- Thread starter
- #1
iowajerms
Well-Known Member
- 20,650
- 2,780
- 293
- Joined
- Sep 1, 2011
- Location
- Iowa, US
- Hoopla Cash
- $ 29,091.39
- Fav. Team #1
- Fav. Team #2
- Fav. Team #3
Part 1 of 2
Dolphins ahead of Patriots in projected AFC standings - NFL
By Aaron Schatz
With the NFL draft in the rearview mirror, Football Outsiders is ready to move on to projecting the 2015 season. Unfortunately, we're not yet finished building our more complicated forecast, which involves a lot of different variables and a big Monte Carlo simulation.
But when Todd McShay asked us for some projected 2015 records to build his 2015 mock draft, we put together some quick-and-dirty projections that started with Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings (found here) and then applied the usual regression toward the mean that a good or bad team sees from each unit. We then adjusted the projections to account for last year's injury numbers, major free-agent moves and a few other indicators.
Monday, I'll go through the AFC division-by-division and explain why we see certain teams moving up and down in 2015. Tuesday, we'll do the NFC. Each team has a forecasted record, and for those of you seeking a little more detail, a more exact "mean projected wins" number. We also list strength of schedule based on average projected DVOA of next year's 16 opponents, ranked from the hardest (Minnesota is No. 1) to the easiest (Atlanta).
When considering these numbers, remember that this is not the final, official Football Outsiders forecast for 2015, and some of these projections will change between now and the July publication of "Football Outsiders Almanac 2015." Also note that stat projections naturally consider a wide range of possibilities; when you take the average of so many possibilities, all teams end up grouped more towards 8-8 with very few teams listed with double-digit wins or losses. Obviously, the 2015 season will probably have some teams below 5-11 and above 12-4. Projected records may differ slightly from the mock draft article because of a change in rounding mean wins.
One thing you may notice in these projections is that the forecasts for 2015 look a lot like the standings for 2014. Yes, every team enters the season with a chance to win, but in recent years it's been very rare for teams to suddenly go from great to terrible (or vice versa) in just one season. No team has made the Super Bowl the year after having a losing record since the 2003 Carolina Panthers. Since 2006, only 10 teams have either won 10-plus games after two straight years of 10-plus losses (Cleveland 2007, Miami 2008, Kansas City 2010, Detroit 2011, Minnesota 2012 and Washington 2012), or vice versa (Minnesota 2010, Indianapolis 2011, Houston 2013 and Atlanta 2013).
AFC East
Miami Dolphins 11-5 (10.6 mean wins; SOS: 22)
New England Patriots 10-6 (10.2 mean wins, SOS: 25)
Buffalo Bills 8-8 (8.3 mean wins; SOS: 19)
New York Jets 6-10 (5.8 mean wins; SOS: 20)
Your hot sleeper Super Bowl contender for 2015 is the Miami Dolphins. The New England Patriots run away with the AFC East year after year, but our early projections suggest the defending champions will finally get some serious competition in their own division this year.
We're high on the 2015 Dolphins because the 2014 Dolphins were essentially a good team dragged down to 8-8 by dismal special teams (last in the Football Outsiders efficiency ratings) and a difficult schedule. However, special teams are less consistent from year to year than offense or defense, which means the Dolphins are likely to be a lot closer to average in 2015. And like the rest of their division, the Dolphins also get an easier schedule this year, trading the NFC North and AFC West for the NFC East and AFC South.
The Dolphins were pretty good on offense last year -- they ranked in our top 10 -- and average on defense. They did this despite having an above-average number of injuries on both sides of the ball. We don't expect Ryan Tannehill to take a leap into greatness, but the running game will still be strong (second in DVOA behind Seattle last season) and the Dolphins will now anchor their defense with perhaps the most important free agent of the offseason, Ndamukong Suh...
...unless, of course, the most important free agent of the offseason was Darrelle Revis. It's hard not to forecast some decline for the Patriots defense with Revis gone; he was a big part of why the Patriots improved from 20th in defensive DVOA in 2013 to 12th in 2014. New England also got through last season with fewer injuries than most teams; the Patriots are usually one of the league leaders in our adjusted games lost stat, so it's hard to foresee them staying as healthy again in 2015.
The offense will still be strong, and the Pats are the rare team to show consistency in special teams. They've been in the top eight of Football Outsiders' special teams ratings in eight of the past nine years, including fifth last year. Those two parts of the game are enough to keep the Patriots slightly ahead of the Dolphins in their total DVOA projection, which is why McShay's mock draft had the Dolphins picking 29th as if they were to lose the AFC Championship game in Foxborough. However, the four-game suspension earned by Tom Brady for his role in Deflategate reduces the Patriots' chances of winning their first four games enough to make the Dolphins now slight favorites to dethrone New England as AFC East champions.
That suspension also gives a small boost to the Bills, who play New England in Week 2, but not enough to overcome their general offensive problems. The Bills last year had a bad offense and a great, underrated defense. Now that Rex Ryan is in charge, they are likely to have a bad offense and a great, properly rated defense. As for Ryan's old squad, we do forecast that the return of Revis will help raise the Jets' defense back to average, but the front seven is unlikely to stay as healthy as it did a year ago. And it is hard to forecast a lot of scoring from the Jets when the quarterbacks are still subpar and veteran receiver additions (such as Brandon Marshall) don't have a strong history of turning around bad offenses.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens: 9-7 (9.0 mean wins; SOS: 14)
Pittsburgh Steelers: 8-8 (8.4 mean wins; SOS: 3)
Cincinnati Bengals: 8-8 (7.5 mean wins; SOS: 6)
Cleveland Browns: 5-11 (5.0 mean wins; SOS: 7)
The conventional narrative says that three AFC North teams rode into the 2014 playoffs thanks in part to an easy schedule built on the two South divisions. That's partially true; Pittsburgh and Baltimore ranked 29th and 30th in average DVOA of opponent last season. However, the AFC North teams were also pretty good even after adjusting for opponent strength. Baltimore finished fifth in overall DVOA, Pittsburgh was eighth and Cincinnati was 12th.
If those teams carry over that same performance, they are still going to end up with fewer wins because the schedule gets much harder this year. Instead of the South divisions, these teams get the two West divisions in 2015. They still each play one team from the AFC South, and those games actually make a big difference in the projected mean wins, because Baltimore gets to play Jacksonville while Pittsburgh and Cincinnati have to face Indianapolis and Houston, respectively. (All three of these games are home games for the AFC North teams.)
These teams are also likely to deal with more injuries this year. The Steelers had the fewest offensive adjusted games lost of any team last season and the Bengals were abnormally healthy on defense. The Ravens were actually a little healthier than average on both sides of the ball, though it was hard to tell because all the defensive injuries seemed to be grouped at a single position (cornerback).
The Browns may have a reasonable defense again, but they are handing their offense to Josh McCown, who led a Tampa offense that finished dead last in offensive DVOA in 2014.
Dolphins ahead of Patriots in projected AFC standings - NFL
By Aaron Schatz
With the NFL draft in the rearview mirror, Football Outsiders is ready to move on to projecting the 2015 season. Unfortunately, we're not yet finished building our more complicated forecast, which involves a lot of different variables and a big Monte Carlo simulation.
But when Todd McShay asked us for some projected 2015 records to build his 2015 mock draft, we put together some quick-and-dirty projections that started with Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings (found here) and then applied the usual regression toward the mean that a good or bad team sees from each unit. We then adjusted the projections to account for last year's injury numbers, major free-agent moves and a few other indicators.
Monday, I'll go through the AFC division-by-division and explain why we see certain teams moving up and down in 2015. Tuesday, we'll do the NFC. Each team has a forecasted record, and for those of you seeking a little more detail, a more exact "mean projected wins" number. We also list strength of schedule based on average projected DVOA of next year's 16 opponents, ranked from the hardest (Minnesota is No. 1) to the easiest (Atlanta).
When considering these numbers, remember that this is not the final, official Football Outsiders forecast for 2015, and some of these projections will change between now and the July publication of "Football Outsiders Almanac 2015." Also note that stat projections naturally consider a wide range of possibilities; when you take the average of so many possibilities, all teams end up grouped more towards 8-8 with very few teams listed with double-digit wins or losses. Obviously, the 2015 season will probably have some teams below 5-11 and above 12-4. Projected records may differ slightly from the mock draft article because of a change in rounding mean wins.
One thing you may notice in these projections is that the forecasts for 2015 look a lot like the standings for 2014. Yes, every team enters the season with a chance to win, but in recent years it's been very rare for teams to suddenly go from great to terrible (or vice versa) in just one season. No team has made the Super Bowl the year after having a losing record since the 2003 Carolina Panthers. Since 2006, only 10 teams have either won 10-plus games after two straight years of 10-plus losses (Cleveland 2007, Miami 2008, Kansas City 2010, Detroit 2011, Minnesota 2012 and Washington 2012), or vice versa (Minnesota 2010, Indianapolis 2011, Houston 2013 and Atlanta 2013).
AFC East
Miami Dolphins 11-5 (10.6 mean wins; SOS: 22)
New England Patriots 10-6 (10.2 mean wins, SOS: 25)
Buffalo Bills 8-8 (8.3 mean wins; SOS: 19)
New York Jets 6-10 (5.8 mean wins; SOS: 20)
Your hot sleeper Super Bowl contender for 2015 is the Miami Dolphins. The New England Patriots run away with the AFC East year after year, but our early projections suggest the defending champions will finally get some serious competition in their own division this year.
We're high on the 2015 Dolphins because the 2014 Dolphins were essentially a good team dragged down to 8-8 by dismal special teams (last in the Football Outsiders efficiency ratings) and a difficult schedule. However, special teams are less consistent from year to year than offense or defense, which means the Dolphins are likely to be a lot closer to average in 2015. And like the rest of their division, the Dolphins also get an easier schedule this year, trading the NFC North and AFC West for the NFC East and AFC South.
The Dolphins were pretty good on offense last year -- they ranked in our top 10 -- and average on defense. They did this despite having an above-average number of injuries on both sides of the ball. We don't expect Ryan Tannehill to take a leap into greatness, but the running game will still be strong (second in DVOA behind Seattle last season) and the Dolphins will now anchor their defense with perhaps the most important free agent of the offseason, Ndamukong Suh...
...unless, of course, the most important free agent of the offseason was Darrelle Revis. It's hard not to forecast some decline for the Patriots defense with Revis gone; he was a big part of why the Patriots improved from 20th in defensive DVOA in 2013 to 12th in 2014. New England also got through last season with fewer injuries than most teams; the Patriots are usually one of the league leaders in our adjusted games lost stat, so it's hard to foresee them staying as healthy again in 2015.
The offense will still be strong, and the Pats are the rare team to show consistency in special teams. They've been in the top eight of Football Outsiders' special teams ratings in eight of the past nine years, including fifth last year. Those two parts of the game are enough to keep the Patriots slightly ahead of the Dolphins in their total DVOA projection, which is why McShay's mock draft had the Dolphins picking 29th as if they were to lose the AFC Championship game in Foxborough. However, the four-game suspension earned by Tom Brady for his role in Deflategate reduces the Patriots' chances of winning their first four games enough to make the Dolphins now slight favorites to dethrone New England as AFC East champions.
That suspension also gives a small boost to the Bills, who play New England in Week 2, but not enough to overcome their general offensive problems. The Bills last year had a bad offense and a great, underrated defense. Now that Rex Ryan is in charge, they are likely to have a bad offense and a great, properly rated defense. As for Ryan's old squad, we do forecast that the return of Revis will help raise the Jets' defense back to average, but the front seven is unlikely to stay as healthy as it did a year ago. And it is hard to forecast a lot of scoring from the Jets when the quarterbacks are still subpar and veteran receiver additions (such as Brandon Marshall) don't have a strong history of turning around bad offenses.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens: 9-7 (9.0 mean wins; SOS: 14)
Pittsburgh Steelers: 8-8 (8.4 mean wins; SOS: 3)
Cincinnati Bengals: 8-8 (7.5 mean wins; SOS: 6)
Cleveland Browns: 5-11 (5.0 mean wins; SOS: 7)
The conventional narrative says that three AFC North teams rode into the 2014 playoffs thanks in part to an easy schedule built on the two South divisions. That's partially true; Pittsburgh and Baltimore ranked 29th and 30th in average DVOA of opponent last season. However, the AFC North teams were also pretty good even after adjusting for opponent strength. Baltimore finished fifth in overall DVOA, Pittsburgh was eighth and Cincinnati was 12th.
If those teams carry over that same performance, they are still going to end up with fewer wins because the schedule gets much harder this year. Instead of the South divisions, these teams get the two West divisions in 2015. They still each play one team from the AFC South, and those games actually make a big difference in the projected mean wins, because Baltimore gets to play Jacksonville while Pittsburgh and Cincinnati have to face Indianapolis and Houston, respectively. (All three of these games are home games for the AFC North teams.)
These teams are also likely to deal with more injuries this year. The Steelers had the fewest offensive adjusted games lost of any team last season and the Bengals were abnormally healthy on defense. The Ravens were actually a little healthier than average on both sides of the ball, though it was hard to tell because all the defensive injuries seemed to be grouped at a single position (cornerback).
The Browns may have a reasonable defense again, but they are handing their offense to Josh McCown, who led a Tampa offense that finished dead last in offensive DVOA in 2014.
