CFP + New Year's 6 Bowl Projections (Post Week 8)

[michaeljordan_fan]

Peach Bowl: (1) Alabama vs. (4) Oklahoma
Fiesta Bowl: (2) Ohio State vs. (3) Clemson

Cotton Bowl: Florida vs. Cincy
Orange Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Wake Forest
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Penn State
Sugar Bowl: LSU vs. Baylor

Reminder of the Tie-Ins
Rose: BigTen vs. PAC-12
Sugar: SEC vs. BigXII
Orange: ACC vs. BigTen OR SEC OR Notre Dame
Cotton: no tie-in

Every year the G5 team is forced to go to the Peach, Fiesta, or Cotton. Since the Peach and Fiesta are the semifinals, that means they are going to the Cotton.


What happened this week:
Wisconsin was the shocker of the week. This loss knocks Wisky completely out of the NY6 picture for now, but they have some big games they can use to play their way back in.

Boise State faceplanted against the Mormons, dealing a serious blow to their NY6 chances. At this time, I project the AAC championship to be between Cincy and SMU, with SMU securing the victory, and a NY6 invite. If both suffer losses between now and then, the unthinkable could happen with a Sun Belt team heading to the Cotton Bowl.

Penn State looked good enough against Michigan for me to put them in the Rose Bowl. Their opponent, Oregon, locked up the PAC12 north as they now have a commanding lead. Utah could challenge Oregon in the PAC12 championship game.

Texas escaped with a win vs. Kansas in a game they probably should have lost. At this time, I can no longer project in Texas as a NY6 team, although Baylor certainly has had some squeakers as well.

Texas no longer being in the Sugar Bowl opens up the Sugar Bowl for LSU to face a different BigXII team, since there is no longer a rematch.

The ACC continues to look like utter garbage after Clemson, but someone in the ACC will have to be selected to the Orange Bowl, even if none are ranked.




As always, feel free to comment on the above projections, or better yet...post your own.

 

[Chewbaccer]

How is Cincy the G5 representative?

SMU and App State are undefeated with wins over P5 teams.

 

[michaeljordan_fan]

How is Cincy the G5 representative?

SMU and App State are undefeated with wins over P5 teams.

SMU and Cincy play in the AAC championship. Currently, I believe Cincy will win that game. If you believe the opposite, feel free to put SMU in.

 

[michaeljordan_fan]

I see that I goofed in my explanation of Cincy vs. SMU in the OP. Currently I project Cincy to beat SMU, which is why they are in the Cotton.

 

[Chewbaccer]

I see that I goofed in my explanation of Cincy vs. SMU in the OP. Currently I project Cincy to beat SMU, which is why they are in the Cotton.

That's what caused my confusion.

 

[Ickey Shuffle]

Peach Bowl: (1) Ohio State vs. (4) Oklahoma
Fiesta Bowl: (2) Alabama vs. (3) Clemson

Cotton Bowl: Florida vs. Cincinnati
Orange Bowl: Notre Dame vs. ?
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Penn State
Sugar Bowl: LSU vs. Baylor

 

[Ickey Shuffle]

I really want to put LSU in the playoffs, but they gotta prove they can beat Bama. Still a ? for the second ACC rep.

 

[ralphiewvu]

Peach Bowl 1) LSU vs 4) Oklahoma
Fiesta Bowl 2) Ohio State vs 3) Clemson

Cotton Bowl SMU vs Georgia
Orange Bowl Notre Dame vs Virginia
Rose Bowl Penn State vs Oregon
Sugar Bowl Alabama vs Texas

 

[michaeljordan_fan]

Peach Bowl 1) LSU vs 4) Oklahoma
Fiesta Bowl 2) Ohio State vs 3) Clemson

Cotton Bowl SMU vs Georgia
Orange Bowl Notre Dame vs Virginia
Rose Bowl Penn State vs Oregon
Sugar Bowl Alabama vs Texas

I thought about Virginia, but I think the Orange Bowl will want to avoid a regular season rematch.

 

[ralphiewvu]

I thought about Virginia, but I think the Orange Bowl will want to avoid a regular season rematch.

I hear ya. But I think it’d be tough to justify putting in someone else from the ACC if UVA is Clemson’s sacrificial lamb in the ACC CHAMP GAME.

 

[michaeljordan_fan]

I hear ya. But I think it’d be tough to justify putting in someone else from the ACC if UVA is Clemson’s sacrificial lamb in the ACC CHAMP GAME.

UVA would likely have 4 losses as well.

 

[ralphiewvu]

UVA would likely have 4 losses as well.

But do you really think they’d put in someone that finished worse in the ACC or someone that UVA beat? I don’t see it but time will tell.

What the process for ND missing out? Would 3 losses do that?

 

[michaeljordan_fan]

But do you really think they’d put in someone that finished worse in the ACC or someone that UVA beat? I don’t see it but time will tell.

What the process for ND missing out? Would 3 losses do that?

ND probably needs 2 more losses.

ACC standing isn't relevant for who the Orange picks.

 

[ralphiewvu]

ND probably needs 2 more losses.

ACC standing isn't relevant for who the Orange picks.

Yeah I don’t see 2 more losses for ND.

I get it. I’m just wondering if they feel like putting in a wake forest who may finish lower in the standings is right.

 

[michaeljordan_fan]

Yeah I don’t see 2 more losses for ND.

I get it. I’m just wondering if they feel like putting in a wake forest who may finish lower in the standings is right.

 

[ralphiewvu]

I hear ya, justification is a better word. But the Orange bowl like all the others don’t care. They just want the best matchup. I’m sure they would absolutely love Miami to give them a chance to pick them.

 

[michaeljordan_fan]

I hear ya, justification is a better word. But the Orange bowl like all the others don’t care. They just want the best matchup. I’m sure they would absolutely love Miami to give them a chance to pick them.

If an ACC team finishes the season with a little number next to their name they'll get selected...if not its anyone's guess.

 

[Chewbaccer]

Do any of the other conferences ever have to play the G5 representative? It's a bit of a slap in the face to have a good enough season to make a New Years 6 bowl, only to have to play a G5 team where you are in a no win situation. I get it, someone has to do it, but spread it around a little bit.

 

[michaeljordan_fan]

Do any of the other conferences ever have to play the G5 representative? It's a bit of a slap in the face to have a good enough season to make a New Years 6 bowl, only to have to play a G5 team where you are in a no win situation. I get it, someone has to do it, but spread it around a little bit.

The G5 will always be playing an at-large team. The SEC has the at-large teams. If you are advocating for SEC teams to not get the at-large bids, I think the other conferences would be fine with that.

 

[ralphiewvu]

Do any of the other conferences ever have to play the G5 representative? It's a bit of a slap in the face to have a good enough season to make a New Years 6 bowl, only to have to play a G5 team where you are in a no win situation. I get it, someone has to do it, but spread it around a little bit.

I think the problem with that is usually the SEC has more teams go to these so it’s more than likely they’ll play the G5.