How much would you pay Melky

[GiantsPackersChamps2011]

I posted this on another thread for Giants fans. What is the most you'd be willing to pay Melky Cabrera per season

A few of them said 9M or less and if he wants more let him walk.
I said I would be fine with 12 maybe 13M per season

What would you guys say

 

[MarcoPolo]

My worry about Melky is that he is one hot month away from Being Randy Winn. Admittedly, it was a huge, monster, fantastic month - but it was just one month.

How much is Randy Winn worth?

Melky :

overall 2012 : .353/.391/.519/.910

Apr : .300/.366/.422/.788
May : .429/.457/.647/1.104
Jun : .304/.343/.441/.784

2011: .305/.339/.470 /.809

 

[GiantsPackersChamps2011]

so how much would you be willing to pay

 

[GiantsPackersChamps2011]

I don't expect 15 Million as some guys on MLB Network were saying. I would say 11-12 Million
3rd year is a Team Option

A .300-.310 hitter with very good-great defense. Can steal bases.

 

[mistgl]

I posted this on another thread for Giants fans. What is the most you'd be willing to pay Melky Cabrera per season

A few of them said 9M or less and if he wants more let him walk.
I said I would be fine with 12 maybe 13M per season

What would you guys say

He's such a damn wild card, and it honestly depends on how many people want him. If he keeps playing like this, he very well may play himself out of our price range.

If he were down for something in the range of X years/40 mil, then sure. Any more than that and take the picks and walk. Screw giving anymore Rowand deals out.

If it was between him and Quentin, or Bourn, then it's him and CQ all the way. Or, really, if it's just him or Bourn, then I chose him.

 

[OzzieGiant]

I posted this on another thread for Giants fans. What is the most you'd be willing to pay Melky Cabrera per season

A few of them said 9M or less and if he wants more let him walk.
I said I would be fine with 12 maybe 13M per season

What would you guys say

Rowand money for sure maybe a little more, it we don't we lose our best all round player and he probably ends up a dog - his fielding, arm, base running are all worth decent money over and above his 300+ ave especially at our park.

 

[MarcoPolo]

{copied from another thread to the "how much would you pay" thread}

You never did answer the 'how much would you pay' question, Marco.

I think I'd be willing to go 4/40 or 3/36.

And how would you feel, if after paying him 3/36, he hit :
.290/.340 /.440 /.780, w/ ~10 HRs and ~15 SBs

for the first two years? I'd feel let down.

Honestly, I don't know what I'd be comfortable paying him at the moment - he's had one "Randy Winn" month (by that, I mean Winn's amazing performance when he first joined the Giants via trade) and two good months. I'd want to wait until the season was over, and see how he plays for the next 3 months. The Giants have had their share of players who have ONE fantastic month the season before signing a new contract (which pumped up their overall stats) and then fell back to earth the following season (whether good or just mediocre) : Winn, Uribe, etc.

If he plays .840+ OPS ball most of the rest of the season, I think he'll get more than $12M/yr, and that he'll be priced out of the Giants comfort range.

 

[tzill]

My worry about Melky is that he is one hot month away from Being Randy Winn. Admittedly, it was a huge, monster, fantastic month - but it was just one month.

How much is Randy Winn worth?

Melky :

overall 2012 : .353/.391/.519/.910

Apr : .300/.366/.422/.788
May : .429/.457/.647/1.104
Jun : .304/.343/.441/.784

2011: .305/.339/.470 /.809

I think you have to pay him like he's the 2011 Melky, not the 2012 Melky. In 2011 he was a 4.1 WAR guy. This year, he's on pace for 6.4 WAR.

I think the current WAR rate is about 1.0 WAR = 4.15MM.

So, the 2011 Melky was a $17MM player, this year he's on pace for being about $26MM.

I'd go 3/45. If someone is willing to pay him $20MM per, we have to let him walk.

 

[CameronFrye]

I think you have to pay him like he's the 2011 Melky, not the 2012 Melky. In 2011 he was a 4.1 WAR guy. This year, he's on pace for 6.4 WAR.

I think the current WAR rate is about 1.0 WAR = 4.15MM.

So, the 2011 Melky was a $17MM player, this year he's on pace for being about $26MM.

I'd go 3/45. If someone is willing to pay him $20MM per, we have to let him walk.

I know this is where the market is going, but I just don't see Melky as being worth $17 mil per year. Ryan Braun is making $19 mil per and there is NOTHING about Melky's game that I would take over Braun.

Melky is, to me, essentially Hunter Pence or Michael Bourn. Pence signed a one-year, $10.2 mil contract this past offseason and Bourn is a $12 mil per player.

$12-$13 mil per is where I would put his value.

 

[tzill]

I know this is where the market is going, but I just don't see Melky as being worth $17 mil per year. Ryan Braun is making $19 mil per and there is NOTHING about Melky's game that I would take over Braun.

Melky is, to me, essentially Hunter Pence or Michael Bourn. Pence signed a one-year, $10.2 mil contract this past offseason and Bourn is a $12 mil per player.

$12-$13 mil per is where I would put his value.

Your valuation is going to be significantly below what Melky gets. I'd put money on the prediction he'll get AT LEAST $15MM per.

I do not disagree that Braun is a better player in almost every facet of the game, but I would argue that Braun signed a team friendly contract and is underpaid. Dude is a 6.0 WAR player and should be getting over $20MM.

Your opinion is yours, but Melky (as he's come into his own the last 1.5 years) is a better player than either Bourn or Pence.

 

[gp956]

I think you have to pay him like he's the 2011 Melky, not the 2012 Melky. In 2011 he was a 4.1 WAR guy. This year, he's on pace for 6.4 WAR.

I think the current WAR rate is about 1.0 WAR = 4.15MM.

So, the 2011 Melky was a $17MM player, this year he's on pace for being about $26MM.

I'd go 3/45. If someone is willing to pay him $20MM per, we have to let him walk.

I'd say that's the floor on years/per. I don't think think 3/45 will get it done as an offer he'll take in-season. You might bump that up to include a fourth year mutual option at 18MM, with a 5MM dollar buyout if the Giants pass on year four. That gives melky security and the ability to walk while he's still in his prime.

 

[tzill]

I'd say that's the floor on years/per. I don't think think 3/45 will get it done as an offer he'll take in-season. You might bump that up to include a fourth year mutual option at 18MM, with a 5MM dollar buyout if the Giants pass on year four. That gives melky security and the ability to walk while he's still in his prime.

Agreed. Of course, if he tanks the second half he'll miss out on millions.

 

[MarcoPolo]

I think you have to pay him like he's the 2011 Melky, not the 2012 Melky. In 2011 he was a 4.1 WAR guy. This year, he's on pace for 6.4 WAR.

I think the current WAR rate is about 1.0 WAR = 4.15MM.

So, the 2011 Melky was a $17MM player, this year he's on pace for being about $26MM.

I'd go 3/45. If someone is willing to pay him $20MM per, we have to let him walk.

I forgot to ask when I first read this : where does one find "the current WAR rate"? And how it's calculated? (all players? only those who have > 6 years of service time? only those who signed a contract as a FA? etc.) And I'd love to see a graph for the good-to-great players (I could care less about below average players) : does the WAR rate trend up, or down, or remain steady as one advances into super-star caliber player territory? (my guess is that the $$-per-WAR would trend down as one gets to super-star, as the very top (say, 10) players aren't paid double what the "very good" players just below them earn).

 

[tzill]

I forgot to ask when I first read this : where does one find "the current WAR rate"? And how it's calculated? (all players? only those who have > 6 years of service time? only those who signed a contract as a FA? etc.) And I'd love to see a graph for the good-to-great players (I could care less about below average players) : does the WAR rate trend up, or down, or remain steady as one advances into super-star caliber player territory? (my guess is that the $$-per-WAR would trend down as one gets to super-star, as the very top (say, 10) players aren't paid double what the "very good" players just below them earn).

I'll see if I can dig up a reference for you, but IIRC, the thinking goes like this:

WAR rate is calculated by dividing expected WAR of all FAs by the total contracts of all FAs (updated every year). Expected WAR is derived using regression theory (Taylor Series, IIRC). So, to specifically answer your question: WAR value is calculated from FAs. Also (and I'm going from memory here), contracts for arb-eligible players are calculated like this: 40% of FA FMV for first year of arb, 60% for 2nd year, and 80% for 3rd year. For Super Twos, I think it goes 30-45-60-80 for their four years.

You ask some pretty good questions about how actual contracts match up to pay. I've not seen an article on this, but there may be some out there. Perhaps a more qualified economist like my alt could weigh in here?

 

[Mays-Fan]

2012 San Francisco Giants Payroll, Roster, Uniform Numbers - Baseball-Reference.com

Well, we do have a lot of dead money coming off the books after 2012:

Rowand $13.6
Huff $10.0
Wilson $8.5
Franchez $6.0
Mota $1.0

With $79.7 committed for 2013. $42.0 of that ends after 2013 (Zito at $20, and looking like Timmeh at $22).

So we have some room going forward. Cabrera is the prototype player for our park, (fast, gap power) and I don't think his numbers are a flash-in-the-pan. Word is he worked very hard on his conditioning prior to 2011, and did that again prior to 2012, and his numbers have improved accordingly.

Between 3/40 and 4/60 would be OK in my book, but that is pure speculation on my part - not taking into account what similar players are getting, nor taking into account an overall strategic plan for the team as a whole, and without knowing what the owners have in mind for a budget. I would like to see him get signed as soon as possible, before competing bids are on the table. It's what we have done with other big pieces (Bum, Panda, Cain, Song), and we should do the same with Pagan and Posey.

As our family is fond of saying when packing the car for a vacation - "big things first". Then you can pack the smaller stuff around it. Melky is now one of the "big things".

 

[tzill]

2012 San Francisco Giants Payroll, Roster, Uniform Numbers - Baseball-Reference.com

Well, we do have a lot of dead money coming off the books after 2012:

Rowand $13.6
Huff $10.0
Wilson $8.5
Franchez $6.0
Mota $1.0

With $79.7 committed for 2013. $42.0 of that ends after 2013 (Zito at $20, and looking like Timmeh at $22).

So we have some room going forward. Cabrera is the prototype player for our park, (fast, gap power) and I don't think his numbers are a flash-in-the-pan. Word is he worked very hard on his conditioning prior to 2011, and did that again prior to 2012, and his numbers have improved accordingly.

Between 3/40 and 4/60 would be OK in my book, but that is pure speculation on my part - not taking into account what similar players are getting, nor taking into account an overall strategic plan for the team as a whole, and without knowing what the owners have in mind for a budget. I would like to see him get signed as soon as possible, before competing bids are on the table. It's what we have done with other big pieces (Bum, Panda, Cain, Song), and we should do the same with Pagan and Posey.

As our family is fond of saying when packing the car for a vacation - "big things first". Then you can pack the smaller stuff around it. Melky is now one of the "big things".

Dead on, IMO. Melky has to be resolved first. I'll put my latest 2013 rosterbation in the appropriate thread.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Dead on, IMO. Melky has to be resolved first. I'll put my latest 2013 rosterbation in the appropriate thread.

It may be a small addendum, but I would add that Melky has already fit into Giants-mania with the Melkmen and Melkmaids at the Park. The guy is tailor made for our ballclub.

 

[xxERICSMITHXX]

I think you have to pay him like he's the 2011 Melky, not the 2012 Melky. In 2011 he was a 4.1 WAR guy. This year, he's on pace for 6.4 WAR.

I think the current WAR rate is about 1.0 WAR = 4.15MM.

So, the 2011 Melky was a $17MM player, this year he's on pace for being about $26MM.

I'd go 3/45. If someone is willing to pay him $20MM per, we have to let him walk.

I have to agree with Tzill on the above in bold. Fangraphs has his BABIP this year at .388 so I would expect him to come back down to earth a bit. 2011 was also pretty high at .332.

I wouldn't be comfortable paying him based on this year with that BABIP so high, but I think it is more important to get a short term deal. 3/$45MM would be more than I would want to pay, but if it keeps the deal at 3 years I can definitely live with it.

 

[dredinis21]

Pay Melky his due. If we continue to reward our achieving centerpieces their fair price prior to them hitting the market, we are in essence letting our team and MLB baseball players everywhere know that we will give you yours and take care of you if you earn it. To me, that is fair management and that may be attractive to Free Agents to be, Giants or otherwise.

And that's not just to Free Agents to be, think of how patient the SF crowd has been with Timmeh this season? He has earned his fair due here in SF and is of cult status. He is loved by all Giants fans and was incredibly instrumental in bringing the World Series Championship trophy back to San Francisco. Two Cy Youngs and a World Series Championship later, he has earned some time and the fans are still behind him.

Giants fans are some of the best in baseball, if I say so myself. Here's to hoping that Giants management follows the same sentiment. Cheers.