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USC among best value bets for CFB title - College Football - Travis Haney Blog - ESPN
by Travis Haney
College football futures are starting to appear here and there, and most everyone agrees that Ohio State, the reigning champs who did not lose an underclassman to the draft, is the overwhelming favorite.
But even if the Buckeyes are favored to win the 2016 title, that doesn't make them the best bet to do so. Below are some good and bad futures bets, based on the early odds. Thanks to Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook for the numbers.
Bad buys
Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1)
This feels almost like a default setting from Vegas. It's zombie thinking. Must. Make. Alabama. A. Favorite.
We're two years removed from Alabama's most recent national title, and the team has as many positional questions as we've seen since Nick Saban's first couple of seasons. For one, who the heck is going to play receiver? And there will be another new quarterback, possibly one who hasn't yet thrown a live pass.
Respect for Saban is the central reason the odds remain low, really lower than they should be. An offshoot of that is how he recruits. Even if there is turnover, and there is in 2015, Saban is still replacing talent with talent.
Alabama was still part of the initial playoff in 2014, despite it being a "down" year for the program.
Something between 10- to 15-1 feels more comfortable. Putting the Tide in the single digits suggests a reliance on reputation of the coach and program.
TCU Horned Frogs (8-1)
The Frogs, who have the third-lowest odds behind the Buckeyes and Tide, are getting a lot of love nationally. That includes Vegas, evidently. Having visited with him in the spring, coach Gary Patterson feels good about this team, too. In fact, Patterson said he feels better right now than he did at this point last year with the group that ultimately went 12-1 and just missed the playoff. An offense that returns nearly everyone, including what Patterson says is potentially the best O-line he's ever had, is a major reason why.
There are, however, a number of losses on the defensive side of the ball, including productive linebacker Paul Dawson. Additionally, longtime coordinator and Patterson confidant Dick Bumpas retired; that's sure to leave something of a void. Plus, the Frogs -- and especially Trevone Boykin, a revelation at quarterback a year ago -- were able to sneak up on the league last year; not so much in 2015. Backing up a 12-win season with the burden of great expectation, TCU becomes a stock to sell at 8-1. Somewhere between 12-1 and Baylor's 18-1 and you'd have something to consider.
Oregon Ducks (20-1)
The Ducks don't have Marcus Mariota any longer, in case you hadn't heard. It's absolutely fair to wonder just how much Mariota made the Ducks' engine go, especially once Chip Kelly left for the NFL. If Mark Helfrich really is another seamless coaching transition, just as Kelly was -- and Mike Bellotti before Kelly -- then we're about to find out, whether it's Jeff Lockie or transfer Vernon Adams starting at QB.
To be clear, Oregon showed it could win -- and win pretty big -- before it had a Heisman-winning quarterback. (Darron Thomas was not a game-changer, really.) But that has yet to be proved in Helfrich's time. Twenty-to-one is too much faith in the unknown, especially given the overall difficulty of the league. You know Stanford isn't going to stay down long.
Clemson Tigers (20-1)
The Tigers really might be the worst value on the board. The best thing Clemson has going is being in the ACC and South Carolina's no longer being at that 11-win plateau it once enjoyed.
Hurting the Tigers:
On the surface, 25-1 is pretty strong for a team that figures to be a favorite in a weak division -- and perhaps even a heavy division favorite.
But encounters with grumpy Georgia fans suggest to me there is no discernible reason to believe Mark Richt will ever break through to the CFP pantheon. If SEC supremacy hasn't happened by now -- and especially if it didn't happen when the Bulldogs needed a mere 5 yards in 2012 -- it ain't happening at all.
Borrowing from Chubbs, of "Happy Gilmore," if you can't beat the clown (Missouri), how are you ever going to beat Shooter McGavin (Saban)?
Georgia appears to be loaded, especially relative to the SEC East, and fellow coaches think a lot of Jeremy Pruitt as a defensive coordinator. But Brian Schottenheimer is a total wild-card offensive coordinator coming from the NFL, and there's that whole hump that Richt cannot seem to crest.
USC among best value bets for CFB title - College Football - Travis Haney Blog - ESPN
by Travis Haney
College football futures are starting to appear here and there, and most everyone agrees that Ohio State, the reigning champs who did not lose an underclassman to the draft, is the overwhelming favorite.
But even if the Buckeyes are favored to win the 2016 title, that doesn't make them the best bet to do so. Below are some good and bad futures bets, based on the early odds. Thanks to Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook for the numbers.
Bad buys
Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1)
This feels almost like a default setting from Vegas. It's zombie thinking. Must. Make. Alabama. A. Favorite.
We're two years removed from Alabama's most recent national title, and the team has as many positional questions as we've seen since Nick Saban's first couple of seasons. For one, who the heck is going to play receiver? And there will be another new quarterback, possibly one who hasn't yet thrown a live pass.
Respect for Saban is the central reason the odds remain low, really lower than they should be. An offshoot of that is how he recruits. Even if there is turnover, and there is in 2015, Saban is still replacing talent with talent.
Alabama was still part of the initial playoff in 2014, despite it being a "down" year for the program.
Something between 10- to 15-1 feels more comfortable. Putting the Tide in the single digits suggests a reliance on reputation of the coach and program.
TCU Horned Frogs (8-1)
The Frogs, who have the third-lowest odds behind the Buckeyes and Tide, are getting a lot of love nationally. That includes Vegas, evidently. Having visited with him in the spring, coach Gary Patterson feels good about this team, too. In fact, Patterson said he feels better right now than he did at this point last year with the group that ultimately went 12-1 and just missed the playoff. An offense that returns nearly everyone, including what Patterson says is potentially the best O-line he's ever had, is a major reason why.
There are, however, a number of losses on the defensive side of the ball, including productive linebacker Paul Dawson. Additionally, longtime coordinator and Patterson confidant Dick Bumpas retired; that's sure to leave something of a void. Plus, the Frogs -- and especially Trevone Boykin, a revelation at quarterback a year ago -- were able to sneak up on the league last year; not so much in 2015. Backing up a 12-win season with the burden of great expectation, TCU becomes a stock to sell at 8-1. Somewhere between 12-1 and Baylor's 18-1 and you'd have something to consider.
Oregon Ducks (20-1)
The Ducks don't have Marcus Mariota any longer, in case you hadn't heard. It's absolutely fair to wonder just how much Mariota made the Ducks' engine go, especially once Chip Kelly left for the NFL. If Mark Helfrich really is another seamless coaching transition, just as Kelly was -- and Mike Bellotti before Kelly -- then we're about to find out, whether it's Jeff Lockie or transfer Vernon Adams starting at QB.
To be clear, Oregon showed it could win -- and win pretty big -- before it had a Heisman-winning quarterback. (Darron Thomas was not a game-changer, really.) But that has yet to be proved in Helfrich's time. Twenty-to-one is too much faith in the unknown, especially given the overall difficulty of the league. You know Stanford isn't going to stay down long.
Clemson Tigers (20-1)
The Tigers really might be the worst value on the board. The best thing Clemson has going is being in the ACC and South Carolina's no longer being at that 11-win plateau it once enjoyed.
Hurting the Tigers:
- The team's best player, QB Deshaun Watson, is a vision, but he's returning from ACL surgery in December. Magical as he can be, he has yet to prove he can stay healthy. He had three major injuries during his freshman year.
- The playcaller who brought the offense into this millennium, Chad Morris, is now the coach at SMU. A number of rival coaches were surprised when Clemson promoted from within to fill the spot. "They could have hired just about anyone," one said.
- The strength of last season's team was a highly experienced defense, especially up front. Some good pieces such as corner Mackensie Alexander remain, but players such as linebacker Vic Beasley and tackle Grady Jarrett were heart-and-soul-type guys. Frankly, 20-1 doesn't make much sense; it would be a good number on Clemson's odds for making the four-team playoff, not winning it.
On the surface, 25-1 is pretty strong for a team that figures to be a favorite in a weak division -- and perhaps even a heavy division favorite.
But encounters with grumpy Georgia fans suggest to me there is no discernible reason to believe Mark Richt will ever break through to the CFP pantheon. If SEC supremacy hasn't happened by now -- and especially if it didn't happen when the Bulldogs needed a mere 5 yards in 2012 -- it ain't happening at all.
Borrowing from Chubbs, of "Happy Gilmore," if you can't beat the clown (Missouri), how are you ever going to beat Shooter McGavin (Saban)?
Georgia appears to be loaded, especially relative to the SEC East, and fellow coaches think a lot of Jeremy Pruitt as a defensive coordinator. But Brian Schottenheimer is a total wild-card offensive coordinator coming from the NFL, and there's that whole hump that Richt cannot seem to crest.