Antonio Brown When To Sell In Dynasty

[Bridgeburner]

So. Got an offer for Antonio Brown in my Dynasty league and it got me thinking... you usually try to sell before the drop-off and he's 30. Five years straight being the WR1 though.

Are you buying or selling AB at this point in dynasty?

Full disclosure, the offer I received was:

Rookie Pick 1.04
Rookie Pick 3.09
JuJu Smith-Schuster
John Ross

I didn't take it. But that's what this guy thought would be a starting point.

 

[TREFF]

I'll sell anyone, anytime, when the price is right..that price ain't right, IMHO.
Its basically JuJu, and a crap shoot rookie RB in a questionable situation (most likely). As Ross is basically nothing, certainly hasn't shown he's better than nothing, and the 3.09 is basically worthless.

Are JuJu and a guy like Freeman/Michel/Penny/Jones worth AB? Not in my mind. Time may prove otherwise, but I'd tell him to replace 3.09 with his 2019 #1, keep Ross, and then maybe its worth considering.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

similar to Treff, any deal that doesn't include 2 1st round draft picks as compensation for AB, I'm ignoring in dynasty.

He's the best combo of route runner and hands in the league - those skills don't diminish the same as guys relying on speed/physicality to create separation.

BigBen is a big piece of this as well though, not sure he has more than a season or two left. If you don't think AB maintains anything similar in terms of production post-Ben, might want to start seriously pursuing the trade.

At worst, I think you have to hold and see if Rudolph can toss the pigskin at this level this preseason, before making any decisions.

 

[averagejoe]

Think Monkey is on the right track... How did AB do when Ben was out of the lineup? Cause Ben's days are numbered. I think the offer is a good start actually.

 

[Bridgeburner]

AB is not the same without Ben. Ben retires and AB is what, 32-33 years old...

I just wonder if now is the time to sell. Value is still high. And if now is the time, what kind of return?

I don't like the 2019 draft class at all so far.

 

[TREFF]

Think Monkey is on the right track... How did AB do when Ben was out of the lineup? Cause Ben's days are numbered. I think the offer is a good start actually.

Agreed there, it is a good start.


And, yes Ben is long in the tooth, so the time to seriously start considering a deal is near, just make sure to win the deal

 

[TREFF]

AB is not the same without Ben. Ben retires and AB is what, 32-33 years old...

I just wonder if now is the time to sell. Value is still high. And if now is the time, what kind of return?

I don't like the 2019 draft class at all so far.

A #1 this year, preferably a top 5-7..NOTHING at 8 or later to even bother with. A #1 next year (even if it is a weak class, if that pick ends up high enough, there's always a few big time names..can't be worse than this year's bunch), and a decent WR vet is what I'd be calling for

 

[SmokingMonkey]

AB is not the same without Ben. Ben retires and AB is what, 32-33 years old...

I just wonder if now is the time to sell. Value is still high. And if now is the time, what kind of return?

I don't like the 2019 draft class at all so far.

absolute minimum in return, for me to be happy losing AB, would have to include at least 3 of the following 4 pieces:

• 1st round pick - current year
• 1st round pick - next year
• Young WR that has at least flashed some big game potential (JuJu would fit the bill for me)
• Younger than AB, guy that I perceive will be an RB1 or WR1 for the next 3-5yrs

Would be hard pressed to move AB for just 2 of those things, cause at worst, I think he'll be in top 25 for WRs the next 2-3 yrs, regardless who QB is.

At least at this stage in Ben's career, Steelers front office is aware of needing a plan B.
And no, not the plan B Ben gives college girls the next day.
I felt like in the past, they had no clue what they were going to do when Ben got hurt, and the offense showed it.

 

[Stomp]

I would have sold him last off season he is 29 and anyone trading for him should be expecting him to start his decline. That offer is in the ball park imo maybe tweak it a bit and send a counter.

 

[broncosmitty]

I'd give two first rounders and a number 3 receiver for him.


I'd also sell him for the right two first rounders and a number 2 running back.


Maybe. It'd prolly take a number 1 RB and some other parts. Like the 4th pick. It has slightly more value than the 7-8th pick imo.

There isn't a player I wouldn't sell for the right return. And sometimes that return is only right for one specific Dynasty team.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

So. Got an offer for Antonio Brown in my Dynasty league and it got me thinking... you usually try to sell before the drop-off and he's 30. Five years straight being the WR1 though.

Are you buying or selling AB at this point in dynasty?

Full disclosure, the offer I received was:

Rookie Pick 1.04
Rookie Pick 3.09
JuJu Smith-Schuster
John Ross

I didn't take it. But that's what this guy thought would be a starting point.

Good starting point, but the third round pick and Ross are fluff. So find a better player then Ross on his roster and ask for a better pick. You could ask for next year first, but I doubt that flies, but then ask for a second this year and a second next year.
That's how I would play it.

 

[ehb5]

I wouldnt trade him unless somebody blows you away. I think he should have several years of WR1 play left. Nothing wrong with just hanging on to the best WR in football until he retires. Sure his "value" will be declining the whole time but he'll also be racking up countless fantasy points and winning games for you.

 

[ehb5]

As for the specific offer I'll echo what others have said. Its basically just 1.04 and Juju for AB. That's not enough for me but if you're rebuilding and can get another 1st or promising young player that'snot bad. If you're competing I'd likely just hold on.

 

[leftypower]

So. Got an offer for Antonio Brown in my Dynasty league and it got me thinking... you usually try to sell before the drop-off and he's 30. Five years straight being the WR1 though.
Are you buying or selling AB at this point in dynasty?

Full disclosure, the offer I received was:

Rookie Pick 1.04
Rookie Pick 3.09
JuJu Smith-Schuster
John Ross

I didn't take it. But that's what this guy thought would be a starting point.

Is it ppr or standard ?? PPR - no way, don't think it's close enough to work a counter. Standard it's a lot closer, although, like other I wouldn't take it either way - but it's seems to be ballpark enough in standard to send a counter for higher pick(s) and there has be be a better option than Ross. ...

 

[averagejoe]

The more I think about it, I may lean more towards ehb's comments.
I'm the kind of guy who drives a car until it just can't be driven anymore.

I did crunch the numbers on Antonio Brown without Ben.

Antonio has played 115 games. 9910 receiving yards and 59 TD.
That factors to: 86.2 yards per game; 6.3 receptions per game; Half a TD per game.

WITHOUT BEN:
8 games. 439 yards and zero (0) TD.
That factors to: 54.8 yards per game; 4.1 receptions per game; and 0.0 TD per game.

 

[ehb5]

The more I think about it, I may lean more towards ehb's comments.
I'm the kind of guy who drives a car until it just can't be driven anymore.

I did crunch the numbers on Antonio Brown without Ben.

Antonio has played 115 games. 9910 receiving yards and 59 TD.
That factors to: 86.2 yards per game; 6.3 receptions per game; Half a TD per game.

WITHOUT BEN:
8 games. 439 yards and zero (0) TD.
That factors to: 54.8 yards per game; 4.1 receptions per game; and 0.0 TD per game.

Counterpoint to the without ben stats though... those games were with landry jones and michael vick when they basically wouldn't let vick throw the ball. It would be nearly impossible to have Bens replacement be that bad.

 

[Racer8825]

So. Got an offer for Antonio Brown in my Dynasty league and it got me thinking... you usually try to sell before the drop-off and he's 30. Five years straight being the WR1 though.

Are you buying or selling AB at this point in dynasty?

Full disclosure, the offer I received was:

Rookie Pick 1.04
Rookie Pick 3.09
JuJu Smith-Schuster
John Ross

I didn't take it. But that's what this guy thought would be a starting point.

At 30 AB is still a very good #1 WR in the NFL. No matter what offer you are given I wouldn't accept it. Who else at his age and position can produce as much as Brown has?

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Counterpoint to the without ben stats though... those games were with landry jones and michael vick when they basically wouldn't let vick throw the ball. It would be nearly impossible to have Bens replacement be that bad.

IDK , you think Rudolph is going to be good? I’d say that a huge question mark. Folks get sentimental about past performances, rather then be realistic about future performance. Think Monkey assessment of two more years is about right, but it certainly could be shorter. Sell now and reap the benefits or stick with him and live with the past memories and suffer the consequences.
If your roster is strong enough the second may not be that bad I guess.

 

[DALLAScornhusker]

I would say this is a prime time to sell AB if you aren't in a position to win this year. You've got to get a first rounder and get a younger (=/<26) WR that has had top 20 success and has the ability and situation to be a perennial top 10 - bare minimum. Personally I'd want another smaller asset that improves a weakness also thrown in.
But if you are a top team in your league, you could likely squeeze 2 more elite years out of AB while chasing the title, then sell him for a lot less.

 

[TREFF]

Counterpoint to the without ben stats though... those games were with landry jones and michael vick when they basically wouldn't let vick throw the ball. It would be nearly impossible to have Bens replacement be that bad.

That's a fair point. A guy just being asked to auto pilot the offense and not screw up until the real guy comes back is a different story than handing the keys over and asking the next guy to go play 16 and get us onto the playoffs