Odds of getting a perfect bracket for March Madness

[iowajerms]

 

[Arizona_Sting]

 

[CatsTopPac]

What was all that "one in nine-quintillion talk?????"

 

[iowajerms]

What was all that "one in nine-quintillion talk?????"

I wonder how long it took that guy to memorize that #.

 

[JDM]

I'm kind of disappointed. That math is easy and he breezed past how he approached the more reasonable number (still fairly simple statistics, but I'm curious what assumptions he made. Did he assume some games don't need to be predicted or did he assume knowing basketball gave you the ability to guess with X% certainty?)

 

[Shanemansj13]

Impossible.

 

[iowajerms]

I'm kind of disappointed. That math is easy and he breezed past how he approached the more reasonable number (still fairly simple statistics, but I'm curious what assumptions he made. Did he assume some games don't need to be predicted or did he assume knowing basketball gave you the ability to guess with X% certainty?)

The big # gives #16 seed a chance to win the entire thing. #16 has never won in the NCAA Tournament, so anyone that knows anything about March Madness, that is it.

That means, #16 seed doesn't get the 2 choices for the 2nd game, 3rd game, 4th game, and 5th game,
and the #1 seed just gets the 1 choice for the 1st game

 

[iowajerms]

Impossible.

You continue saying that when I am on the cover of Forbes for accepting the big fat check by Warren Buffet.

 

[JDM]

The big # gives #16 seed a chance to win the entire thing. #16 has never won in the NCAA Tournament, so anyone that knows anything about March Madness, that is it.

That means, #16 seed doesn't get the 2 choices for the 2nd game, 3rd game, 4th game, and 5th game,
and the #1 seed just gets the 1 choice for the 1st game

I don't think you understand the math enough to understand what I am asking.

 

[The Derski]

You have a better chance of railing Megan Fox while holding the winning lottery ticket.

 

[CatsTopPac]

I wonder how long it took that guy to memorize that #.

Well, he is a mathematician, so maybe he just memorized that number. But I think you can see him looking off camera, so I think it was already written, and he just copied.

 

[CatsTopPac]

I don't think you understand the math enough to understand what I am asking.

Nah, I think his answer is pretty accurate. He explained it. Knowing CBB, you know that a 16 has never beaten a 1, and that a 15 almost never beats a 2. So knowing that you don't have to factor those possibilities in, he just excluded those possible games along the way in his math. That brings the probability down to 128b.

So in short, he assumes that knowing basketball means that you don't have to guess on some of the games. You can leave out the possible brackets of any 15 or 16 seeds winning a game, let alone picking the brackets where they win it all, etc.

 

[JDM]

From what he stated in that video, there are several different ways to approach the math. Simply excluding games is a sloppy approach and I think his actual approach is better than that.

 

[Shanemansj13]

You continue saying that when I am on the cover of Forbes for accepting the big fat check by Warren Buffet.

*Fills out bracket, loses first pick he makes

 

[CatsTopPac]

I'm just saying that at the 2:00 mark, he says that if you know CBB and know that a 16 has never beaten a 1, and that 15 rarely ever beats a two, then if you know CBB, it's more like 1 in 128b.

By the way, there is only one number that equals the most possibilities of filling out a bracket, and it's 2 to the 63rd power. The math is pretty simple. If you want to debate the exact number excluding any of the 16 or 15 seeds winning a game (and getting 128b), then that's fair.

Other than that, it's pretty clear cut.

 

[iowajerms]

*Fills out bracket, loses first pick he makes

Come on, give me a little more credit than that. It will be the 5th pick I make.

 

[dcZONAfan]

What the hell are you guys talking about???

WHO ARE YOU TALKING TO??

 

[JDM]

I'm just saying that at the 2:00 mark, he says that if you know CBB and know that a 16 has never beaten a 1, and that 15 rarely ever beats a two, then if you know CBB, it's more like 1 in 128b.

By the way, there is only one number that calculates the most possibilities of filling out a bracket, and it's 2 to the 63rd power. The math is pretty simple. If you want to debate the exact number excluding any of the 16 or 15 seeds winning a game (and getting 128b), then that's fair.

Other than that, it's pretty clear cut.

I know the math background. I am simply disappointed he did not show how he approached the actually mathematically interesting portion.

 

[JDM]

For example, one way to get that estimate is to make the assumption that you can predict 2 of 3 games accurately. To get his estimate simply by excluding games, you'd have to exclude over 25 games. That's really high.

I don't think he took either of those approaches. His actual approach was likely more complex.

 

[CatsTopPac]

For example, one way to get that estimate is to make the assumption that you can predict 2 of 3 games accurately. To get his estimate simply by excluding games, you'd have to exclude over 25 games. That's really high.

I don't think he took either of those approaches. His actual approach was likely more complex.

Nah, based on what he said, I have to believe that's exactly what he did. That's how it went from nine quintillion to 128b. The games he's saying are gimmes are the 15 and 16 seeds not winning a single game. That takes away a bunch of bracket possibilities of them winning a game in any of them.