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Be Weary of Query
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I know it’s cool to be all down and pessimistic about our band of “not quite good enoughs with mediocre coaching” in stripes (and with good reason) but I still want to believe. I want to believe that one year I can look forward to hanging up Super Bowl winning Bengal paraphernalia in my basement. To having my dedication to this franchise payoff in some tangible way. The Draft is the time in which you can optimistically look forward to fresh faces that still have their optimism intact and have yet to have that drained from them…like many of us here. With that prelude, I bring you my one month away from one of my favorite events on the NFL calendar. It’s my Mock Draft 2017…and it is subject to a revision or two prior to April 27th.
Here it be:
1st round – 9th overall pick: Reuben Foster (LB) Alabama
2011 was the last time the Bengals picked in the top ten. A.J. Green turned out nicely. At #4 overall. For more parallels for this pick, in 2008 the Bengals selected with the 9th overall pick a LB out of USC in Keith Rivers. That didn’t turn out nicely. Foster is not Keith Rivers in that he looks and acts the part. I don’t like how he came off at the Combine but exceptions are made if you can play a sport at the highest of levels. And obviously Mike Brown and co. don’t care (see Jones, Adam). Foster is an immediate impact player (which is at the top of the criteria list for me when picking in the upper half of the 1st round). Sideline to sideline talent and 1st team All-American. Butkus Award winner. He’s got attitude and play making ability. Can cover. Easily the best player in the draft at this position group. Even with the FA signing of Minter, the Bengals still take him here. This group has been a long overdue for a major revamp. Add him with Burfcit and you got something. He could start out on the Strong side (Dansby’s spot) and eventually slide to the middle if Minter flames out or just flat out is better. Vigil and Rey rotate in depending on situation. This pick could also be DE if there is a panic run on QB’s ahead of us. WR is always an option but I am going with Foster as the BPA here.
2nd round – 41st overall pick: Alvin Kamara (RB) Tennessee
Jeremy Hill has been declining since his rookie year. He is also entering the last year of his rookie contract. Giovani Bernard is coming off of a torn ACL so who knows what he will be in 2017. Rex Burkhead is a Patriot. The rest of the group is: 100 year old Cedric Peerman and undrafted Tra Carson. You cool with that? Me neither. Kamara was a highly productive back at Tennessee in limited carries out of the backfield. He can catch making him valuable as the O-line is what it is and Dalton is going to have to rely even more on getting the ball out quick. Top combine performer in vertical and broad jump. If someone like McCaffrey slides I would be all over that but I think that’s wishful thinking. Running back is a definite need pick and I think you go with Kamara here.
3rd round – 73rd overall pick: Roderick Johnson (OT) Florida State
I don’t need to add a lot of words about how this season will hinge on Cedric Ogbuehi and if he can find the talent that made him the Bengals 1st round pick in 2015. Their complete mismanagement of the Whitworth situation and Ced’s complete ineptitude when in the starting lineup in ’16 will put him under the microscope more so than any other player in’17. This is a pick that will be the disaster backup plan and is scary in that if Ogbuehi falls on his face again leading to a benching, you are relying on a 3rd round rookie to take over. Thing is, this is a terrible draft for OT. Especially LT. In a perfect world the Bengals will trade back in the 1st round (or up?!) and take Ryan Ramczyk out of Wisconsin in the 20's. Maybe an A.J. McCarron trade happens between now and then? Regardless, there is no one on the roster right now to backup Ced…and that is scary. Johnson is a 6’7” with 31 straight starts at LT for Florida State. There isn’t a FA savior coming (as mentioned, he’s in L.A.) and the Bengals need to have someone in the pipeline in case Ogbuehi turns out to be the biggest 1st round bust in recent memory. They forced themselves into putting all their eggs in his basket, at least for 2017.
4th round – 116th overall pick: Tanoh Kpassagnon (DE) Villanova
Might be a little late for some to get a DE but this is what I’ve got for now. Michael Johnson’s second stint can safely be categorized as a disappointment. This guy is just as tall at 6’7” and has a little more weight to him. He is…wait for it…a project and you know the Bengals just can’t help themselves in that regard! He is probably their version of Margus Hunt and Marvin Lewis’ pride might not be able to help not taking this raw prospect in hopes of molding him into something since they failed miserably with Hunt. I am not completely sold on this pick and would prefer a more pro ready player at this spot. For the 4th round though, it’s okay. For now. Michael Johnson gets this year to get it right because I doubt the team can justify keeping him in ’18 if his production remains the same with his salary at $4.55 million…which is the last year he is under contract.
4th round – 138th overall pick: Corn Elder (CB) University of Miami (FL)
The Bengals seemingly will keep picking CB after CB until the end of time. It’s fine and I get it. They just need to be better at it. Kirkpatrick finally came around and was rewarded with a big time contract and is here until 2021. He’s the #1, like it or not. William Jackson III has the opportunity to start on the other side with Pacman’s situation being in flux. Even if Jones is on the roster, he is on the wrong side of 30 with a big drop in production last year. He is probably playing on his last contract with the team (free agent after ’18). Dennard is a bust to this point. Josh Shaw is a tweener that is probably best suited long term as a Safety. Behind them is questionable talent. Elder can project in as a nickelback and perhaps a return guy. At worst, he can be a gunner on special teams! Although we usually reserve that for our first round picks. He also has some experience returning punts/kicks.
5th round – 153rd overall pick: Jake Butt (TE) Michigan
Injury pushes him down to this spot. He might go higher than this but this is where I have him. Eifert is one mean look from being on IR and is entering his contract year. If his brittle body doesn’t hold up then I find it very hard to justify throwing money at him in spite of him being an enormous weapon for Dalton. You can’t argue that the team is markedly better with him on the field. However, that’s the rub. Can’t rely on him to stay on it. Butt isn’t as flashy but he would bring the red zone ability of Eifert and at worst can push Kroft for his spot. And again, Dalton is going to need all the weapons he can get…and ones that can be there in a quick check down situation. Plus think of all the jersey sales. Butt. Hehehe...
Most Fitting Name in College Football || Michigan TE Jake Butt Career Highlights ᴴᴰ
5th round – 176th overall pick: Jordan Morgan (T/G) Pennsylvania State
Here comes another project! However, at this point in the draft is where I find this type of pick easier to stomach. He is a four year starter at LT albeit at a much lower level of competition. Might be more ideally suited to kick inside in the pros. Essentially a long term backup with the POTENTIAL to start with refinement. He’s fine at this point in the draft. Again, the season (offensively) hinges on Cedric (gulp) Ogbuehi.
Jordan Morgan (Kutztown OL) vs East Stroudsburg 2016
6th round – 193rd overall pick: Matt Milano (LB) Boston College
Undersized but productive. Special teamer with the chance to develop into something more down the road. A drafted version of Vinny Rey. Can backup on the outside and allow the Bengals to finally wash their hand of P.J. Dawson. Could see a WR here.
Matt Milano #28 Boston College Highlights [Here Comes the Night]
6th round – 217th overall pick: Keionta Davis (DE) Tennessee-Chattanooga
Upside and all that. Played well against lesser competition (10.5 sacks and 3 forced fumbles), did have 0.5 sacks against Alabama. Fine to try and develop at this point in the draft.
Keionta Davis Vs Alabama(2016)
7th round – 227th overall pick: Jake Elliott (K) Memphis
Don’t try and get a Kicker as UFA. Take this guy and hope he can beat out Randy Bullock. Yikes.
Memphis Kicker Jake Elliott 2015 Super Cut
7th round – 251st overall pick: John Toth (Center) Kentucky
Backup (eventual replacement?) for bull rushed Bodine. Might go higher than this.
Jon Toth (Kentucky C) vs Auburn 2015
Priority UFA - WR, Safety, O line, D line.
Here it be:
1st round – 9th overall pick: Reuben Foster (LB) Alabama
2011 was the last time the Bengals picked in the top ten. A.J. Green turned out nicely. At #4 overall. For more parallels for this pick, in 2008 the Bengals selected with the 9th overall pick a LB out of USC in Keith Rivers. That didn’t turn out nicely. Foster is not Keith Rivers in that he looks and acts the part. I don’t like how he came off at the Combine but exceptions are made if you can play a sport at the highest of levels. And obviously Mike Brown and co. don’t care (see Jones, Adam). Foster is an immediate impact player (which is at the top of the criteria list for me when picking in the upper half of the 1st round). Sideline to sideline talent and 1st team All-American. Butkus Award winner. He’s got attitude and play making ability. Can cover. Easily the best player in the draft at this position group. Even with the FA signing of Minter, the Bengals still take him here. This group has been a long overdue for a major revamp. Add him with Burfcit and you got something. He could start out on the Strong side (Dansby’s spot) and eventually slide to the middle if Minter flames out or just flat out is better. Vigil and Rey rotate in depending on situation. This pick could also be DE if there is a panic run on QB’s ahead of us. WR is always an option but I am going with Foster as the BPA here.
2nd round – 41st overall pick: Alvin Kamara (RB) Tennessee
Jeremy Hill has been declining since his rookie year. He is also entering the last year of his rookie contract. Giovani Bernard is coming off of a torn ACL so who knows what he will be in 2017. Rex Burkhead is a Patriot. The rest of the group is: 100 year old Cedric Peerman and undrafted Tra Carson. You cool with that? Me neither. Kamara was a highly productive back at Tennessee in limited carries out of the backfield. He can catch making him valuable as the O-line is what it is and Dalton is going to have to rely even more on getting the ball out quick. Top combine performer in vertical and broad jump. If someone like McCaffrey slides I would be all over that but I think that’s wishful thinking. Running back is a definite need pick and I think you go with Kamara here.
3rd round – 73rd overall pick: Roderick Johnson (OT) Florida State
I don’t need to add a lot of words about how this season will hinge on Cedric Ogbuehi and if he can find the talent that made him the Bengals 1st round pick in 2015. Their complete mismanagement of the Whitworth situation and Ced’s complete ineptitude when in the starting lineup in ’16 will put him under the microscope more so than any other player in’17. This is a pick that will be the disaster backup plan and is scary in that if Ogbuehi falls on his face again leading to a benching, you are relying on a 3rd round rookie to take over. Thing is, this is a terrible draft for OT. Especially LT. In a perfect world the Bengals will trade back in the 1st round (or up?!) and take Ryan Ramczyk out of Wisconsin in the 20's. Maybe an A.J. McCarron trade happens between now and then? Regardless, there is no one on the roster right now to backup Ced…and that is scary. Johnson is a 6’7” with 31 straight starts at LT for Florida State. There isn’t a FA savior coming (as mentioned, he’s in L.A.) and the Bengals need to have someone in the pipeline in case Ogbuehi turns out to be the biggest 1st round bust in recent memory. They forced themselves into putting all their eggs in his basket, at least for 2017.
4th round – 116th overall pick: Tanoh Kpassagnon (DE) Villanova
Might be a little late for some to get a DE but this is what I’ve got for now. Michael Johnson’s second stint can safely be categorized as a disappointment. This guy is just as tall at 6’7” and has a little more weight to him. He is…wait for it…a project and you know the Bengals just can’t help themselves in that regard! He is probably their version of Margus Hunt and Marvin Lewis’ pride might not be able to help not taking this raw prospect in hopes of molding him into something since they failed miserably with Hunt. I am not completely sold on this pick and would prefer a more pro ready player at this spot. For the 4th round though, it’s okay. For now. Michael Johnson gets this year to get it right because I doubt the team can justify keeping him in ’18 if his production remains the same with his salary at $4.55 million…which is the last year he is under contract.
4th round – 138th overall pick: Corn Elder (CB) University of Miami (FL)
The Bengals seemingly will keep picking CB after CB until the end of time. It’s fine and I get it. They just need to be better at it. Kirkpatrick finally came around and was rewarded with a big time contract and is here until 2021. He’s the #1, like it or not. William Jackson III has the opportunity to start on the other side with Pacman’s situation being in flux. Even if Jones is on the roster, he is on the wrong side of 30 with a big drop in production last year. He is probably playing on his last contract with the team (free agent after ’18). Dennard is a bust to this point. Josh Shaw is a tweener that is probably best suited long term as a Safety. Behind them is questionable talent. Elder can project in as a nickelback and perhaps a return guy. At worst, he can be a gunner on special teams! Although we usually reserve that for our first round picks. He also has some experience returning punts/kicks.
5th round – 153rd overall pick: Jake Butt (TE) Michigan
Injury pushes him down to this spot. He might go higher than this but this is where I have him. Eifert is one mean look from being on IR and is entering his contract year. If his brittle body doesn’t hold up then I find it very hard to justify throwing money at him in spite of him being an enormous weapon for Dalton. You can’t argue that the team is markedly better with him on the field. However, that’s the rub. Can’t rely on him to stay on it. Butt isn’t as flashy but he would bring the red zone ability of Eifert and at worst can push Kroft for his spot. And again, Dalton is going to need all the weapons he can get…and ones that can be there in a quick check down situation. Plus think of all the jersey sales. Butt. Hehehe...
Most Fitting Name in College Football || Michigan TE Jake Butt Career Highlights ᴴᴰ
5th round – 176th overall pick: Jordan Morgan (T/G) Pennsylvania State
Here comes another project! However, at this point in the draft is where I find this type of pick easier to stomach. He is a four year starter at LT albeit at a much lower level of competition. Might be more ideally suited to kick inside in the pros. Essentially a long term backup with the POTENTIAL to start with refinement. He’s fine at this point in the draft. Again, the season (offensively) hinges on Cedric (gulp) Ogbuehi.
Jordan Morgan (Kutztown OL) vs East Stroudsburg 2016
6th round – 193rd overall pick: Matt Milano (LB) Boston College
Undersized but productive. Special teamer with the chance to develop into something more down the road. A drafted version of Vinny Rey. Can backup on the outside and allow the Bengals to finally wash their hand of P.J. Dawson. Could see a WR here.
Matt Milano #28 Boston College Highlights [Here Comes the Night]
6th round – 217th overall pick: Keionta Davis (DE) Tennessee-Chattanooga
Upside and all that. Played well against lesser competition (10.5 sacks and 3 forced fumbles), did have 0.5 sacks against Alabama. Fine to try and develop at this point in the draft.
Keionta Davis Vs Alabama(2016)
7th round – 227th overall pick: Jake Elliott (K) Memphis
Don’t try and get a Kicker as UFA. Take this guy and hope he can beat out Randy Bullock. Yikes.
Memphis Kicker Jake Elliott 2015 Super Cut
7th round – 251st overall pick: John Toth (Center) Kentucky
Backup (eventual replacement?) for bull rushed Bodine. Might go higher than this.
Jon Toth (Kentucky C) vs Auburn 2015
Priority UFA - WR, Safety, O line, D line.
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