Post Season QB Production for Peyton and Cam

[Balljim55]

Denver and Carolina both have played against good Ds in the playoffs with Pittsburgh and NE for Denver and Seattle and Arizona for Carolina. Both have played their two games at home. Carolina has a better run game and tight end and Denver has a better set of receivers. Here are the QB lines for the playoffs so far:

Cam 35/50 (70%) 496 yds 3 TDs 1 pic 113.4 passer rating

Peyton 36/69 (55%) 398 yds 2 TDs 0 pick 81.7 passer rating

How much does this play into the outcome? I realize there is a wave of sentiment for Peyton to go out on top and I realize there are plenty of Cam haters but I think these numbers are pretty telling.

 

[Broncos6482]

QB play matters very little to the Broncos right now. The key for Manning will be to not turn the ball over. If he manages that, the defense will keep it close and Denver will have a good chance to win. If he throws a couple of picks, though, the game could get ugly quickly.

 

[Used 2 B Hu]

If he throws a couple of picks, though, the game could get ugly quickly.

I think there is a distinct possibility that Manning winds up -2 in the INT department. It may not hurt them with that defense; Carolina didn't exactly score a ton of points off turnovers against Arizona.

 

[The Oldtimer]

Denver and Carolina both have played against good Ds in the playoffs with Pittsburgh and NE for Denver and Seattle and Arizona for Carolina. Both have played their two games at home. Carolina has a better run game and tight end and Denver has a better set of receivers. Here are the QB lines for the playoffs so far:

Cam 35/50 (70%) 496 yds 3 TDs 1 pic 113.4 passer rating

Peyton 36/69 (55%) 398 yds 2 TDs 0 pick 81.7 passer rating

How much does this play into the outcome? I realize there is a wave of sentiment for Peyton to go out on top and I realize there are plenty of Cam haters but I think these numbers are pretty telling.

Good comment, the only thing I would question is, I think Denver has the better run game and Denver has the better CB's.

 

[sonnyblack65]

Good comment, the only thing I would question is, I think Denver has the better run game and Denver has the better CB's.

Not sure about the run game OT they have rushed for over 100 yards in I believe 21 straight games. Stewart is a beast

 

[cdumler7]

Obviously the QB's are going to be the talk of the town for the next 2 weeks. To me just like this last week it comes down more to whose defense makes more plays. Cam has been awesome all season long but then again he hasn't played a defense quite like the Broncos with the speed from top to bottom that he will see. The Broncos are one of those few units that is just as good against the pass as they are against the run. So if the Broncos can frustrate him like they did Tom Brady then they stand a chance. Same with Manning though of if you hit him early and often you can get in his head and he will get happy feet throwing into some very bad situations.

I will say just an interesting stat. The Broncos so far in the playoffs have played the 2nd and 3rd best team at getting sacks this season in Pitt and New England only behind the Broncos. The Panthers OL so far has only played the 17th and 20th ranked sack team in the league. They could be in for a rude awakening of just how fast these guys can turn the corner and get after Cam.

 

[The Oldtimer]

Not sure about the run game OT they have rushed for over 100 yards in I believe 21 straight games. Stewart is a beast

Yeah I agree Stewart (989 yrds) is a beast , but Denver has two RB's in Hilman (863 yrds) and Anderson (720 yrds). Just my opinion. I guess it will depend on what defense can stop the running game. I think Denver has a good shot at winning the game, but they have to put pressure on Cam, like they did Brady. I really like Denver's defense.

 

[Used 2 B Hu]

Not sure about the run game OT they have rushed for over 100 yards in I believe 21 straight games. Stewart is a beast

It's up to like 28 or 29 now. That was a big thing before the Divisional game w/ Seattle, which had not allowed a team to rush for 100 in about as many games.

If Carolina breaks a hundy in this game, Cam will probably have about half of them.

 

[Balljim55]

Obviously the QB's are going to be the talk of the town for the next 2 weeks. To me just like this last week it comes down more to whose defense makes more plays. Cam has been awesome all season long but then again he hasn't played a defense quite like the Broncos with the speed from top to bottom that he will see. The Broncos are one of those few units that is just as good against the pass as they are against the run. So if the Broncos can frustrate him like they did Tom Brady then they stand a chance. Same with Manning though of if you hit him early and often you can get in his head and he will get happy feet throwing into some very bad situations.

I will say just an interesting stat. The Broncos so far in the playoffs have played the 2nd and 3rd best team at getting sacks this season in Pitt and New England only behind the Broncos. The Panthers OL so far has only played the 17th and 20th ranked sack team in the league. They could be in for a rude awakening of just how fast these guys can turn the corner and get after Cam.

I get what you are saying, but in the Pats game you guys did not have to concern yourselves with the run at all, so you guys could just pin your ears back and go. With the Panthers you will have to play the run plus you will be dealing with a QB who handles pressure pretty well. Having said that, this will definitely be a big test for Cam.

 

[cdumler7]

I get what you are saying, but in the Pats game you guys did not have to concern yourselves with the run at all, so you guys could just pin your ears back and go. With the Panthers you will have to play the run plus you will be dealing with a QB who handles pressure pretty well. Having said that, this will definitely be a big test for Cam.

Oh I agree this is a tougher test because of the duel threat by that offense. I will say though that the Panthers love to push the ball down the field in the passing game meaning Cam has to stand in the pocket just that little bit longer. Brady was working to get the ball out in 1.5 seconds. Cam is more the 7 step drop sit back behind a very good OL and wait for somebody to get open 15 or more yards down the field. To me the key for the Broncos will be getting the Panthers into 3rd and long situations so they can pin their ears back and go after Cam. 1st down stuffing the run will be a huge indicator of how this game will go in my opinion.

 

[Balljim55]

Oh I agree this is a tougher test because of the duel threat by that offense. I will say though that the Panthers love to push the ball down the field in the passing game meaning Cam has to stand in the pocket just that little bit longer. Brady was working to get the ball out in 1.5 seconds. Cam is more the 7 step drop sit back behind a very good OL and wait for somebody to get open 15 or more yards down the field. To me the key for the Broncos will be getting the Panthers into 3rd and long situations so they can pin their ears back and go after Cam. 1st down stuffing the run will be a huge indicator of how this game will go in my opinion.

you are right on all accounts @cdumler7 He does prefer to make impact throws down the field and has no fear of standing in the pocket. Our O-line has done a very good job of keeping the pocket in tact around him but we have not seen a pass rush like yours yet.

 

[cdumler7]

you are right on all accounts @cdumler7 He does prefer to make impact throws down the field and has no fear of standing in the pocket. Our O-line has done a very good job of keeping the pocket in tact around him but we have not seen a pass rush like yours yet.

As with most big games it will be a game won in the trenches. I've watched now 3 of the Panthers games this week and every one of them especially the middle of that OL is just down right impressive of making a nice pocket for Cam to just hang out in. I'm going to have to go back and watch the Houston game now though as that was the best pass rush you guys went against this past year as they were 5th in sacks. Cam did struggle some that game passing wise when looking at the box score so going to have to see what Houston did to make him a bit uncomfortable.

 

[The Oldtimer]

It's up to like 28 or 29 now. That was a big thing before the Divisional game w/ Seattle, which had not allowed a team to rush for 100 in about as many games.

If Carolina breaks a hundy in this game, Cam will probably have about half of them.

Denver will need to put pressure on Cam and keep him contained in the pocket. That will be easier said than done.

 

[ducky]

I will say just an interesting stat. The Broncos so far in the playoffs have played the 2nd and 3rd best team at getting sacks this season in Pitt and New England only behind the Broncos. The Panthers OL so far has only played the 17th and 20th ranked sack team in the league. They could be in for a rude awakening of just how fast these guys can turn the corner and get after Cam.

If Ware and Miller pin their ears back and try and get upfield like they do on a normal Sunday, Cam will run for 150+.

Denver coaches at practice these next two weeks will be preaching containment rather than pressure. That's the danger of Cam. Denver's only shot IMO is to turn Cam into a pocket passer, not let him use his legs to buy a ton of time and force some bad throws that force turnovers. Wade Phillips has to be having a crisis of identity as this will be the 2nd week in a row where he can't send the house like he likes to.

Denver's strength: defensive pressure is completely nullified by how Carolina plays IMO. There will be a 3rd and long or two when Denver gets to do what they do so well.....but for the most part Miller and Ware are going to be need to taking on the OL in front of them rather than running around them like they usually do.

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In the last 9 games, Carolina has averaged over 35 points a game. Denver has a great D, but I don't think any D is good enough to hold this Carolina offense with all they do under 20 points without creating a lot of turnovers.

And without turnovers, I don't know how that Denver O scores 20+ points.

Denver's Achilles heal this entire season more than the QB has been OL play. Short and Star are going to eat that interior Denver OL for lunch. So far in the playoffs against completely inferior front 7's in Pitt and NE, Denver has been unable to consistently run the football averaging a measly 3.3 ypc in the playoffs thus far. And we know that Manning isn't going to come out and put up 300+ yards. Add those two things together and we know Denver is not going to score a lot unless they are given great field position.

This is just an overall bad matchup for Denver. They really are going to need Carolina to come out flat IMO. But that is ENTIRELY possible. Cam hasn't done it as much as he has in the past but he still makes throws on occasion that make you scratch your head.

Overall if they play this SB 100 times, Carolina is going to win 80+ of them IMO. But as Eli's '07 Giant's proved in the SB, it only takes one good performance and the other team coming out flat to bring home the trophy.

 

[cdumler7]

If Ware and Miller pin their ears back and try and get upfield like they do on a normal Sunday, Cam will run for 150+.

Denver coaches at practice these next two weeks will be preaching containment rather than pressure. That's the danger of Cam. Denver's only shot IMO is to turn Cam into a pocket passer, not let him use his legs to buy a ton of time and force some bad throws that force turnovers. Wade Phillips has to be having a crisis of identity as this will be the 2nd week in a row where he can't send the house like he likes to.

Denver's strength: defensive pressure is completely nullified by how Carolina plays IMO. There will be a 3rd and long or two when Denver gets to do what they do so well.....but for the most part Miller and Ware are going to be need to taking on the OL in front of them rather than running around them like they usually do.

...

In the last 9 games, Carolina has averaged over 35 points a game. Denver has a great D, but I don't think any D is good enough to hold this Carolina offense with all they do under 20 points without creating a lot of turnovers.

And without turnovers, I don't know how that Denver O scores 20+ points.

Denver's Achilles heal this entire season more than the QB has been OL play. Short and Star are going to eat that interior Denver OL for lunch. So far in the playoffs against completely inferior front 7's in Pitt and NE, Denver has been unable to consistently run the football averaging a measly 3.3 ypc in the playoffs thus far. And we know that Manning isn't going to come out and put up 300+ yards. Add those two things together and we know Denver is not going to score a lot unless they are given great field position.

This is just an overall bad matchup for Denver. They really are going to need Carolina to come out flat IMO. But that is ENTIRELY possible. Cam hasn't done it as much as he has in the past but he still makes throws on occasion that make you scratch your head.

Overall if they play this SB 100 times, Carolina is going to win 80+ of them IMO. But as Eli's '07 Giant's proved in the SB, it only takes one good performance and the other team coming out flat to bring home the trophy.

Not sure I completely agree that this is a bad match up. Defensively speaking I think the Broncos are one of the few teams that really can contain Cam. They have shown this year that they can change how they do defense and still have great success. Against Brady of course it is stick 5 in the box, have your 3-tech players play a bit wider so that Von and Ware can get one-on-one match ups, and cut off those quick slant patterns forcing Brady to have to hold onto the ball a half second longer. Now go back and watch their game against the Packers. People played the Packers completely different after the Broncos dismantled them in week 7 or 8. They played that more contain then pursue style because they knew they had great coverage on the back side. That is the big thing with the broncos is they can play Man Coverage across the board and still win those match ups. It is why I actually do think the Broncos will bring pressure up the middle in this one right into Cam's face trying to force him into some mistakes. Now Cam is probably the best thrower in the league when throwing off his back leg because he can still get plenty of power on those throws but the issue becomes accuracy. Can he still be accurate?

As for the Broncos offense yeah this is a bad match up but wouldn't about every team they play be a bad match up because well offensively they have been inconsistent at best. The one good thing they have actually had is that the 3 middle OL guys have actually done a decent job of forming a nice pocket for the QB to step into. To me this game will come down to the Broncos 2nd and 3rd WR winning their battles for the Broncos to have a decent offense. Josh Norman most likely shuts down DT. So it will be up to Sanders and Fowler/Latimer to step up their game for this one and go out and make a big play in my opinion. If they can hit a few of those passes early on maybe it softens things up for the run game to have some success. I don't expect them to rush for 150 yards but if they can get to that 100 or more rushing yards then the Broncos in my opinion stand a good chance.

I would also say maybe the biggest thing the Broncos have working for them is the emotional advantage. Players throughout these playoffs have said they are playing their butts off to go win this for Manning and Ware. We have seen in the past when such great leaders of teams are on their way out other players who respect the heck out of them do everything possible to up their game.

Honestly I have no clue how this game will go. I definitely see why so many people are picking the Panthers to win this game. They have the more all-around team in this game and the best QB of this past season at the helm. Most everything points to them being the victor but I also know this Bronco team has been one that has fought and clawed above the odds all season long. They actually set a record for most wins by 7 or less points. They keep battling to the end and that kind of heart doesn't usually get measured on paper. I keep listening to the past Bronco players from the 97-98 Super Bowl winning teams and they keep saying talking to these players they see that same drive coming from them. Have to remember that 97 team were the biggest Super Bowl underdogs in NFL history and they found a way to gut one out.

 

[ducky]

Josh Norman most likely shuts down DT.

Man the way DT has looked I am pretty sure I would have Norman on Sanders instead of Thomas. Guy just hasn't looked as good this year more often than not than what we have seen in the past.

 

[cdumler7]

Man the way DT has looked I am pretty sure I would have Norman on Sanders instead of Thomas. Guy just hasn't looked as good this year more often than not than what we have seen in the past.

Oh I agree. To me Sanders is our 1st down guy. When we need a big catch that is where Manning goes almost every time so to me then I would stick my best Corner there to force Manning to have to depend on somebody else to make the big catch. DT is a guy though that can show up for 1 game and have a big day. Broncos are going to need him to really step up in this one if they stand a chance.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

QB play matters very little to the Broncos right now. The key for Manning will be to not turn the ball over. If he manages that, the defense will keep it close and Denver will have a good chance to win. If he throws a couple of picks, though, the game could get ugly quickly.

I get you, this isn't the ' Broncos, but QB play matters in every game...it is a DEF led team now, I think Peyton is smart enough to realize that, but aside from not turning it over...the DEN OFC has to occupy snaps in this game.

The Broncos will need some sustained drives to keep the DEF fresh and of course score some points...I like 24 to hold up for either team...CAR is a different animal on OFC...it's not all that complex, but they are so varied...i-formation, triple option, read option, play action, straight drop, shot gun...don't want to be facing that coming off 3 and out too many times.

 

[Broncos6482]

Man the way DT has looked I am pretty sure I would have Norman on Sanders instead of Thomas. Guy just hasn't looked as good this year more often than not than what we have seen in the past.

He has his drops problems but he still caught over 100 passes and is extremely dangerous. And he had a huge game in the last Super Bowl. If the Panthers did put Norman on Sanders, I'd expect DT to go off again.

 

[cdumler7]

I get you, this isn't the ' Broncos, but QB play matters in every game...it is a DEF led team now, I think Peyton is smart enough to realize that, but aside from not turning it over...the DEN OFC has to occupy snaps in this game.

The Broncos will need some sustained drives to keep the DEF fresh and of course score some points...I like 24 to hold up for either team...CAR is a different animal on OFC...it's not all that complex, but they are so varied...i-formation, triple option, read option, play action, straight drop, shot gun...don't want to be facing that coming off 3 and out too many times.

I think what Broncos6482 is saying is that so far what we have seen from the Broncos is that we don't need our QB to go out and win the game. We need them to manage the game, pick up some first downs, and more than anything not turn the ball over. If the Broncos can contain Cam Newton though can they say the same thing? He has been such a huge part of their offensive success and let's say the Broncos cause him to have a mediocre game...Can the Panthers overcome that? I know people keep talking about how this match up reminds them of the last Broncos Super Bowl with the Broncos being so outmatched but to me it is actually the reverse of the Panthers being so dependent on their QB to really go out and win some of these games just like the Broncos depended on Manning have a great game every week. Now the Panthers have a lot better and healthier defense than the Broncos did in 2013 but they have also shown they can win just about every way possible this year not depending on the QB to do sometimes even jack squat to win games.