Will the Bears defense decline under Pagano?

[Lake Shore Drive]

Maybe, but then again maybe not, at least according to this article.

Don’t assume the 2019 Bears defense will decline with Chuck Pagano calling plays

 

[richig07]

It's always hard to repeat a season where you were the #1 scoring defense. However, if we stay healthy - we have a good shot. Losing Vic does not worry me like it does others. There's too much talent here and I like the Pagano hire.

I get the feeling that the health fortune we had in 2018 will not be repeated. However, we seem to have some solid depth as well. So... overall... I'm pretty confident with where we are at.

Our schedule (on paper) looks tougher, though. Maybe that plays a factor and knocks the numbers down a bit. Regardless, though... I am very excited for next season.

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

It's always hard to repeat a season where you were the #1 scoring defense. However, if we stay healthy - we have a good shot. Losing Vic does not worry me like it does others. There's too much talent here and I like the Pagano hire.

I get the feeling that the health fortune we had in 2018 will not be repeated. However, we seem to have some solid depth as well. So... overall... I'm pretty confident with where we are at.

Our schedule (on paper) looks tougher, though. Maybe that plays a factor and knocks the numbers down a bit. Regardless, though... I am very excited for next season.

Yeah, agreed. I'm much less concerned with Pagano adequately replacing Fangio than I am with injuries. Let's face it, no one wants to see their DC, who helped guide his team to becoming the league's top defense, go to another team. But it's not the DC out on the field, it's the players. If we have the same crew out there this season, they will remain one of the NFL's top units, if not THE top.

 

[rtfgbfan]

Pagano is a proven veteran defensive coach taking over a young talented group losing basically no one. They will be just as good next year if not better.

 

[rtfgbfan]

Yeah, agreed. I'm much less concerned with Pagano adequately replacing Fangio than I am with injuries. Let's face it, no one wants to see their DC, who helped guide his team to becoming the league's top defense, go to another team. But it's not the DC out on the field, it's the players. If we have the same crew out there this season, they will remain one of the NFL's top units, if not THE top.

Agreed, but this can be said about any unit, any team, any year.

 

[Nelly]

I don't see how you don't have some regression. The bar is set so high and it will be an adjustment having a different DC. Fangio has had 4 years to put the wheels in motion here, now there's a change. There's no way that won't affect them in some way, plus we figure to lose Adrian Amos as safety.

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

I don't see how you don't have some regression. The bar is set so high and it will be an adjustment having a different DC. Fangio has had 4 years to put the wheels in motion here, now there's a change. There's no way that won't affect them in some way, plus we figure to lose Adrian Amos as safety.

It does stand to reason that the odds of some regression resulting from an almost entirely new defensive staff, along with the loss of any players are pretty strong. However, it also stands to reason that our offense, now that it has a year of playing together in a whole new system under its belt, will be improved to the point of offsetting the possible decline in the D.

 

[NCChiFan]

Barring injury, I don't see this D slipping under top 5. Particularly if the Offense gets a bit better next season.

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

Barring injury, I don't see this D slipping under top 5. Particularly if the Offense gets a bit better next season.

That remains my thought as well. A bit of regression? Sure, that's understandable, but not some type of night & day regression. Again, barring a rash of some big injuries, I see no reason why this defense won't be one of the top units in the league once more.

 

[averagejoe]

The schedule is a real good point.

You have figure the offense takes another step forward. If the offense has far less 3-and-outs, and sustains some drives (time of possession), this helps the defense stay fresh as well.

 

[beardown07]

The schedule is a real good point.

You have figure the offense takes another step forward. If the offense has far less 3-and-outs, and sustains some drives (time of possession), this helps the defense stay fresh as well.

The offense was 2nd in Time of Possession this year.


What they need to do is fucking score.. TDs


edit: sorry that was average Time of Possession...my bad


finding mixed answers for that...some sites have em near the top, while others I've seen at like 26th.


I'll hafta look deeper later

 

[averagejoe]

The offense was 2nd in Time of Possession this year.


What they need to do is fucking score.. TDs


edit: sorry that was average Time of Possession...my bad


finding mixed answers for that...some sites have em near the top, while others I've seen at like 26th.


I'll hafta look deeper later

I'm texting off the cuff here.
Curious as to what you find.
We watched the games.
Defense gave them plenty of chances with field position.
But I remember plenty of 3-and-outs.
Wonder if there is a stat for that?

 

[beardown07]

I'm texting off the cuff here.
Curious as to what you find.
We watched the games.
Defense gave them plenty of chances with field position.
But I remember plenty of 3-and-outs.
Wonder if there is a stat for that?

this sounds like a job for @richig07

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

this sounds like a job for @richig07

The stat king.

 

[averagejoe]

@beardown07
Seems the Bears time of possession was pretty good. I redact that issue.

Found this comprehensive list of offensive stats courtesy of Football Outsiders:
2018 OFFENSIVE DRIVE STATS | Football Outsiders

Their chart shows where the Bears offense can make some improvements (to help the defense rest).
Here's some highlights of their chart:

• Bears had 173 offensive drives in 2018. NFL avg was 174.
• Bears averaged 33.08 yards per offensive drive which ranked them 16th.
• They averaged 2.17 points per drive which ranked them (tied) for 11th.
• According to the Outsiders, they calculated a drive success rate of .720 which ranked the Bears 14th.
• Of the 173 drives, the drives that ended in a TD ranked the Bears 12th.
• The drives that ended in field goals ranked the Bears 19th. No surprise here.
• Drives ending in punts ranked them 8th.
• Drives that went 3-and-out ranked the Bears 9th.