2023 - How much was the problem injuries?

[LHG]

So, did injuries have a large impact on how the 2023 season went? I think that dismissing injuries altogether is silly but so is just assuming that an IL stint makes an impact. All teams deal with injuries so there is a certain level of expectation that some guys will miss some time due to injury. The question is, were the IL stints so large and the injuries so significant that they impact the win-loss columns enough to be considered a major explanation for a lost season.
Giants' players have spent (and will spend, projecting those on the IL now to the end of the season except for Winn) a total of 1,589 combined days on the IL this season. No idea how that ranks compared to the other 29 times but let's take a brief look below at each of the major position categories (see next post if you want individual breakdowns):

Starting Pitchers (not including openers) - 236 days total. This is a mixed bag. The Giants lost 2 starts when Cobb was doing well earlier in the season but probably dodged a couple of poor starts from him at the end of the season. Same with Wood's two IL stints. DeSclafani's injury may have been the reason for his poor ending to 2023 but we don't know. Stripling's injuries probably helped the team. Decent impact (Loss of 0.9 WAR)

Relief Pitchers (including openers) - 522 days total. This seems much worse than it really is. Szapucki will be on the IL 186 days when the season ends. Waites 144 days. Jackson spent 61 days finishing his TJ recovery. Probably the only significant time missed that hurt the Giants is Brebbia's 80 day stint. To say he has been rusty since his return is an understatement. Alexander's first IL stint and Jackson's second IL stint probably hurt the club but were both minimal stays. Minimal impact (Loss of 0.4 WAR)

Catchers - 214 days total. Subtract Roberto Perez' 177 days and this isn't bad at all. Most of it is Bart's 2 stays. No impact. (No loss of WAR).

Infielders - 147 days total. Crawford's 4 IL stints come out to 45 days. Mark Mathias will spend 49 days on the IL. Even when Estrada missed time, he was not hitting well. Only Flores went down while contributing positively and that was only a minimal 10 day visit. Minimal impact. (Loss of 0.1 WAR).

Outfielders - 455 days total. Subtract Gonzalez, Pollock, Johnson and Ramos (241 days) and there is still some significance. Here is where injuries have definitely hurt the club. Yastrzemski missed a total of 55 days in 3 stints. His bat was missed every time and twice after getting activated, it took him time to get back into a groove offensively. Slater's 2 stints were also when he was hitting well. Even Conforto's 22 days came at an inopportune time. Of course, Haniger being out 69 days was probably beneficial. Decent impact (Loss of 1 WAR).

Designated Hitter - 48 days total. This includes Ruf's last 15 days with the Giants. Pederson was hitting well both times he went down (combined 33 days) so there is probably a minimal impact. (Loss of 0.2 WAR).

By my rough calculations, the injuries have cost the team approximately 2.6 WAR. Let's say that the injuries cost production while guys were healthy. That is a difference of 5 wins. Further, let us assume that the Giants go 4-2 the rest of the way and finish the season at 81-81. Even further, let's say that there were no injuries and the team would have finished 86-76 with everyone healthy. That would require one of the D-Backs or Cubs to finish this year at 85-77 (going 3-3 the rest of the way) for the Giants to have eked into the playoffs as the 3rd Wild Card team. I really don't think injuries can explain away this season nor be used as a significant factor what went wrong.

 

[LHG]

Starting Pitchers
Alex Cobb - 15 day IL (left oblique strain) - 6/18-6/30 (12 days) - Cobb was off to a good start in 2023 when he went down in mid June, missing 2 starts in the process. Negative impact.
Alex Cobb - 15 day IL (left hip impingement) - 9/20-present (12 days) - He was wearing down since his almost no-hitter on Aug 29th (3 starts - 8.10 ERA, 1.60 WHIP). The time off is probably best for him and the team. No impact.
Anthony DeSclafani - 15 day IL (right shoulder fatigue) - 7/3-7/18 (15 days) - DeSclafani had a great month of April but every month subsequent got worse and worse, to the point that his June (6.65 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 5 starts) looked pretty poor. However, what is unknown is how long was he dealing with injuries. That may have been a contributor to his decline. Slight negative impact.
Anthony DeSclafani - 15 day IL (right elbow flexor strain) - 7/30 (60 day IL 8/14)-present (64 days) - While valuable at first, the problem with DeSclafani, throughout his career, has been injuries. He got knocked around in his last three appearances, all between the two IL stints, 10.61 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in 9.1 IP. Slight negative impact.
Ross Stripling - 15 day IL (low back strain) - 5/19-6/25 (37 days) - Stripling posted a 7.24 ERA and 1.577 WHIP in 9 games (5 starts) while allowing 10 home runs. His IL stint probably helped the team. No impact.
Ross Stripling - 15 day IL (mid-back strain) - 8/17-9/15 (30 days) - He got in another 10 games (6 starts) between IL stints, with better results - 3.91 ERA and 1.109 WHIP but 10 home runs - then early in the season. However, he has been awful in his two appearances since activation (7 runs in 7.1 IP but no home runs!). Slight negative impact.
Keaton Winn - 7 day IL (COVID) - 9/20-present (7 days?) - Winn was just recalled in early September and pitched decently in 3 appearances (6 runs in 15 IP). He is eligible to come off the IL in two days, possibly losing just one start in the time off. Still, that one start could have helped a taxed bullpen. Slight negative impact.
Alex Wood - 15 day IL (left hamstring strain) - 4/19-5/12 (23 days) - Wood was off to a good start (2 earned runs in 10 IP across 3 starts) when he went down. However, he was horrid when activated (6.30 ERA in 4 starts, 1 relief appearance in May). Slight negative impact.
Alex Wood - 15 day IL (low back strain) - 5/12-6/17 (36 days) - As mentioned above, Wood looked bad in May. He was okay in June (4.05 ERA in 13.1 IP) but got torched in July (5.40 ERA in 20 IP). No impact.

 

[LHG]

Relief Pitchers
Scott Alexander - 15 day IL (left hamstring strain) - 6/19-7/4 (15 days) -Alexander had thrown 2.2 innings of no runs in 4 games of relief (with a 10 day rest between 6/8 and 6/18). He would come back in July with 9 more games, throwing 8.2 IP allowing 4 runs (2 earned). Slight negative impact.
Scott Alexander - 15 day IL (left hamstring strain) - 9/23-present (9 days) - His 2nd turn on the IL came at a very different time of production. He got torched in September for 6 runs (4 earned) in 7 IP over 7 games in September. No impact.
John Brebbia - 15 day IL (right lat strain) - 6/17 (60 day IL 7/31)-9/5 (80 days) - Brebbia started 2023 poorly but was dominating for the months of May and June (2 runs in 16.1 IP over 15 games) went he got injured. However, he has gotten hammered since returning (4 earned runs in 7 IP over 8 games). I would say his IL stint, still, was a negative impact.
Luke Jackson - 15 day IL (UCL reconstruction) - 3/30 (60 day IL 4/1)-5/30 (61 days) - Expected to start the season on the IL due to TJ recovery. No impact.
Luke Jackson - 15 day IL (low back strain) - 6/25-7/22 (27 days) - Jackson was off to good start (2 runs in 10.2 IP) since his first activation. He continued to pitch well in late July/August after his 2nd activation (4 earned runs in 15 IP). His loss taxed the bullpen a bit. Negative impact.
Thomas Szapucki - 60 day IL (left arm neuropathy) - 3/30-present (186 days) - He was a bubble candidate for a bullpen spot. No impact.
Cole Waites - 60 day IL (right elbow sprain) - 5/11-present (144 days) - Waites was in AAA and already injured. No impact.

 

[LHG]

Catchers
Patrick Bailey - 7 day IL (concussion) - 9/6-9/13 (7 days) - Bailey was 0 for his last 11 and had only 3 extra base hits in his last 18 games when he went down. It was probably for his best to get some rest but the reason for it sucked. No impact.
Joey Bart - 10 day IL (mid-back strain) - 4/2-4/10 (8 days) - He played all of 1 game before being injured, with no at-bats. No impact.
Joey Bart - 10 day IL (left groin strain) - 5/19-6/10 (22 days) - Bart got optioned the same day he was activated. No impact.
Roberto Perez - 60 day IL (right rotator cuff strain) - 4/8-present (177 days) - Never expected to do much more than act as a placeholder for Bart/Bailey. No impact.

 

[LHG]

Infielders
Brandon Crawford - 10 day IL (right calf strain) - 5/1-5/14 (13 days) - An April OPS of .621 didn't look good but was a sign of the season to come. No impact.
Brandon Crawford - 10 day IL (left knee inflammation) - 7/19-7/29 (10 days) - After a decent May (.738 OPS), his bat flatlined in June (.661 OPS) and died in July (.468 OPS). No impact.
Brandon Crawford - 10 day IL (left forearm strain) - 8/20-9/1 (12 days) - He couldn't bring his bat to life in August (.405 OPS). No impact.
Brandon Crawford - 10 day IL (right hamstring strain) - 9/21-present (10 days) - He did some of his best hitting of the season (outside of May) in September (.672 OPS). Still not good production though. And his defense has not been very good this year either. No impact.
Thairo Estrada - 10 day IL (left wrist sprain) - 5/27-6/6 (10 days) - Has Estrada been a valuable part of the club? Yes. However, most of the offensive contributions he has made was in April. His bat had cooled significantly in May when he was first injured (.680 OPS in May). He was still missed. Slight negative impact.
Thairo Estrada - 10 day IL (left hand fracture) - 7/3-8/5 (33 days) - His hitting got even worse after his first activation. His June OPS was .672 and he had gone 2 for 8 with no walks and 2 Ks in July before the injury. The combined two IL stints make for a slight negative impact.
Wilmer Flores - 10 day IL (left foot contusion) - 6/17-6/27 (10 days) - Flores was just starting a hot streak when he went down. Fortunately, it was a minimal stay. However, his bat was missed. Slight negative impact.
Mark Mathias - 10 day IL (right shoulder strain) - 8/14 (60 day IL 8/22)-present (49 days) - He was set to get optioned when the Giants chose the IL stint instead. No impact.

 

[LHG]

Outfielders
Michael Conforto - 10 day IL (left hamstring strain) - 8/24-9/15 (22 days) - Conforto was hitting well in August (.833 OPS in 60 ABs) when he went down. His bat didn't come back with him, though, with only 2 hits in 21 ABs since activation. Assuming he would have continued to hit decently for at least a couple more weeks, I would rate it a slight negative impact.
Luis Gonzalez - 60 day IL (lower back surgery) - 3/30-8/7 (130 days) - Gonzalez got optioned the same day he was activated. No impact.
Mitch Haniger - 10 day IL (left oblique strain) - 3/30-4/24 (25 days) - On the surface, this hurt the team. They needed his expected bat in April when the team struggled and he started strong when first activated (5 for 16, 1 double, 2 home runs in 16 April ABs). Then his bat flatlined in May (.590 OPS). I'm going to rate this as a slight negative impact.
Mitch Haniger - 10 day IL (right forearm fracture) - 6/14 (60 day IL 6/22)-8/29 (69 days) - Haniger's bat continued to suffer in June (.603 OPS) when he got injured and he has struggled upon his return (.574 September OPS). No impact.
Bryce Johnson - 7 day IL (concussion) - 4/14-5/7 (23 days) - Johnson got optioned the same day he was activated. No impact.
AJ Pollock - 10 day IL (?) - unknown-8/1 (1 day) - was on IL when acquired. No impact.
AJ Pollock - 10 day IL (left oblique strain) - 8/9-9/5 (27 days) - Pollock got released the same day he was activated. No impact.
Heliot Ramos - 60 day IL (right oblique strain) - 5/19-7/18 (60 days) - Ramos got optioned the same day he was activated. No impact.
Austin Slater - 10 day IL (left hamstring strain) - 3/30-4/24 (25 days) - This one hurt the team. It, along with Haniger, tested the outfield depth and Slater returned with a hot bat (1.181 OPS in April). Negative impact.
Austin Slater - 10 day IL (left hamstring strain) - 5/11-5/29 (18 days) - His May OPS (.907) suggests that this IL stint also hurt the Giants. Negative impact.
Mike Yastrzemski - 10 day IL (left hamstring strain) - 5/1-5/15 (14 days) - Another painful loss. He went down just a week after Slater and Haniger was activated and he had a .872 OPS in April. Negative impact.
Mike Yastrzemski - 10 day IL (left hamstring strain) - 6/23-7/3 (11 days) - His return was not that exciting in May (.650 OPS) but he began to hit better in June (.851 OPS). Negative impact.
Mike Yastrzemski - 10 day IL (left hamstring strain) - 7/31-8/30 (30 days) - This set of injuries probably had the worst impact on the Giants among all injuries. He struggled again after his 2nd activation (.570 OPS in July) and went down before getting into a groove. He found that groove, however, after his 3rd activation (.973 OPS since Aug 30th). Negative impact.

 

[LHG]

Designated Hitters
Joc Pederson - 10 day IL (right wrist inflammation) - 4/12-4/23 (11 days) - Pederson was on a hot streak that continued when he was activated (.841 OPS in April). Negative impact.
Joc Pederson - 10 day IL (right hand contusion) - 5/15-6/6 (22 days) - He continued a good pace in May (.912 OPS) and after his 2nd stint in June (.873 OPS). Negative impact.
Darin Ruf - 10 day IL (right wrist inflammation) - 4/24-5/9 (15 days) - Ruf got dfa'd the same day he was activated. No impact.

 

[calsnowskier]

 

[Stokes1931]

LHG writes the intro chapter to War and Peace with detailed analysis.

The Board's response: Giants suck!

 

[sf1giantfan]

My head just exploded with too much info

 

[calsnowskier]

My head just exploded with too much info

Welcome to the board.

This is a particularly impressive project, but it isn’t THAT much outside the norm for what we tend to put together.

 

[LHG]

My head just exploded with too much info

 

[LHG]

This took longer than I thought. I started with "I'll just look up who got injured" and that lead to looking up when they got injured which went to how long they were injured and so on. But once I got started I had to finish. Probably not the best use of my time but it is finished (although I'm sure a deeper analysis could be done).

 

[Stokes1931]

This took longer than I thought. I started with "I'll just look up who got injured" and that lead to looking up when they got injured which went to how long they were injured and so on. But once I got started I had to finish. Probably not the best use of my time but it is finished (although I'm sure a deeper analysis could be done).

This is what happens to me as I prepare for speaking. I start with one topic, and eventually wind up reading with utter fascination about the growth of algae in the Antarctic. I congratulate you, LHG, for staying on track!

 

[LHG]

This is what happens to me as I prepare for speaking. I start with one topic, and eventually wind up reading with utter fascination about the growth of algae in the Antarctic. I congratulate you, LHG, for staying on track!

I've done the same. For example, I found out that the 1st grand slam in MLB history was hit by a Troy Trojan, forerunners of the New York Giants!
But I digress.

 

[LHG]

LHG writes the intro chapter to War and Peace with detailed analysis.

The Board's response: Giants suck!

And I've written close to those exact words in game day threads.

 

[Stokes1931]

I've done the same. For example, I found out that the 1st grand slam in MLB history was hit by a Troy Trojan, forerunners of the New York Giants!
But I digress.

I love history. A few years ago I was in Cincinnati for the first time. The hotel was across the river in Covington, KY (as most Cincy hotels, and the airport, hence CVG). I checked in and went for a walk (trying to keep up 10 miles a day). I walked along the Ohio River, a lovely walk, and as I rounded a bend, I saw a bridge. It looked an awful lot like the Brooklyn Bridge. So I walked across it to downtown Cincy. I later looked it up, and it is the Roebling Bridge. I knew that name, as I had recently read David McCullough's book on the Brooklyn Bridge. And wouldn't you know it, both bridges were designed and built by the same guy! The Cincy bridge was built in 1866, and the Brooklyn Bridge was built later in 1883. At the time, the Cincy bridge was the longest suspension bridge in the world (1057 ft), but the Brooklyn Bridge wound up beating it by almost 500 feet (1595'). Yeah, that stuff.

BTW, when in NYC this summer, I took the subway from Manhattan to Brooklyn, and then walked across the Brooklyn Bridge back to Manhattan. Then for good measure I took the subway uptown and walked the High Line.

 

[LHG]

I love history. A few years ago I was in Cincinnati for the first time. The hotel was across the river in Covington, KY (as most Cincy hotels, and the airport, hence CVG). I checked in and went for a walk (trying to keep up 10 miles a day). I walked along the Ohio River, a lovely walk, and as I rounded a bend, I saw a bridge. It looked an awful lot like the Brooklyn Bridge. So I walked across it to downtown Cincy. I later looked it up, and it is the Roebling Bridge. I knew that name, as I had recently read David McCullough's book on the Brooklyn Bridge. And wouldn't you know it, both bridges were designed and built by the same guy! The Cincy bridge was built in 1866, and the Brooklyn Bridge was built later in 1883. At the time, the Cincy bridge was the longest suspension bridge in the world (1057 ft), but the Brooklyn Bridge wound up beating it by almost 500 feet (1595'). Yeah, that stuff.

BTW, when in NYC this summer, I took the subway from Manhattan to Brooklyn, and then walked across the Brooklyn Bridge back to Manhattan. Then for good measure I took the subway uptown and walked the High Line.

I'll pull out trivia like that with my wife and she waffles between amazement that I can remember things like that and puzzlement that I waste my time on what doesn't seem important.

 

[Sandisfan]

@sf1giantfan I go to several Forums that cover different sports and I have found better analysis on them than Media outlets. Like for instance on another Board, "Hockey's future" I have learned more from that board than even hockey based Media. As an example someone on the Sharks subforum (well moderated not overly officious but no flaming) did research about a certain aspect of the draft. He looked back at all the drafts and found that if a defenseman didn't have any real offense that very much below average expectations for draft position that they were almost all Busts. That is if a Dman was drafted high and was a defense only ( or practically so) it was a wasted pick. there was another study put together by board members on on the Sharks board and from other teams where neutral members would watch games and score penalties to how likely it should be called for instance call a hooking as 50% or 40% or 60% and so on. It was interesting and tended to show bias from some on ice officials. I am very into cycling, Tour De France type though not only 3 week tours or one week but also One Day races that are raced differently than stage races. Most forum members are in Europe and have so much knowledge and history to tell. This board has Amazed me often about the knowledge and analysis here. Still as always there will be bickering of course. A good Sports Forum will always out perform the Media. Also Breaking news is shared faster that any Media outlet. The cycling one is Cycling News Forum. the SF Niners board here is great even with low participation. You are Lucky to be here and read what is offered here. Have Fun. Don't be annoying is my advice to especially at lower volume boards.