2014 cap

[jakedog56]

I know that it is a bit early to start talking cap with the playoffs still a few weeks away but since it was brought up in the Bennett thread, I thought that I would jump in.

According to the rules, the top 51 salaries count against the cap number. For 2014 we currently have 44 players under contract for the total amount of about $123.8 million with an additional approximately $2.5 million coming off of the books (dead money, etc.)

This leaves the Seahawks with about $8.7 million in cap room to sign / resign players.

2014 UFA currently on the roster and their current salary (I round off a bit on the dollar amounts):

Micheal Bennett: $4.8 million
Breno Giacomini: $4.25 million
Paul McQuistan: $3.375 million
Golden Tate: $880,000
Chris Maragos: $855,00
Tavaris Jackson: $840,000
Brandon Browner: $774,000
Walter Thurmond: $755,000
Kellen Davis: $672,000
Anthony McCoy: $656,000
O'Brien Schofield: $630,000
Steven Hauschka: $620,000
Tony McDaniel: $605,000
Clinton McDonald: $593,000
Lemuel Jeanpierre: $555,000
Micheal Robinson: $326,500

From this list I would assume that Bennett (if he stays, which I hope he does!) will get a raise. Also Golden Tate will be getting a raise. Thurmond (also if he stays) will be getting a raise.

I would persume that Hauschka, McDonald, and McDaniel would also get nominal raises if they stay.
Of the rest, I can't see anyone more than treading water. I don't see Breno or Paul McQ getting anything significantly more than they already are getting if they are resigned.

You also have Doug Baldwin, Jerron Johnson, and Mike Morgan as RFAs. Morgan and Johnson have $1.225 million qualifying tender numbers, and Doug Baldwin has a $2.5 million tender.

To clear more cap room, players could be cut or have their contracts reworked. Rice is the one most assumed to be gone. I have listed here by player salary - dead money which = Potential cap saved

Sidney Rice; Salary $9.7 million - Dead money $2.4 million = Savings $7.3 million
Chris Clemons; $9.67 million - $2.17 million = $7.5 million
Cliff Avril; $9.25 million - $2.25 million = $7 million
Red Bryant; $8.5 million - $3 million = $5.5 million
Brandon Mebane; $5.7 million - $400,000 = $5.3 million
Zach Miller; $7 million - $2 million = $5 million

Now, cutting these guys entirely is not the only option. Reworking their deals could save significant money while still retaining their services.

You might be able to get Mebane and Bryant to sign home-friendly deals to some extent as Bryant has serious ties to the NW and Mebane has been here for a long time now (I am just speculating on Mebane).

It would be nice to retain Miller at a MUCH lesser number due to his blocking but would not be a huge loss in the receiving department due to the progress of Luke Wilson and Miller's seeming constant nagging injury issues.

Clemons and Avril would also be great to maintain with reworked deals. Don't know if we can count on Clemons for a long term deal though with his age being a factor at this point and Avril might not want to resign as he might be looking for a bigger FA payout the next year if he can put up numbers.

Thoughts??

 

[Logicallylethal]

Wow good stuff jake

Here's what I would want to do if I were GM


Players I would let go

- Kellen Davis
- Brandon Browner (Sorry BB, big time contributions to LOB 2011-2012 but you've become expendable)
- Chris Maragos (call me cheap but why is Maragos making close to 1 mil again?)

Players I prioritize to keep

- Michael Bennett (Love his versatility and ability to play DE and DT effectively in different packages)
- Walter Thurmond (I'm starting to think his suspension was a blessing. One we now get to see a showcase of Maxwell and two he might come at a cheaper price than he would have had he not been suspended)
- Golden Tate (Before this year I would have said he's expendable. But his value to us contributing in the punt game and his play making abilities at WR will make it hard for us not to bring him back. I say he will get about 5 mil a year)
- Steven Hauschka (One of the most reliable kickers in the league. Must keep)

Players I would like to bring back

- Clinton Mcdonald/Tony Mcdaniel (Bring back at the right price on short term deals)
- Tavaris Jackson (Good back up)
- O'Brian Schofield (Solid player, if he's willing to return at 600 k I'd take it)
- Anthony Mccoy (Love his speed. If he's healthy and back in full form, I'd like to pair him with Luke Willson in the passing game)

Players I would bring back but with some consideration

- Giacomini/Mcquistan (I would bring them back on a short term deal and then draft to replace them. I don't think they are that great to begin with considering their price tag)
- Michael Robinson (Really like the guy but will only bring him back if he gives us a good price)

Guys under contract that I would definitely cut/rework

- Sydney Rice (Cut unless he's willing to rework his deal closer to the 2.4 mil)
- Chris Clemons (If we resign Bennett I would like to rework Clemons down to 5-6 mil. He's going to be 33 and production hasn't been as great. Would still like him back though)
- Zach Miller/Red Bryant (Ideally, you would want to rework these deals but most likely we won't be able to get them to take much of a pay cut. I believe this year we aren't that desperate for cap room just yet so keeping them on salary for another year won't be too harmful to us cap wise)

Guys I would keep at their current salary

- Cliff Avril (Really like this guy. I believe he's one of the top guys in forcing fumbles since he's entered the league)
- Brandon Mebane (Outside of Sherman and Earl...I don't think there's anyone else having a better year than Mebane. Got to keep him)

 

[gowazzu02]

Great work. But can we table this for the off season. There are some hard decisions in he teams future. Id prefer not talking about that yet. Yes i know i can not click...l.

 

[ehwq]

Mind boggling all the scenarios that can happen.

If the Hawks decide to let Rice go, do you guys expect them to draft, sign or trade for a big guy that can stretch the field or would they already be set with Harvin(assuming healthy),Tate(assuming re-sign),Baldwin(asuuming re-sign),Kearse?

 

[SeattleCoug]

Wow good stuff jake

Players I prioritize to keep

- Michael Bennett (Love his versatility and ability to play DE and DT effectively in different packages)
- Walter Thurmond (I'm starting to think his suspension was a blessing. One we now get to see a showcase of Maxwell and two he might come at a cheaper price than he would have had he not been suspended)
- Golden Tate (Before this year I would have said he's expendable. But his value to us contributing in the punt game and his play making abilities at WR will make it hard for us not to bring him back. I say he will get about 5 mil a year)
- Steven Hauschka (One of the most reliable kickers in the league. Must keep)
QUOTE]

Agree those except for Thurmond. If the last few weeks proved anything its that we could still be an elite defense without him. We could roll with who we have plus Therald Simon next year. I'd like Thurmmond back but he is a luxury not a necessity. Although your right he likely hurt his own stock with that suspension.
Would also like to keep either McDaniel or McDonald

 

[Perpetual_Beast_Mode]

I hope that we keep our best UFA's of course, but also that we have enough cap room to sign a very good Guard. Our run blocking has been very underwhelming at times this year, especially the past three games.

 

[FirebreathingMonkey]

Mind boggling all the scenarios that can happen.

If the Hawks decide to let Rice go, do you guys expect them to draft, sign or trade for a big guy that can stretch the field or would they already be set with Harvin(assuming healthy),Tate(assuming re-sign),Baldwin(asuuming re-sign),Kearse?

You think Josh Gordon WR Browns is still going to be on the trade market. That is someone I could see us trading for mainly because he's young and I think under contract for two to three years. I don't think we will trade for any WR this off-season and most likely hit the free agents or though the draft.

 

[gohusk]

Great post, but too early. Still work to be done with the $'s were spending on the '13 cap.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

I hope that we keep our best UFA's of course, but also that we have enough cap room to sign a very good Guard. Our run blocking has been very underwhelming at times this year, especially the past three games.

I agree about the run blocking ( don't get me started about the pass blocking), but it's going to have to addressed via the draft and /or a new OL coach. Seahawks already have to many hard choices with the cap, without looking for another free agent guard.

 

[SeattleCoug]

Im hopefull that Bowie can step in for Breno and Bailey can step in for McQuistin. I dont really see a reason to bring either of them back unless its for very cheap. Guard is likely going to be addressed with one of the first couple of picks.
3 needs I would think are
G
WR
DLine- could lose Bennet and one of CC/Avirl and one of Mebane/Bryant

 

[seahawksfan234]

I think that something fans suffer from when it comes to their team is the team colored glasses that every fan seems to believe that every player would take a pay cut to play with a team just because the city and team is so wonderful. Let me ask you this, would you take a 50%+ paycut at your current job? Sure these guys are making millions, not the tens of thousands/hundreds of thousands you and I make but to them 50% is still half of their salary. In the case of guys like Brandon Mebane and Cliff Avril if they have to choose between millions of dollars and staying in Seattle I think they take the money.

The following guys I believe would be unlikely to take a pay cut because they would recieve similar (if not better deals) elsewhere:
Brandon Mebane: He would have leverage. He is currently being paid what he is worth. You could make the case he is getting paid a bit under his value. If he were to hit free agency this year, due to the Seahawks success I think he could actually get a deal that has a bigger cap hit than the one he is currently on. He is currently only 28 and still playing very well. I see no reason why he or his agent would allow a pay cut.
Cliff Avril: Also highly unlikely. He already took a very friendly deal to come to Seattle in the first place. He is having a good year and we would be doing him a favor by cutting him because he would probably land a multi-year deal somewhere else.

The "maybe" cut:
Zach Miller: If you can get him on a reduced deal then fine. But if you look at his contract that he originally signed with the Seahawks, it makes sense not to even rework his deal. His cap hit is $11m this year then it drops down to $7m next year and $6m the year after. The cap savings would be $5m and I may be suffering from sunk cost bias but I cringe at the idea of having dumped so much money into him and then cutting him when his cap hit is more team friendly. You could cut him but I just think it would be a waste of money.

Probably would cut:
Red Bryant: Once again, as nice as it would be to think Red will take a multi million dollar pay cut I don't think it will happen. I recall reading something that he was pretty close to going to the Patriots. He is having a good year this year after having been mediocre last year due to his ankle injury, so I think the Seahawks don't have much leverage over re-negotiating his contract. That being said, I would still strongly consider cutting him. He can be very good at times but he is a big guy and he does have injury concerns. It may make sense to part with him after a good season, if he is unwilling to take a paycut.

Definitely cut:
Chris Clemons: He has had some nice seasons for us but is not looking so hot as of right now. I think it makes more sense for the Seahawks to go with Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril over Clemons. Clem has a pretty big cap hit and is only getting older.
Sidney Rice: Massive cap hit and minimal production. I would not offer him much more than a 1 year deal near the league min. He could get more elsewhere, if so let him walk.

Say you cut Red Bryant, Chris Clemons and Sidney Rice.

Red Bryant saves you $5.5m, Chris Clemons saves you $7.5m and Sidney Rice saves you $7.3m. That gives you a grand total of $20.3m.

But wait... Percy Harvin had only a $4.9m cap hit this year. Next year that jumps to $13.4m. So take that $20.3 and subtract 8.5 and you have $11.8m.

I'm going to skip over the minor moves and get straight to why all of this stuff matters; Earl Thomas, Richard Sherman, Bryon Maxwell and Cliff Avril all hit free agency in 2015.

For now let us focus on Earl Thomas and Richard Sherman. Richard Sherman believes himself to be better than Darrelle Revis, which I agree with.

Revis received a contract of 6 years $96m or $16m per season. I have to imagine Sherman wants more than that as a sign of respect, but for hypothetical purposes let us say that is what he gets.

Using Chargers FS Eric Weddle as a benchmark, Weddle signed a 5 year $40m contract with the Chargers, which is pretty similar to the 5 year $41m contract that Dashon Goldson signed with the Buccs. I believe that Thomas is better than both of them and let us just say he signs a 5 year $45m contract with the Seahawks.

That places Earl Thomas at a $9m cap hit. Earl Thomas at a $16m cap hit.

Then there is the most important one, Russell Wilson. Truth be told I have absolutely no clue what the cap hit will look like on Wilson's contract.

Some other NFL QB cap hits to use as a comparison:
Josh Freeman: $9.8m
Jay Cutler: $10.4m
Sam Bradford: $12.6m
Drew Brees: $17.4m
Philip Rivers: $17.1m
Eli Manning: $20.9m
Peyton Manning: $17.5m
Matt Stafford: $17.8m
Tom Brady: $13.8m
Big Ben: $13.5m
Michael Vick: $12.2m
Aaron Rodgers: $12m
Tony Romo: $11.8m
Matt Schaub: $10.7m

A low estimate to what Wilson's cap hit would be is in the $12m range. IMO he could easily command Brees/Manning type money but for arguments sake let us say he takes $12m.

With Sherman at $16m, Earl Thomas at $9m and Wilson at $12m you have a grand total of $37m cap hit. Not easy to clear $37m in cap space. It would be more like a $32m addition since Thomas, Sherman and Wilson currently count for about $5m against the cap.

Even if you give low estimates on Thomas, Sherman and Wilson's contracts it will still be a lot of money you will need to make space for.

 

[seahawksfan234]

You think Josh Gordon WR Browns is still going to be on the trade market. That is someone I could see us trading for mainly because he's young and I think under contract for two to three years. I don't think we will trade for any WR this off-season and most likely hit the free agents or though the draft.

I would love to trade for Gordon primarily for those reasons. He is cheap and he is a top tier WR. Harvin's injuries are starting to concern me, plus he is not a prototypical flanker WR. He is typically a guy you move into the slot on 3 WR sets.

Only problem is Gordon would be a short term investment. It will be difficult enough retaining the guys we currently have, there is no way we could retain Gordon on top of all of that.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

I think that something fans suffer from when it comes to their team is the team colored glasses that every fan seems to believe that every player would take a pay cut to play with a team just because the city and team is so wonderful. Let me ask you this, would you take a 50%+ paycut at your current job? Sure these guys are making millions, not the tens of thousands/hundreds of thousands you and I make but to them 50% is still half of their salary. In the case of guys like Brandon Mebane and Cliff Avril if they have to choose between millions of dollars and staying in Seattle I think they take the money.

The following guys I believe would be unlikely to take a pay cut because they would recieve similar (if not better deals) elsewhere:
Brandon Mebane: He would have leverage. He is currently being paid what he is worth. You could make the case he is getting paid a bit under his value. If he were to hit free agency this year, due to the Seahawks success I think he could actually get a deal that has a bigger cap hit than the one he is currently on. He is currently only 28 and still playing very well. I see no reason why he or his agent would allow a pay cut.
Cliff Avril: Also highly unlikely. He already took a very friendly deal to come to Seattle in the first place. He is having a good year and we would be doing him a favor by cutting him because he would probably land a multi-year deal somewhere else.

The "maybe" cut:
Zach Miller: If you can get him on a reduced deal then fine. But if you look at his contract that he originally signed with the Seahawks, it makes sense not to even rework his deal. His cap hit is $11m this year then it drops down to $7m next year and $6m the year after. The cap savings would be $5m and I may be suffering from sunk cost bias but I cringe at the idea of having dumped so much money into him and then cutting him when his cap hit is more team friendly. You could cut him but I just think it would be a waste of money.

Probably would cut:
Red Bryant: Once again, as nice as it would be to think Red will take a multi million dollar pay cut I don't think it will happen. I recall reading something that he was pretty close to going to the Patriots. He is having a good year this year after having been mediocre last year due to his ankle injury, so I think the Seahawks don't have much leverage over re-negotiating his contract. That being said, I would still strongly consider cutting him. He can be very good at times but he is a big guy and he does have injury concerns. It may make sense to part with him after a good season, if he is unwilling to take a paycut.

Definitely cut:
Chris Clemons: He has had some nice seasons for us but is not looking so hot as of right now. I think it makes more sense for the Seahawks to go with Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril over Clemons. Clem has a pretty big cap hit and is only getting older.
Sidney Rice: Massive cap hit and minimal production. I would not offer him much more than a 1 year deal near the league min. He could get more elsewhere, if so let him walk.

Say you cut Red Bryant, Chris Clemons and Sidney Rice.

Red Bryant saves you $5.5m, Chris Clemons saves you $7.5m and Sidney Rice saves you $7.3m. That gives you a grand total of $20.3m.

But wait... Percy Harvin had only a $4.9m cap hit this year. Next year that jumps to $13.4m. So take that $20.3 and subtract 8.5 and you have $11.8m.

I'm going to skip over the minor moves and get straight to why all of this stuff matters; Earl Thomas, Richard Sherman, Bryon Maxwell and Cliff Avril all hit free agency in 2015.

For now let us focus on Earl Thomas and Richard Sherman. Richard Sherman believes himself to be better than Darrelle Revis, which I agree with.

Revis received a contract of 6 years $96m or $16m per season. I have to imagine Sherman wants more than that as a sign of respect, but for hypothetical purposes let us say that is what he gets.

Using Chargers FS Eric Weddle as a benchmark, Weddle signed a 5 year $40m contract with the Chargers, which is pretty similar to the 5 year $41m contract that Dashon Goldson signed with the Buccs. I believe that Thomas is better than both of them and let us just say he signs a 5 year $45m contract with the Seahawks.

That places Earl Thomas at a $9m cap hit. Earl Thomas at a $16m cap hit.

Then there is the most important one, Russell Wilson. Truth be told I have absolutely no clue what the cap hit will look like on Wilson's contract.

Some other NFL QB cap hits to use as a comparison:
Josh Freeman: $9.8m
Jay Cutler: $10.4m
Sam Bradford: $12.6m
Drew Brees: $17.4m
Philip Rivers: $17.1m
Eli Manning: $20.9m
Peyton Manning: $17.5m
Matt Stafford: $17.8m
Tom Brady: $13.8m
Big Ben: $13.5m
Michael Vick: $12.2m
Aaron Rodgers: $12m
Tony Romo: $11.8m
Matt Schaub: $10.7m

A low estimate to what Wilson's cap hit would be is in the $12m range. IMO he could easily command Brees/Manning type money but for arguments sake let us say he takes $12m.

With Sherman at $16m, Earl Thomas at $9m and Wilson at $12m you have a grand total of $37m cap hit. Not easy to clear $37m in cap space. It would be more like a $32m addition since Thomas, Sherman and Wilson currently count for about $5m against the cap.

Even if you give low estimates on Thomas, Sherman and Wilson's contracts it will still be a lot of money you will need to make space for.

Wilson is not part of the cap problem in 2014, he has to wait another year .

These players if cut would save:

Red Bryant 8,500,000
Clemons 7,500,000
Rice 7,300,000
Avril 7,000,000
Lynch 7,000,000
Mebane 5,700,000
Miller 5,000,000

Out this group I can see the first three getting cut, plus Miller because he's not part of our passing attack per say and for $5,000,000 you could find a TE to block for a lot less. If Clemons agrees to a more team friendly contract, then he stays then Avril goes. The Seahawks are not going to be able to resign Avril, so even though he's younger, his future as a Seahawk is going to short IMO. We seem to mave different figures on Red and I could be wrong. Got my #s from here.

Seattle Seahawks Salary Cap - 2014 Breakdown

No dead money next year for Red, so if he's cut, he should save $8,500,000



Also if you look at the Seahawks cap figure for players under contract next year, the numbers show them as breaking even, this includes Harvins $13,400,000 cap hit and a $5,675,000 cap hit for Thomas. So if you tear up Thomas contract and pay him $9,000,000, you only have to make up $3,500,000.
Sherman is the one that is scary, because his cap hit next year is only 690,606. So if you tear his contract up and pay him $16,000,000 that is a heck of a hit to the cap and there are other players that have to be resigned.
Tate for one, maybe Micheal Bennett, Steve Hauschka, and Walter Thurmond ( he should come much cheaper now). and the usual backups that don't make a lot, but when added together, amount to enough to worry about

Going to an interesting off season. All the more reason to enjoy the journey this season. Take it in, savor it and lets cross the off season....in the off season!

 

[SeattleCoug]

Bryant-50/50 on him but if he's kept Mebane is probably gone
Clemons- I think he's gone, I like him but can only see diminishing production at this point
Rice- We all agree he's gone, his money can go towards Tate
Avril- Under the assumption Clem is cut I think he is kept, 1 year remaining
Lynch-Probably a year away from dealing with his situation, dont see it being addressed till after next year
Mebane-If Red is kept and one of McD's is resigned, I could see a cut here if Red is gone tho he will be kept
Miller- Interesting here because I have been impressed by Willson, depends on if they want to draft another TE or bring McCoy back

Obviously the D Line has the most cap hits which is why we need to lose at least two of those guys in the above list.

 

[jakedog56]

Time to bump this one back into play.

 

[jakedog56]

OK. Now I have time to address this again:

Some notes:
I do think that Red Bryant will be back under a reworked deal. Though his name is not called so often by the announcers he is essential to the defensive scheme. Plus he has strong ties to the area being married to Jacob Green's daughter. The fact that he is not a DT (played mediocre at when he was at that position) makes it hard for him to fit on another team also is a positive for the Seahawks.
I think that you could get him to rework his deal to save $2-3 million a year with a 4 year or so contract
However, he also has strong ties to Texas, so I could see him being cut if he will not rework and heading in that direction.

In the other thread, someone stated that cutting Cliff Avril would save only $2 million. I have his base salary at $7 million with a $2.25 million signing bonus. So that would be $7 million in savings and not $2 million. However, he could also be reworked into a long term deal to save money now. My issue is that I would rather work a way to keep Bennett over Avril if I had to choose.

There is already a bunch of speculation that Micheal Bennett will go play with his brother in Chicago. This is one guy I REALLY want back next year but he might have played himself out of price range(?) with a great season. I am not sure how much he is going to demand on the open market.

While I would like to keep Golden Tate, I think that realistically he is an odd-man out due to cap restraints. Of course it also appears to be a given that Sidney Rice is gone. If we went into next year with Kearse, Harvin, Baldwin, draft pick / low priced FA it wouldn't be a killer.

I also that that Zack Miller might end up being a realistic cut at this point. His role dwindled as the year went on and Wilson showed better receiving ability. Miller is a better blocker but we can find a blocking TE on the cheap somewhere.

While we know Brandon Browner is gone, I also could easily see Walter Thurmond being let go unless he signs for a cheap one year deal because of his issues. Much like WR, it would not be a killer to go into next year with Sherman, Maxwell, Lane, draft pick / low priced FA at CB.

I think that it is important to resign Tavaris Jackson. We should be able to get him for about the same amount. He could tide us over if Wilson has an injury (god forbid!).

I think that Chris Clemons is gone. Unless he can't get a deal elsewhere for decent money, I would want to offer him more that $3.5 million due to our cap constraints.

Not sure about Tony McDaniel and Clinton McDonald. Both of these guys will want raises to stay but I have no idea for how much.

And of course Steven Hauschka will also get a raise but I am again unsure of how much. It would appear to be essential to keep him.

The rest of the remaining FAs are fairly low priced. I don't want to speculate too much on the "lower" roster turnover as it is hard enough to speculate on the big names.

 

[Destroydacre]

Great info here and I'll give my thoughts on who I'd like to see cut/kept/restructured later, but for now...

Some other NFL QB cap hits to use as a comparison:
Eli Manning: $20.9m

 

[RegentDenali]

 

[blstoker]

In the other thread, someone stated that cutting Cliff Avril would save only $2 million. I have his base salary at $7 million with a $2.25 million signing bonus. So that would be $7 million in savings and not $2 million. However, he could also be reworked into a long term deal to save money now. My issue is that I would rather work a way to keep Bennett over Avril if I had to choose.

Cliff Avril has a weird clause written into his contract where $5 million of his $7 million base salary became guaranteed the day after the Super Bowl. That's why he would only save the Hawks $2 million.

Cliff Avril Contracts, Salaries, Cap Hits, & Transactions

Check the second bullet point under the annual salary breakdown