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Each week throughout the season, the Playoff Forecast will use the ESPN Football Power Index and human logic (i.e., the eye test) to determine which teams are best positioned in the chase for the inaugural College Football Playoff. These rankings take into account perceived team strength (including injuries), remaining schedule difficulty (including prospective conference championship games) and the current selection committee rankings.
The Playoff Forecast is not intended to be a prediction of the committee's top 25, which will be released every Tuesday. It is a projection of which teams have the best chance to be in the top four at the end of the regular season.
1. Baylor Bears
FPI's chance of winning out: 67.0 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 71.7 percent
For the first time all season, I don't have Florida State in this spot. This is based on two factors. First, I think Baylor is more likely to win out than FSU (and FPI agrees). Second, I believe -- although some might not -- that Baylor will be the selection committee's highest-ranked Big 12 team if it does win out. In other words, my gut feeling is that Baylor controls its playoff destiny because of the head-to-head win over TCU that will soon be tough for the committee to ignore. We'll see whether there's any sign of it in Tuesday's rankings.
2. Florida State Seminoles
FPI's chance of winning out: 33.3 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 75.4 percent
FSU's most dangerous remaining game seems to be the next one -- Saturday at Miami. FPI gives the Noles only a 63 percent chance of winning. The way they have been letting opponents hang around this season, neither the Florida game nor the probable meeting with Duke for the ACC title figures to be a slam dunk, either. Even so, it's hard not to recognize that FSU is in a good position to finish the regular season undefeated.
3. Oregon Ducks
FPI's chance of winning out: 61.7 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 70.5 percent
I would have considered the Ducks for the No. 2 slot, except for the fact that significant injuries are starting to mount. But even if Oregon is without some key offensive players for a few weeks, it still shouldn't be threatened for the rest of November, as long as Marcus Mariota stays healthy. Arizona State looks capable of at least giving the Ducks a challenge in the Pac-12 title game, especially if some of the injured starters don't return.
4. Alabama Crimson Tide
FPI's chance of winning out: 32.0 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 35.5 percent
After surviving its final road game of the season at LSU and being arguably the most dominant home team in college football, Alabama's playoff prospects have improved dramatically. FPI gives the Tide a 74 percent chance of beating Mississippi State in Tuscaloosa this coming weekend and a 62 percent chance of taking down Auburn two weeks later. The X factor is which team will emerge as the champion of the SEC East. Bama would be favored in that game regardless, but much less so if the opponent is Georgia.
5. TCU Horned Frogs
FPI's chance of winning out: 68.2 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 24.2 percent
The Frogs are given the highest probability to win out by FPI among the contending teams, but I'm lukewarm on their playoff prospects because of the head-to-head situation with Baylor I described earlier. But because they lost that game on the road by such a narrow margin, there is a chance the committee could choose to diminish the significance of head-to-head if it deems the rest of TCU's schedule to be superior to Baylor's. If Minnesota loses out and finishes with a 7-5 record, however, TCU's nonconference slate won't be all that significant. By the way, the Frogs' Thanksgiving date with Texas in Austin doesn't figure to be a walk in the park.
6. Mississippi State Bulldogs
FPI's chance of winning out: 4.9 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 19.2 percent
Saturday couldn't have gone much worse for the Bulldogs, as their signature victory was diminished because of Auburn taking a second loss -- not to mention Alabama's win created what feels like a must-win scenario for MSU this week in Tuscaloosa. If the Bulldogs don't win that game, they could finish 11-1 and be the runner-up in the SEC West. The way the other conference races are shaping up, it's not looking likely for any league to put two teams in the inaugural playoff.
7. Ohio State Buckeyes
FPI's chance of winning out: 45.3 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 65.2 percent
OSU took care of all it could control with an emphatic road win at Michigan State. Now the Buckeyes have to keep winning impressively and hope for help. The most likely scenario might be that they could take Florida State's spot if the Seminoles stumble somewhere down the stretch. But there's also the possibility that Ohio State could be dominant enough to pass the committee's eye test and make the playoff, not on résumé but by clearly being one of the four best teams.
8. Arizona State Sun Devils
FPI's chance of winning out: 6.9 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 13.2 percent
ASU has a difficult road ahead with a trip to Tucson for its rivalry game with Arizona and, if it wins, a Pac-12 title game against Oregon. The bad news is that Arizona State has to win out to reach the playoff, and the odds against that are steep. The good news is that the schedule probably allows the Sun Devils to control their destiny and not have to worry about getting outside assistance.
9. Nebraska Cornhuskers
FPI's chance of winning out: 6.4 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 11.0 percent
Keep winning and see what happens. That's all Bo Pelini's crew can do. It helps that the Huskers' one loss (at Michigan State) has quality. Now they just need some noteworthy wins. Beating Wisconsin in Madison would be impressive, given the way the Badgers have been playing, and an upset of Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game would grab a lot of attention. Who knows, maybe it would put the Huskers in a similar position to what I just outlined for OSU.
10. Ole Miss Rebels
FPI's chance of winning out: 41.5 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 4.0 percent
Whether Ole Miss is in the best spot of the two-loss teams is debatable. What's not debatable is that every twice-beaten team is in a very weak position. The Rebels' best hope might be for FSU to lose and Alabama to run the table to ascend to No. 1 in the committee's rankings. Having a win over No. 1 would have to carry a lot of weight if enough upsets occurred to open the door for a two-loss team to make the playoff field.
Each week throughout the season, the Playoff Forecast will use the ESPN Football Power Index and human logic (i.e., the eye test) to determine which teams are best positioned in the chase for the inaugural College Football Playoff. These rankings take into account perceived team strength (including injuries), remaining schedule difficulty (including prospective conference championship games) and the current selection committee rankings.
The Playoff Forecast is not intended to be a prediction of the committee's top 25, which will be released every Tuesday. It is a projection of which teams have the best chance to be in the top four at the end of the regular season.
1. Baylor Bears
FPI's chance of winning out: 67.0 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 71.7 percent
For the first time all season, I don't have Florida State in this spot. This is based on two factors. First, I think Baylor is more likely to win out than FSU (and FPI agrees). Second, I believe -- although some might not -- that Baylor will be the selection committee's highest-ranked Big 12 team if it does win out. In other words, my gut feeling is that Baylor controls its playoff destiny because of the head-to-head win over TCU that will soon be tough for the committee to ignore. We'll see whether there's any sign of it in Tuesday's rankings.
2. Florida State Seminoles
FPI's chance of winning out: 33.3 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 75.4 percent
FSU's most dangerous remaining game seems to be the next one -- Saturday at Miami. FPI gives the Noles only a 63 percent chance of winning. The way they have been letting opponents hang around this season, neither the Florida game nor the probable meeting with Duke for the ACC title figures to be a slam dunk, either. Even so, it's hard not to recognize that FSU is in a good position to finish the regular season undefeated.
3. Oregon Ducks
FPI's chance of winning out: 61.7 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 70.5 percent
I would have considered the Ducks for the No. 2 slot, except for the fact that significant injuries are starting to mount. But even if Oregon is without some key offensive players for a few weeks, it still shouldn't be threatened for the rest of November, as long as Marcus Mariota stays healthy. Arizona State looks capable of at least giving the Ducks a challenge in the Pac-12 title game, especially if some of the injured starters don't return.
4. Alabama Crimson Tide
FPI's chance of winning out: 32.0 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 35.5 percent
After surviving its final road game of the season at LSU and being arguably the most dominant home team in college football, Alabama's playoff prospects have improved dramatically. FPI gives the Tide a 74 percent chance of beating Mississippi State in Tuscaloosa this coming weekend and a 62 percent chance of taking down Auburn two weeks later. The X factor is which team will emerge as the champion of the SEC East. Bama would be favored in that game regardless, but much less so if the opponent is Georgia.
5. TCU Horned Frogs
FPI's chance of winning out: 68.2 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 24.2 percent
The Frogs are given the highest probability to win out by FPI among the contending teams, but I'm lukewarm on their playoff prospects because of the head-to-head situation with Baylor I described earlier. But because they lost that game on the road by such a narrow margin, there is a chance the committee could choose to diminish the significance of head-to-head if it deems the rest of TCU's schedule to be superior to Baylor's. If Minnesota loses out and finishes with a 7-5 record, however, TCU's nonconference slate won't be all that significant. By the way, the Frogs' Thanksgiving date with Texas in Austin doesn't figure to be a walk in the park.
6. Mississippi State Bulldogs
FPI's chance of winning out: 4.9 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 19.2 percent
Saturday couldn't have gone much worse for the Bulldogs, as their signature victory was diminished because of Auburn taking a second loss -- not to mention Alabama's win created what feels like a must-win scenario for MSU this week in Tuscaloosa. If the Bulldogs don't win that game, they could finish 11-1 and be the runner-up in the SEC West. The way the other conference races are shaping up, it's not looking likely for any league to put two teams in the inaugural playoff.
7. Ohio State Buckeyes
FPI's chance of winning out: 45.3 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 65.2 percent
OSU took care of all it could control with an emphatic road win at Michigan State. Now the Buckeyes have to keep winning impressively and hope for help. The most likely scenario might be that they could take Florida State's spot if the Seminoles stumble somewhere down the stretch. But there's also the possibility that Ohio State could be dominant enough to pass the committee's eye test and make the playoff, not on résumé but by clearly being one of the four best teams.
8. Arizona State Sun Devils
FPI's chance of winning out: 6.9 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 13.2 percent
ASU has a difficult road ahead with a trip to Tucson for its rivalry game with Arizona and, if it wins, a Pac-12 title game against Oregon. The bad news is that Arizona State has to win out to reach the playoff, and the odds against that are steep. The good news is that the schedule probably allows the Sun Devils to control their destiny and not have to worry about getting outside assistance.
9. Nebraska Cornhuskers
FPI's chance of winning out: 6.4 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 11.0 percent
Keep winning and see what happens. That's all Bo Pelini's crew can do. It helps that the Huskers' one loss (at Michigan State) has quality. Now they just need some noteworthy wins. Beating Wisconsin in Madison would be impressive, given the way the Badgers have been playing, and an upset of Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game would grab a lot of attention. Who knows, maybe it would put the Huskers in a similar position to what I just outlined for OSU.
10. Ole Miss Rebels
FPI's chance of winning out: 41.5 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 4.0 percent
Whether Ole Miss is in the best spot of the two-loss teams is debatable. What's not debatable is that every twice-beaten team is in a very weak position. The Rebels' best hope might be for FSU to lose and Alabama to run the table to ascend to No. 1 in the committee's rankings. Having a win over No. 1 would have to carry a lot of weight if enough upsets occurred to open the door for a two-loss team to make the playoff field.
