Elijah's 2014-15 Off-Season/Scouting Thread

[elijah]

The first mock drafts are coming around, which means that I'm starting incredibly late. I've got some work to do. I'll be writing up a scouting report on every player that I watch film on to post here, I'll eventually post my rankings, big boards, mock drafts, etc. once I write them all. To start off, Marcus Mariota..

QB - Marcus Mariota - Oregon
6’4” - 219 Lbs. - Junior

Pros:
- Obviously had an incredible TD/INT ratio (38/2, 55/2 including runs).
- Showed wonderful mobility and athleticism.
- Threw very, very well on the run.
- Threw extremely well on the run even while running left.
- Extremely accurate, for the most part.
- Does a terrific job putting the ball where only his receiver can get it.
- Moves around the pocket very well.

Cons:
- Put his receivers in dangerous situations one too many times.
- Throws a little too far outside on some of his deep throws.
- Didn’t experience many formations other than a spread shotgun.
- Can be semi-inconsistent while passing, has an occasional throw that’s extremely inaccurate.

Review:
Seems to be the real deal, but you can never be too sure when you’re drafting your franchise quarterback. To start off, his TD/INT ratio is insane, you don’t find that at any level. And it’s not like he only performed at that level for one year, he was consistent throughout college (131 Total TD/12 INT). For the stats people, they’re beautiful no matter the angle you look at them. He’s ran the ball well, and safely, for a quarterback with 2,136 yards and 28 touchdowns in his career. His completion percentage has been in the high 60’s, and he’s slung the ball around a bit with an average of 10.2 yards per attempt this year.

The pro’s that you can find in Mariota outweight his con’s by far. He has everything that the modern quarterback seems to be made of. He has a pretty good deep ball and an extremely accurate short to mid range ball, however he has an off throw every now and then. He has great athleticism and mobility, allowing him to move around the pocket terrifically. Along with the mobility, he throws extremely well on the run. Even when Mariota is running to his left, he still throws across his body incredibly well.

Mariota didn’t play much in any formation other than a spread shotgun, but that shouldn’t be an area of concern. The biggest con I found with Mariota was his inconsistent passing (which wasn’t even that inconsistent). He had a few random throws that he couldn’t quite make and the ball would end up wildly inaccurate. The biggest question about Mariota doesn’t come from his skill, it’s in his style of play. He’s a phenomenal quarterback, but will his mobile style hurt him? While he’s a much smarter runner and smarter overall quarterback than the likes of Kaepernick and RGIII, the mobile quarterback fad is already slowly disappearing.

Mariota is the best quarterback to come out in the draft since 2012 (the year of Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson). As of right now (12/17/14), I don’t see anyway that Mariota doesn’t go first overall. The only possible scenario is if Oakland or Jacksonville land the first overall pick, get stubborn and won’t trade it.

Grade: 9.6/10

 

[ATL96Steeler]

As of today the Bucs hold the #1 overall pick and TN is next...if that holds true...Mariota will most likely be the 1st overall pick, but imo...the Bucs need to take it slow

 

[Clayton]

Agreed with Mariota going #1.

Do you regret giving Clowney such glowing accolades last year or is it too soon?

 

[elijah]

Agreed with Mariota going #1.

Do you regret giving Clowney such glowing accolades last year or is it too soon?

No, I think it's too soon to judge anything. He was injured too, so that doesn't help his case.

 

[cdumler7]

I just don't see the accuracy that you do in Mariota. Yes he had a decent percentage but I just think he relies to heavily on moving around in the pocket waiting for somebody to blow a coverage and leave a WR wide open. I've watched a few of his games and it just amaze me how little he ever would stay in the pocket. Now some of that was/is by design where they get him moving some but he just wants to get out of the pocket way too quickly for my liking. I do think he looks to pass a heck of a lot more than say RGIII so I think he will find a career in the NFL but he would above maybe any player in this draft benefit from sitting a year or two and learning how to be comfortable in the pocket.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

I just don't see the accuracy that you do in Mariota. Yes he had a decent percentage but I just think he relies to heavily on moving around in the pocket waiting for somebody to blow a coverage and leave a WR wide open. I've watched a few of his games and it just amaze me how little he ever would stay in the pocket. Now some of that was/is by design where they get him moving some but he just wants to get out of the pocket way too quickly for my liking. I do think he looks to pass a heck of a lot more than say RGIII so I think he will find a career in the NFL but he would above maybe any player in this draft benefit from sitting a year or two and learning how to be comfortable in the pocket.

I've held off giving a opinion on Mariota simply because I've haven't put any work in scouting him per say, but when I've seen him play, I've come away with the same view about him moving around , waiting for a blown coverage.

 

[NinerSickness]

Kaepernick 2.0. You don't want this guy IMO.

 

[cdumler7]

I've held off giving a opinion on Mariota simply because I've haven't put any work in scouting him per say, but when I've seen him play, I've come away with the same view about him moving around , waiting for a blown coverage.

I will admit I haven't watched a ton of his games this year. The few though that I have I would say 90% of his work was outside the pocket. For me to feel comfortable drafting a guy I would much rather that number be reversed of him doing 90% of his work in the pocket yet still able to escape when needed. Mariota reminds me a bit of Russell Wilson but I just don't think he has the leadership skills that Wilson does. I don't know the guy personally so maybe he does but listening to interviews he seems like a very quiet and shy kid who is a great football player and maybe after a few years can earn the trust of his teammates but he isn't a guy that steps on the field day one and everybody knows that he is "The Man."

 

[night]

I just don't trust prospects who didn't play in a pro system in college. Very few seem to be able to make it in the NFL.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

I just don't trust prospects who didn't play in a pro system in college. Very few seem to be able to make it in the NFL.

That's right...you can't "athlete your way" to being a good QB at the next level. It might work for a season at most, but if you're going to make it long there, at some point you're going to have to be able to read coverage, go through your progression and deliver the ball.

With so many read option QBs coming into the league, I think we're going to start seeing much shorter tenure at QB in the future...teams will cycle through QBs every 4 to 5 years.

 

[Clayton]

With so many read option QBs coming into the league, I think we're going to start seeing much shorter tenure at QB in the future...teams will cycle through QBs every 4 to 5 years.

Maybe.

What I think is going to happen is that teams will start valuing offensive line positions more and more as 2nd tier throwers and dime a dozen running backs become easier to get.

 

[elijah]

I don't know how many of you guys watch film, or how you do it.

But I must suggest that Draftbreakdown.com is a terrific site for it. Lots of film constantly being added

 

[UK Cowboy]

I heard a guy talking Mariota the other day that I thought was spot on....if he went somewhere and sat a year or two, he could be great....if he plays right away, he's gonna seriously struggle. As far as ready to play right away skill wise, there's no question it's Winston....if you aren't scared of the off the field stuff

 

[cdumler7]

I don't know how many of you guys watch film, or how you do it.

But I must suggest that Draftbreakdown.com is a terrific site for it. Lots of film constantly being added

That is where I usually watch a lot of my prospects for the draft.

 

[elijah]

QB - Jameis Winston - Florida State
6’4” - 230 Lbs. - RS Sophomore

Pros:
- Has a very nice deep ball.
- Very mediocre arm strength, not really a con nor pro.
- Very good feel in the pocket.
- Can put the ball where it needs to be, but seems to need athletic receivers around him.
- Has great mobility and athleticism.
- Great size for a quarterback.
- Has his moments where he looks very special.
- Shows a lot of flashes of excellence, during these flashes he looks to have the ceiling of an elite, top 5 quarterback.
- Throws well on the run.
- Plays phenomenal in the second half and when the clock is running down.
- Showed the ability to throw off his back foot.

Cons:
- Lot of off-field issues, some reports from NFL executives say that the off-field issues are worse than advertised.
- Very mediocre accuracy, nothing exceptional.
- Looked to his check-down as his first or second read way too often, whether by design or not.
- Tried to force a lot of throws.
- Rather long and drawn out release.
- Gets very panicky under pressure, doesn’t handle it too well.
- Makes a lot of poor decisions, would help to sit a year after being drafted.
- While looking very special, he also has his moments where he looks very dull and like a below average quarterback.

Review:
I’m extremely torn on Winston. He is wildly inconsistent. Overall, Winston looks like an average quarterback. He looks like your middle-of-the-road guy, someone that can bring you to the playoffs when you have the right talent around him. Winston seems like he’ll spend his career between a top 15 and top 20 quarterback once he develops. However, he has his spectacular moments where his potential looks sky high. And at the same time, he has his awful moments where he looks like he should never start an NFL game.

The upside to Winston is scary good. Winston is very consistent with his mobility in the pocket, he moves around extremely well. He also has great size to be an NFL quarterback. His deep ball looked good on multiple occasions. While he has very average accuracy, putting athletic receivers around him will make him look like a pro bowl quarterback.

One of the scariest things about Winston is how consistently he makes boneheaded plays. He makes awful reads at times, and he tries to force the ball to his receivers way too often. His release is one of the bigger areas of concern for me, it takes too long for the NFL. He had a lot of times where he looked like a 3rd or 4th round quarterback that should get drafted to be a decent backup. He dealt with pressure awfully.

I saw three sides to Winston. There’s the wildly inconsistent Winston, the average Winston and the superstar. As of right now, I expect his stock to drop to a late first round pick. However, if the superstar shows up in the playoffs, he’s going to be a top 3 pick and may take the #1 spot from Mariota. While it seems 99% likely that Winston will declare, one more year in college would help him tremendously. With the right coaching, Winston can be turned into a decent NFL quarterback. He can be turned into a starter, but if I was an NFL scout, I’m telling my team not to invest in him as a franchise guy. He’s too inconsistent with too many terrible choices.

Grade: 8.6/10

 

[elijah]

Winston is an odd case. He shows so much upside, often immediately followed by downside. He has potential, but he's not someone I would want on my team.

He looks like his best case scenario is a career long, middle-of-the-pack QB with a good team surrounding him. He makes too many poor choices, I wouldn't take him early. Should fall to the late first, I don't think he's worth a top 20 pick.

He's a very high risk, high reward type player. The risk may be higher than the reward though.

 

[Clayton]

I think Winston is an Eli Manning type. Im not wildly impressed by him but he has his moments.

And yeah, I watch draft breakdown against good teams.

 

[elijah]

I think Winston is an Eli Manning or a Blake Bortles. Im not wildly impressed by him but he has his moments.

And yeah, I watch draft breakdown against good teams.

This is exactly how I feel.

He has his moments and they make it hard to write him off, but when he's not having a moment he doesn't seem like all that great of a quarterback. He's a very mediocre guy

 

[Elias]

Mariota may go number 1 but i am always weary of these run option qbs in the nfl. They always get hurt and never are the same again. RG3...

 

[night]

Mariota may go number 1 but i am always weary of these run option qbs in the nfl. They always get hurt and never are the same again. RG3...

It's the spread really. Case Keenum, Colt McCoy, Johnny Manziel, Blaine Gabbert, Sam Bradford, Chase Daniels, Tim Tebow, etc. all played in the spread and had a lot of success in college. It just couldn't translate to the NFL.