Priceless

[Hit-n-Run]

I've read a few articles written on the injury insurance topic. They make it sound like most teams only insure long term deals due to the exorbitant cost associated with it. The going rate seemed to be 10% of the players annual salary and sometimes only covers 50%. The insurance companies make them renewable every three or so years to re-evaluate their risk. Pitchers are more expensive to insure for the obvious reasons and previous injuries leave shoulder/ elbows excluded from coverage. So I'd assume Homer Bailey's risk factor has gone through the roof when his renewal date arrives.

On the reverse side Max Scherzer took out insurance after turning down the Tigers offer. He forked out $750k for a tax free $40M safety net in case he became injured prior to inking the $200M+ he eventually signed with the Nats.

 

[chico ruiz]

hit-n-run's post #16 underscores why it is so vital for a smaller market organization to emphasize, and continually develop, it's farm system. the results and product coming from the reds farm system? i think it is fair to say they have not been good the last 5 years. prefacing facts: 1) jocketty was fired by the st. louis cards. 2) reason: as ownership saw it, the deterioration of the cardinal farm system coupled with wally's reluctance to incorporate analytics to aid in prospect decision making and improve skill through development. does this sound familiar to anyone? thankfully, if you're a cardinals fan, dewitt was smart enough to fire wally before he took them down the path he has taken the reds. they knew what castellini apparently has not yet learned; walt jocketty is a 20th century gm in a 21st century mlb world. compare the cards, bucs, and cubs farm systems to the reds. contrast line by line, position by position, from billings to louisville, to any of the corresponding nl central rivals. this, of course, also begs the question; what is going on between billings and louisville? billy hamilton is the perfect, if not only, case study. besides being the only position player starter to come up in wallace's tenure, it must be obvious to most reds fans that something has not gone right in his development.

my conclusion: toe tag the reds and shut the drawer for 5 years or more. no way they can compete against the cards, bucs, and cubs. hoyer, huntington, and mozeliak are younger and smarter. they have all incorporated / embedded analytics to augment scouting and specific skill set need based acquisition. The reds have one guy in a cubical by the bathroom. johnu has quite correctly written that the reds need better players. ok. sure. where do they come from if your'e a mid market team? i'm just spit balling here, but i'll go out on a limb and say it's the farm system. virtually all my wally criticisms have a direct or indirect line to his mismanaging of the reds - once very good - farm system. he has put the reds so far behind the eight-ball in terms of competitive prospect talent that it will be years, maybe a decade, before the reds will recover. the importance of this cannot be overstated. i'm not advocating for more analytics / metrics to be used by the reds. it's a piece, or tool, of a larger organizational objective. jocketty could have used whatever method he thought advantageous as long as he got results. do the reds not have the human and financial resource to improve the farm system? is the money and man power being allocated elsewhere? if so, where would that be? again, if the reds farm system looked healthier and more robust, i would be a lot less critical of jocketty. it's as if he got league memos five to ten years late. you would think that walt's strength is four decades of working in baseball from oakland to cincinnati. right? rolodex after rolodex, name after name, of baseball people from every division of labor associated with the great game. scouts, coaches, players, administrators, analysts, etc etc. it would seem that walt's networking and interpersonal skills are below average. relationships built, shaped, and cultivated in trust and talent over time. point is: i don't think anyone on this board would have a problem with jocketty applying a more classic methodology, if he got positive results. the wins and losses are bad enough, but i'm writing specifically about the farm system here, because whatever process is being implemented appears to be tragically flawed. the truth is, from any objective viewpoint, the reds farm system's strength and effectiveness has been drastically reduced since 2008. to be clear, i would love it if there were benefits of the doubt i could give jocketty and his general managing of the reds organization, because -honestly- this is just depressing to think about as a dyed in the wool wishbone 'c' reds fan.

i humbly suggest that every reds fan take a long hard look at the players jocketty bestowed upon price. take a longer look at the farm system and what it has produced during wally's tenure. Not one drafted or acquired prospect has come up through the system (i'm specifying 'coming up through the system' here) that is a above average mlb player since walt has been in charge. do a comparison of the mets and cardinals october rosters. both teams signed and developed 15 players on their 25 man rosters. be mindful of those 15 player's quality. look at the chronology of those signings and how / why they were acquired. then, if you really want to become a disillusioned reds fan, look at what the reds / jocketty have done in the same 7 year time period. i'm not sure that chapman qualifies as a prospect in the truest sense, and leake came straight to the big club. take a look at how huntington pieced together his team. take a look at the bucs salary spread sheet compared to the reds. 25 separate players, with varying skills and strengths, that fit together, by design, to form a complete winning team. speed, defense, and pitching. and btw, we're are watching, once again, that is exactly what wins championships. the concept of the typical mlb outfielder has changed. power has been replaced with contact, speed, and defense. how do the bucs find and nurture raw talents like marte and polanco? what did they do for caminero that's made him so good out of the bullpen? is ray searage a pitching coach rain man? maybe. liriano and melancon are proof positive they're doing something right. i saw cervelli and melancon early in their careers, and even i, with my limited vision, could see they were going to be successful mlb players. you could see -beyond their raw talent- they had a inner competitive drive to be as good as possible. are the pirates just lucky, or did they implement a organizational scheme to target specific talent to fill in specific weaknesses and simultaneously create depth with prospect acquisition? they have diverse players with the ability to play several different positions. they have meadows, bell, taillon, hanson, and glasgow coming soon. the cubs have so many up and coming prospects it's hard to keep track of them all. the cardinals organization will continue to do what they do.

the burning question i have: at what point does this board, reds fan base, and reds media start to be candid with themselves about the state of this organization, and how it got where it is? it's not arrogance, fodder, or one of the mysteries of the universe. the reds have failed miserably to develop talent within since walter was named gm. it is a statement of fact that is rarely, if ever, discussed or written about by the reds media. and the the 2015 mlb reality is a small or mid market team can not sustain competitiveness without a vital farm system.

 

[chico ruiz]

please allow me one more paragraph of animus, because i'm more pissed than i thought. the reds have no quality of organizational depth. the farm system was / is barren. so barren, in fact, that last off-season wally had to sign josh satin, ivan dejesus, irving falu, brennan boesch, nate adcock, jose mijares, paul maholm, jason marquis, kevin gregg, and more i've forgotten, to minor league contracts to fill out a competitive training camp. yes, veteran journeymen are routinely invited to mlb camps. but, walt stockpiled them like other mid-market clubs stockpile prospects. wally did what the 1963 ny mets or washington senators did. just field a ball club they hope won't be a complete embarrassment. expansion teams put together rosters like this because they have to. wally has done it willingly and, sadly, it is a complete embarrassment. he has -quite literally- taken the oldest most storied franchise in the history of professional baseball and turned into a 2nd or 3rd year expansion team. the '99' devil rays won more games. Jason marquis? Kevin Gregg? etc etc. The reds prospect depth is so thin, after 8 years of wally, that the reds had to start sampson, smith, and lorenzen for a significant part of the season. desclafani was their ace with an era of 4. lamb and finnegan - who were acquired in the cueto trade - became starters almost immediately upon landing @ cvg. are the drafts and / or prospect acquisition just dumb luck? or, are other teams doing a better, more thorough, job of researching, appraising, and developing ?

 

[JohnU]

There are a ton of moving parts this winter with a free agency list that looks like a phone directory.

So far as I can tell so far, the top names for most teams are still under contract which leaves a zillion Skip Schumakers out there to be had. I think the teams that sign these guys will be a pretty good yardstick of where the farm systems are. One Zobrist for every five Negrons. If you are signing a Negron, you should not need a Zobrist.

I'd guess the Reds are working on their goal-line defense already. I would like to believe that their primary goals are to find a left fielder and a workable bullpen. I would also point out that they have had this as a primary goal since 2008.

I also happen to think that the primary goal goes much deeper than that. Yeah, I like the comparison to the 1963 Mets ... though when I look across the field, I don't see that -- player for player -- that the Reds are a 98-loss team. With that pitching staff, they are closer to a 110-loss team, and that's sort of sad considering they've had a number of years to fix the glaring problems and have chosen to let them mature on their own. Cabbage is cabbage until it spoils. It's still cabbage.

There's an ongoing belief in followers of low-market franchises that the well will eventually go dry and they will revert back to a Twins-like existence. The problem in the NL-C is that St. Louis and Chicago are NOT low-market franchises. The Parrots may eventually slide back to join the Reds where they were in 2007. I need to pay attention to what Craig Counsell is doing in Brewland. He's got more control than just a field manager.

Cincy needs to play smarter than it has. The movement in that direction needs to be forceful and planned. The problem with that is simple: It's hard to fool the smart GMs now. If they don't have to deal from a payroll agenda, they won't get caught with a 30-year-old horse with a 3-year-old blanket.

The emergence of the Astros, Parrots and Royals was a slow work in progress. They harvested their early draft picks wisely. Yeah, that's a gamble. I could not begin to say how one is supposed to get it right. I know that signing hitters who have no glove is probably going to happen a lot now. Kyle Schwarber is the latest. Reds had Alonso and Francisco as examples. To some end, so is Kris Bryant.

Going Latin? Ah, you can keep Yoenis and Yasiel and I will raise you one Raisel. The Cubans can play and they know it. If the W.S. didn't get the Dominicans even wetter in the undies, I can't say what will -- the Royals top pitchers are from Hispaniola!

We know for sure the Reds won't go heavy into the F.A. market. That's frankly a clusterfuck right now.

But I concur with Chico on this point: It can't be fixed this year or next. Best bet is to convert those 110-loss seasons into a bunch of really good prospects. The trick is to identify them, sign them and stop pretending that Skip Schumaker is the bridge to the future.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Well, the Reds have won 5 World Series as the oldest MLB team. Sounds low, but actually among the most in MLB.

So, winning it all is RARE, at least since the Ruth-Dimaggio-Mantle Yankees.

Here's one for you- in 2015, the Reds finished last. Since the last time that happened, EVERY team in MLB, NFL, NBA and NHL had also finished last at least once. Strange, but true.

I agree the Reds aren't what they should be. I just don't think it's unusual incompetence that caused it, nor do I think it's a plan. It;s cyclic. Like the stock market and fan support.

 

[Redsfan1507]

The farm..is where it all starts. You can't feed people, or MLB teams, without one.

The economics is always a problem though- and trying too hard to give people what they want often becomes part of the problem. People always want more, but the more they have, the more they seem to waste, and the more it costs, too. Sometimes, there is no more.

Is Votto worth $250 M ? In today's MLB value system, probably. Bailey worth half that ? Not if he's not healthy. The bigger issue is, with 5 players making half the payroll, you don't have enough payroll to spend on the other 20 players on the roster to "compete"...and that's where the Reds are. Bring up more MLB minimum salary farmhands the answer ? Maybe, until they start producing and want a 9 figure contract too.

All the planets, talent and payroll wise, have to align, and they don't stay aligned very long. The Reds missed their chance with a myriad of fumbled opportunities a few years back, and have to wait on re-alignment again. It took about 20 years last time. I don't think they will shorten than by 20 years this time either.