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BYU thinking Big 12 soon?

CoolBeans

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All Dressed Up and No One to Play

Posted on May 16, 2014 by kclifton Standard Reply
byu-cougars-football.jpg
An intriguing article from the Salt Lake Tribune lists a doomsday scenario for BYU’s football program: its descent into irrelevance because of lack of compelling match-ups. A program that cannot at least schedule a few marquis games will fade into obscurity. In the article, it states that although the SEC will keep its eight-game conference format but there is one stipulation to the schedule: each of the schools have to schedule at least one school from the Big 12, Big Ten, PAC-12, Notre Dame or the ACC to act as a ninth game. This does not bode well for BYU at all. Not even able to find any breathing room, BYU finds itself in short supply of opponents in the upcoming seasons. Georgia Tech has backed out of games with BYU and others have too. There are a total of 65 schools in the Power Five conferences and BYU is not number 66. BYU is in panic mode.​
Two weeks ago, when this article came out, Mike Slive, commissioner of the SEC and Tom Holmoe, AD for BYU, had a brief but cordial meeting with each other. When I say the meeting went cordially, it does not necessarily mean if it was productive or not. BYU rarely plays SEC schools and vice versa. As a matter of fact, this spells bad news for not only BYU but for schools in the Sun Belt, MAC, Mountain West, C-USA, or the AAC. It looks like that what some experts say might be true: that the Power Five might end up creating a separate league from the rest of the FBS schools. BYU will go into a death spiral if this happens. BYU is what I would call a “cusp” program. They are not an elite program right now but you would not also call them a mid-major.​
If Mr. Holmoe was not panicking before, he should be now. Holmoe should be in conversations with any league he can talk to. If there was a league he needs to have a powwow with, it is the Big 12. When the Big 12 was shopping for schools in 2011, BYU was one of the possibilities. BYU had left the Mountain West in 2010 and tried its luck at independence. Currently, BYU earns about $6 million a year with its contract with ESPN and has rights to rebroadcasts home games through BYUtv. Back in 2011, Holmoe states that BYU and the Big 12 never received no kind of invitation from the Big 12 or even any kind of communication with them whatsoever.​
In the long run, an independent BYU will die on the vine when it has been relegated as a total mid-major, scrambling for opponents late in the year like Idaho or Akron. With the deals that schools like the SEC are making, scheduling games later in the year has become that much more difficult for BYU. For example, you already have inherent match-ups in the SEC and ACC like Georgia-Georgia Tech, South Carolina-Clemson, Florida-Florida State, Kentucky-Louisville and since this will be the norm, Vanderbilt would like reschedule the rivalry it had with Wake Forest, Texas A&M with Texas, Missouri against Kansas, etc. This along with conferences like the Big 12, Big Ten, and PAC-12 playing nine-game schedules and the ACC contemplating a nine-game schedule, scheduling will be impossible for BYU later in the season. A scheduling arrangement with the AAC or the Mountain West may be an option but I this would just be a death sentence for the football program.​
In closing, BYU has to join a conference and if they want to they still want to be in the big boys tent, the Big 12 is their only choice because the PAC-12 is a secular conference that does not want a religious-based school. BYU has a similar football-first culture like the majority of the Big 12 schools have. BYU does not necessarily need the money but $20 million sounds a lot better than $6 million. Also, BYU will effectively be in a more national conference and in an elite conference. The Big 12 would get a school that has the facilities already in place to compete with the rest of the Big 12 schools. Also, the Big 12 would get a school with a national following with the eyes of 15 million Mormons worldwide and a toehold in the West. Quite a few Pacific Islanders are Mormons and attend BYU, which schools like Texas, who by the way, is losing the battle in their home state, could tap this well for recruits. The Big 12 could then add another school and have enough to host a conference championship game. BYU cannot survive on their own and the Big 12 will continue to lag behind in the arms race if they do not expand their footprint.​
As an addendum to this piece, here is another article from fbschedules.com that states that the ACC will have the same arrangement as the SEC and that also, they do not consider BYU as a P5 opponent.​
 

CoolBeans

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BYU football: New SEC schedule format sets off alarms for Holmoe College football • BYU not among the schools that meet league’s non-conference requirement.
By jay drew
The Salt Lake Tribune
Published: May 2, 2014 06:06PM
Updated: May 4, 2014 03:01PM
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Francisco Kjolseth | The Salt Lake Tribune


BYU's Athletic Director Tom Holmoe is happy with the move to independence in football, saying he would do it again. “It has given us new energy and additional opportunities. We were in a good spot before, but I believe we are better off now.”
At first glance, the announcement earlier this week from the SEC that it would keep its eight-game conference schedule (and not go to nine games like the Pac-12 and Big 12 have done and Big Ten will do in 2016) appeared to be good news for BYU. Obviously, the fewer conference games teams are forced to play means the more games they have available to play independents such as BYU.
Plus, the ACC is said to have been monitoring what the SEC was going to do, and is expected to follow suit.
But there was a caveat that accompanied the SEC’s announcement that should give BYU fans pause, and apparently has already caused some concern for BYU athletic director Tom Holmoe.
The SEC is requiring that all its schools play at least one opponent from the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten or Pac-12 on an annual basis beginning in 2016. Notre Dame is considered part of the 65 schools that comprise the so-called Big Five, although the Irish aren’t technically full members of the ACC in football.
BYU is not considered one of the schools that would fill the out-of-conference requirement, Slive confirmed to national reporters Monday.
That’s where BYU’s Holmoe comes in.
ESPN’s Joe Schad bumped into Holmoe at the commissioners’ college football playoff meetings in Dallas (Las Colinas, actually) on Monday and tweeted: “BYU AD Tom Holmoe said he plans to speak w/Mike Slive about if his program meets the SEC’s new scheduling requirements.”
Holmoe declined several interview requests with local media members after Schad’s tweet, according to BYU associate athletic director for communications Duff Tittle. However, Tittle said that Holmoe acknowledged talking briefly with Slive in Dallas.
“Tom had a brief, cordial conversation with Mike Slive yesterday,” Tittle said this week. “It went well and they agreed that they would get back together and talk about it down the road sometime, probably this summer.”
BYU hasn’t typically played a lot of SEC teams, but at least it sounds like Holmoe is concerned enough about the probable exclusion to ask Slive for the consideration. In three years as an independent, BYU has played just one SEC team, beating Ole Miss 14-13 in Oxford in the 2011 opener. The Cougars had a home-and-home with Mississippi State during the Gary Crowton era more than a decade ago.
It might come down to whether Slive and Co. believe games against BYU adds to SEC teams’ strength-of-schedule, because if the talks in Dallas about how teams will be selected for the CFP showed us anything, it is that strength of schedule is going to be important. Then again, adding BYU to the list could open Pandora’s Box. If games against the Cougars fulfill the requirement, why wouldn’t games against other high-profile non-power conference teams to the same thing?
Whatever the case, the SEC’s scheduling announcement and the news last week that the NCAA is considering a restructuring that will grant more autonomy to the power conference schools to make their own rules regarding student-athlete stipends and cost-of-attendance stipends, etc., can’t be considered good news for BYU, or members of the MWC such as Utah State.

[email protected]
Twitter: @drewjay
 

Slaton10

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Inevitable that BYU ends up in the Big12........It may even spur UTAH to think down the road about reversing course and consider the Big 12.........Time and money is on the Big 12' side...
 

CoolBeans

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Inevitable that BYU ends up in the Big12........It may even spur UTAH to think down the road about reversing course and consider the Big 12.........Time and money is on the Big 12' side...


I believe the "power 5" will all end up with 14-16 schools.


Initially, I think BYU and Cincinnati end up in the BIg 12. Look for #13 and #14 to be Florida State and Clemson.


Look for the ACC to then add UConn, UCF, USF and either Navy or East Carolina to end up with 16.


Look for Notre Dame to finally wake up and Join the B1G Ten. Look for the 16th school to be an Illinois school like UNI or a New England school like UMass.


The PAC 12 will become the PAC16. I think they add San Diego St., Hawaii, Boise St., and either UNLV or Fresno St.


The SEC will choose other schools, and I think they will be in Texas. Right now, I'd say Houston and SMU, but in 10 years that could change.


I then think the BIg 12 will take two more schools after this to get to 16 like the other four conferences. I think they actually end up with Northern Illinois (Big Ten getting UMass) after a major renovation there and Colorado St. The Big 12 would basically have 4 "pods" that would play each other every year.


POD A: Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St.
POD B: Northern Illinois , Iowa St., Kansas, Kansas St.
POD C: Florida St., Clemson, WVU, Cincinnati
POD D: TCU, Colorado St., BYU, Baylor


I think with $$$$ on the table, I think a "conference tournament" would happen. You'd play each team in your "pod" and one team from each other pod. That's "six" regular season games. Then the "other three" would be the first three rounds of a seeded tournament. The schools would agree to split money on the last three games, the highest seed getting a home game. Once there was a "loss"; made for TV match-ups could be made for the losers of round 1 and 2 to get their final game(s). This would require a NCAA or Power 5 rule change...but can happen.


These next 18 months are the calm before the storm...
 

Tharvot

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Inevitable that BYU ends up in the Big12........It may even spur UTAH to think down the road about reversing course and consider the Big 12.........Time and money is on the Big 12' side...


I believe the "power 5" will all end up with 14-16 schools.


Initially, I think BYU and Cincinnati end up in the BIg 12. Look for #13 and #14 to be Florida State and Clemson.


Look for the ACC to then add UConn, UCF, USF and either Navy or East Carolina to end up with 16.


Look for Notre Dame to finally wake up and Join the B1G Ten. Look for the 16th school to be an Illinois school like UNI or a New England school like UMass.


The PAC 12 will become the PAC16. I think they add San Diego St., Hawaii, Boise St., and either UNLV or Fresno St.


The SEC will choose other schools, and I think they will be in Texas. Right now, I'd say Houston and SMU, but in 10 years that could change.


I then think the BIg 12 will take two more schools after this to get to 16 like the other four conferences. I think they actually end up with Northern Illinois (Big Ten getting UMass) after a major renovation there and Colorado St. The Big 12 would basically have 4 "pods" that would play each other every year.


POD A: Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St.
POD B: Northern Illinois , Iowa St., Kansas, Kansas St.
POD C: Florida St., Clemson, WVU, Cincinnati
POD D: TCU, Colorado St., BYU, Baylor


I think with $$$$ on the table, I think a "conference tournament" would happen. You'd play each team in your "pod" and one team from each other pod. That's "six" regular season games. Then the "other three" would be the first three rounds of a seeded tournament. The schools would agree to split money on the last three games, the highest seed getting a home game. Once there was a "loss"; made for TV match-ups could be made for the losers of round 1 and 2 to get their final game(s). This would require a NCAA or Power 5 rule change...but can happen.


These next 18 months are the calm before the storm...

:hellno:

Really, none of the moves you mentioned make the conferences any better except the B12...which somehow pulls FSU and Clemson, eh? Why would they want to leave the ACC for the shitty B12? Doesn't make any sense at all.

The B12 is left picking scraps. They can land BYU maybe and Cincy. Certainly, SMU and Houston would love to join. None of these schools brings any wow factor and none of them are going to get UT or OU boosters too giddy.
 

Mac_Bridger

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Too many schools. No, one of the "power 5" will be cannibalized. The Big East is already dead, so the question is, who's next? It would be either the Big XII or ACC. The Big XII's geography puts it in position to be robbed by ALL the others. The ACC shares it's footprint with the SEC and will always be little brother. I can see a situation where the B1G, Big XII and SEC dismantle or at least cripple the ACC. 4 teams get into the "playoffs". You'll have 4 conferences.
 

Mac_Bridger

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:hellno:

Really, none of the moves you mentioned make the conferences any better except the B12...which somehow pulls FSU and Clemson, eh? Why would they want to leave the ACC for the shitty B12? Doesn't make any sense at all.

The B12 is left picking scraps. They can land BYU maybe and Cincy. Certainly, SMU and Houston would love to join. None of these schools brings any wow factor and none of them are going to get UT or OU boosters too giddy.
Clemson and FSU would leave for $$. Their addition to the Big XII would require a new media rights deal which would propel the Big XII payout even higher. Remember, the Big XII already has better media rights than the ACC.
 

Anotherwvufan

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Looks like you guys have it all figured out. Now go get that job as conference commissioner.
 

The Derski

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Inevitable that BYU ends up in the Big12........It may even spur UTAH to think down the road about reversing course and consider the Big 12.........Time and money is on the Big 12' side...

You're joking right? The only reason the big 12 still exists is Texas and if you say otherwise you are delusional. The PAC 12 is much more desirable. Wow
 

CoolBeans

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Ok Travot, I'll bite...


I have a real hard time thinking Notre Dame would not help the Big Ten's worth. UMass would give Rutgers a Rival partner, plus add the Boston Media market.


Hawaii adds a TV time slot that no one else will have, which is "indirect" value but value nonetheless. San Diego St., well, SAN DIEGO TV market. Boise St. adds intrigue, and Fresno St. adds another California school, the largest not in the PAC. That is why I think UNLV, with Vegas...could somehow sneak in.


Another Texas School would help solidifiy the SEC in the old SWC region, with Arky and TA&M already there. Houston seems a good fit. SMU rounds out the Old SWC POD.


If you read any Illinois state politics, there is a "push" to get another Illinios school up to the "bigtime" level, and they are willing to pour the money in to do it. I don't think the Big 10 would bite on UNI, but the Big 12 getting in on the Chicago TV market, especially after adding Cincinnati seems to make sense. BYU will need a geographical partner, and that to me seems to be Colorado St.


There is already talk of expanding the playoff to 6 or 8. That opens a 5th conference. Now, where this could go to a four conference thing, IMHO, is if conferences go to TWENTY schools with four Pods of 5 schools.


5x 16=80
4x16=80


The markets to get "all" the big boys seems to be in the seventies, not under 64. College Football is a "state/regional" sport. Leaving out the BYU's, Boise's, Cincinnatti's, Hawaii's, and UConn's of the world is a bad business model in the long run.


Just my take.
 

Tharvot

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Ok Travot, I'll bite...


I have a real hard time thinking Notre Dame would not help the Big Ten's worth. UMass would give Rutgers a Rival partner, plus add the Boston Media market.


Hawaii adds a TV time slot that no one else will have, which is "indirect" value but value nonetheless. San Diego St., well, SAN DIEGO TV market. Boise St. adds intrigue, and Fresno St. adds another California school, the largest not in the PAC. That is why I think UNLV, with Vegas...could somehow sneak in.


Another Texas School would help solidifiy the SEC in the old SWC region, with Arky and TA&M already there. Houston seems a good fit. SMU rounds out the Old SWC POD.


If you read any Illinois state politics, there is a "push" to get another Illinios school up to the "bigtime" level, and they are willing to pour the money in to do it. I don't think the Big 10 would bite on UNI, but the Big 12 getting in on the Chicago TV market, especially after adding Cincinnati seems to make sense. BYU will need a geographical partner, and that to me seems to be Colorado St.


There is already talk of expanding the playoff to 6 or 8. That opens a 5th conference. Now, where this could go to a four conference thing, IMHO, is if conferences go to TWENTY schools with four Pods of 5 schools.


5x 16=80
4x16=80


The markets to get "all" the big boys seems to be in the seventies, not under 64. College Football is a "state/regional" sport. Leaving out the BYU's, Boise's, Cincinnatti's, Hawaii's, and UConn's of the world is a bad business model in the long run.


Just my take.

B1G: ND obviously would help anyone huge. So, I just discount them in the mix all together. UMass isn't really a football school, though I suppose you could say the same thing about Rutgers and UMD too. The Boston market isn't all that coveted tbh if Rutgers' proximity can bring in NYC. ND would be a huge help to the Northeast market for the B1G, but outside of that there is no school that really brings it in. The B1G's main goal now is to expand southwards into markets that are growing in population. Think Missouri (tho that ship has sailed it seems), Virginia, North Carolina. Another dream scenario would be to pull UT and OU from the B12.

PAC: The PAC's biggest problem is their time slot. They are separated from prime time on the east coast and perpetually complain about east coast bias. Adding Hawaii, a school even further to the west does not help at all...not to mention Hawaii brings nothing to the table outside of a vacation destination game. There are no remaining west coast schools that bring anything to the table for the PAC. Their best potential grabs left are Boise and BYU, neither of which are high on the list thanks to the Cali schools' demands for academics and general distaste for mormans. Outside of that, their best hope is to pilfer a couple B12 schools.

ACC: The B1G shattered the ACC's pipedream of commanding the entire east coast from Boston to Miami by snagging Rutgers and Maryland. The ACC still stands very strong with 14 members now with Louisville in the mix. IF they wanted to add a school, the most sensible pick would be UConn and either Cincy or one of the Florida schools...UCF or USF, though they have the Florida market pretty covered with FSU and Miami. IF they can convince ND to become a full-time member, they can just add UConn and call it a day and a tremendous conference. WVU could possibly fit into this mix as a partner with UConn, but I'm not sure your Mountaineers will pass muster with the academic demands of UVA, UNC, Dook, etc. Would be a good fit tho.

SEC: They seem content with 14 at the moment and if they choose to expand, I don't see the conference going after anyone but a huge market name (think UT and OU). Unlikely, but if either the SEC or B1G were able to convince UT and OU to make the switch, they would be the #1 power conference w/o rival.

that leaves the B12 They are the bottom of the power 5 conferences now and are basically a re-imagined SWC with a few schools outside of Texas and Oklahoma. Their only real expansion candidates are the smaller, also-rans left out there: UNLV, BYU, Boise, & Cincy. The B12 should have jumped at the opportunity to get L-Ville, but they couldn't get it done. Certainly, Houston and SMU would be thrilled with an invite too, but the conference is already very Red River centric. I don't see the B12 being able to pull schools from other power conferences simply because it doesn't offer anything outside of maybe a few extra $ if you're from the ACC. The cost of that $$ is you are stuck in a very region-centric conf that has little national exposure outside of UT and OU. Not exactly compelling for the FSUs and Clemsons of the world.

There's my take on the expansion landscape.
 

Mac_Bridger

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B1G: ND obviously would help anyone huge. So, I just discount them in the mix all together. UMass isn't really a football school, though I suppose you could say the same thing about Rutgers and UMD too. The Boston market isn't all that coveted tbh if Rutgers' proximity can bring in NYC. ND would be a huge help to the Northeast market for the B1G, but outside of that there is no school that really brings it in. The B1G's main goal now is to expand southwards into markets that are growing in population. Think Missouri (tho that ship has sailed it seems), Virginia, North Carolina. Another dream scenario would be to pull UT and OU from the B12.

Agree with you, except for Texas and OU. The B1G seems to be steadfast in going for AAU accredited schools. I was personally leaning toward UVA for them.

PAC: The PAC's biggest problem is their time slot. They are separated from prime time on the east coast and perpetually complain about east coast bias. Adding Hawaii, a school even further to the west does not help at all...not to mention Hawaii brings nothing to the table outside of a vacation destination game. There are no remaining west coast schools that bring anything to the table for the PAC. Their best potential grabs left are Boise and BYU, neither of which are high on the list thanks to the Cali schools' demands for academics and general distaste for mormans. Outside of that, their best hope is to pilfer a couple B12 schools.

Agree in entirety.

ACC : The B1G shattered the ACC's pipedream of commanding the entire east coast from Boston to Miami by snagging Rutgers and Maryland. The ACC still stands very strong with 14 members now with Louisville in the mix. IF they wanted to add a school, the most sensible pick would be UConn and either Cincy or one of the Florida schools...UCF or USF, though they have the Florida market pretty covered with FSU and Miami. IF they can convince ND to become a full-time member, they can just add UConn and call it a day and a tremendous conference. WVU could possibly fit into this mix as a partner with UConn, but I'm not sure your Mountaineers will pass muster with the academic demands of UVA, UNC, Dook, etc. Would be a good fit tho.

The ACC wants nothing to do with WVU. They would rather invite North Dakota State. They have sPitt and both are in the same TV market.UConn is a possibility as is Cincy.

SEC: They seem content with 14 at the moment and if they choose to expand, I don't see the conference going after anyone but a huge market name (think UT and OU). Unlikely, but if either the SEC or B1G were able to convince UT and OU to make the switch, they would be the #1 power conference w/o rival.

UT and OU will follow the money. The reason they didn't run for the PAC is because they make more in the Big XII due to tier 3 rights. You're right though, the SEC will only take a major player which means a raid on the ACC or Big XII.

that leaves the B12 They are the bottom of the power 5 conferences now and are basically a re-imagined SWC with a few schools outside of Texas and Oklahoma. Their only real expansion candidates are the smaller, also-rans left out there: UNLV, BYU, Boise, & Cincy. The B12 should have jumped at the opportunity to get L-Ville, but they couldn't get it done. Certainly, Houston and SMU would be thrilled with an invite too, but the conference is already very Red River centric. I don't see the B12 being able to pull schools from other power conferences simply because it doesn't offer anything outside of maybe a few extra $ if you're from the ACC. The cost of that $$ is you are stuck in a very region-centric conf that has little national exposure outside of UT and OU. Not exactly compelling for the FSUs and Clemsons of the world.

There's my take on the expansion landscape.

Ah, but right now FSU and Clemson are feeding the ACC. With them the $$ gets even bigger in the Big XII and the ACC starts to dry up. (The same would be true if the Big XII lost UT and OU.) I truely believe that either the ACC or Big XII will die before all is said and done. The question is which one. As much as I hate to admit it, I think it will be the Big XII. They remind me too much of the Big East. They're unwilling to take initiative and improve their position. We all know the ACC is more than willing to strike first.
 
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outofyourmind

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The Big12 is doomed.
Oklahoma and Oklahoma State to the SEC to make it 16.
Texas and 2 tag along schools like Tech and Baylor to the PAC along with 1 other program like a BYU, if the PAC could get their head around admitting the Baptists and the Mormons, go to 16.


Oklahoma and Texas go their separate ways with Conferences but still play the RRSO like we did for 80 years before the Big12 anyway.


Don't know what happens to any of the other schools or where they'd go
 

GoldRusher

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Too many schools. No, one of the "power 5" will be cannibalized. The Big East is already dead, so the question is, who's next? It would be either the Big XII or ACC. The Big XII's geography puts it in position to be robbed by ALL the others. The ACC shares it's footprint with the SEC and will always be little brother. I can see a situation where the B1G, Big XII and SEC dismantle or at least cripple the ACC. 4 teams get into the "playoffs". You'll have 4 conferences.

I could see this happening, but it would be the ACC AND B12 being picked apart and the leftovers merging for #4. Ive seen many articles that state that the BIG wants to go to as high as 20 teams and its no secret that they have their eyes eastward so, that leaves either the Big12's only eastern program or the ACC/SEC. I suppose one could make the argument that Mizzu would leave the SEC for the BIG but Im not sure Id buy any others following them, maybe Vandy :noidea:
 

WVUDAD

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This brings up a couple of points, the B11 wants ND in the league, and if they were to suck it up and quit scheduling them, ND would be forced to join a league, like the article about BYU said, when you play nobodies, you will not be relavant long. Second, looking at the landscape now, I think the B12 is the one that will die. The SEC and B11 can ask any school in any other league and they will pack their bags before the ink is dry. The PAC is just behind them, leaving the ACC and B12 fighting to be that fourth 16 team league, I think we will see what is left of those two after they are picked apart by the really big boys will merge. OR will the PAC, B11, and SEC focus purely on the B12 in their drive to 16 teams.
 

Mac_Bridger

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I could see this happening, but it would be the ACC AND B12 being picked apart and the leftovers merging for #4. Ive seen many articles that state that the BIG wants to go to as high as 20 teams and its no secret that they have their eyes eastward so, that leaves either the Big12's only eastern program or the ACC/SEC. I suppose one could make the argument that Mizzu would leave the SEC for the BIG but Im not sure Id buy any others following them, maybe Vandy :noidea:
Most likely. I see the B1G going after the ACC while the PAC goes after the Big XII. Then the SEC makes moves on both. I think the B1G and SEC are close enough that there won't be any schools flipping from those conferences. This much is certain, conference realignment is not yet complete.
 

Slaton10

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You're joking right? The only reason the big 12 still exists is Texas and if you say otherwise you are delusional. The PAC 12 is much more desirable. Wow


I think you should go back and maybe check what the payouts are per team before you come on here thinking people are crazy..before you start talking crazy!:lol:
 

Mac_Bridger

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He's right Slaton. But Texas (and OU) make(s) more money in the Big XII than they would have in the PAC 12.
 

WVUDAD

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The per team payout of the B12 while it looks good now, will not look so good if one of the PAC, SEC, or B11 can lure OU or UT out of the B12. The SEC and B11 have some mighty deep pockets, and can pay whatever is needed to get what they want. Anyone who even has an inkling the B11 will invite WVU to join their league needs to say hello to Peter Pan for us.
 
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