Dolphins Trading the #3 Overall to the San Francisco 49ers

[HaroldSeattle]

 

[jarntt]

kind of my point.....they might be getting the guy they think is the 3rd best QB in the draft. How often does that guy pan out?

FYI, not ripping the 9ers, as if they get their guy and he's a stud it doesn't matter what they give up. It's worth it. Not sure I'd give them benefit of the doubt, though, when they also passed on Watson and Mahomes and drafted a backup DE (before they acquired Jimmy G...who they seem to be giving up on). OK...guess that was ripping on them some. But it's true.

You can't look at it that way. Every year is different and stands on it's own as does every player.

But, I don't think the 3rd drafted QB is usually the 3rd best QB. Last year the 3rd QB taken was Herbert who looks like a superstar. The year you took Baker who wasn't worth the 1st pick and wouldn't have been worth a trade like SF just completed, the 3rd QB taken was Allen who in retrospect looks like he may have been worth the trade and clearly looks like the best QB in that group at this point. I think you have to look at the players available and decide how much they are worth to your team and not based on what some other guy did in a different year.

 

[Manster7588]

I mean, to be fair, there are fans who think they know if a QB will be good or not.

I knew Ryan Leaf would be good.

 

[PDay8810]

I knew Ryan Leaf would be good.

BOY...me too

That guy and Bobby Carpenter might be my biggest two misses. Jury is still out on Baker & Murray

 

[DirtDirtDirt]

Mac Jones to the Pats is probably a pretty good bet at this point

 

[Clayton]

Mac Jones to the Pats is probably a pretty good bet at this point

I think if I was doing a 'common sense' mock draft right now, it would be:

1. Jacksonville - Trevor Lawrence
2. Jets - Zach Wilson
3. San Francisco - Justin Fields
4. Atlanta - Penei Sewell
5. Cinci - Ja'marr Chase
6. Miami - Devonta Smith
7. Detroit - Kyle Pitts
8. Carolina - Trey Lance
9. Denver - Mac Jones
10. Dallas - Patrick Surtain II

Broncos have a talented defensive coach who has a lot of young, talented offensive skill players and is probably on a fairly warm seat. Drew Lock was a QB that no one wanted in the first and the Broncos realized that they were the only team in the Lock market so they traded down and waited to take him. Mac Jones' is a winner in college with great footwork which are the two things Lock lacked. I think the only way Denver doesn't take Lance or Jones is if they take Jimmy G or Darnold. If it was your job to win football games in the NFL, would you go all in on Drew Lock, Jimmy G or Sam Darnold? I wouldn't.

I think if the draft falls exactly this way, the only team that would even think about trading down is Atlanta and New England doesn't seem like the type of team that would give up what it would take to get to them.

 

[DirtDirtDirt]

I think if I was doing a 'common sense' mock draft right now, it would be:

1. Jacksonville - Trevor Lawrence
2. Jets - Zach Wilson
3. San Francisco - Justin Fields
4. Atlanta - Penei Sewell
5. Cinci - Ja'marr Chase
6. Miami - Devonta Smith
7. Detroit - Kyle Pitts
8. Carolina - Trey Lance
9. Denver - Mac Jones
10. Dallas - Patrick Surtain II

Broncos have a talented defensive coach who has a lot of young, talented offensive skill players and is probably on a fairly warm seat. Drew Lock was a QB that no one wanted in the first and the Broncos realized that they were the only team in the Lock market so they traded down and waited to take him. Mac Jones' is a winner in college with great footwork which are the two things Lock lacked. I think the only way Denver doesn't take Lance or Jones is if they take Jimmy G or Darnold. If it was your job to win football games in the NFL, would you go all in on Drew Lock, Jimmy G or Sam Darnold? I wouldn't.

I think if the draft falls exactly this way, the only team that would even think about trading down is Atlanta and New England doesn't seem like the type of team that would give up what it would take to get to them.

Denver is an interesting one, how they feel about Lock long term has seemingly been a mystery, you don’t really hear huge endorsements of him, yet you don’t hear them strongly connected to acquiring a new QB

wouldn’t surprise me to see Detroit go with Waddle if things play out as you predict, than Pitts to Dallas because Jerry loves the shiny new toy more than addressing actual needs

with Hockenson currently the best playmaker in Detroit, do you think they would go the 2 TE route a la NE?

 

[Clayton]

with Hockenson currently the best playmaker in Detroit, do you think they would go the 2 TE route a la NE?

Pitts and Hockensen are very different TEs so its certainly possible. Iowa ran Fant and Hockenson together and Pitts is an even better receiver prospect than Fant.

Fant and Sewell are the kind of prospects that will go to teams even if they aren't 100% the best fit because they'll be seen as being that talented. They are the two prospects that can mess up this 'common sense' type of thinking because its possible that Miami takes one of them even if they dont need them.

 

[dtgold88]

I looked back at QB's who were selected with the third overall pick. The odds are daunting. I went back to 1994.

2018 Sam Darnold (2nd QB selected; Mayfield picked at no. 1)
2014 Blake Bortles (1st QB selected)
2008 Matt Ryan (1st QB selected)
2006 Vince Young (1st QB selected)
2002 Joey Harrington (2nd QB selected; David Carr picked at no. 1)
1999 Akili Smith (2nd QB selected; Tim Couch picked at no. 1)
1995 Steve McNair (1st QB selected)
1994 Heath Shuler (1st QB selected)


Only McNair and Ryan were hits. The jury is still out on Darnold, but there's a very real possibility that the Jets are moving on from him. And like you've said, the Niners won't be taking the 1st QB off the board.

I think history shows that it's very hard to pick the right QB even with a high pick. Maybe the Niners will be lucky and that Lawrence, Wilson, Fields, Lance, and Jones are all great so that there is no possible way for them to screw this up.

Just an FYI...your point definitely stands either way, but Akili was 3rd QB selected (behind Couch and McNair)

 

[dtgold88]

That's dumb though. Obviously they would trade him then, in fact declaring him unavailable is how you get other teams to overpay. But nothing like that offer will be offered.

JG is unavailable because they want him to QB one more year and let the rookie learn for a year. But if Mahomes is offered for JG and their first rounder this year they probably change their minds.

It's not dumb at all. Saying JG is unavailable is dumb because, as you mentioned, he could be had for the right offer. sure, Bills are not trading Allen and a 3rd. You think NFL FOs are moved by seeing a tweet calling him unavailable? If they want him they'll call SF, and if they make the right offer they can get him.

All I'm saying.

 

[dtgold88]

Like almost every big move, it's a risk. That's fun though, do we want every team playing tight? It pays off or it doesn't.

No disagreement there.....as I said if they get their guy (or even someone they weren't as sure about) and he's a stud, franchise QB they didn't give up too much.

Just saying cannot imagine the consensus 3rd best QB (which might be who they get) is not often successful.

 

[dtgold88]

You can't look at it that way. Every year is different and stands on it's own as does every player.

But, I don't think the 3rd drafted QB is usually the 3rd best QB. Last year the 3rd QB taken was Herbert who looks like a superstar. The year you took Baker who wasn't worth the 1st pick and wouldn't have been worth a trade like SF just completed, the 3rd QB taken was Allen who in retrospect looks like he may have been worth the trade and clearly looks like the best QB in that group at this point. I think you have to look at the players available and decide how much they are worth to your team and not based on what some other guy did in a different year.

Not sure why Baker was not worth the #1 pick. Was the best QB in league per PFF second half of last season. No lock he can do it again (as sure didn't in 2019) but maybe having a solid coach and same system 2 years in a row helps.

And, sure, they cannot think like that when they make the deal but it is factual. Hitting on a QB hard enough when you get your top choice, let alone who might be your third.....and, yes, is possible they get their #1 choice (we know they will say they did).

 

[FlyerFinFan]

I have a suspicion @SteelersPride will want to see his post quoted.....

Don't worry I have multiple times and he finally admitted to being wrong but I'm sure I'd have to show it to him again and again and again....anyway.

 

[FlyerFinFan]

Lol i mean fantastic moves by the dolphins. Stunningly good. Still twisting things , but let him have it. Ive already said they’re ahead of schedule and doin well.




To be honest. Its kinda baffling what the dolphins have pulled off. They were totally incompetent. Now they are making moves upon moves, just pulling wool over teams eyes. They’re playing chess, while the eagles and the rest are playing tiddlywinks. We haven’t seen a team make this many stellar moves in some time. @Southieinnc i even added this edit.

Haha can you take a pic of you actually doing that....then I may shut it!

 

[FlyerFinFan]

NE Pats south is really shaping up

Naw the Fins gave the patsies back the players they didn't want anymore....you have a few former Fins over there too.

 

[SteelersPride]

I

Haha can you take a pic of you actually doing that....then I may shut it!

haha I would if i could.

you think tua's gonna be your guy ? or he flops?

 

[FlyerFinFan]

I

haha I would if i could.

you think tua's gonna be your guy ? or he flops?

I don't know if he's going to be all world or anything like that but he works too hard to flop. It's drilled into his DNA. Either way I'd prefer them to build such a solid team that dilfer could come out of retirement and win. I still believe that they should draft another QB later on to hedge their bets. Actually every team should be grooming one. Would be nice if you could do this without having to waste a roster spot fully protected 3rd stringer would be good for football.

 

[SteelersPride]

I don't know if he's going to be all world or anything like that but he works too hard to flop. It's drilled into his DNA. Either way I'd prefer them to build such a solid team that dilfer could come out of retirement and win. I still believe that they should draft another QB later on to hedge their bets. Actually every team should be grooming one. Would be nice if you could do this without having to waste a roster spot fully protected 3rd stringer would be good for football.

yeah never gonna get that fully protected part. But I agree with yah......

I agree on Tua. Seems like model citizen, and his work ethic and desire to learn are great. Think with Covid, and injuries it was just tought to get his footing, he gets a raw deal

 

[FlyerFinFan]

yeah never gonna get that fully protected part. But I agree with yah......

I agree on Tua. Seems like model citizen, and his work ethic and desire to learn are great. Think with Covid, and injuries it was just tought to get his footing, he gets a raw deal

It was a tough year for most especially rookies I don't fault the kid at all. Injury or no injury but I'm glad that he got his feet wet. He'll know what to expect next season and have more time to prepare. The team around him should be a lot better as the oline was young and they've added some good depth all over the lineup in FA. Fuller will help a lot and they're not done yet. I don't know if they'll hit their stride completely next year but they should be better.

 

[Southieinnc]

Don't worry I have multiple times and he finally admitted to being wrong but I'm sure I'd have to show it to him again and again and again....anyway.

He admitted being wrong about 1 thing.
He did not admiot to being wrong about every stupid thing you said or will say for the rest of your life.
Now run with that!