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Johnny Sleeper
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I was thinking about how some of the rumors are that the Tanaka bidding could get up to $80M+ so I started thinking about the maximum the Cubs could go. This requires going a lot of guess work on their finances. The first thing I'm taking into consideration is that the Cubs have to operate in the black. This is based off of several reports, but Bruce Levine explained it the best saying the sell agreement requires them to operate in the black through 2016 to give Zell certain tax breaks. Given that payroll has been sitting around $110M the last two seasons, although it would have gone to about $120M if they had landed Sanchez I'm going to assume that we are looking at a maximum payroll obligation of $120M. Then we factor in what I will call found money; meaning money that was not available last year and the Cubs gain $25M from the new MLB TV deal, every team gets this increase. That gives the Cubs about $145M.
Next we look at where spending could decrease this year from last year and the international spending jumps out. They went well over their limit last year which resulted in financial penalties and a cap of $250k on any international signings this year. My guess is an estimate based on reported signing amounts and estimating the tax means they have another $15Mish to play with. Their draft cap will remain about the same as they have the 4th pick this year so for this exercise I'm going to assume it's a wash.
I see that as giving the Cubs about $170M for total payroll and a bid on Tanaka. The big league payroll, right now, looks like it will end up around $75M, without any other significant financial moves. If you add the estimated salary of Tanaka, $10M, to that they are at $85M. So right now I'm going to guess they have a maximum bid of $85M for Tanaka if they are willing to go with every dollar they can.
They can increase that amount by trading Shark ($5M), Castro ($5M), spending less on Wrigley upkeep this off-season then last off-season. Last off-season was estimated at $40M and I hear they are planning on spending that same amount this year. I'm sure there are other ways they can shave off a little money here and there. I'm going to assume they trade Shark due to the rumors of very strong offers from both Arizona and Washington.
I'm going to guess that the maximum bid the Cubs can make on Tanaka is right around $90M. With the Dodgers and Yankees expected to be in the bidding I think the Cubs will end up throwing out a bid of $91.1M. I also think that will be enough to land Tanaka and we will all hope he is more Darvish then Dice-K. That is my understandings of what they have to spend and I fully expect them to go all-in on Tanaka. The good news is that if they can spend $90M on Tanaka that means that next off-season they will have a lot of money to spend on other players to fill needs as Baez, Bryant, Alcantara, Soler, Almora, etc. come up.
How much do you think they will bid? My math could be completely off and I could be way over or under on money available.
Next we look at where spending could decrease this year from last year and the international spending jumps out. They went well over their limit last year which resulted in financial penalties and a cap of $250k on any international signings this year. My guess is an estimate based on reported signing amounts and estimating the tax means they have another $15Mish to play with. Their draft cap will remain about the same as they have the 4th pick this year so for this exercise I'm going to assume it's a wash.
I see that as giving the Cubs about $170M for total payroll and a bid on Tanaka. The big league payroll, right now, looks like it will end up around $75M, without any other significant financial moves. If you add the estimated salary of Tanaka, $10M, to that they are at $85M. So right now I'm going to guess they have a maximum bid of $85M for Tanaka if they are willing to go with every dollar they can.
They can increase that amount by trading Shark ($5M), Castro ($5M), spending less on Wrigley upkeep this off-season then last off-season. Last off-season was estimated at $40M and I hear they are planning on spending that same amount this year. I'm sure there are other ways they can shave off a little money here and there. I'm going to assume they trade Shark due to the rumors of very strong offers from both Arizona and Washington.
I'm going to guess that the maximum bid the Cubs can make on Tanaka is right around $90M. With the Dodgers and Yankees expected to be in the bidding I think the Cubs will end up throwing out a bid of $91.1M. I also think that will be enough to land Tanaka and we will all hope he is more Darvish then Dice-K. That is my understandings of what they have to spend and I fully expect them to go all-in on Tanaka. The good news is that if they can spend $90M on Tanaka that means that next off-season they will have a lot of money to spend on other players to fill needs as Baez, Bryant, Alcantara, Soler, Almora, etc. come up.
How much do you think they will bid? My math could be completely off and I could be way over or under on money available.