Bracket based on distance between school and arena

[gordontrue]

Every year, just for fun, I make a bracket based on the number of miles between the school and the arena the game is played in. The closer school moves on. You'd be surprised how well these brackets do sometimes.

The results....

S16:
South: Florida v UCLA, Syracuse v Kansas
West: Arizona v ND State, Baylor v Wisconsin
East: Coastal Carolina v Mich St, Iowa St v Villanova
MidWest: Kentucky v NC State, Duke v Michigan

E8: Florida, Kansas, Arizona, Baylor, Coastal Car, Villanova, Kentucky, Michigan

FF: Kansas, Arizona, Villanova, Kentucky

Champion: Kansas over Kentucky


Other notable 1st-round upsets: SF Austin, LA Lafayette, St Joes


Close calls:
Coastal Carolina beat Virginia by being located 3 miles closer to PNC arena in Raleigh
SDSU beats New Mexico St by 18 miles
Kentucky beat K St by 35 miles
Michigan St beat Cinci by 35 miles
St Joes beat Uconn by 48 miles

Longest Distance:
Harvard playing 2700 miles away in Spokane

 

[dcZONAfan]

Every year, just for fun, I make a bracket based on the number of miles between the school and the arena the game is played in. The closer school moves on. You'd be surprised how well these brackets do sometimes.

The results....

S16:
South: Florida v UCLA, Syracuse v Kansas
West: Arizona v ND State, Baylor v Wisconsin
East: Coastal Carolina v Mich St, Iowa St v Villanova
MidWest: Kentucky v NC State, Duke v Michigan

E8: Florida, Kansas, Arizona, Baylor, Coastal Car, Villanova, Kentucky, Michigan

FF: Kansas, Arizona, Villanova, Kentucky

Champion: Kansas over Kentucky


Other notable 1st-round upsets: SF Austin, LA Lafayette, St Joes


Close calls:
Coastal Carolina beat Virginia by being located 3 miles closer to PNC arena in Raleigh
SDSU beats New Mexico St by 18 miles
Kentucky beat K St by 35 miles
Michigan St beat Cinci by 35 miles
St Joes beat Uconn by 48 miles

Longest Distance:
Harvard playing 2700 miles away in Spokane

I'll do my best runeman impression:

HOMER!!!! YOU CAME UP WITH THESE STATS BECAUSE THEY SUPPORT ARIZONA WINNING THE NATIONAL CHAM........oh wait, you just like stats, huh....

 

[gordontrue]

I'll do my best runeman impression:

HOMER!!!! YOU CAME UP WITH THESE STATS BECAUSE THEY SUPPORT ARIZONA WINNING THE NATIONAL CHAM........oh wait, you just like stats, huh....

 

[Monte Carlo Wildcat]

Nice Gordon. I like to use location and miles traveled when deciding between teams in my bracket. I'm hoping it works this year. Do you have any data as far as how often a team wins that plays closer to home or anything like that? I think it'd be cool to see the correlation.

 

[gordontrue]

Nice Gordon. I like to use location and miles traveled when deciding between teams in my bracket. I'm hoping it works this year. Do you have any data as far as how often a team wins that plays closer to home or anything like that? I think it'd be cool to see the correlation.

There was a study done a couple years ago on the ncaa tournament and playing close to home. Its conclusion:

Teams that play in their home state or a neighboring state gain about a 4-pt advantage in the game.
Source


Also, here's a fascinating chart from a 2012 study:

While the lower-seeded (higher-rated) teams shoot worse the further from home they are... the higher-seeded teams actually shoot a little bit better further from home.

Looks like, if you're the favorite, its good to be within 1000 miles of home.

 

[CoolStoryBro]

I'll do my best runeman impression:

HOMER!!!! YOU CAME UP WITH THESE STATS BECAUSE THEY SUPPORT ARIZONA WINNING THE NATIONAL CHAM........oh wait, you just like stats, huh....

Lol he does it because, honestly just about every stat I see from Gordon has AZ as number one, but that's just the way it is because statistics are statistics (Basicslly AZ owns kenpom etc)

 

[CoolStoryBro]

Keep it coming good shit man.

 

[JDM]

There was a study done a couple years ago on the ncaa tournament and playing close to home. Its conclusion:

Teams that play in their home state or a neighboring state gain about a 4-pt advantage in the game.
Source


Also, here's a fascinating chart from a 2012 study:

While the lower-seeded (higher-rated) teams shoot worse the further from home they are... the higher-seeded teams actually shoot a little bit better further from home.

Looks like, if you're the favorite, its good to be within 1000 miles of home.

Does that chart not show the opposite?

 

[CoolStoryBro]

Does that chart not show the opposite?

The favorite plays worse farther from home, and it appears the underdog plays better farther from home. I'm not sure on what numbers he used but that can be explained by the favorite plays worse meaning it has a higher chance of losing away from home, and the underdog has a better shooting percentage because both teams are away from the road and they have a higher chance of winning the game. Basically an inverse relationship if I am assuming the number he used were shot percentages and used total points for both teams.

 

[dcZONAfan]

Lol he does it because, honestly just about every stat I see from Gordon has AZ as number one, but that's just the way it is because statistics are statistics (Basicslly AZ owns kenpom etc)

Gordon isn't manipulating stats, Arizona simply ended up with the best resume this year because of how far ahead we were the first 21 games (and mostly because of how much better the Pac was, overall, than the SEC). too bad that arizona team isn't here right now, although the end of the season had me thinking we could play to that standard more consistently.

 

[CoolStoryBro]

Gordon isn't manipulating stats, Arizona simply ended up with the best resume this year because of how far ahead we were the first 21 games (and mostly because of how much better the Pac was, overall, than the SEC). too bad that arizona team isn't here right now, although the end of the season had me thinking we could play to that standard more consistently.

Dude I didn't say that, i basically said, albeit in different words, that AZ has great numbers so the statistics will generally show them as the favorite.

What I said about runeman is that some people will absolutely think he only posts it because it involves Arizona, I didn't say that, I said statistics are statistics.

 

[dcZONAfan]

Dude I didn't say that, i basically said, albeit in different words, that AZ has great numbers so the statistics will generally show them as the favorite.

What I said about runeman is that some people will absolutely think he only posts it because it involves Arizona, I didn't say that, I said statistics are statistics.

don't worry I know. My response was mostly for runeman, if he's watching....

 

[gordontrue]

So the distance bracket is currently sitting in the 59th percentile with 630 points... not bad for a bracket that had a 16 seed in the EE