Biggest surprises in the standings so far?

[TDs3nOut]

Teams have right around 100 games remaining, so there is obviously plenty of time for lots of changes in the standings. Still, I thought it might be interesting to discuss what features of the current standings are most surprising and how likely these features are to last.

Seems to me that the three most surprising results so far are that the Brewers and Blue Jays are both in first place and that the Giants have the largest lead of any team, a lead of 9.5 games over LAD. If one accepts the old adage that pitching tells the story over the long run, then the SFG lead is safest and the Jays lead is most precarious. Personally, however, I am not too confident that any of these three leads lasts. Thoughts?

 

[navamind]

For me, it's the Giants. I thought they'd be good enough for a WC, but I thought the Dodgers would win the division and perhaps finish with the best record in the NL.

 

[Podunkparte]

Seattle 4 games over .500 right now

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Giants. Still think they will regress some by the end of this thing.

 

[obxyankeefan]

The Marlins having stayed in playoff contention.

 

[navamind]

The Marlins having stayed in playoff contention.

Their lineup's been a lot better than expected so far. Their non-pitchers had an OPS+ of 77 last year. It's 106 right now. 2nd in the NL in runs scored right now. They scored 513 last year.

 

[ThruTheEyesOfRuby]

The aforementioned ^ ... and the fact that the AL Central is a lot closer and tighter than I would've imagined. Detroit with basically a 5 game lead on the other 4 teams who are a breath apart from each other in the standings. No outright "dog" in that division.

 

[navamind]

The aforementioned ^ ... and the fact that the AL Central is a lot closer and tighter than I would've imagined. Detroit with basically a 5 game lead on the other 4 teams who are a breath apart from each other in the standings. No outright "dog" in that division.

Twins have a lot of young talent in their lineup (Pinto, Dozier, Arcia, etc.), just signed Morales and got Willingham back recently (and he's been killing it since returning from the DL). Mauer should do better than his current stats as well. I could see them having one of the better lineups in the AL. Their pitching is a collective dumpster fire though

 

[TDs3nOut]

The Marlins having stayed in playoff contention.

That is surprising, particularly since they lost Fernandez after only eight starts.

I still expect Atlanta or Washington to win that division. Surely it will take more than 82 wins to do so.

 

[navamind]

That is surprising, particularly since they lost Fernandez after only eight starts.

I still expect Atlanta or Washington to win that division. Surely it will take more than 82 wins to do so.

Agreed. I'm leaning towards the Natinals.

 

[ThruTheEyesOfRuby]

Twins have a lot of young talent in their lineup (Pinto, Dozier, Arcia, etc.), just signed Morales and got Willingham back recently (and he's been killing it since returning from the DL). Mauer should do better than his current stats as well. I could see them having one of the better lineups in the AL. Their pitching is a collective dumpster fire though

Read an article a couple of weeks ago citing Dozier as the next Justin Upton. You know, good all-around guy, almost perpetually better-than-expected.. but not quite starpower. I don't know if I could find it now, but just by mentioning Upton and what he's contributed, I think someone of your baseball knowledge knows what I'm talking about.

I'm keeping him on my fledgling ESPN fantasy baseball team, lol.

Edit: And by "him" I mean Dozier.

 

[ThruTheEyesOfRuby]

That is surprising, particularly since they lost Fernandez after only eight starts.

I still expect Atlanta or Washington to win that division. Surely it will take more than 82 wins to do so.

Agreed. I'm leaning towards the Natinals.

I think what's surprising for me is that neither team has kinda run away with the division the way the Tigers, A's, Giants have. No 3,4,5 game cushion.

 

[obxyankeefan]

David Ortiz with a ninth inning homer.




No thats normal.

 

[navamind]

Read an article a couple of weeks ago citing Dozier as the next Justin Upton. You know, good all-around guy, almost perpetually better-than-expected.. but not quite starpower. I don't know if I could find it now, but just by mentioning Upton and what he's contributed, I think someone of your baseball knowledge knows what I'm talking about.

I'm keeping him on my fledgling ESPN fantasy baseball team, lol.

not really seeing it from a performance perspective. Dozier quietly had a nice year last year (batting .244/.312/.414 with a 100 OPS+ and 3.8 WAR while playing 2B). He had a slow start and was batting .197/.238/.270 on May 27. He batted .259/.335/.461 the rest of the year. Dozier's batted .247/.334/.446 (121 OPS+) over the last 365 days with 100 runs scored. His BB:K ratio is much better this year too.

Dozier's definitely underrated.

 

[navamind]

I think what's surprising for me is that neither team has kinda run away with the division the way the Tigers, A's, Giants have. No 3,4,5 game cushion.

Braves just can't get anything going on offense and their starting pitching's regressed after a blistering hot start. It's still a good rotation of course, but they had 4-5 starters with an ERA south of 2.50.

 

[TDs3nOut]

Twins have a lot of young talent in their lineup (Pinto, Dozier, Arcia, etc.), just signed Morales and got Willingham back recently (and he's been killing it since returning from the DL). Mauer should do better than his current stats as well. I could see them having one of the better lineups in the AL. Their pitching is a collective dumpster fire though

Danny Santana is another young player who has hit pretty well.

Not too surprising that Hughes, Nolasco, Pelfrey, and Gurrier aren't the solutions to their pitching problems.

 

[TDs3nOut]

David Ortiz with a ninth inning homer.




No thats normal.

Hate to say it, but he certainly has a flair for the dramatic.

 

[navamind]

Danny Santana is another young player who has hit pretty well.

Not too surprising that Hughes, Nolasco, Pelfrey, and Gurrier aren't the solutions to their pitching problems.

Hughes has actually been quite good so far for the Twins. 6-2, 3.46 ERA, 7.88 K/BB (2nd best in AL behind only David Price (who has a K/BB of 11.22!), 1.12 WHIP, and a 116 ERA+. Worth noting he's allowed 0.8 HR/9, which is currently his lowest figure since 2009 (when he pitched relief). Hughes is a flyball pitcher and Yankee Stadium didn't help him one bit. The move to Target Field really helped him. I thought Hughes was a good pickup for them.

 

[navamind]

Hate to say it, but he certainly has a flair for the dramatic.

I remember in 2010, he hit a grand slam in the 9th to pull the Sox within 1-run of the Tigers. Tigers held on to win that game though 6-5. The next day, however, Ortiz came up in the 9th with the Red Sox down by 2 and the bases loaded. He hit a 3-run double off the Monster to win the game. It was pretty awesome.

 

[obxyankeefan]

Danny Santana is another young player who has hit pretty well.

Not too surprising that Hughes, Nolasco, Pelfrey, and Gurrier aren't the solutions to their pitching problems.

Without the short porch in RF, Hughes has pitched to a full run below his career ERA. 4.44-3.46 hie ERA+ is 20 above his career 96-116 and his WHIP is .2 below his career 1.304-1.115. The only auestion is when does he fall back to his norm.