2017 Strength of Schedule

[averagejoe]

• Playing the most difficult schedule almost never works out well. Of the teams playing the 10 most difficult schedules in 2016 (calculated after the season), none made the playoffs.
• Of the 10 easiest schedules in 2016, seven teams made the playoffs, (Patriots, Seahawks, Dolphins, Cowboys, Lions, Falcons, Giants), another finished with a winning record (the 9-7 Titans) and the others (Bills, Cardinals) won seven games.
• In three of the past four seasons, the team with the easiest schedule has gone on to make at least the conference title game.

1. Denver Broncos: 147-107-2, .578 < Hardest
2. Kansas City Chiefs: 147-108-1, .576
3. Los Angeles Chargers: 145-110-1, .568
4. Oakland Raiders: 144-111-1 .564
5. Buffalo Bills: 143-112-1, .561
6. Miami Dolphins: 140-116-0, .547
7. Washington Redskins: 138-116-2, .543
T-8. New York Giants: 135-117-4, .535
T-8. New York Jets: 137-119-0, .535
T-10. Dallas Cowboys: 134-118-4, .531
T-10. Philadelphia Eagles: 134-118-4, .531
12. New England Patriots: 135-121-0, .527
13. Atlanta Falcons: 133-122-1, .521
14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 132-123-1, .518
15. New Orleans Saints: 130-125-1, .514
16. Carolina Panthers: 129-127, .504
17. Los Angeles Rams: 121-130-5, .482
18. Green Bay Packers: 122-132-2, .480
19. Chicago Bears: 122-133-1, .479
20. San Francisco 49ers: 119-132-5, .475
T-21. Detroit Lions: 119-135-2, .469
T-21. Cleveland Browns: 119-135-2, .469
23. Arizona Cardinals: 118-135-3, .467
24. Baltimore Ravens: 117-137-2, .461
T-25. Seattle Seahawks: 115-138-3, .455
T-25. Houston Texans: 115-138-3, .455
T-27. Minnesota Vikings: 115-139-2, .453
T-27. Pittsburgh Steelers: 115-139-2, .453
29. Cincinnati Bengals: 115-141-0, .449
T-30. Jacksonville Jaguars: 111-142-3, .439
T-30. Tennessee Titans: 111-142-3, .439
32. Indianapolis Colts: 107-146-3, .424 < Easiest

 

[TREFF]

The local Broncos guys seen to think 9-7 is in the bag, 12-4 "if a few things go their way"

I see 4-12, 6-10, if a few things go their way

I generally don't put to much stock into SOS, to much changes from year to year to base much on something completely derived from last year's record. For instance, the AFC West dominates the top of the "hardest" schedule, based at least in part to them all playing the 9-7 Broncos twice, but they've got an entirely new coaching staff, still no line, still no QB, and that 9-7 record was built with only 2 victories on teams better than .500 (The Connor Cook-led Raiders don't count), so why should 2 games against a team that is likely a 5-6 win team this year (at best) be judged like they were a near miss playoff team? I'm sure there are similar situations both positive and negative all up and down this baby

 

[Yellow Fuzzies]

The local Broncos guys seen to think 9-7 is in the bag, 12-4 "if a few things go their way"

I see 4-12, 6-10, if a few things go their way

I generally don't put to much stock into SOS, to much changes from year to year to base much on something completely derived from last year's record. For instance, the AFC West dominates the top of the "hardest" schedule, based at least in part to them all playing the 9-7 Broncos twice, but they've got an entirely new coaching staff, still no line, still no QB, and that 9-7 record was built with only 2 victories on teams better than .500 (The Connor Cook-led Raiders don't count), so why should 2 games against a team that is likely a 5-6 win team this year (at best) be judged like they were a near miss playoff team? I'm sure there are similar situations both positive and negative all up and down this baby

I don't think Denver will be great but with the defense still intact 4-12 is just way too pessimistic. I am hopeful that Semien/Lynch will be better and the Broncos will land a starting tackle in the draft.

 

[TREFF]

I don't think Denver will be great but with the defense still intact 4-12 is just way too pessimistic. I am hopeful that Semien/Lynch will be better and the Broncos will land a starting tackle in the draft.

Was just going with the matchup on the schedule..i see an automatic 6 losses.. barring any unforeseen game changing injuries to their opponents..Dallas, NE, and the 4 to KC and Oak and far too many of their "maybe" games are away.. at Wash, at Philly, at Buff, at Miami, at Indy, they're losing at least half of those, if not all, and there are only 3 games that can reasonably be looked at as "given wins".. both Chargers games, and the Jets.. so anywhere from 4-12 to 6-10, MAYBE 7-9.. is perfectly reasonable to predict

 

[Yellow Fuzzies]

Was just going with the matchup on the schedule..i see an automatic 6 losses.. barring any unforeseen game changing injuries to their opponents..Dallas, NE, and the 4 to KC and Oak and far too many of their "maybe" games are away.. at Wash, at Philly, at Buff, at Miami, at Indy, they're losing at least half of those, if not all, and there are only 3 games that can reasonably be looked at as "given wins".. both Chargers games, and the Jets.. so anywhere from 4-12 to 6-10, MAYBE 7-9.. is perfectly reasonable to predict

Could happen but that defense is capable of stealing some games particularly in Denver.

 

[FaCe-LeE-uS]

Shit... Under Tomlin the Steelers are god-awful against weak (sub-500) opponents.

 

[averagejoe]

Not sure if you guys looked at the entire NFL schedule but all of the bye weeks are between weeks 5-11 this year. Last season they started in week 4 and ran thru week 13 (skipping week 12).

Week 5 (4 teams) ATL, DEN, NO, WSH
Week 6 (4 teams) BUF, CIN, DAL, SEA
Week 7 (2 teams) DET, HOU
Week 8 (6 teams) ARI, GB, JAX, LAR, NYG, TEN
Week 9 (6 teams) CHI, CLE, LAC, MIN, NE, PIT
Week 10 (4 teams) BAL, KC, OAK, PHI
Week 11 (6 teams) CAR, IND, MIA, NYJ, SF, TB

 

[TREFF]

Not sure if you guys looked at the entire NFL schedule but all of the bye weeks are between weeks 5-11 this year. Last season they started in week 4 and ran thru week 13 (skipping week 12).

Week 5 (4 teams) ATL, DEN, NO, WSH
Week 6 (4 teams) BUF, CIN, DAL, SEA
Week 7 (2 teams) DET, HOU
Week 8 (6 teams) ARI, GB, JAX, LAR, NYG, TEN
Week 9 (6 teams) CHI, CLE, LAC, MIN, NE, PIT
Week 10 (4 teams) BAL, KC, OAK, PHI
Week 11 (6 teams) CAR, IND, MIA, NYJ, SF, TB

No I hadn't, some of the those weeks are going to be brutal scrambling to fill out lineups

 

[FaCe-LeE-uS]

Not sure if you guys looked at the entire NFL schedule but all of the bye weeks are between weeks 5-11 this year. Last season they started in week 4 and ran thru week 13 (skipping week 12).

Week 5 (4 teams) ATL, DEN, NO, WSH
Week 6 (4 teams) BUF, CIN, DAL, SEA
Week 7 (2 teams) DET, HOU
Week 8 (6 teams) ARI, GB, JAX, LAR, NYG, TEN
Week 9 (6 teams) CHI, CLE, LAC, MIN, NE, PIT
Week 10 (4 teams) BAL, KC, OAK, PHI
Week 11 (6 teams) CAR, IND, MIA, NYJ, SF, TB

No I hadn't, some of the those weeks are going to be brutal scrambling to fill out lineups

Damn... what Treff said! Good info though Joe! Probably would have overlooked that small tidbit.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Didn't notice either. Way to spot that Joe. The heavy bye weeks are going to be killers.

 

[averagejoe]

Grid Schedule

 

[leftypower]

Thanks Joe - awesome as always !!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Barilko]

Thanks Joe - awesome as always !!!!!!!!!!!

This^^^^^^^

 

[Brees#1]

Was just going with the matchup on the schedule..i see an automatic 6 losses.. barring any unforeseen game changing injuries to their opponents..Dallas, NE, and the 4 to KC and Oak and far too many of their "maybe" games are away.. at Wash, at Philly, at Buff, at Miami, at Indy, they're losing at least half of those, if not all, and there are only 3 games that can reasonably be looked at as "given wins".. both Chargers games, and the Jets.. so anywhere from 4-12 to 6-10, MAYBE 7-9.. is perfectly reasonable to predict

I would not give Dallas the win against Denver yet. After all, look what happened in 2015.

And with SD's draft have to think Denver loses one to them. Denver's defense is gonna fall off to the point they can't hang with Oakland and KC at home. I'm not saying Denver makes playoffs.

 

[TREFF]

I would not give Dallas the win against Denver yet. After all, look what happened in 2015.

And with SD's draft have to think Denver loses one to them. Denver's defense is gonna fall off to the point they can't hang with Oakland and KC at home. I'm not saying Denver makes playoffs.

Look what happened in 2015?? What in the heck does anything that happened 3 years ago have tho do with anything? Leave it to Brees to bring completely irrelevent thoughts in order to stent to prove a point

 

[Brees#1]

Look what happened in 2015?? What in the heck does anything that happened 3 years ago have tho do with anything? Leave it to Brees to bring completely irrelevent thoughts in order to stent to prove a point

NFC East.

 

[Barilko]

M

The local Broncos guys seen to think 9-7 is in the bag, 12-4 "if a few things go their way"

I see 4-12, 6-10, if a few things go their way

I generally don't put to much stock into SOS, to much changes from year to year to base much on something completely derived from last year's record. For instance, the AFC West dominates the top of the "hardest" schedule, based at least in part to them all playing the 9-7 Broncos twice, but they've got an entirely new coaching staff, still no line, still no QB, and that 9-7 record was built with only 2 victories on teams better than .500 (The Connor Cook-led Raiders don't count), so why should 2 games against a team that is likely a 5-6 win team this year (at best) be judged like they were a near miss playoff team? I'm sure there are similar situations both positive and negative all up and down this baby

Same here I see 5-11

 

[averagejoe]

Ok. I'm sure we're all familiar with the annual SOS that comes out each season?

Most SOS will use the win-loss record as the basis. But is this a good reflection of their opponent?
What if you used offensive categories instead which may be a better reflection of an offense?

I made a new SOS schedule, using these offensive categories:

• Yards (fewest to most)
• Points (fewest to most)
• Turnovers (interceptions + fumbles lost; most to fewest)
• Sacks (allowed, most to fewest)

Then I used the NFL schedule grid and replaced each opponent with their category ranking for all 17 weeks of the 2017 season.

Here's the true strength of schedule.

​

For reference, the Colts play the schedule with the weakest offenses. The Broncos play the toughest schedule against tougher offenses.