally will win 55-65% of the time.

 

[fightinfunbags]

As far as betting on Philly if I were you, I don't let that bother me if it's my team or not when it comes to betting. I always try to bet with my head. Now I am actually more likely to bet against my team than for them because I figure if I think my team winning is the bet I still "win" if they win the game and if it's the opposite I can tell myself at least I won money as a consolation prize. But I always root with my heart and not for my bets. I'll give you an example of how I bet. Obviously I would have loved to have seen the Eagles lose every game this year. But, I have already won way more money on them than any other NFL team and it's not close. In addition t weekly bets I already won on 'over 9.5 wins' and 'over 10.5 wins' (neither of these were high odds of course) and on them winning the division (a small bet before and a bigger bet the second they traded for AJ Brown). I also have them winning the NFC Championship game (not too much) and a few bets on them winning the SB. One made very early on in the season and then others made as recently as a week ago the night they had already beat the Giants and Mahomes went down. My thinking was it was a tossup between the 3 AFC teams left and SF and Dallas still had to play. Philly's odds should have been the lowest by far at that particular point in time. If they win the SB I will have won thousands on them (due to the odds, I didn't bet thousands). But in true NFCE division rival fashion, I hope they lose and lose badly. I won't remember the money a year from now either way.

Good post. My thing on betting on my team is I can’t decipher in my handicapping what is information that’s coming without bias and what’s the product of me looking at the game with green colored glasses.

 

[rmilia1]

This is the traditional logic. If you can get even money on both sides of the proposition as the house, you win no matter what. And that is a big part of what influences line moves, in theory.

But in practice it does not always work out that way. I read that the majority of the money tomorrow is on the Eagles for example even though the spread is under 3 points on most boards. Not sure I totally understand why the line hasn't moved more as a result.

SF was a pre post 2 pt favorite over Philly part week . I think most of it was the uncertainty around Hurts shoulder but once that was answered the line open Philly minus

You combine that with the public overreaction to Philly housing the Giants and you get a l8t of general public money on Philly. The reason it hadn't impacted the line much is the sharp money is split pretty evenly. The line really only moves a lot when respected money comes in huge one way or the other like it did early in the AFC game game

 

[PDay8810]

The reason it hadn't impacted the line much is the sharp money is split pretty evenly. The line really only moves a lot when respected money comes in huge one way or the other like it did early in the AFC game game

THIS

 

[jarntt]

Good post. My thing on betting on my team is I can’t decipher in my handicapping what is information that’s coming without bias and what’s the product of me looking at the game with green colored glasses.

True that is the hard part, but you know your team as well as any handicapper/computer. Yeah, they have you on the stats and the trends but you have a better feel of how your team is actually playing and whether one or two fluky plays changed the outcome of a previous game, etc

 

[SteelersPride]

Let's say the bookmaker really likes a team to win, for this example let's say the Eagles. Will they purposefully set the line so that it favors the Niners, to bring in more money on the Niners hoping they lose? Or do they always try to make the bets on each side close to equal and just make money on the vig?

They want it it to be even on both sides. That way theres no risk and they take the vig. However said bookies may not operate. Exactly like a true bookmaker

 

[SteelersPride]

SF was a pre post 2 pt favorite over Philly part week . I think most of it was the uncertainty around Hurts shoulder but once that was answered the line open Philly minus

You combine that with the public overreaction to Philly housing the Giants and you get a l8t of general public money on Philly. The reason it hadn't impacted the line much is the sharp money is split pretty evenly. The line really only moves a lot when respected money comes in huge one way or the other like it did early in the AFC game game

Yup. You ever look at public bet % vs line movements sometimes. You see 80%
Of the bets coming in on the ravens but the line is moving towards the steelers. Public bets small on the ravens, the sharp money is all on the steelers

 

[Southieinnc]

I read recently that oddsmakers have abandoned the traditional 3 points being given to home teams right off the bat and now it approximates 1.5-2 points for being the home team. Maybe that has something to do with it. Additionally, I also read that Vegas has been pretty off handicapping SF this year and they’re very good against the spread. If Vegas is continually getting beat by a team they tend to swing that pendulum the other way and sometimes in recalibrating taking the line too long. For me, I think the number is so tight, your bet should be placed based on who you think wins the game outright. So if I’m concluding the Niners are the side, I take the +128 number on the Niners outright. If I’m on the Eagles, I don’t sweat betting the -2.5.

I’m not betting this game. I hate betting my own team. I don’t think I can adequately judge what accounts for my heart and what accounts for my head in my analysis of a game involving my teams.

I lost alot of money going all-in on Patriots in SB with philly. Good advice.

 

[fightinfunbags]

I lost alot of money going all-in on Patriots in SB with philly. Good advice.

@jarntt raises some fine points. Of all the teams on the board, you know your team best. I wish I was programmed to be able to take advantage but I will own the FACT that shit gets cloudy when it’s my team haha.

 

[Robotech]

Let's say the bookmaker really likes a team to win, for this example let's say the Eagles. Will they purposefully set the line so that it favors the Niners, to bring in more money on the Niners hoping they lose? Or do they always try to make the bets on each side close to equal and just make money on the vig?

From my understanding, they always try to make it close to equal. They want the consistent, reliable money from the vig.