Cozart

[JohnU]

Surgery can fix that for him to run, so he's as well to go for that now. Hell, this season is lost anyhow.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Tonight's lineup looks like a ST game.

I'd rather see him have the surgery now regardless if he's unable to ever catch again or not. Barnhart is under team control, but Pena is a free agent. If Meso waited until the off season to have surgery....the Reds wouldn't know until ST if he could catch. Where do they find a starting catcher in the middle of February if Meso can't answer the bell? He could play LF either way, but the Reds need to know by the winter meetings if he can catch or not.

 

[JohnU]

They have the Skipworth kid and Wallach, so they do have catchers, though neither as good as Pena. Could be, Pena will reup with the Reds. They might even sign him this summer. He knows he has a job in Cincy.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I think Pena likes it in Cincinnati and would sign, but the price for his services has gone up with the success he's had the last two years. I don't think he'll sign for $1M per year again....especially if it looks like he's the number one.

 

[JohnU]

so what's he worth?

 

[Hit-n-Run]

He wouldn't break the bank...but he'd probably be in the Dioner Navarro range of 2yr/$8M as the number one.

For a team that already signed their starting catcher for $28M and was planning on a league minimum LF next year and is already projected to be $30M over what would still be a record 2016 OD payroll....it's a potential problem the Reds weren't counting on.

IMO, they'll be shedding payroll again....not adding.

 

[JohnU]

Well, Leake and Cueto are already sunk costs.
I can't see a lot of salary they can unload, unless they can swap Bruce's contract for Chuck N. Fucque, the "other" outfielder who goes 1-for-40.
That leaves the infield, which is Frazier and the 7 dwarves.
I could see the Reds selling off prospects for cash, which is about the lowest form of chicken shit business model in big-league history.
Chapman is about the only prize in the Cracker Jack box ... and he's only a closer.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Well, there was a little chicken shit in the chicken salad the Reds sold us this year. We're also finding a few feathers in the sandwich. It may technically be chicken, but it's not what we paid for. A few Chips and a beer might make it easier to swallow...

Way too many opening day longshots to come together for any rational probability of real success- meaning challenging for post season...although with half the miracles requested of this thin roster, coming true (Bailey and Mesoraco and the rest of the starting cast being healthy for starters), they could have arguably "competed" to play .500, realistically meaning they weren't eliminated until the trade deadline or maybe into September. Maybe that was the Reds thought process.

Sounds like Cozart won't be ready by beginning of spring training, so I'm more paranoid about Mesoraco stalling the neccessary surgery if he can't play regularly in the OF. Unfortunately, Mesoraco's surgery will prevent any kind of winter (or any position) practice for him, so I'm skeptical the Reds will consider OF as a secondary position for him next season- a massive oversight IMO, considering his ability to solidify the middle of the lineup bat, being diluted by missing 70 games or 250+ PA due to being a catcher (and interleague DH) only. Like considering Chapman as a SP, keeping Broxton to close, etc. this team seems to frequently discard better forward thinking options, and replace them with reactionary compromises with players that aren't a value and/or result in producing less, and the W/L suffers.

Bad luck (injuries) is usually made worse by bad planning, that increasingly limit options to only bad choices. The payroll is a problem, but I feel less restricted by Votto's contract with his performance, than several other well paid, although lesser paid than Votto, players that just aren't playing up to average expected production. Its a lot of wasted payroll. It's tough for me to see them pay $8-$10M/Yr. to Bruce and Byrd when they hit .200. Billy Hamilton is doing that making $500k. Bailey makes a lot if money- over $100M is guaranteed, but he's injured, hopefully surgery will get him back to earn that cash. Mesoraco tied up another $30M, so I'd rather get as many AB as possible from him. Ditto for Chapman...Bailey is different, but Meso and Chapman could legitimately produce more with a little consideration by the Reds to expand their roles to increase their impact. They will consider using pitchers as pinch hitters (Lorenzen, Matquis, Leake) or playing probable semi-hitless infielders in the OF (Negron, Schumaker, DeJesus), but won't act on getting Meso AB's as an OF, or Chapman facing 20 hitters a game instead of 3 ?

I see similarities to bitching about poor RISP, but not attempting a bunt after a leadoff double. Hitters taking 2 strikes and swinging at one in the dirt. LOOGY's walking the guy they came to get out. Players not executing is different than decision makers not attempting, but it all contributes to failure.

Imagine where this team's prospects would be without Desclafani, Lorenzen, Iglasias, etc.

Suarez is worthy of a shot at SS. DeJesus is worthy of a shot at a utility infield spot. Rodriguez, Dominguez, Moscot, Winkler, Stevenson, etc. are just names without an opportunity to be more....none makes much money, and all are young. I do wish they could be sampled one or two at a time, instead of forced in as a group...

Barnhart might play well enough to excuse "saving" the $6-$8M over 2 years Pena might cost...if that's true, AND Mesoraco can catch, MAYBE that might get the Red by at C...but past history suggests they'll blow that money and more on old LF's that don't hit, pinch hitters that don't hit, and pitchers that don't pitch.

It's frustrating.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Geez. Kremcheck did Cozarts surgery.

I hate to hear that.

 

[JohnU]

You worry too much. This guy is legendary.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I know surgeons don't have an easy job...but, like lawyers and baseball players, they get paid just as well to fail.

Kremcheck has a lot of do-overs. Just saying.

 

[chico ruiz]

john - i know this is a repeat for you, but bear with me and i'll come back around to the crux of this post eventually - i hope. my first fully cognizant and lasting memory of crosley field was 48 years ago june 7, 1967. my dad, t-ball teammates, and cincinnati baseball devotees were abuzz about a just turned 19 year old pitcher who was pitching for the reds. and, on that date, i was going to see him throw against the great willie mays. he struck out the 'say hey' kid four times that hot day. he had gas back then, before his arm / shoulder got hurt. this particular reds pitcher should be commemorated a lot more than he is in cincinnati. he pitched through excruciating pain, injury, surgery, and media hyper-criticism about his toughness. he came back and logged more innings than any reds pitcher in 1975 & 1976 at the ripe old ages of 27 & 28.

gary nolan was a young phenom, only the second pitcher in baseball history to strike out 200 batters in a season before he turned 20 (the first was bob feller). he had so many arm issues that, at some point, the reds sent him to a DENTIST and told him they had solved the problem (they thought it was all in his head). it's tragedy & comedy at once. it was a long time ago (i grant you), but it goes to 1507's point and always makes me wonder about what really happened with votto a few years ago. too much money, possible law suits, insurance co.'s, and reputations involved for us to be informed. why should we know anyway? we're only the life-blood of the game. please read the following link when you have the time.

Gary Nolan Surgery | Joe Posnanski

the reds have a goodly amount of young pitchers. well, fairly young by nolan standards. but, by today's standards; young. lorenzen, stephenson, garret, desclafani, moscot, iglesias, contreras, cingrani, travieso, howard, holmberg, stephens, strahan, and more. like the excitement in going to watch nolan in '67' - i think half of these young pitchers will develop into a good reason to attend gabp in 2016 ->. get a couple athletic (fast, good + gloves, w/ on-base ability) corner outfielders and the reds might have something. that's right, get as much as you can, as soon as you can, for bruce. imo, it makes the most sense from a roster and organizational standpoint. it has to; i don't think there's any other logical choice. also, if hamilton thinks he will get on base more batting only right-handed, then -for god sake- let him do it. the current reds roster does not reflect the type of baseball price purportedly wants to effectuate.

 

[JohnU]

Nolan's story is fascinating. Kinda makes you wonder about all the other guys in history who pitched 2 or 3 years -- Fidrych, Wayne Simpson, etc. etc. etc.

Still, these are human machines, not machine machines. One size does not fit all when it comes to fixing an injury. And part of it is inside the recovery process. What caused the problem is typically doing the things one has to do to perform that role in the first place. Pitchers don't hurt their elbows by selling insurance.

 

[JohnU]

Reading the comments and commentary, it sounds like we are blaming Dusty for things that Sparky consistently dd.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I don't remember Sparky ever having a SP (Harang)work 4 innings of relief between full starts, but the point is valid- it's not managers causing injuries, it's the human condition. Lots of speculation about how use and percieved abuse of the arm contributes, but just about all pitchers harm arms, just a matter of timing and severity.

I think there is something to preparation- building up to the 200 plus IP of a MLB SP, but I wonder in reality, if the last pitch thrown before an injury is to blame, or the 100,000 previous ones.

 

[JohnU]

Well, since 2014 ... Bailey, Cingrani, Marshall, Parra, Moscot ... the main ones ... all spending some time on the shelf. Dusty left in 2013, so that's not it. Sparky is dead, so that's not it.
Let's see ... other teams with pitchers out ... Wainwright, Garcia, Lynn, Motte, Carp ... nope, Dusty didn't manage the Cardinals.
Cain, Giants, Rhu, Dodgers, Hernandez, Marlins, Morton, Pirates, Lee, Phillies, Harvey, Mets, Darvich, Rangers ... I am spotting something of a trend here ... managers just ruin their pitchers.

What other explanation can there be?

 

[Redsfan1507]

Lol. I hear David was on the DL after his strikeout of Goliath. Hard to argue with God's will.

It's USE that causes it. abUSE and misUSE is just blame for use. If blame ever resolved anything, there would be no people left to notice.

ALL pitchers and maybe all players get hurt. Hell, my arm hurts now, and I've had surgery AND 30 years of rest.

Moscot got hurt because he forgot PFP 101, technically root cause was NOT enough reps at running the pickle play, instead of overuse. Unless Mesoraco's impingement was caused from displaced bone, or increased soft tissue, or calcium or scar deposit, or using the joint in a completely new way, I'd say he was born with it, and just recently became a problem. Cozart might have avoided his injury by not running, but that wouldn't work.

You can overwork to injury. You can injure by too little work (conditioning), but the best prepared and rested athletes still get hurt. It is what it is.

 

[JohnU]

The guys who are in the H of F or should be are the freaks of nature. Rose, Bench, Perez, even guys you don't think about ... Tony Taylor, Biggio ... they were either just not hurt that much or were so damned productive when they played that we don't notice. Bench missed a few games.

Ernie Banks and Aaron were hardly ever on the DL. Of course, they would be earning $500M to play now.

Looking back at history's top pitchers -- Spahn, Seaver, Gibson of the "modern" era ... and then looking at guys like Matt Kemp or Tulowitski ... it's a freak show for sure. They used to blame the Astroturf for some of that, maybe which was what ended Eric Davis's career early ... then along came PEDs.

Still I think the reason the pitchers are getting hurt is because of the forkball and the cutter. Some guys can naturally throw it and some guys can't. But if you can't, you have an ERA of 3.60, which at one time was considered fairly decent. Now you need a "whip" of 0.55.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Way back when I was a kid, I bet I threw 150-200 throws a DAY, from February or March, to whenever the snow flies. Like most catchers playing until old enough to buy a legal beer, I also pitched. I never threw a slider, back in my day called a "little curveball" or "slurve", but as a fan of Juan Marichal, I threw about everything else. 2 and 4 seamer, both could be cut, straight and circle change, a splitter ( called a forkball then),a knuckleball, a normal curveball and the 12-6 overhand variety you released like a yo-yo.

The only pitch that ever hurt me was the screwball. Gave me a horribly sore forearm just below the bend in the elbow, and was told to stop throwing it.

Didnt stop them from expecting me to keep throwing the other pitches, or every other day of the week as a catcher though. I dont think many pitchers threw much harder than i did, and the typical teenage catcher bound for post high school baseball still might throw 100 times a day, but no one puts a count on them. I never heard of a catcher having Tommy John until recently- a torn rotator cuff was the death sentance back then, and they were rare.

I suspect a normal 190 lb playing weight might in my day, be more like 220 in the PED era though...and maybe that extra bulk might bust more arms now. They monitor young players more now, and conditioning is different now, I know that... but they haven't developed any new pitches or drastically different speeds on them in about a century. They have developed a lot of new surgeries, but so far no methods of preventing the need for them. Must be a clue there somewhere.

 

[chico ruiz]

my previous post was mostly meant to inspire and bring levity through humor. you know, the 'dentist'.' kremchek is actually a oral surgeon? anyone? anyone? not very funny i suspect. mostly, i'm optimistic about the reds young crop of pitchers. lorenzen and moscot are impressive young adults who seem to have their heads screwed on right. statistics not withstanding, and giving jocketty and castellini the benefit of the doubt, simon did have some fairly serious off-field issues. and some of the latos interviews i read and watched, while he was a red, sounded like they were coming out the mouth of a 14 year old. he flitted around, in mind and body, like he just wasn't all there. the gist of the post was ++ reds farm pitching and attempted to answer hit-n-n-run's question: why re-up on 2016 season tickets? it will be exciting to watch these young pitchers come up and develop this year and next. i think a couple of them will be better than bailey. walt was just a couple 3 or 4 years behind the curve.

shifting gears, but focusing on the 'moving forward' theme. i could not agree more with 1507's 'fundamentals' postings. they are accurate and are more important than the casual fan knows. fundamentals, single-minded focus, and hump busting is what made rose and jeter great. both have admitted to not having great natural talent. jeter focused on hitting inside, on the black, pitches consistently. rose focused on switch-hitting and everything else, including playing every position on the field. i've heard ny fans say that pete was the best, most authentic, ballplayer they ever saw play. ny loves a winner. but, ny loves someone who gets up after being knocked down without whining even more. a player that takes their lumps with grace and continues passionately with unswerving energy is baseball deity.

anyway, both of those players busted their asses on the fundamentals. now, these may seem like old-timey values to some, but i hold them near and dear. there was a time when i thought that was what set reds baseball apart from other ball clubs. see, i still call them 'ball clubs.' i know the game has changed. hell, i research, study, and video it almost every day. here's the subtext: as of today, the rays and royals are in first place. why? 1507 knows why, and so do i. they execute the above referenced baseball precepts more consistently than the rest. if you can, watch them play, and make your own judgements.

finally, circling back to the subject of this thread, zack cozart's blown out knee. cozart isn't jeter or rose. but, what i have seen from cozart is superior effort every single play. when it was going bad for him last year (real bad) he still was busting it home to first. he was unrelenting. it's hard to be overly critical of a player like that. he tore his knee up doing the exact same thing this year that he's done virtually his entire reds career; busting his ass. the cincinnati writers don't mention that or any of the other nuances that make the biggest differences in successful baseball teams. but, that's another story, or not. regardless, zack cozart will get back up and continue busting his hump.