2014 Pirates

[thecrow124]

why so much whining about the FO in the burnett situation. wait until it actually plays out then you have plenty of time to moan all you want.
i said earlier, no reason to offer burnett a qualifying offer.
we has made over 100 million. he realized while being in NY that money and even winning doesn't bring peace.
he likes the pirates, the front office, and especially the teammates. i take him at face value that it is the pirates or retire. if not, then he isn't really the honest chemistry guy he is portrayed to be.

he is older, still hasn't played he whole year without being injured, and doesn't rise in the big game. yes he was our number 1 last year and number 3 this year, but 14 million for a rickety hot head #3 and possibly 4 by the end of the year, is a stretch.

they can always give him 14 if that is what he and the FO agree to, but why be locked into it if you don't have to. if he was 32 and made all 33 starts the last 2 years, i would consider it. or if we had nobody and no depth, maybe i consider it. but the context is much different.

this FO has shown a high degree of competence in resurrecting this team from the ashes. have all the decisions been good ones, certainly not. but in fairness, we don't know what the options were in those decisions. we do know they had very limited bargaining power, leverage, or attractiveness to FA. also, we valued our player/prospects highly in our proposed trades, but did other GMs. almost none of them, other than bautista have really panned out for others.
just saying .......

Just when I was ready to give NH the benefit of the doubt, he goes and says something that reminds me that ownership is still a bunch of cheap bastards. After stating his entire tenure that when it was time to step up and pay player, when we were reasdy to contend, he had the ability and blessing to do so, he comes out on the radio yesterday and says $14 million for AJ does not fit into our budget. Really? Burnett isn't worth that? In truth what it means is this, Wandy screwed us, by Wandy excerising his option, we have to pay $8.5 million to a guy that will not throw a pitch for us this year, and that my friends, is why one bad co tract is death to small market teams.

On the bright side there are ways to get around this, and I am sure NH will explore them. My personal favorite would be to trade our comp balance pick and some international signing money and Wandy, to a team that can absorb the money and wants the pick and international money.......Dodgers anyone?

That is a lot to give up for a small market team that needs every avenue of talent acquisition at its disposal, but I believe it is a better option than carrying around that much salary for an entire year, when that money should be used to help fill holes to help you compete.

 

[sychmd]

wandy's deal is an unknown.
does he come back and give us a quality lefty as a #3 for 8.5M. that would have been a huge asset against the cards who couldn't beat a LHP at all.

NH is correct, 14.1 for an old burnett who doesn't win the big game and doesn't go 33 starts, and is a bit of a hot head (altho a good teammate) is too much. if burnett is interested in 8-10 M to have another chance at a WS, then he will sign.
dont commit the money now as he might need it to go after some other pieces. once the dealing and signing is over, and if he has 14 M for one yr of burnett, then Ok,
i would rather see the money go to the pot of keeping our young guys and buying out years so we can keep cutch, marte, cole. alvarez, when the time comes if possible.

 

[thecrow124]

wandy's deal is an unknown.
does he come back and give us a quality lefty as a #3 for 8.5M. that would have been a huge asset against the cards who couldn't beat a LHP at all.

NH is correct, 14.1 for an old burnett who doesn't win the big game and doesn't go 33 starts, and is a bit of a hot head (altho a good teammate) is too much. if burnett is interested in 8-10 M to have another chance at a WS, then he will sign.
dont commit the money now as he might need it to go after some other pieces. once the dealing and signing is over, and if he has 14 M for one yr of burnett, then Ok,
i would rather see the money go to the pot of keeping our young guys and buying out years so we can keep cutch, marte, cole. alvarez, when the time comes if possible.

There is no magic pot of money to keep our young players, and honestly, the only players I am worried about keeping, that we actually have a real shot at keeping are:
1. Cutch, who we have locked up through his age 31 season, although, the last year and 2 option years are likely to be out of our price range.
2. Marte, as he is the only other position player on the roster that has star abilities.
3. Morton, but only because he gives great value for his likely pricetag.
4. Polanco/Hansen, but even then not until they establish themselves.

And that is it, personally, I would look to trade Pedro this offseason, his value may never be higher, and his worth will never be what most Pirate fans feel his value is.

Cole will never sign long term here, nor will he ever give up free agent years for what we can pay him.

The bigger effect may come in the perception of the Pirates. We just played in the postseason for the first time in a generation. We traded legit prospects for major league help at the trade deadline to help the major league roster. Free agents may have actually been looking at this as a place to come and play for a contender. However, now seeing that the Pirates are still to cheap to pay anyone, even the one guy that came in and solidified the clubhouse, and revitalized the entire city around a baseball team that was a laughingstock for 20 years, they don't want to pay that guy to stay and help them win more, why would good free agents want to come here for that? We will again be hoping that we can sign some reclamation scrap heapers in hopes that they all revive their careers in the same season again.

If we go into next season with a higher payroll than we ended this season with I will be shocked, even though the new tv revenues will be rolling in.

 

[sychmd]

how many high priced FA play up to their contract. not many.
overpaying for players, especially pitchers are a gamble for everyone, even the yanks. look what they did with burnett. over paid and had to pay someone a lot to take him off their hands.

pitchers are developed, and not bought. when you have them, you need to try and keep them, but for a reasonable price, sometimes a little higher, but not exorbitant, especially if they are over 31/32.

 

[thecrow124]

how many high priced FA play up to their contract. not many.
overpaying for players, especially pitchers are a gamble for everyone, even the yanks. look what they did with burnett. over paid and had to pay someone a lot to take him off their hands.

pitchers are developed, and not bought. when you have them, you need to try and keep them, but for a reasonable price, sometimes a little higher, but not exorbitant, especially if they are over 31/32.

But look at what Burnett has done the last 2 seasons in Pittsburgh, he provided value, pretty much on par with what he was getting paid, the $16.5 million variety of value, not the $8.5 that the Pirates paid. $14.1 million is a very fair amount for what he brings. If you feel that he is a 3 WAR pitcher, which is what he has been for us, then fair market value would be about $16.5-$18million depending on factors like age and contract length. So using that criteria, the $14.1 million QO should have been a no-brainer. My thinking has no bearing on where I see him slotted into the rotation, it is solely based on his market value.

Arguements can be made that he hasn't pitched up to his contract in big situations, or in NY, or even that he is old. But if you really think we are a better team with Jeff Locke in our rotation instead of AJ, you would be wrong. I understand that the object of every team is to win a world championship, and his poor showing in the playoffs has not helped his teams in that regard, but I would argue that in order to win a championship, you must first make the postseason, and he does help us in that regard.

Regardless of our different views on this matter, if he is signed for less than $14.1 million by NH then I will look like a fool again. However if he signs with another team for any amount of money, Huntington will look like an idiot again, and that is not what I want from my GM. The one thing I will say though is why are no Pirates campaigning publicly to get him back? There may be more than we know to this story.

 

[Illinest]

The pirates are simply not acting like a team that wants to contend for a championship. Whether aj burnett is the best or fifth best pitcher on the roster, he's a talented player who is worth more than what it would've taken to sign him.

I hope we can keep ourselves realistic and not get caught up in justifying the team's penny-pinching ways. We have one of the richest owners in baseball and a good sports market, small size or not. Look at the ratings for any pittsburgh team. Look at the Penguins, usually in the top handful. The Pirates shared in that. New revenue from the recent tv deals is just another factor, and competitive teams in our division and of a similar market size were spending 90 - 120 million per year before the new revenue. Now we're in a division where teams will be spending 115 - 145 million. That means we have to spend 90 million a year just to keep up relative to everyone else. 90 million is the floor!
So we've got maybe 65 million accounted for and Neil is trying to tell us that 14 million isn't in the budget. That's bullshit. A QO for Burnett only puts us at 80 million maybe, (not that i even expect that aj would accept that) and there's still enough room to sign another solid player.

A 75 or 80 million dollar payroll (if that's where we end up) would be a salary reduction. We would be spending less money relative to our income. This is ridiculous if true.


What i expected was to sign aj at 15-20 million and then i wanted neil to finally fulfill his promise of spending when the team is ready to compete. Add another 15-20 million dollar player. Beltran if he's willing. Maybe Napoli if he can be had.

Or think outside the box. Split the cost on the rest of ryan howard's contract. Risky but with a big upside if his legs are finally straightened out (as his camp has claimed that they are)

 

[element1286]

Isn't the point still to get the player at a decent cost? If everyone gets another 25 million dollars no one is getting a comparative advantage, everything will just be more expensive through inflation. Why do you think you see Ervin Santana and Nolasco asking for 100 million, it's not because they are great pitchers.

Throwing money at anyone with a pulse makes zero sense. The Pirates comparative advantage was the playoffs, and increased attendance therein, everything else is a wash.

 

[TheBurgh88]

Looks like Byrd to the Phillies @ 2 years /16 million

That seems like a good value. One more guy gone. I think unless there was an agreement with AJ to take less money they will regret not extending him that QO. I think he plays elsewhere next year.

It's early but I'm still skeptical about how much they will spend since they did say when they had a playoff team they would spend the money. If they can add a few pieces when Alvarez, McCutchen, Cole, Marte are really cheap/reasonable what will happen when they aren't?

 

[element1286]

I'm glad the Pirates didn't sign Byrd, good hitter, but this lineup needs more OBP presence, and who knows if last year was a last hurrah or a new beginning.

 

[Illinest]

Nobody wants to throw money at anyone with a pulse.

I do want the fans to be realistic about the fact that players cost more than they did last year. You can take any value that seems like it might've been fair in 2013 and add 15-20% to it and that's what you should expect a player to cost in 2014.

This increased revenue should be a balancing factor for the Pirates, but it's only true if they spend every penny of it.

I present two hypothetical situations:
A. No revenue sharing at all. Each team's budget is 100% determined by their own revenue. The Yankees have an income of 100 million dollars. The Pirates have an income of 50 million dollars. The Pirates' budget is therefore 50% of the Yankees'.

B. 25 percent of each team's revenue is pooled and shared evenly: For the sake of easy math I'll assume that 15 teams have 100 million dollars in revenue and 15 teams have 50 million dollars in revenue. That makes the pool 562.5 million and each team receives 18.75 from it.
Essentially the Yankees would be taking 6.25 million dollars out of their budget and giving it to the Pirates and 14 other rich teams would do the same for the 14 remaining poor teams.
Now the Pirates' budget is 56.25 and the Yankees budget is 93.75 and the Pirates budget is 60%of the Yankees'.

So the Pirates are on better financial footing as long as they spend the revenue sharing dollars. If they don't spend it then they're wasting an opportunity to reduce the fiscal disadvantages.


But I should point out that the example that I gave is for existing revenue, not a new source of revenue. This tv contract is additional revenue that the players are going to share. The owners might not prefer to share it but they're not all going to hold firm against higher salary demands. Their job is to assemble winning teams, not stand fast on principles.



But I am also glad that we didn't sign Byrd. I don't see his season as a rebirth, I think it was just a one-time deal. I also think that we need guys who get on base. Shin Soo Choo would be an excellent target, as would Cano.

But - silly me - I'm actually expecting the Pirates to spend money. Oh dear.

 

[pixburgher66]

Choo would be a great pick up, but I imagine he's looking long term, and I don't know that the Pirates want that with Polanco in the wings.

 

[element1286]

Nobody wants to throw money at anyone with a pulse.

I do want the fans to be realistic about the fact that players cost more than they did last year. You can take any value that seems like it might've been fair in 2013 and add 15-20% to it and that's what you should expect a player to cost in 2014.

This increased revenue should be a balancing factor for the Pirates, but it's only true if they spend every penny of it.

I present two hypothetical situations:
A. No revenue sharing at all. Each team's budget is 100% determined by their own revenue. The Yankees have an income of 100 million dollars. The Pirates have an income of 50 million dollars. The Pirates' budget is therefore 50% of the Yankees'.

B. 25 percent of each team's revenue is pooled and shared evenly: For the sake of easy math I'll assume that 15 teams have 100 million dollars in revenue and 15 teams have 50 million dollars in revenue. That makes the pool 562.5 million and each team receives 18.75 from it.
Essentially the Yankees would be taking 6.25 million dollars out of their budget and giving it to the Pirates and 14 other rich teams would do the same for the 14 remaining poor teams.
Now the Pirates' budget is 56.25 and the Yankees budget is 93.75 and the Pirates budget is 60%of the Yankees'.

So the Pirates are on better financial footing as long as they spend the revenue sharing dollars. If they don't spend it then they're wasting an opportunity to reduce the fiscal disadvantages.


But I should point out that the example that I gave is for existing revenue, not a new source of revenue. This tv contract is additional revenue that the players are going to share. The owners might not prefer to share it but they're not all going to hold firm against higher salary demands. Their job is to assemble winning teams, not stand fast on principles.



But I am also glad that we didn't sign Byrd. I don't see his season as a rebirth, I think it was just a one-time deal. I also think that we need guys who get on base. Shin Soo Choo would be an excellent target, as would Cano.

But - silly me - I'm actually expecting the Pirates to spend money. Oh dear.

If you are really trying to turn this into a "Pirates don't spend money" debate, it's wholly uninteresting. NH has shown that he has some sort of internal evaluation system he sticks to very closely, in Burnett's case it is a poor thing to stick to.

Suggesting throwing money at Ryan Howard is the definition of 'anyone with a pulse'

 

[element1286]

I'd like to see what Omar Infante would cost, he's actually everything Josh Harrision is supposed to be.

 

[Illinest]

Ryan howard is probably worth 5-10 per year. The pirates offer to take on 10 -13 million per year. Phillies swallow the rest.

Phillies get:
- 1B open for Howard's replacement
- free up 10 - 13 million to pursue other needs
- whatever they get from us in the trade.

Pirates get:
- a LH power hitter who still mashes righties
- i think he's also a bounceback candidate
- a manageable cost of 10-13 per year over the next 3 years.

It's risky if you believe that Howard's career is done but i think the one injury lead to the other and i think he's probably going to be good now that he had some time off. His camp reports that he's back to full speed (well - his version of full speed) and his "poor" performance last year wasn't actually all that bad. I think he's good for 25 homeruns and an OPS north of .800 with the potential for more. I'd keep gaby and spot howard against lefties too.

But that's just an idea. I like ike davis better if he's available. Or maybe sandoval but i don't think we would like the price of sandoval.

 

[thecrow124]

Ryan howard is probably worth 5-10 per year. The pirates offer to take on 10 -13 million per year. Phillies swallow the rest.

Phillies get:
- 1B open for Howard's replacement
- free up 10 - 13 million to pursue other needs
- whatever they get from us in the trade.

Pirates get:
- a LH power hitter who still mashes righties
- i think he's also a bounceback candidate
- a manageable cost of 10-13 per year over the next 3 years.

It's risky if you believe that Howard's career is done but i think the one injury lead to the other and i think he's probably going to be good now that he had some time off. His camp reports that he's back to full speed (well - his version of full speed) and his "poor" performance last year wasn't actually all that bad. I think he's good for 25 homeruns and an OPS north of .800 with the potential for more. I'd keep gaby and spot howard against lefties too.

But that's just an idea. I like ike davis better if he's available. Or maybe sandoval but i don't think we would like the price of sandoval.

I want no part of 2014 Ryan Howard at any price. Nothing against Howard, but he would block Pedro's move to first base. He also adds no value other than power, and we have Pedro for that. We will be downgrading defense at short and possibly transitioning from Martin to Sanchez behind the plate, that is 2 downgrades at premium defensive positions, we can't afford to downgrade at any other positions, even first base. Ryan Howard may well be worth $10 million per year offensively, but he might negate every bit of that value with his defense. Add in the fact that he is likely to be injured for over half the year, and it just seems to be a poor choice to try to bring in.

If you want to look to bring someone in, try to find someone with more overall value and better cost control.

 

[Illinest]

I think you'll be shocked 2 years from now when you realize that ryan howard would've been the best value available (assuming 12 mill or less) but that's just a prediction and we'll just have to remember that i made it.

I do not think ryan howard is injury prone. I think he hurt his leg and the subsequent weakness in that leg caused him to have another - less severe - injury that was fundamentally related to the first. I think that his long offseason will prove to be very beneficial and i think that he's going to be pretty productive in 2014.

I do not think that alvarez is destined for 1b either. That was something that i used to think when all i knew about him was that scouts were concerned about his body type. Now that i've seen him play and have some statistical information about his range i think that he's good to stay at 3rd base for at least a few more years.

I also think that you're making a mistake in comparing howard to alvarez. They are both big lefties who mash the ball and strike out a lot, but Howard has had some decent BA seasons and he gets on base more than Alvarez. He's also unlike another contemporary hitter, Morneau (whom some supported re-signing) in that Howard's power is so prodigious that he won't have to worry about turning into a slap-hitter.


This is all just a way to kill time though isn't it? I did say that i prefer other options over Howard. My list of wants and needs goes a bit like this:

1. Sign a starting pitcher of some pedigree. I don't trust locke or wandy to be productive or healthy. Losing burnett is a big blow. If we aren't signing Burnett then we need to be in play for someone of similar talents (and price). An interesting proposal that i've seen is the idea of trading for David Price. That would be acceptable.

2. Sign a real hitter. Beltran may be the best fit for us because he is probably satisfied with 2 - 3 years at this point in his career. Choo has a different skillset and is younger, so he may overlap with Polanco in ways that aren't great. Still a good option though, i would be thrilled to sign Choo. Cano would be nice to have. I would be happy to shift Walker around if we could sign Cano. Napoli would be a decent acquisition. I do not like Morales or Loney much. As the second and third best FA 1B in a weak market they stand to be overpaid by a significant amount and if you think Ryan Howard can't play 1B then you can't really support Morales either. As for Loney - his "good" season last year was less productive than Howard's "bad" season. You should look closer at the two players if that seems surprising.

3. After we sign that guy then we go for other positions. If Napoli - for example, then maybe we call RF an audition between Tabata and Lambo and seek infield help. There is a need for at least one strong fielder who can play SS, but not Barmes. Please no.

4. One other alternative - try to trade for a SS and work out from there. Texas still has a surplus and the Cards are shopping for Tulo. Grabbing Tulowitzki out from under their noses would be expensive but potentially very much worth it.

 

[thecrow124]

I would feel more comfortable with a guy like Andre Ethier if we were to delve into the trade market. I am not a huge fan of him, but he would bring a lot of value to our team. He gets on base pretty well, has pretty decent power from the left side of the plate, plays RF currently, but I could see him moving to 1B and being possibly the most athletic first baseman in the National League.

He is also presumably available since LA has 4 major league outfielders. Don't get me wrong, they also have the payroll to where they don't have to trade him. In a vaccum I think they would rather move Crawford, but I am pretty sure that I want to part of that deal.

The real problem would be matching up on a trade with a team that may be more inclined to keep him due to the injury history with 2 of its other outfielders. So to get the Dodgers to eat much of his contract, it is going to cost us in the way of prospects. Probably somewhere in the middle of NH's stupid and insane level from last season.

I would have to do some research to try to come up with a fair trade that would also work for both teams. Dodgers, if they even wanted prospects would want pitching that is close to major league ready, they could also use bullpen help, and a 4th OFer and possibly depth for the infield. As much as it hurts to say, it is hard to find holes with that team. The biggest is definitely the bullpen, and we have depth there, but you don' t give up a decent major league starting outfielder for bullpen help.

 

[element1286]

I don't dislike Eithier, but that contract is an albatross. Not the per year value as much as the length. Either at two years 10-15 million you can handle, but having him till 2017 at that price is unworkable.

 

[thecrow124]

I don't dislike Eithier, but that contract is an albatross. Not the per year value as much as the length. Either at two years 10-15 million you can handle, but having him till 2017 at that price is unworkable.

Agreed, but my hope would be that we had someone ready by then to take over for him and try to move him. Even if the return is nil, if you could get the 2 productive years out of him you needed then it could be worth it. I am by no means suggesting this is something we need to do or should do, just trying to give a more viable option than Ryan Howard.

Then again if you get LAD to pay half the contract then the cost is something we could absorb. However, the price in return for getting them to pick up that tab could make the move prohibitive.

 

[element1286]

If they are going down that path, I'd rather go after Jose Bautista than mess around with Ethier. You'd have to give up more prospects for sure.