MLB Daily Thread: 9/18/2017: Price the long reliever, Astros clinch, Bellinger sets record

[PolarVortex]

BA is also flawed in that it treats a HR the same as a single.

That's true, but the value a single has over a walk is that, when first base is open, it can advance a baserunner on second or third. I think the stat geeks need to find a way to put individual value on a walk rather give it equal value within OPS. With all the stat geeks charting new territory with baseball stats, seems like someone could come up with a computer program which could do this.

 

[DirtDirtDirt]

Snoogins insisted that Porcello has only pitched on bad game this season. I think you should cross over to the dark side and come smack him around a little bit.

Lol

I'm coming

 

[DirtDirtDirt]

people are overlooking matt olson in oakland.

hes doing nearly the same thing.

Maybe they are all pretty good

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

the guy who leads the MLB in IP and K's?

his last 4 starts hes:

2-1 (teams 3-1)
2.74 ERA
23 IP
34 K's

again, high BaBip...

.340 mover that run.

i'd skip a start for him maybe that's about it.

That's a damn rosy picture you paint there, Rock.

Someone more objective might note that three of those last four starts were against the Blue Jays and Rays, literally the two weakest offenses in the AL and even the Rays got to him on Friday.

In nine starts since July, he's allowed 4 or more ER in four of them, carrying an ERA of 4.25. He only notched five quality starts over that period and three of those were against the aforementioned Blue Jays and Rays.

In those nine starts, he's given up 9 HRs. He'd only given up 11 in the previous 21.

 

[DirtDirtDirt]

That's a damn rosy picture you paint there, Rock.

Someone more objective might note that three of those last four starts were against the Blue Jays and Rays, literally the two weakest offenses in the AL and even the Rays got to him on Friday.

In nine starts since July, he's allowed 4 or more ER in four of them, carrying an ERA of 4.25. He only notched five quality starts over that period and three of those were against the aforementioned Blue Jays and Rays.

In those nine starts, he's given up 9 HRs. He'd only given up 11 in the previous 21.

Bingo, and Severino continues to come up big in the biggest games, in the heat of a pennant race

This is not new to Sale...He weighs 18lbs, throws 105, and always wears down in September

 

[PolarVortex]

Maybe they are all pretty good

Homeruns and strikeouts are ruining baseball. The way it is evolving is sad. Lazy ass all or nothing hitters that will not hit against the shift because they would rather try to hit the ball over the fence even though the odds of success are dramatically less.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Severino should pass him now in the CY Young race

That's a little bold.

Best ERA in baseball since the ASB

FanGraphs has him 3rd, behind Kluber and Verlander.

If Judge isn't MVP because of his play after the break , Seve should get consideration

If by "consideration" you mean, "we've considered it, and Severino should not win the 2017 AL MVP," then I totally agree with you.

 

[DirtDirtDirt]

Homeruns and strikeouts are ruining baseball. The way it is evolving is sad. Lazy ass all or nothing hitters that will not hit against the shift because they would rather try to hit the ball over the fence even though the odds of success are dramatically less.

Totally agree, balls in play still create the best baseball quality.....The Yankees win or lose on the Home Run ball, but nothing has frustrated me more than the guy that doesnt even try to cut down on his swing and play situational baseball, move a runner over, drive a runner in when the infield is playing back, etc.....

 

[DirtDirtDirt]

That's a little bold.



FanGraphs has him 3rd, behind Kluber and Verlander.



If by "consideration" you mean, "we've considered it, and Severino should not win the 2017 AL MVP," then I totally agree with you.

Not MVP ,CY Young consideration, and I still think Kluber should be a runaway winner

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Than no one

NO ONE

should be close to Judge in the MVP race

Measured by WAR (which I'm admittedly not a big fan of), Simmons and Trout are close, and Altuve is a fair bit ahead of Judge.

 

[Rock Strongo]

That's a damn rosy picture you paint there, Rock.

Someone more objective might note that three of those last four starts were against the Blue Jays and Rays, literally the two weakest offenses in the AL and even the Rays got to him on Friday.

In nine starts since July, he's allowed 4 or more ER in four of them, carrying an ERA of 4.25. He only notched five quality starts over that period and three of those were against the aforementioned Blue Jays and Rays.

In those nine starts, he's given up 9 HRs. He'd only given up 11 in the previous 21.

all true, none denied.

but metrics are metrics.

like klubers 3.07 road ERA and .927 WHIP vs sales 2.90 .983 WHIP

sales home/road splits are nearly identical. klubers...not so much. hes the dustin pedroia of pitching. everything of his on the roads goes way up (still great) but wayyy up and K's go way down.

 

[DirtDirtDirt]

Measured by WAR (which I'm admittedly not a big fan of), Simmons and Trout are close, and Altuve is a fair bit ahead of Judge.

I dont think for one second Judge should win the MVP, however, if he spread his numbers out over a full season, instead of one out of this world half, and another really bad half, he would be the clear winner of the award IMO, especially in this age of everyone loving the power numbers


I just was responding to Soxfan on the Sale/Severino comparison....Their ERA's are almost identical, one guy is limping through a pennant race, the other is like a hot knife through butter

 

[packerzrule]

hi

not yet as I am still at work

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

It's close, which why Sale will win. It's the same reason why Kluber won in 2014 when Felix had better overall stats. We've already covered this. If they both had already won a CY, then it would be Kluber. But Sale has not won a CY so they will give it to Sale.

Bless your heart.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

In 2014 the writers could point to the win total of Kluber, they won't be able to do that this year.

And Ks. And performance down the stretch. Kluber was nasty August/September that year. Felix had some clunkers in those months - nothing as bad as Sale's had this year, though.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Not MVP ,CY Young consideration, and I still think Kluber should be a runaway winner

Gotcha. I agree then. Severino will get CY votes.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

all true, none denied.

but metrics are metrics.

like klubers 3.07 road ERA and .927 WHIP vs sales 2.90 .983 WHIP

sales home/road splits are nearly identical. klubers...not so much. hes the dustin pedroia of pitching. everything of his on the roads goes way up (still great) but wayyy up and K's go way down.

I thought we were discussing how it appears that Sale's gassed, not Kluber's home/road splits.

You are correct though, that spit favors home games for him. Still, he's got a 1.52 ERA since July and half of those starts were away. He was also nasty in his playoff road starts last year, so to me, that split isn't nearly as concerning as it would be if he had a 4.25 ERA over the last two months.

 

[Rock Strongo]

I thought we were discussing how it appears that Sale's gassed, not Kluber's home/road splits.

You are correct though, that spit favors home games for him. Still, he's got a 1.52 ERA since July and half of those starts were away. He was also nasty in his playoff road starts last year, so to me, that split isn't nearly as concerning as it would be if he had a 4.25 ERA over the last two months.

sales been better on the road, over the year, than kluber...and his splits show that. kluber has a home field advantage sale doesnt have.

 

[Rock Strongo]

oh and @SlinkyRedfoot

technically, sales ERA over "the past 2 months" is 3.05

12 starts

9/15 back to 7/15

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

sales been better on the road, over the year, than kluber...and his splits show that. kluber has a home field advantage sale doesnt have.

Meh.

I think it's just static. Granted, for his career, Kluber's home/road splits favor home, but he was better away last year and it was more or less identical his CY year.

I'm not worried about that split.