2015 Top Prospects

[calsnowskier]

DrB just posted his annual list...

When the Giants Come to Town...: DrB's 2015 Giants Top 50 Prospects

I have been mulling my top 10 over the last month or so, and will try to put something together in the coming days...

 

[SFGRTB]

Susac is my number 1, and I think he's a clear number 1. Very talented hitter, sound defensively, has the best teachers anyone could ask for and has already shown a little in the MLB. It will be very interesting to see how he is integrated into the lineup, and how his future unravels in SF.

1. Susac (MLB/AAA)
2. Beede (A+)
3. Crick (AA/AAA)
4. Arroyo (A-)
5. Mella (A+)
6. Blackburn (AAA)
7. Duffy (MLB/AAA)
8. Carbonell (AAA/MLB/AA)
9. Williamson (AA/A+)
10. Luis Ysla (A+)

Beede is the new guy, head of a great draft class. He, like Crick, has some of the best raw stuff in the system but will struggle with command for now. Ideally, the Giants can fix this, they have some of the best in the business to do so. He's probably going straight to San Jose, skipping Augusta.

Crick needs to start putting it together, he was 1 on my list last year but down to 3 this year. Injuries haven't helped, but he still walks way too many guys. He has all the talent to be the consensus number 1, but can't harness his stuff. Does he go to AAA or stay in AA? Crick and Beede could form a fantastic 2-3 punch behind Bum if they can fix their command problems.

Arroyo maintains his spot despite a terrible start in Augusta, based on raw tools and character. He sustained injuries and was out awhile, but returned to Salem and mashed. He'll likely start in Augusta again with a chance to move up to San Jose and show why the Giants drafted him so high.

Mella is my favorite prospect, and is still a little under the radar. High 90s fastball, plus-plus changeup, wicked 12-6 curveball, but inconsistent throwing it. Advance command for his age, knows how to pitch. Still needs to work on mechanics and did sustain a rotator-cuff injury last year, which shielded him a little in the spotlight. He could very easily be the top pitcher in the system. Giants received a ton of phone calls on this kid at the trade deadline, and I'm sure they still get a lot to this day.

Williamson sticks on the list despite the injury. He's just too talented, possible 5-tool guy. We'll keep everyone updated on his recovery status. Could push for starting job in 2016, as could Carbonell. Carbonell could even be Pagan insurance is he shows something in AAA. Matt Duffy can be a 1-WAR player off the bench, maybe even has a chance to start.

Blackburn continues to show he can be a 4-5 starter at the ML level, could be insurance this year. First of the big group of Giants starting pitchers to make, with Ty Blach. While the rest stumbled or were traded, these 2 figured it out. Ysla is a big lefty, had a nice year in Augusta. Gotta give him the edge for being lefty.

 

[SFGRTB]

As DrB mentioned, for the first time since about 2011, the Giants had/have a lot of contributors ready in the minors. It started late last year with Panik/Duffy/Susac/Strickland/Adrianza/Duvall/Perez and next year it will continue. Candidates include Blackburn, Carbonell, Ty Blach and a wealth of relief arms including: Derek Law, Cody Hall, Steve Okert (the Jeremy Affeldt clone/replacement), and Josh Osich.

 

[Stokes1931]

Susac is my number 1, and I think he's a clear number 1. Very talented hitter, sound defensively, has the best teachers anyone could ask for and has already shown a little in the MLB. It will be very interesting to see how he is integrated into the lineup, and how his future unravels in SF.

1. Susac (MLB/AAA)
2. Beede (A+)
3. Crick (AA/AAA)
4. Arroyo (A-)
5. Mella (A+)
6. Blackburn (AAA)
7. Duffy (MLB/AAA)
8. Carbonell (AAA/MLB/AA)
9. Williamson (AA/A+)
10. Luis Ysla (A+)

Beede is the new guy, head of a great draft class. He, like Crick, has some of the best raw stuff in the system but will struggle with command for now. Ideally, the Giants can fix this, they have some of the best in the business to do so. He's probably going straight to San Jose, skipping Augusta.

Crick needs to start putting it together, he was 1 on my list last year but down to 3 this year. Injuries haven't helped, but he still walks way too many guys. He has all the talent to be the consensus number 1, but can't harness his stuff. Does he go to AAA or stay in AA? Crick and Beede could form a fantastic 2-3 punch behind Bum if they can fix their command problems.

Arroyo maintains his spot despite a terrible start in Augusta, based on raw tools and character. He sustained injuries and was out awhile, but returned to Salem and mashed. He'll likely start in Augusta again with a chance to move up to San Jose and show why the Giants drafted him so high.

Mella is my favorite prospect, and is still a little under the radar. High 90s fastball, plus-plus changeup, wicked 12-6 curveball, but inconsistent throwing it. Advance command for his age, knows how to pitch. Still needs to work on mechanics and did sustain a rotator-cuff injury last year, which shielded him a little in the spotlight. He could very easily be the top pitcher in the system. Giants received a ton of phone calls on this kid at the trade deadline, and I'm sure they still get a lot to this day.

Williamson sticks on the list despite the injury. He's just too talented, possible 5-tool guy. We'll keep everyone updated on his recovery status. Could push for starting job in 2016, as could Carbonell. Carbonell could even be Pagan insurance is he shows something in AAA. Matt Duffy can be a 1-WAR player off the bench, maybe even has a chance to start.

Blackburn continues to show he can be a 4-5 starter at the ML level, could be insurance this year. First of the big group of Giants starting pitchers to make, with Ty Blach. While the rest stumbled or were traded, these 2 figured it out. Ysla is a big lefty, had a nice year in Augusta. Gotta give him the edge for being lefty.

Nicely done.

I saw nothing in Carbonell in the Arizona Fall League that indicates much positive. He did hit a looooooong home run, but otherwise was miserable at the plate. SSS, I know, but he should have eaten up that competition. Quinn from the Phillies was light years beyond Carbonell as a young OF with speed.

 

[Sandisfan]

Thanks for the reporting...sf giants r the best I appreciate the effort to inform us lazy or disconnected from seeing players or following their performances.

I was down on Brown (Gary) a few years ago and saw him as a bust pretty early..... Now I have the same feeling about Crick after all a pitcher without control is an eventually out of baseball pitcher... But then when Panik stalled I gave up on him so I hope I'm as wrong about Crick as I was about Panik.

 

[SFGRTB]

Nicely done.

I saw nothing in Carbonell in the Arizona Fall League that indicates much positive. He did hit a looooooong home run, but otherwise was miserable at the plate. SSS, I know, but he should have eaten up that competition. Quinn from the Phillies was light years beyond Carbonell as a young OF with speed.

Yeah, I saw a lot of good reports from his regular season. But scouts questioned his ability transitioning to the ML level once the AFL came around. I'm not sure where he is going to start. I would have assumed AA, but he was so overmatched in the AFL and AA won't do any favors, so maybe he'll start in San Jose. But he crushed that league. He's a very interesting prospect. My guess is he could be a solid 3rd OFer, but more likely a bench guy. Gregor Blanco-esq.

 

[SFGRTB]

Thanks for the reporting...sf giants r the best I appreciate the effort to inform us lazy or disconnected from seeing players or following their performances.

I was down on Brown (Gary) a few years ago and saw him as a bust pretty early..... Now I have the same feeling about Crick after all a pitcher without control is an eventually out of baseball pitcher... But then when Panik stalled I gave up on him so I hope I'm as wrong about Crick as I was about Panik.

Between Cal and I, and tzill, we like to pass along prospect information. I think we get a lot of our info from different sources too, which is nice. DrB is great, I like CoveChatter and others.

This is a big year for Crick. It's beginning to sound like a broken record, injury problems and command issues every year. But his stuff is so good, he strikes a ton of guys out and they just can't square him up (9 homers in 277 innings). He's still very young, and unlike Brown, there are signs of hope. With Brown, he was very undisciplined in all facets of the game; at the plate, in the field, on the bases. His numbers greatly suffered after the huge year in SJ. Crick has been consistent with his peripheral numbers, and is hopefully a healthy season away from figuring it out, it's hard to fix the problem when he keeps falling with various nagging injuries (which could be something to worry about itself).

 

[Stokes1931]

Thanks for the reporting...sf giants r the best I appreciate the effort to inform us lazy or disconnected from seeing players or following their performances.

I was down on Brown (Gary) a few years ago and saw him as a bust pretty early..... Now I have the same feeling about Crick after all a pitcher without control is an eventually out of baseball pitcher... But then when Panik stalled I gave up on him so I hope I'm as wrong about Crick as I was about Panik.

Nolan Ryan says "hi".

I agree with you. But a guy with Crick's stuff will not be expected to be Greg Maddux or anything, so a little wildness is to be expected. He needs to work on his control and his secondary pitches. The org seems to be high on him, and he is still quite young.

 

[Sandisfan]

Between Cal and I, and tzill, we like to pass along prospect information. I think we get a lot of our info from different sources too, which is nice. DrB is great, I like CoveChatter and others.

This is a big year for Crick. It's beginning to sound like a broken record, injury problems and command issues every year. But his stuff is so good, he strikes a ton of guys out and they just can't square him up (9 homers in 277 innings). He's still very young, and unlike Brown, there are signs of hope. With Brown, he was very undisciplined in all facets of the game; at the plate, in the field, on the bases. His numbers greatly suffered after the huge year in SJ. Crick has been consistent with his peripheral numbers, and is hopefully a healthy season away from figuring it out, it's hard to fix the problem when he keeps falling with various nagging injuries (which could be something to worry about itself).

Thanks for the clarification on Crick. Not being particularly knowledgeable about Crick.... I assumed that it could end up like often happens when a very hard thrower gets traded to another team and the fans want to know why they got a guy with such a good arm for a utility/bench player.

I feel better about his future now.

 

[SFGRTB]

Baseball America's top 10 is out. Dr.B released his top 50. Keith Law is in the process, but ranked all 30 farm systems.

BA's top 10:

Susac
Beede
Crick
Mella
Blackburn
Mejia
Blach
Strickland
Duffy
Arroyo

BA said that Williamson, Stratton, Duvall and the impressive trio of relievers [Okert, Law, BLACK (my favorite)] were in consideration for the top 10

Dr.B's top 10:

Beede
Susac
Crick
Arroyo
Williamson
Eddie [Mikey]
Mella
Blackburn
Carbonell
Duffy

Keith Law ranked the Giants farm 29/30th. I don't have insider so I can't read the entire write-up, but it wasn't a bashing by any means. He stated that the Giants have used their minor leaguers wisely through trades and by generally drafting low the last few years.

A common theme is Ray Black love, and the potential of the Giants pen in the next few years.

 

[calsnowskier]

Baseball America's top 10 is out. Dr.B released his top 50. Keith Law is in the process, but ranked all 30 farm systems.

BA's top 10:

Susac
Beede
Crick
Mella
Blackburn
Mejia
Blach
Strickland
Duffy
Arroyo

BA said that Williamson, Stratton, Duvall and the impressive trio of relievers [Okert, Law, BLACK (my favorite)] were in consideration for the top 10

Dr.B's top 10:

Beede
Susac
Crick
Arroyo
Williamson
Eddie [Mikey]
Mella
Blackburn
Carbonell
Duffy

Keith Law ranked the Giants farm 29/30th. I don't have insider so I can't read the entire write-up, but it wasn't a bashing by any means. He stated that the Giants have used their minor leaguers wisely through trades and by generally drafting low the last few years.

A common theme is Ray Black love, and the potential of the Giants pen in the next few years.

Law's writeup is posted in the MLB General board here on the Hoop, if you want to check it out.

 

[SFGRTB]

Law's writeup is posted in the MLB General board here on the Hoop, if you want to check it out.

I will, thanks.

 

[moxie]

Law's Top 10 prospects

1. Andrew Susac, C
2. Keury Mella, RHP
3. Kyle Crick, RHP
4. Clayton Blackburn, RHP
5. Tyler Beede, RHP
6. Adalberto Mejia, LHP
7. Mac Williamson, RF
8. Ty Blach, RHP
9. Christian Arroyo, 2B
10. Michael Santos, RHP

Overview

Mella is the potential jewel here, and would probably have sneaked into the top 100 if his season hadn't been curtailed by a rotator cuff injury, although he did come back healthy at the end of the summer. He sits 93-95 mph with plus sink, generating a ground ball rate near 60 percent in 2014, with a power curveball that projects to be his swing-and-miss pitch. Crick had another year of poor command, and the odds of him ending up a reliever just keep increasing even though he has the size and velocity to start. Blackburn is at the opposite end of the pitching spectrum, pitching at just 88-89 but with good sink, plus command, and an above-average curveball. He allowed just one home run in 93 innings in Double-A, generating a 56 percent ground ball rate, and has walked only 75 guys in 395 pro innings, with consistently good strikeout rates. Beede was their first-round pick in 2014, a top-10 talent earlier in the spring who had a weak finish and scared teams with his wobbly command and difficulty pitching out of trouble; it's a No. 2-starter package in terms of stuff, size and delivery, and if you're a Giants fan, well, In Tidrow We Trust. Williamson missed most of the year after Tommy John surgery, and with his hit tool his weak spot he sorely needed those at bats. Arroyo, their first-round pick in 2014, struggled in the Sally League but turned his season around after a demotion to the Northwest League. He wasn't too old for the lower level and returned to shortstop after the move down, although I see zero chance he stays there in the long run. Mejia, Blach and Luis Ysla (12) are all potential back-end starters, although Blach hasn't shown he can miss enough bats for that role, and Mejia is out 50 games after testing positive for a banned (and dangerous) stimulant.

Ray Black (11) throws 97-100 mph with a plus slider, but missed two and a half years with shoulder problems and pitched just once in April before another DL stint, staying healthy from May through year-end. He's on the 40-man roster now, and there's really no reason to wait for him -- if he's able to handle the work, he should be in the big leagues this year. Lefty Stephen Okert (15) could join him there after dominating high-A and Double-A last year. Cody Hall (13) just turned 27, but he's been up to 100 in relief as well and had a ridiculously good winter in Venezuela, allowing just one run and 10 baserunners in 17 innings as the closer for Caribes. Joan Gregorio (16) didn't take the step forward I expected, although he still has the above-average fastball and some projection, just not the results to consider him above all of these more probable big leaguers. Austin Slater (14), their eighth-round pick out of Stanford last year, is a better hitter than his draft position might indicate, with at least doubles power and average speed.

2015 impact

Susac should find his way into 300-400 at bats this year, spelling Buster Posey behind the plate when Posey plays first or is the DH in AL parks. Okert, Hall and Black are all candidates for relief work in the majors this year.

The fallen

Chris Stratton (18) was their first-round pick in 2012, but his fastball backed up after he signed and he struggled in the high-A Cal League as a 23-year-old last year; his upside is probably as a setup man who works fastball/slider.

Sleeper

Santos was one of the biggest surprises in the Arizona Rookie League this summer, an athletic right-hander who was already up to 93 with tight rotation on his curveball. Listed at 6-foot-4 and 170 pounds, he has quite a bit of room to fill out and add some velocity.

p.s. Please don't hesitate to send me a PM if there's an Insider article you want posted. Not sure how much longer I have the subscription, so might as well get some use out of it while I can (they keep auto-renewing and I forget to cancel)

 

[MarcoPolo]

{...} Arroyo, their first-round pick in 2014 {...}

Correction: Arroyo was their 2013 first-round pick.

Interesting read - Thx for posting, Moxie !

I found it *very* surprising to read " {Ray Black is} on the 40-man roster now, and there's really no reason to wait for him -- if he's able to handle the work, he should be in the big leagues this year. ", since he's only had ONE year of pro ball in the low minors. Yes, he pitched outstandingly well, but c'mon!

 

[SFGRTB]

Correction: Arroyo was their 2013 first-round pick.

Interesting read - Thx for posting, Moxie !

I found it *very* surprising to read " {Ray Black is} on the 40-man roster now, and there's really no reason to wait for him -- if he's able to handle the work, he should be in the big leagues this year. ", since he's only had ONE year of pro ball in the low minors. Yes, he pitched outstandingly well, but c'mon!

I agree with Law here about Ray Black. Yes, the kid has only pitched in A-ball, but his stuff is REAL. He would have the best fastball and slider on the team if he made it. The real kicker is that the Giants may as well get as much out of him as they can before he blows his arm off. What he needs to know about being a major league reliever he can learn at the major league level. I doubt he'll start in SF (unless he just completely dominates this Spring), but he'll get an aggressive promotion (AA if not AAA) and could see SF by June.

 

[SFGRTB]

Law's Top 10 prospects



p.s. Please don't hesitate to send me a PM if there's an Insider article you want posted. Not sure how much longer I have the subscription, so might as well get some use out of it while I can (they keep auto-renewing and I forget to cancel)

Thanks! Law pretty much reiterates everything that's been said about the Giants farm: deep with solid players who can impact the majors, with potential hidden gems that could become top 100 guys, not any can't miss prospects (yet!).

I like our farm. We really saw the benefits of what a solid farm can do for you last year. And conversely we saw what a poor farm can do for you in 2013. With more help on the way this year, and plenty of trade chips, the Giants are once again in good position to make in-season deals.

 

[Pattersonca65]

I'll have to look for the Single A players when they come to play in Modesto. I go to quite a few of the SJ Giant/Modesto games.

What happened to the center fielder Gary Brown? Looks like he isn't going to be the player they thought he could be.

 

[Mays-Fan]

I'll have to look for the Single A players when they come to play in Modesto. I go to quite a few of the SJ Giant/Modesto games.

What happened to the center fielder Gary Brown? Looks like he isn't going to be the player they thought he could be.

He had one good year in the low minors and people got enamored with him. Thinks he has speed but get thrown out at high rates. Looks like a 'roids profile to me.

 

[Pattersonca65]

He had one good year in the low minors and people got enamored with him. Thinks he has speed but get thrown out at high rates. Looks like a 'roids profile to me.

Yea, I read something the other day that he is getting to the age where it becomes unlikely he is going to pan out, at least as a significant player. I guess he could be one of the journeyman backup type of players.

 

[SFGRTB]

Yea, I read something the other day that he is getting to the age where it becomes unlikely he is going to pan out, at least as a significant player. I guess he could be one of the journeyman backup type of players.

He's pretty much nothing more than a 4th OFer now. He has continued to ignore coaching all the way back to his days in college and hasn't responded well to negative feedback. He's still the fastest guy in the organization, but he is terrible on the bases. He's just not a smart player. The Giants tried to turn him into a more slap hitter to utilize his speed, and he responded by saying he a gap-power hitter. Sound familiar?

He just doesn't get it, until he realizes what his strengths are (world-class speed and excellent defense) and keeps trying to be something he's not, he's going to be a AAAA player. It might take a fresh start for him somewhere else to figure it out.