Is Home Field really an Advantage/Look Inside/You Decide

[outofyourmind]

More Off Season Topics to further our knowledge/discussion of College Football. (or something to that effect)

So I started thinking what the best way to determine if the Home Field Advantage vs Away Games is a real thing or not.

Most people accept that if everything is equal, then the Home Team is a Field Goal Favorite/3pt Favorite.
I think this is universally accepted but thought there should be some numbers to back it up, and where the fuck does that come from.

Again, I pulled these numbers manually, and some mistakes may exist, but a pattern developed the more I looked at it. I didn't pull a lot of teams as I was doing this manually and a pattern developed early. Maybe @Gator could put something together to show what these percentages show as far as point spreads.

These numbers represent winning percentage at Home vs. winning percentage Away and the difference in that percentage. In every single case without exception, playing at home always provided a higher winning percentage than playing away. (I know big surprise)

I knew that consistency was going to be key, so the I came up with the following.
1. I took only Conference Games into consideration.

• playing the same teams every year.
• playing alternate home/away every other year.
• knowing your opponent and his tendencies.

2. Time Frame/1946-2015

• considered the "modern era" of CFB
• conferences were mostly stable with little change during this time.
• the rules had mostly been established leather helmets/face masks/etc
• easy to look up.

3. Long Time Frame

• would take out much of the peaks and valley's of any programs ups and downs
• although teams play home/away and teams may vary from year to year, its the best thing we have.
• longer time frames produce better results. (just my opinion).

Percentage Differential/Team/Home Field Winning%/Away Games Winning %
1.2%/Georgia/.661/.649*
5.7%/Ohio State/.791/.734
5.7%/Tennessee/.649/.592**
5.7%/Texas/.761/.704
6.4%/Oklahoma/.831/.767***
6.6%/Nebraska/.735/.669
7.0%/Southern Cal/.750/.680
8.0%/Michigan/.749/.669
9.0%/LSU/.625/.5.35***
9.0%/Oregon/.570/.480
12.1%/Clemson/.716/.595
14.6/Florida/.714/.568****

So I took some Scrub Teams to compare to the above.
6.6%/Washington State/.422/.356
6.9%/Northwestern/.372/.303
7.8%/Iowa State/.340/.262
10.8%/Vandy/.272/.164
12.3%/Kansas State/.415/.292
13.6%/Mississippi State/.419/.283
14.6%/Indiana/.367/.221

I think the advantage is real as it affects every team no matter how good they are.
How real in terms of point differential in wins and losses??? Don't know. (need help here)

Some Programs are bigger Mama's Boy's than others.
So don't leave home without your Mama. (looking at you Clemson, Florida, MSU, Indiana)

What The Fuck Does All Of This Mean???
Not sure about that, but am sure its the off-season.



Discuss






*Congrats to Georgia but can't tell if they just play bad at home or just play good on the road.

**SEC Teams will have to calculate Alabama because of that Birmingham thing

***Must point out that Oklahoma is 4th on this list only because of such a high home winning %, and that Oklahoma's away winning % is better than everyone else's home winning %, except for Ohio State, thank you.

****Am surprised that Florida has such a high % differential with their annual neutral site game with Georgia being taken out of the equation.

 

[Wamu]

More Off Season Topics to further our knowledge/discussion of College Football. (or something to that effect)

So I started thinking what the best way to determine if the Home Field Advantage vs Away Games is a real thing or not.

Most people accept that if everything is equal, then the Home Team is a Field Goal Favorite/3pt Favorite.
I think this is universally accepted but thought there should be some numbers to back it up, and where the fuck does that come from.

Again, I pulled these numbers manually, and some mistakes may exist, but a pattern developed the more I looked at it. I didn't pull a lot of teams as I was doing this manually and a pattern developed early. Maybe @Gator could put something together to show what these percentages show as far as point spreads.

These numbers represent winning percentage at Home vs. winning percentage Away and the difference in that percentage. In every single case without exception, playing at home always provided a higher winning percentage than playing away. (I know big surprise)

I knew that consistency was going to be key, so the I came up with the following.
1. I took only Conference Games into consideration.

• playing the same teams every year.
• playing alternate home/away every other year.
• knowing your opponent and his tendencies.

2. Time Frame/1946-2015

• considered the "modern era" of CFB
• conferences were mostly stable with little change during this time.
• the rules had mostly been established leather helmets/face masks/etc
• easy to look up.

3. Long Time Frame

• would take out much of the peaks and valley's of any programs ups and downs
• although teams play home/away and teams may vary from year to year, its the best thing we have.
• longer time frames produce better results. (just my opinion).

Percentage Differential/Team/Home Field Winning%/Away Games Winning %
1.2%/Georgia/.661/.649*
5.7%/Ohio State/.791/.734
5.7%/Tennessee/.649/.592**
5.7%/Texas/.761/.704
6.4%/Oklahoma/.831/.767***
6.6%/Nebraska/.735/.669
7.0%/Southern Cal/.750/.680
8.0%/Michigan/.749/.669
9.0%/LSU/.625/.5.35***
9.0%/Oregon/.570/.480
12.1%/Clemson/.716/.595
14.6/Florida/.714/.568****

So I took some Scrub Teams to compare to the above.
6.6%/Washington State/.422/.356
6.9%/Northwestern/.372/.303
7.8%/Iowa State/.340/.262
10.8%/Vandy/.272/.164
12.3%/Kansas State/.415/.292
13.6%/Mississippi State/.419/.283
14.6%/Indiana/.367/.221

I think the advantage is real as it affects every team no matter how good they are.
How real in terms of point differential in wins and losses??? Don't know. (need help here)

Some Programs are bigger Mama's Boy's than others.
So don't leave home without your Mama. (looking at you Clemson, Florida, MSU, Indiana)

What The Fuck Does All Of This Mean???
Not sure about that, but am sure its the off-season.



Discuss






*Congrats to Georgia but can't tell if they just play bad at home or just play good on the road.

**SEC Teams will have to calculate Alabama because of that Birmingham thing

***Must point out that Oklahoma is 4th on this list only because of such a high home winning %, and that Oklahoma's away winning % is better than everyone else's home winning %, except for Ohio State, thank you.

****Am surprised that Florida has such a high % differential with their annual neutral site game with Georgia being taken out of the equation.

I'm just way too busy right now & don't have the time to read your comment. Is an audio version available?

 

[TheReal_NU]

More Off Season Topics to further our knowledge/discussion of College Football. (or something to that effect)

So I started thinking what the best way to determine if the Home Field Advantage vs Away Games is a real thing or not.

Most people accept that if everything is equal, then the Home Team is a Field Goal Favorite/3pt Favorite.
I think this is universally accepted but thought there should be some numbers to back it up, and where the fuck does that come from.

Again, I pulled these numbers manually, and some mistakes may exist, but a pattern developed the more I looked at it. I didn't pull a lot of teams as I was doing this manually and a pattern developed early. Maybe @Gator could put something together to show what these percentages show as far as point spreads.

These numbers represent winning percentage at Home vs. winning percentage Away and the difference in that percentage. In every single case without exception, playing at home always provided a higher winning percentage than playing away. (I know big surprise)

I knew that consistency was going to be key, so the I came up with the following.
1. I took only Conference Games into consideration.

• playing the same teams every year.
• playing alternate home/away every other year.
• knowing your opponent and his tendencies.

2. Time Frame/1946-2015

• considered the "modern era" of CFB
• conferences were mostly stable with little change during this time.
• the rules had mostly been established leather helmets/face masks/etc
• easy to look up.

3. Long Time Frame

• would take out much of the peaks and valley's of any programs ups and downs
• although teams play home/away and teams may vary from year to year, its the best thing we have.
• longer time frames produce better results. (just my opinion).

Percentage Differential/Team/Home Field Winning%/Away Games Winning %
1.2%/Georgia/.661/.649*
5.7%/Ohio State/.791/.734
5.7%/Tennessee/.649/.592**
5.7%/Texas/.761/.704
6.4%/Oklahoma/.831/.767***
6.6%/Nebraska/.735/.669
7.0%/Southern Cal/.750/.680
8.0%/Michigan/.749/.669
9.0%/LSU/.625/.5.35***
9.0%/Oregon/.570/.480
12.1%/Clemson/.716/.595
14.6/Florida/.714/.568****

So I took some Scrub Teams to compare to the above.
6.6%/Washington State/.422/.356
6.9%/Northwestern/.372/.303
7.8%/Iowa State/.340/.262
10.8%/Vandy/.272/.164
12.3%/Kansas State/.415/.292
13.6%/Mississippi State/.419/.283
14.6%/Indiana/.367/.221

I think the advantage is real as it affects every team no matter how good they are.
How real in terms of point differential in wins and losses??? Don't know. (need help here)

Some Programs are bigger Mama's Boy's than others.
So don't leave home without your Mama. (looking at you Clemson, Florida, MSU, Indiana)

What The Fuck Does All Of This Mean???
Not sure about that, but am sure its the off-season.



Discuss






*Congrats to Georgia but can't tell if they just play bad at home or just play good on the road.

**SEC Teams will have to calculate Alabama because of that Birmingham thing

***Must point out that Oklahoma is 4th on this list only because of such a high home winning %, and that Oklahoma's away winning % is better than everyone else's home winning %, except for Ohio State, thank you.

****Am surprised that Florida has such a high % differential with their annual neutral site game with Georgia being taken out of the equation.

You have Oregon in the wrong group.

Other than that, the variances surprised me. I would not have expected that large of a margin on the historic "top teams". Although the 7 positions between 2-8 on your list only have a 2.3% difference.

And, I have no idea how that translates to an "xx" point advantage. That's for stat nuts to debate.

 

[4down20]

Due to the way games are scheduled, home games are in general going to have higher win% among higher teams simply because teams tend to bring in lesser competition at their home games. This starts at the top with G5 teams being brought in to play in other people's stadiums, which not only puts their away % higher in general but also frees up home teams to which they try to bring in easier competition for themselves as well.

Basically, this is a strength of schedule issue. You need to know the strength of schedule of the home games, which means step 1 is accurately measuring the strength of all teams. You also need the strength of the home team as well. Because if you want to measure the actual effect of the home game, you need to know what is expected of that team.

If they lose games they should lose and win the games they should win, then it speaks more to the strength of the teams than it does the stadium/location. Significant games would be ones that break those trends, or where you have evenly matched teams.

I'd probably find a way to scrub out the blowout games that have expected results. AKA, Alabama vs Western Kentucky or vs FCS team doesn't mean shit. Take the games you have left, measure how often the teams over or under perform expectations. The teams that overperform the most are the places that likely have the best home field advantage.

You need a decent amount of games to get anything significant, so you need stats from many years.

This is how I would do it anyway.

 

[TheReal_NU]

1. I took only Conference Games into consideration

@4down20
I figured you would be one to try crunching numbers on this one, and removing OOC would seem to me to be a good start. Add in the extended timeframe and that should also make overall numbers more statistically significant.
But then again, I took one statistics class ever. Understood it just fine, but hated that you could prove both sides of an argument depending on which stats one chose to look at.

 

[outofyourmind]

I'm just way too busy right now & don't have the time to read your comment. Is an audio version available?

Yes.
Listen closely.
It says

"WE GOIN' TA BEAT DAT ASS IN COLUMBUS DIS YEAR"

• 

 

[Wamu]

Yes.
Listen closely.
It says

"WE GOIN' TA BEAT DAT ASS IN COLUMBUS DIS YEAR"

• 
  
  
  • 

I don't know what yer smokin' but ya better share!

 

[outofyourmind]

You have Oregon in the wrong group.

This was a huge debate amongst the Executive Committee before posting.
I can do a "Call List" to poll everyone if necessary.

Let me know.

• 

 

[TheReal_NU]

This was a huge debate amongst the Executive Committee before posting.
I can do a "Call List" to poll everyone if necessary.

Let me know.

• 

As long as multiple votes are allowed, and potato salad is included, I'm in

 

[gpm1976]

More Off Season Topics to further our knowledge/discussion of College Football. (or something to that effect)

So I started thinking what the best way to determine if the Home Field Advantage vs Away Games is a real thing or not.

Most people accept that if everything is equal, then the Home Team is a Field Goal Favorite/3pt Favorite.
I think this is universally accepted but thought there should be some numbers to back it up, and where the fuck does that come from.

Again, I pulled these numbers manually, and some mistakes may exist, but a pattern developed the more I looked at it. I didn't pull a lot of teams as I was doing this manually and a pattern developed early. Maybe @Gator could put something together to show what these percentages show as far as point spreads.

These numbers represent winning percentage at Home vs. winning percentage Away and the difference in that percentage. In every single case without exception, playing at home always provided a higher winning percentage than playing away. (I know big surprise)

I knew that consistency was going to be key, so the I came up with the following.
1. I took only Conference Games into consideration.

• playing the same teams every year.
• playing alternate home/away every other year.
• knowing your opponent and his tendencies.

2. Time Frame/1946-2015

• considered the "modern era" of CFB
• conferences were mostly stable with little change during this time.
• the rules had mostly been established leather helmets/face masks/etc
• easy to look up.

3. Long Time Frame

• would take out much of the peaks and valley's of any programs ups and downs
• although teams play home/away and teams may vary from year to year, its the best thing we have.
• longer time frames produce better results. (just my opinion).

Percentage Differential/Team/Home Field Winning%/Away Games Winning %
1.2%/Georgia/.661/.649*
5.7%/Ohio State/.791/.734
5.7%/Tennessee/.649/.592**
5.7%/Texas/.761/.704
6.4%/Oklahoma/.831/.767***
6.6%/Nebraska/.735/.669
7.0%/Southern Cal/.750/.680
8.0%/Michigan/.749/.669
9.0%/LSU/.625/.5.35***
9.0%/Oregon/.570/.480
12.1%/Clemson/.716/.595
14.6/Florida/.714/.568****

So I took some Scrub Teams to compare to the above.
6.6%/Washington State/.422/.356
6.9%/Northwestern/.372/.303
7.8%/Iowa State/.340/.262
10.8%/Vandy/.272/.164
12.3%/Kansas State/.415/.292
13.6%/Mississippi State/.419/.283
14.6%/Indiana/.367/.221

I think the advantage is real as it affects every team no matter how good they are.
How real in terms of point differential in wins and losses??? Don't know. (need help here)

Some Programs are bigger Mama's Boy's than others.
So don't leave home without your Mama. (looking at you Clemson, Florida, MSU, Indiana)

What The Fuck Does All Of This Mean???
Not sure about that, but am sure its the off-season.



Discuss






*Congrats to Georgia but can't tell if they just play bad at home or just play good on the road.

**SEC Teams will have to calculate Alabama because of that Birmingham thing

***Must point out that Oklahoma is 4th on this list only because of such a high home winning %, and that Oklahoma's away winning % is better than everyone else's home winning %, except for Ohio State, thank you.

****Am surprised that Florida has such a high % differential with their annual neutral site game with Georgia being taken out of the equation.

I see where you're going with all this... but all the data in the world can't save you in September.

 

[outofyourmind]

I see where you're going with all this... but all the data in the world can't save you in September.

• 

 

[gpm1976]

• 

9/9/2017 RIP Oklahoma foosball

 

[outofyourmind]

9/9/2017 RIP Oklahoma foosball

Dude
We are undefeated in Columbus.

 

[gpm1976]

Dude
We are undefeated in Columbus.

Congrats on that lone 1-point victory??

 

[theboardref]

Haven't we had this discussion in like 3 other threads? Home field advantage is a sub

More Off Season Topics to further our knowledge/discussion of College Football. (or something to that effect)

So I started thinking what the best way to determine if the Home Field Advantage vs Away Games is a real thing or not.

Most people accept that if everything is equal, then the Home Team is a Field Goal Favorite/3pt Favorite.
I think this is universally accepted but thought there should be some numbers to back it up, and where the fuck does that come from.

Again, I pulled these numbers manually, and some mistakes may exist, but a pattern developed the more I looked at it. I didn't pull a lot of teams as I was doing this manually and a pattern developed early. Maybe @Gator could put something together to show what these percentages show as far as point spreads.

These numbers represent winning percentage at Home vs. winning percentage Away and the difference in that percentage. In every single case without exception, playing at home always provided a higher winning percentage than playing away. (I know big surprise)

I knew that consistency was going to be key, so the I came up with the following.
1. I took only Conference Games into consideration.

• playing the same teams every year.
• playing alternate home/away every other year.
• knowing your opponent and his tendencies.

2. Time Frame/1946-2015

• considered the "modern era" of CFB
• conferences were mostly stable with little change during this time.
• the rules had mostly been established leather helmets/face masks/etc
• easy to look up.

3. Long Time Frame

• would take out much of the peaks and valley's of any programs ups and downs
• although teams play home/away and teams may vary from year to year, its the best thing we have.
• longer time frames produce better results. (just my opinion).

Percentage Differential/Team/Home Field Winning%/Away Games Winning %
1.2%/Georgia/.661/.649*
5.7%/Ohio State/.791/.734
5.7%/Tennessee/.649/.592**
5.7%/Texas/.761/.704
6.4%/Oklahoma/.831/.767***
6.6%/Nebraska/.735/.669
7.0%/Southern Cal/.750/.680
8.0%/Michigan/.749/.669
9.0%/LSU/.625/.5.35***
9.0%/Oregon/.570/.480
12.1%/Clemson/.716/.595
14.6/Florida/.714/.568****

So I took some Scrub Teams to compare to the above.
6.6%/Washington State/.422/.356
6.9%/Northwestern/.372/.303
7.8%/Iowa State/.340/.262
10.8%/Vandy/.272/.164
12.3%/Kansas State/.415/.292
13.6%/Mississippi State/.419/.283
14.6%/Indiana/.367/.221

I think the advantage is real as it affects every team no matter how good they are.
How real in terms of point differential in wins and losses??? Don't know. (need help here)

Some Programs are bigger Mama's Boy's than others.
So don't leave home without your Mama. (looking at you Clemson, Florida, MSU, Indiana)

What The Fuck Does All Of This Mean???
Not sure about that, but am sure its the off-season.



Discuss






*Congrats to Georgia but can't tell if they just play bad at home or just play good on the road.

**SEC Teams will have to calculate Alabama because of that Birmingham thing

***Must point out that Oklahoma is 4th on this list only because of such a high home winning %, and that Oklahoma's away winning % is better than everyone else's home winning %, except for Ohio State, thank you.

****Am surprised that Florida has such a high % differential with their annual neutral site game with Georgia being taken out of the equation.

Thanks for the research. From a pure win/loss percentage I think the notionthag playing at home has weight. I still think there are so many factors that can't be calculated that impact a game. 4th down conversions in important situations due to noise, wins at home where a team was favored by a ton, games where the home team were expected to lose. Curious how long this took you though, good stuff.

 

[outofyourmind]

Haven't we had this discussion in like 3 other threads? Home field advantage is a sub

Thanks for the research. From a pure win/loss percentage I think the notionthag playing at home has weight. I still think there are so many factors that can't be calculated that impact a game. 4th down conversions in important situations due to noise, wins at home where a team was favored by a ton, games where the home team were expected to lose. Curious how long this took you though, good stuff.

I think that too
However over a 69 year period, I think most of those things get washed out.

Didn't take long to do as I was keeping a running list and adding to it from time to time as I thought of things and as things started to show themselves.

So I guess the next thing is to look at actual team/team scores in that time frame.
For example.

Oklahoma vs. Iowa State.
In Norman
Average Score
Oklahoma 35.66
ISU 10.22

In Ames
Oklahoma 33.97
ISU 9.00

Iowa State actually scores, on average, more points when playing in Norman.
I mean, WTF.

Oklahoma vs. Nebraska
In Norman
Oklahoma 29.31
Nebraska 16.90

In Lincoln
Oklahoma 20.00
Nebraska 17.00

Nebraska scores virtually the same points in Lincoln as they do in Norman, but for Oklahoma, there is a 9 point swing. WTF is that about.

Those things are probably next, and will be the time consumer, if I do them at all.

 

[gpm1976]

I think that too
However over a 69 year period, I think most of those things get washed out.

Didn't take long to do as I was keeping a running list and adding to it from time to time as I thought of things and as things started to show themselves.

So I guess the next thing is to look at actual team/team scores in that time frame.
For example.

Oklahoma vs. Iowa State.
In Norman
Average Score
Oklahoma 35.66
ISU 10.22

In Ames
Oklahoma 33.97
ISU 9.00

Iowa State actually scores, on average, more points when playing in Norman.
I mean, WTF.

Oklahoma vs. Nebraska
In Norman
Oklahoma 29.31
Nebraska 16.90

In Lincoln
Oklahoma 20.00
Nebraska 17.00

Nebraska scores virtually the same points in Lincoln as they do in Norman, but for Oklahoma, there is a 9 point swing. WTF is that about.

Those things are probably next, and will be the time consumer, if I do them at all.

I think that three. Just ask any Michigan fan

 

[theboardref]

I think that too
However over a 69 year period, I think most of those things get washed out.

Didn't take long to do as I was keeping a running list and adding to it from time to time as I thought of things and as things started to show themselves.

So I guess the next thing is to look at actual team/team scores in that time frame.
For example.

Oklahoma vs. Iowa State.
In Norman
Average Score
Oklahoma 35.66
ISU 10.22

In Ames
Oklahoma 33.97
ISU 9.00

Iowa State actually scores, on average, more points when playing in Norman.
I mean, WTF.

Oklahoma vs. Nebraska
In Norman
Oklahoma 29.31
Nebraska 16.90

In Lincoln
Oklahoma 20.00
Nebraska 17.00

Nebraska scores virtually the same points in Lincoln as they do in Norman, but for Oklahoma, there is a 9 point swing. WTF is that about.

Those things are probably next, and will be the time consumer, if I do them at all.

Like the teams you compared, OU to Nebraska things probably do balance out over time. It is more like the ISU series in which these teams could play 100 times at both sites and on the moon and the results would be OU winning by a wide margin most of the time. This topic is always so difficult because it is trying to make a decisive and clear-cut decision off of so many different possible factors. Nearly graduated with a sociology degree which is pretty much the same thing, trying to understand that which can not always be clearly understood. Nice work on this.

 

[outofyourmind]

Can't forget @Used 2 B Hu

Percentage Differential/Team/Home Field Winning%/Away Games Winning %
11.9%/Baylor/.474/.355

 

[Used 2 B Hu]

Eggheads with their egg-tardery