Any second-half effect of winning the HR Derby?

[TDs3nOut]

Despite having hit 15 HRs so far this year, Cespedes' other numbers are way down from those that he posted his rookie year last season. Whether he turns it around over the remainder of this season will probably not have much to do with having won the HR Derby last night, but it seems at least somewhat plausible to me that he could have gained additional confidence or sense of purpose that could help him improve over the rest of the season. On the other hand, it could also possibly result in him trying too hard to hit HRs, perhaps further adversely affecting his BA and OBP. Anyway, just curious if anyone has any thoughts about whether or how you might expect his performance last night to affect his play going forward.

 

[BigDDude]

Despite having hit 15 HRs so far this year, Cespedes' other numbers are way down from those that he posted his rookie year last season. Whether he turns it around over the remainder of this season will probably not have much to do with having won the HR Derby last night, but it seems at least somewhat plausible to me that he could have gained additional confidence or sense of purpose that could help him improve over the rest of the season. On the other hand, it could also possibly result in him trying too hard to hit HRs, perhaps further adversely affecting his BA and OBP. Anyway, just curious if anyone has any thoughts about whether or how you might expect his performance last night to affect his play going forward.

I only remember one story about the derby and its effect on a player. It was from 2005, when Bobby Abreu won. By many accounts, after altering his swing for maximum pop & effect, he was never able to get back on track hitting wise that year.


True or not, he did have a pretty wide split that year. In the first 1/2 pre-derby, he had 18 homers, and was hitting .307. However, in the second 1/2 (he did play full time in this 2nd 1/2), he hit only .260, with 6 homers.

 

[TDs3nOut]

I only remember one story about the derby and its effect on a player. It was from 2005, when Bobby Abreu won. By many accounts, after altering his swing for maximum pop & effect, he was never able to get back on track hitting wise that year.


True or not, he did have a pretty wide split that year. In the first 1/2 pre-derby, he had 18 homers, and was hitting .307. However, in the second 1/2 (he did play full time in this 2nd 1/2), he hit only .260, with 6 homers.

Interesting. One of the commentators during the derby last night also commented that some guys don't want to participate in the derby because they are afraid that doing so will adversely alter their swing going forward into the season. Seemed kind of dubious to me, but perhaps Abreu's experience lends some credibility to that concern.

 

[romeo212000]

Hamilton also showed a decline after competing in the derby.

 

[RobToxin]

Hamilton also showed a decline after competing in the derby.

He's talking about the homerun derby, not the beer drinking derby.

 

[TDs3nOut]

Hamilton also showed a decline after competing in the derby.

True. He is such a streaky hitter anyway, and he always seems to have some pretty flaky excuse for a slump (e.g., the extra challenge posed by having blue eyes) that I am reluctant to attribute any of his struggles to the HR Derby, but maybe it did play a role. Don't really recall, but my guess is that chasing pitches down and away was a bigger culprit.

 

[soxfan1468927]

Well last year the home run derby participants put up this slash line in the first half:

.310/.383/.575/.958, .192 ISO, 16.83 PA/HR

In the second half, however, they put up this line:

.277/.356/.461/.817, .105 ISO, 26.42 PA/HR

If I have time I'll go back further for a larger sample size, but that's a pretty significant drop after the home run derby.

 

[TDs3nOut]

Well last year the home run derby participants put up this slash line in the first half:

.310/.383/.575/.958, .192 ISO, 16.83 PA/HR

In the second half, however, they put up this line:

.277/.356/.461/.817, .105 ISO, 26.42 PA/HR

If I have time I'll go back further for a larger sample size, but that's a pretty significant drop after the home run derby.

That's pretty interesting. My guess is that a t-test of a null hypothesis that the means of the two distributions (the one before the derby and the one after the derby) are equal would be rejected at at least 10%. Still, as it relates to Cespedes, I just can't imagine his numbers actually geting worse this year, since they are already so poor and he demonstrated so much talent last year.

 

[soxfan1468927]

You know, as I looked further back I noticed that last year was more of an anomaly than any other. Every other year the HR derby participants didn't have nearly as much of a drop. Here are the last five years:

First Half: .292/.376/.564/.940, .272 ISO, 18.04 PA/HR
Second Half: .282/.370/.497/.867, .215, 23.44 PA/HR

Clearly there is a drop in power but that can be attributed to plenty of factors and it becomes harder and harder to pinpoint the HR derby as the primary reason.

 

[Nasty_Magician]

Whether or not it was the direct result I'm not sure but I know Wright's numbers took a dive the 2nd half a few years back after the derby. You could tell he was uppercutting on his swing way more than usual and overswinging a lot.

 

[romeo212000]

Well Cespedes wasn't hitting for average anyways so I doubt you'll see a difference in him.

 

[Darkstone42]

You know, as I looked further back I noticed that last year was more of an anomaly than any other. Every other year the HR derby participants didn't have nearly as much of a drop. Here are the last five years:

First Half: .292/.376/.564/.940, .272 ISO, 18.04 PA/HR
Second Half: .282/.370/.497/.867, .215, 23.44 PA/HR

Clearly there is a drop in power but that can be attributed to plenty of factors and it becomes harder and harder to pinpoint the HR derby as the primary reason.

Players get tired, have a cold streak, pitchers adjust to them, etc. Some of the better first-half power hitters do tend to regress naturally as a consequence of many factors. Some hitters may have a problem adjusting their swings, but the art of coaching hitting is far too developed, especially with game tape analysis, that any Derby-induced slump should be more or less corrected rather quickly.