How Coaches Perform in the Tourney

[TrollyMcTroller]

I stumbled across this a little while ago. It shows Coach K as the best tournament performer overall, (no big surprise) but the focus of the write-up is looking at how coaches perform relative to where their team is seeded. I thought it was a pretty interesting read.

Coach K most successful tourney coach, but Beilein biggest overachiever | BracketScience

 

[jonvi]

I stumbled across this a little while ago. It shows Coach K as the best tournament performer overall, (no big surprise) but the focus of the write-up is looking at how coaches perform relative to where their team is seeded. I thought it was a pretty interesting read.

Coach K most successful tourney coach, but Beilein biggest overachiever | BracketScience

I think that's a fun find trolly. At the least, I get to see how my boy Coach JB really has done against his peers…at least one review.

I'm surprised to see JB in the top 20 so I'm good with him at 17. I know SU has lost some games to higher seeded teams and figured that calculation would drop Coach Boeheim down quite a bit.

But I do suggest the author has placed too much bias on seed placement. As far as I’m concerned, after the S16, there is no favorite. Mainly because rankings are an opinion to begin with.

Then telling me the Big East is better than the Pac12, when only a couple of teams from each conference played each other back in November. It means absolutely nothing after a full season of play.

Then telling me the leader of the Big East gets a 1 seed and the leader of the Pac gets a 2 seed because those on the east coast had to play these mighty Big East teams…..man I could go on for days of how ranking bias impacts seeding going all the way back to the preseason rankings.

IMO, the chart along with every ratings and ranking systems are better than conversational pieces...but not by much.

So in the end….I like the chart and find it amusing. But it’s not the end all for me when deciding if I think Coach JB is a better coach than Beilein. I’ll take Coach JB in Syracuse over Beilein in Syracuse any day.

 

[TrollyMcTroller]

I actually, might be on the other end of this thing for the first time, jonvi. I think this list, while an interesting piece, is 100% a conversation piece. The meaningful stuff is still going to be your Win% and games won. I just thought it was worth posting for two reasons. 1) It was the first time I've seen something like that quantified, and 2) I thought the approach he took was interesting. (using real life number of previous seeds instead of just saying "A 1 seed should make it to the Final Four" which it turns out, is actually over performing!)

The thing to remember is, the lower your seed, the more opportunities you have to beat expectations. The higher your seed is, the more chances you have to under-perform.

The two on that list that impress me the most are Rick Pitino and Coach K. They've both averaged better than a 4 seed for their careers and still managed to make it in the top 10.

A few other observations...

Kinda surprised to see Ol' Roy on the list. I know he's generally done well at Carolina, but I seem to remember KU celebrating Easter with an NCAA Tournament collapse. Maybe that was Larry Brown.

And speaking of KU...

Is Bill Self the only guy at a "destination" job that isn't on the list? Crean maybe?Any active coaches with a Championship besides Self that aren't on the list?

 

[jonvi]

The thing to remember is, the lower your seed, the more opportunities you have to beat expectations. The higher your seed is, the more chances you have to under-perform.

Yes which is why I would rather JB at SU than Beilein.

The two on that list that impress me the most are Rick Pitino and Coach K. They've both averaged better than a 4 seed for their careers and still managed to make it in the top 10.

Impressed...yes. Surprised.....no. Both are great college coaches IMO.

A few other observations...

Kinda surprised to see Ol' Roy on the list. I know he's generally done well at Carolina, but I seem to remember KU celebrating Easter with an NCAA Tournament collapse. Maybe that was Larry Brown.

Like JB, I'm surprised to see him on the list but am not surprised to see him and JB towards the bottom. Roy has two NC's with Carolina and went to the NC at KU....so those three years must have helped keep him in the mix.

Is Bill Self the only guy at a "destination" job that isn't on the list? Crean maybe?Any active coaches with a Championship besides Self that aren't on the list?

Too much work for me. The list of NC's is exclusive. If you ask me, winning one in a lifetime is damn special. So I don't think there will be many more even to consider.

 

[CatsTopPac]

I think this list is like any other list:

It has its ups and downs.

I'm not here to say that seeding is a good measure, but it is a measure, and when it gets to March, the higher seeds are generally expected to go further. Obviously, when it gets to the later rounds and depending on where the games are played, who is favored gets less skewed.

I am interested in this list because of Coach Miller (ya think??). Us AZ fans are well aware that Miller has never lost to a lower seed. Ever. That's a pretty interesting stat because regardless of where teams are seeded or where they've played, Miller has won the games that he was "supposed to win". It could be because his teams should have been seeded higher (which AZ fans would like to believe), or because he gets his teams ready in March. Regardless, the fact remains.

Now, before anyone confuses this post with me boasting, Miller is looking to have a top 1-3 seed this year. A #1 seed means that will need to get to the Final Four, and only lose to another #1 seed to maintain that stat. A #2 seed means that he needs to get to the Elite Eight, or only lose to another #2 (or #1 seed) in the Final Four to maintain it. So he'll have his work cut out for him this year to keep it going.

But last year, I looked up how many wins some of the elite coaches had in their first nine years, and Miller was above all but a couple, out of the pool of the coaches like K, Self, Boeheim, Cal, Izzo, Williams, etc. I even went back and looked at Calhoun, Olson, and some of the others who had retired. Again, it's not a great measure, but it does mean that he has done well as he wraps up his first decade as a head coach.

I think you have to take these with a grain of salt (like everything else). Miller has never been a top seed, so his stats of overachieving are inflated. But the fact remains, Miller can still say that he has never lost a game in March that his seeding said he was supposed to win. Add to that the fact that in addition, his teams have also knocked off teams above him (Texas and Duke in 2011). So more than Miller having never lost to a team seeded lower than him, it's just something that AZ fans have some pride in Miller for being able to carry with him.

Fun list though, thanks for posting!!

 

[CatsTopPac]

Any active coaches with a Championship besides Self that aren't on the list?

Only fellow (former) KU coach Larry Brown. Seems a little ridiculous to count him though.

 

[TrollyMcTroller]

Only fellow (former) KU coach Larry Brown. Seems a little ridiculous to count him though.

Good catch. I even mentioned him (in a different context) and still forgot about him.

 

[Runeman]

Seems to me Coach K has not done as well this past decade and Rick Pitino has been great. He always seems to flounder during the season and then show up and play lights out at the tournament. IMO, that guy is the best. Billy Donovan also shows up good.

 

[TrollyMcTroller]

Seems to me Coach K has not done as well this past decade and Rick Pitino has been great. He always seems to flounder during the season and then show up and play lights out at the tournament. IMO, that guy is the best. Billy Donovan also shows up good.

Well, K hasn't done as well compared to the previous decades at Duke, but compared to just about any other coach, he's still in pretty rare company the last decade.

Pitino's spot near the top is the most impressive to me. He hasn't just overachieved in the tournament, he's done it consistently throughout his career.

Calipari deserves some credit too. He's got the 2nd best seeding average on the list (Behind K, just above Roy) which makes it that much harder to overachieve.

I was surprised for about half a second at seeing Donovan so high... then I remembered... besides the two Titles, he's got a really impressive string of Elite 8's too. Show's up good? No, I'd say Donovan show's up great.

 

[Runeman]

Yeah, Billy D. is excellent. In addition to the two titles which he clearly had a great, great team, he has had his team in the past 3 final 8's; came really close to 2 final 4's in that stretch, but lost it right at the end of the game. His problem is it's been several years since we have had a legitimate big man on the team. Patric Young is just 6-9 and he is our biggest guy and not much of a leaper. I will say that Coach Donovan knows how to get his teams to play defense and to me that is why the team does well on neutral courts.