Game Thread: 8.18 Sweep the Mutts

[SF11704]

You can throw some blame at McGee for not protecting a 1-0 game in the 9th. But the Giants did waste 2 opportunities to tack a run or 2 to extend the lead. 3rd inning with runners at 2nd and 3rd with one out and nada. 5th inning with runners at 1st and 2nd and one out and a double play. So yea you can throw some blame at McGee, but some goes to the offense for not capitalizing.

Yeah ... have to put a lot on the failure of the offense to produce. You mentioned two cases and you can add the 11th inning as well. Runner on 3rd and one out. Longo couldn't plate him.
I also think if McGee doesn't hit the first batter we may have escaped the 9th with a win. Just didn't work out for us yesterday.

 

[calsnowskier]

Nope, that blame falls on McGee.

I will give a 50% “agree” on this statement.

if you are a team built around offense, and only score 1 run in 9 innings, it is hard to point fingers at the pitchers.

Similar to late season 2012 (I think that was the year) when the coaching staff called a pitchers meeting to tell them that they are the strength of this team and the expectations on them are unfairly high, but they needed to answer to those expectations. That same idea exists this year with the offense.

 

[tzill]

You can throw some blame at McGee for not protecting a 1-0 game in the 9th. But the Giants did waste 2 opportunities to tack a run or 2 to extend the lead. 3rd inning with runners at 2nd and 3rd with one out and nada. 5th inning with runners at 1st and 2nd and one out and a double play. So yea you can throw some blame at McGee, but some goes to the offense for not capitalizing.

You can focus on the "1-0" thing if you want, that's your prerogative. I'd rather look at the fact that he was given a lead, in the ninth, and he blew it. Again. We now have 15 CPBS this year. That's 2.5 years worth, and the season is still 1/4 to go. That's terrible.

OTOH, the offense by and large has been just fine. Elite, even.

 

[calsnowskier]

You can focus on the "1-0" thing if you want, that's your prerogative. I'd rather look at the fact that he was given a lead, in the ninth, and he blew it. Again. We now have 15 CPBS this year. That's 2.5 years worth, and the season is still 1/4 to go. That's terrible.

OTOH, the offense by and large has been just fine. Elite, even.

And the bully has been beyond outstanding, after the first 3 or 4 weeks of the season. You fail to acknowledge the fact that the bully has improved…. DRASTICALLY!

 

[jeep99tj]

You can focus on the "1-0" thing if you want, that's your prerogative. I'd rather look at the fact that he was given a lead, in the ninth, and he blew it. Again. We now have 15 CPBS this year. That's 2.5 years worth, and the season is still 1/4 to go. That's terrible.

OTOH, the offense by and large has been just fine. Elite, even.

It’s a team game and both sides have to do their part. When the offense squanders opportunities it puts more on the pitching to be perfect. Same as when the pitching shits the bed, it puts more on the offense.

 

[msgkings322]

You can throw some blame at McGee for not protecting a 1-0 game in the 9th. But the Giants did waste 2 opportunities to tack a run or 2 to extend the lead. 3rd inning with runners at 2nd and 3rd with one out and nada. 5th inning with runners at 1st and 2nd and one out and a double play. So yea you can throw some blame at McGee, but some goes to the offense for not capitalizing.

95% offense 5% McGee

 

[SF11704]

95% offense 5% McGee

I agree. The problem is that you can see and quantify what McGee did. He gave up a run.
It appears in the box score. Very concrete thing to point to.

But ... as Jeep99tj noted ... what about the runners on base in the 3rd inning (1 out) that didn't score. Even more damaging. The runner on 3rd with one out in the 11th. That was a walk off winning run that we couldn't score.

We never point at the things that didn't happen or the people that didn't deliver in that situation. Hard to quantify something that didn’t happen

The expectation and success or failure for a pitcher is a different bar than that of an everyday player. A starter is measured against a QS metric. A closer is measured against the ability to hold the lead... each and every time they make an appearance. You either succeed or fail.
An everyday position player is measured against his own history. If he's a 300 hitter all you can really expect is 3 hits in every 10 at bats. Nobody seemed to blame Longo for not driving in the winning run in the 11th (1 out runner on 3rd) or Wade (2 out runner on 3rd). Fans just don't seem to look at the game in that way. For many it's easier to see McGee's issues rather than the numerous failures to score throughout the game. Hard to blame people for things that didn't happen. Easy to blame McGee for the run that scored. Sort of a shame really ... some can blame McGee for letting the game get tied but don't even acknowledge that Chatwood was also hit quite hard. Can't really say that Chatwood isn't accountable simply because we never should have gotten to him other than McGee giving up a run. The team lost yesterday not McGee.

 

[tzill]

And the bully has been beyond outstanding, after the first 3 or 4 weeks of the season. You fail to acknowledge the fact that the bully has improved…. DRASTICALLY!

No, I do not. It was g-d awful early on. But those CPBS aren't erased because they are better. 90% of the time, when you're give a lead entering the ninth, you HAVE to win that game.

Is the bullpen better than in April? No doubt.

Is it good enough for the playoffs? I am not so sure.

 

[tzill]

It’s a team game and both sides have to do their part. When the offense squanders opportunities it puts more on the pitching to be perfect. Same as when the pitching shits the bed, it puts more on the offense.

I don't disagree. I guess where we differ is that I don't care if McGee is given a 7-6 lead or a 1-0 lead. Either way, he has to save that game.

 

[jeep99tj]

I don't disagree. I guess where we differ is that I don't care if McGee is given a 7-6 lead or a 1-0 lead. Either way, he has to save that game.

Yes, that is what he is paid for. On the same token the offense is paid to score runs and drive them in. And when they are given an opportunity to drive that run in, they have to drive it in.

 

[tzill]

Yes, that is what he is paid for. On the same token the offense is paid to score runs and drive them in. And when they are given an opportunity to drive that run in, they have to drive it in.

but the two things are not equal. Closers need to be at 90% on saves. Hitters that are 30% in RBI situations are elite. Not the same.

 

[tzill]

Farhan says good news on Disco, more of a bruise situation and he should be ready for his next start on Tuesday.

 

[SF11704]

but the two things are not equal. Closers need to be at 90% on saves. Hitters that are 30% in RBI situations are elite. Not the same.

If you look at the statistics you see that McGee has an 87% save rate. He's in the middle of the upper tier of closers in this category. He only has 4 BS. As a team the Giants don't have the most BS. There are at least 5 teams with a worse number. Then again many teams don't have anywhere as many save opportunities either. You have to be somewhat good to actually have save opportunities.

The statistic on hitters in an RBI situation isn't 30% for elite hitters. The 30% is for an elite hitter getting a hit. It's not tied to an RBI. Since the late 1950s .... to present ... it's been about 50% (47 to 54) that a hitter will drive in a runner from 3rd with less than 2 outs. We had that opportunity at least twice in that game (3rd and 11th inning). We failed on both occasions. According to statistics ... we should have scored at least one of those runners and won the game. If we scored in the 3rd then maybe we win 2-1 and McGee actually gets a save. If we score in the 11th then McGee does get a BS but we win the game. In either case we win the game. So ... looking at pure statistics . The offense lost the game by not producing on at least 50% of those 2 opportunities.

Statiistics can be bent in almost any way we want them. It's never than clear cut.

 

[msgkings322]

but the two things are not equal. Closers need to be at 90% on saves. Hitters that are 30% in RBI situations are elite. Not the same.

But there's lots of hitters and one closer. So the closer might give up a run once in a while, but also once in a while all the hitters will fail to drive in runs.

 

[tzill]

If you look at the statistics you see that McGee has an 87% save rate. He's in the middle of the upper tier of closers in this category. He only has 4 BS. As a team the Giants don't have the most BS. There are at least 5 teams with a worse number. Then again many teams don't have anywhere as many save opportunities either. You have to be somewhat good to actually have save opportunities.

The statistic on hitters in an RBI situation isn't 30% for elite hitters. The 30% is for an elite hitter getting a hit. It's not tied to an RBI. Since the late 1950s .... to present ... it's been about 50% (47 to 54) that a hitter will drive in a runner from 3rd with less than 2 outs. We had that opportunity at least twice in that game (3rd and 11th inning). We failed on both occasions. According to statistics ... we should have scored at least one of those runners and won the game. If we scored in the 3rd then maybe we win 2-1 and McGee actually gets a save. If we score in the 11th then McGee does get a BS but we win the game. In either case we win the game. So ... looking at pure statistics . The offense lost the game by not producing on at least 50% of those 2 opportunities.

Statiistics can be bent in almost any way we want them. It's never than clear cut.

All that is fair, and I wasn't speaking about the 3rd base/less than 2 out scenario. I think a couple seasons ago we discussed it and a number of us were disabused of the notion that the success rate should be 75% or something. It is around 50%. I guess you kind of prove my point: by your numbers McGee should only be expected to fail 13% of the time. 3b/LT2outs should be expected to fail twice about 25% of the time. The greater shock was McGee.

but, as you say: lies, damn lies, and stats.

 

[pachyderm]

#moneyball