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richig07
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I thought this was an interesting read.
Bullet Points
- There were 506 two-point conversion attempts over the past 7 seasons.
- 48.8% were successful. That number (48%) has (roughly) maintained since the two-point option was introduced.
- Teams succeed a good deal more when running the ball (63.6%) as opposed to throwing (46.4%). Therefore, running more often would probably raise two-point conversion rates.
- Here is a chart of all 506 of those plays categorized
- If you take goal line personnel passes (31%) and roll-out passes (32%) out of the data set, the conversion rates would be raised from 247/506 (48.8%) up to 213/399 (53.4%). If NFL teams simply eliminated these two play calls from their two point conversion arsenal, their conversion rates would rise 4.5%.
- The most successful play call is a QB draw. Admittedly the sample size is not large. The QB draw was 11 for 13 (85%) over this time frame. Draws using RB's account for the additional two unsuccessful draw calls on the chart.
Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, and Kirk Cousins all converted on QB draws. Indicating that you may not necessarily have to use an athletic QB to convert on a QB draw for a two-point conversion.
- The "other" category on the chart accounts for small sample size plays. Which (from what I can surmise) means that less than 15 of them transpired over 7 years. These are mostly things like trick plays, shield plays, throwback passes, etc. These plays actually saw a good amount of success. The only one that didn't was a standard "play action pass" where teams were 5/13.
- In the link there's charts for success with each individual route run and it even gets into the defensive aspect of it. You can click on it and see that if you want. I'm not going to bother pasting those in here.
rileykolstefootball.com/2018/07/08/two-point-study/
TL;DR = Run the ball more. Run designed QB runs more (even if your QB is a slow white dude). Stop passing out of jumbo, stop play action and stop rolling out your QB. Trick plays aren't stupid.
Bullet Points
- There were 506 two-point conversion attempts over the past 7 seasons.
- 48.8% were successful. That number (48%) has (roughly) maintained since the two-point option was introduced.
- Teams succeed a good deal more when running the ball (63.6%) as opposed to throwing (46.4%). Therefore, running more often would probably raise two-point conversion rates.
- Here is a chart of all 506 of those plays categorized
- If you take goal line personnel passes (31%) and roll-out passes (32%) out of the data set, the conversion rates would be raised from 247/506 (48.8%) up to 213/399 (53.4%). If NFL teams simply eliminated these two play calls from their two point conversion arsenal, their conversion rates would rise 4.5%.
- The most successful play call is a QB draw. Admittedly the sample size is not large. The QB draw was 11 for 13 (85%) over this time frame. Draws using RB's account for the additional two unsuccessful draw calls on the chart.
Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, and Kirk Cousins all converted on QB draws. Indicating that you may not necessarily have to use an athletic QB to convert on a QB draw for a two-point conversion.
- The "other" category on the chart accounts for small sample size plays. Which (from what I can surmise) means that less than 15 of them transpired over 7 years. These are mostly things like trick plays, shield plays, throwback passes, etc. These plays actually saw a good amount of success. The only one that didn't was a standard "play action pass" where teams were 5/13.
- In the link there's charts for success with each individual route run and it even gets into the defensive aspect of it. You can click on it and see that if you want. I'm not going to bother pasting those in here.
rileykolstefootball.com/2018/07/08/two-point-study/
TL;DR = Run the ball more. Run designed QB runs more (even if your QB is a slow white dude). Stop passing out of jumbo, stop play action and stop rolling out your QB. Trick plays aren't stupid.
