Why the Offense Will (or Won't) be Improved in 2016

[iknowftbll]

I don't think anyone will look back at the Broncos in 2015 and argue against the narrative they relied on defense to win it all. What always comes next is the narrative that "teams that win with defense only win one at a time." What follows is some pre-canned references to the 2000 Ravens, 2002 Bucs, etc... I consider this narrative a bit shoddy considering few teams win multiple SBs in short succession, with only 2 teams repeating in the past 20 years. You can look at teams like the Steelers who won 2 (2005 and 2008) and Giants (2007 and 2011) but look at the time between wins: plenty of time to retool a team so I don't consider them valid examples. The truth is few teams, be they defense or offense oriented or solid on both sides can repeat as SB Champs. So when people say the Broncos can't rely on defense again to repeat, it's a bit of a non-starter.

Especially since the Broncos defense looks to be very good once again, and the team will be adding the additional dynamic of an improved offense. But how can we be so sure the offense will be improved? Is that just Broncos homerism on our part as fans?

I'm not even going to get into the arguments for why the defense will struggle. Incredibly there are quite a few out there and suffice to say I reject most of them as simplistic analysis: everyone piling on and wanting to be the one who foresaw the decline of a champion. But I think there are a lot of legitimate arguments for why the offense may be flat once again. Let's take a look at some of the arguments we've seen for why the Broncos offense will struggle this year and see if we can give them a realistic rebuttal.

Arguments why the Broncos offense will struggle:

The Quarterback situation. If you step back and try to see the forest though the trees it really is easy to see why the pundits would say this will be an issue for the Broncos. The team just watched all-time great Peyton Manning retire from the game while the only other QB on the roster with some experience followed the money to Houston. The Broncos responded by trading for unheralded QB Mark Sanchez, drafting Paxton Lynch, and giving fair reps to 2nd year 7th round draft pick Siemian. While plenty of rookies have come in and led their teams to quality seasons starting a rookie is almost a concession on repeating. Even if he has a good year. Siemian is too great an unknown to hype up and Sanchez is turnover prone and essentially on his last shot at being an NFL starting QB. While we know the QB situation in Denver wasn't great in 2015, it really is fair to say the Broncos have question marks here.

The Offensive Line. The line was a hot mess last year, but it was highly overhauled with last minute additions like Mathis, along with injuries like Clady and Ty Sambrailo (it's hard to actually quantify the effect this had given he was a rookie. It certainly didn't help the team though). The overhaul coincided with the transition to the ZBS, a scheme that relies heavily on trusting the guy next to you and continuity. It's not hard to see why the unit struggled last season with so many new faces and injuries. And don't look now, but in 2016 it'll be more of the same: lots of turnover on the unit, with Mathis gone, and new faces in Okung and Stephenson (not to mention the injury and performance questions regarding these additions) as well as guys like Sambrailo returning mean it really is fair to question the unit will improve much in 2016.

Tight Ends. Incredibly there have been pundits and rival fans who site the departure of Vern Davis as a key loss to the offense. That's just idiotic. But what is fair is to site the loss of Owen Daniels. It's not that Owen Daniels lit up the league, it's that he was pretty much all the Broncos had at the position. He's gone now and the players the team has waiting in the wings aren't going to scare anyone. Virgil Green is a beast at blocking and his receiving game is on the brink of a breakout. But his production, as a consequence of scheme, isn't the stuff legends are made up. It's easy to see why analysts would overlook Green. Add in the injured rookie (now 2nd year player) Heuerman and even he is an unknown. When you look at the position group it really is fair to say there are more questions than answers here.

The running game. The Broncos 2015 running game was piecemeal as the team transitioned to the ZBS, as well as running a hybrid offense between Kubiak's philosophy and Manning's skill set. The ground game was perhaps the biggest casualty from all of this. Hillman had a solid enough year but he often would be stuffed for a loss or no gain. Anderson wasn't in game shape early. While the team managed some impressive games along the way, the aggregate was pedestrian. Looking to 2016, the shakeup on the line (again) may do a lot to undermine the effectiveness of the running game. That combined with the stable of RBs still lacks someone who has PROVEN he can be a season-long starting option make this a fair critique of the offense going forward.

Now let's hear some rebuttals.

Wide Receivers. I'm going to start with the one position group nobody can criticize. Sure, we can knock DT's "off" year in which he still had 100+ catches and over 1300 yards. Yes he had a lot of drops, and his head wasn't in the game at times. But one thing DT doesn't get credit for is he is a lethal downfield blocker and in games his receiving numbers were down you can still see him on the edge of a play laying someone out. Besides, does anyone think he won't rebound? I will say this: The only reason DT isn't the most dominant receiver in the NFL is because he has not yet decided to be the most dominant receiver in the NFL. If he played more physical there would be no defending him with his size and speed. I think it's reasonable to expect some degree of that going forward because I think Kubiak's offense is going to by nature be a more physical and punishing offense. And that's just DT. Let's not forget Sanders, who is arguably the most dynamic #2 in league. And the further down the depth chart we go the more we realize one thing: if the Broncos had any more depth at WR, Congress would probably try to pass legislation to limit it. This is without question the strength of the offense in 2016, and it should give fans reason to expect improvement.

The Quarterback situation. When we look at the arguments above it's easy to forget one thing: from the standpoint of production the Broncos QBs in 2015 were, simply put, replaceable. Remove the names or the fact that one guy had been groomed in the organization for a few years. From a production standpoint the bar is really low. To assume that Sanchez or Siemian or Lynch or some combination of the three cannot do better than 19-23 TDs-INTs is hopeful at best. I initially assumed Sanchez was brought in as depth, then considered the "trade bait" angle, then realized he may be a good fit for the Kubiak offense and have long assumed Sanchez would be the starter. I don't think it's a stretch to believe he can throw for 3500 yards, and maybe a 24-14 or so TD-INT. From a pure production standpoint that is a vast improvement over 2015 numbers. Keep this in mind: In the Kubiak offense it may not be about having the best QB, it's about having the RIGHT QB.

The Offensive Line. Like the QB, this is more a matter of having the right players more so than the best players. With that said, truthfully it takes an extremely optimistic outlook to not foresee potential issues of so much turnover on the line a second straight year. I think they will be decent, but this unit will likely be the biggest weakness on offense. A more mobile QB like Sanchez really can go a long way toward helping with this, but that's a double edged sword. A mobile QB means he is not always getting the ball out fast, which is likely the best remedy for a weak O-line. If the enemy is able to contain the QB, it is going to create problems. With the potential weaknesses on offense, it is going to take the next two groups really stepping up if the offense as a whole is going to improve.

Tight ends. The two-tight end set is a crucial ingredient to the Kubiak offense, and from a blocking standpoint Virgil Green is a huge asset. The unknown here is can he be a "go-to" as a receiving option. Another wild card is 2nd year option Heuerman, who the team was very excited about in 2015 before losing him to injury. We have no clue what to expect from him, or any of the other TEs on the roster. A proof source within the system doesn't really exist, but the potential is there. But in the interest of objectivity, it is legitimately fair to temper one's optimism with this group. I think the Green-Heuerman combo is going to be solid. But that's really just a guess.

The ground game. CJ Anderson returns in better shape than ever, along with Ronnie Hillman, the team's leading rusher from 2015. Those of you who have been around for a while know I'm not a big fan of Hillman but I am actually satisfied the team brought him back for 2016. He adds depth and is a known quantity on an offense full of questions. Anderson should be his reliable self, and maybe even an upgrade over the 2015 version of himself. Adding the rookie Booker bolsters the position group but perhaps the most exciting development I can think of is the addition of the fullback Janovich. This tells me the Broncos are looking to smash people in the F***ing face on offense this year. How many drives ended on a failure to convert 3rd and short? How many FGs did the Broncos kick having failed to punch it in on a short 3rd and goal? I think it is a fair expectation to expect this unit to be a critical cog in the improvement of the offense as a whole.

So there's my short assessment, giving some arguments for why the team will struggle and some rebuttals. I don't think it's an overly optimistic outlook, and where it is, I've acknowledged it as such. You combine a reasonable expectation for improvement on offense with the expectations the defense will be dominant again and it is easy to see why we are all so excited about 2016. It's hard to repeat as Super Bowl champs. But in 2016 only one team has a chance to do it, and that team is the Denver Broncos. And looking at this off season, it should not be a forgone conclusion they won't repeat.

I welcome your thoughts.

 

[cdumler7]

Great Read as always...

I have said this many times that honestly I'm not sure whoever our starter at QB is quite as big of a deal as so many are making it to be. 2 reasons...

1) We have shown very easily how committed we are to running the football. We sign 2 tackles coming from teams that finished top-10 rushing this past season and both are from ZBS teams. So the transition isn't this huge change for them and they know what a good rushing unit can look like. Now while we did lose some guys on the interior in Mathis and Vasquez I would say they were not as effective as their name suggests. Mathis was hurt most of the year and had times of getting blown up. Vasquez fell into that same boat and just was not a great fit in the ZBS that Kubiak likes to run. So now enter 3 guys on the interior that this will be year #2 in Kubiak's scheme. I've listened to Schlereth enough to know that it takes at least one full season to understand all the parts of how to make this scheme run. So I am excited to see these 3 guys in Sambrailo, Garcia, and Paradis really grow together on the interior and see what they can do.

Adding to that we obviously invested in the RB position with signing Anderson and Hillman once again who now have a better idea of how the scheme works and where the holes will be plus then using a draft pick that I and many others think could be a special player in Booker. Honestly the RB position could quickly begin to rival the WR position for depth this year of guys that can step in and perform well. Then as you pointed out the signing of Janovich to really get back to our old school ways.

Honestly with today's NFL teams gearing most of their defensive line up to stopping the pass I think going against the grain a bit and being a run team could be huge for the Broncos to dominate on the offensive side of the ball since a lot of the starters on defense will not be geared towards stopping a team that runs so often.

One final point on the run game is that with our home field advantage being the altitude nothing wears a team out more than just working your way down the field with the run game. I could see having the run game become the focal point of the offense really make life hell on a defense especially if they don't have great depth.

2) Kubiak has proven time and time again that he can take a QB that is average or below average and have them really have a career year when he joins the staff. Now obviously Manning did not see that but well he couldn't throw it over 15 yards with any kind of accuracy so not going to really count that one. Going back though

Flacco year before Kubiak had a QB rating of 73.1 with 19 touchdowns to 22 interceptions. Kubiak joins the staff and he throws for 27 touchdowns (still career best) with only 12 interceptions and a QB Rating of 91.0 So almost a 20 point increase in QB rating with Kubiak on the staff.

Matt Schaub is a tough one to judge since he wasn't a starter before joining the Texans. Anyway he went from back up in Atlanta to Pro Bowl QB with the Texans.


Jake Plummer went from AZ where he had a QB rating of 65.7 his last year to 91.2 with the Denver Broncos his first year with Kubiak. So we are talking bottom of the league QB play the year before (30th) in QB rating to 5th the next year with the Broncos.

We could keep going but for the most part most QB's under Kubiak have seen a very nice increase in ability. Some have gone from the back up or bottom of the league production to top-10 in the very first year.

So while I don't expect Sanchez or any of the other 2 to come in and be world beaters I also think people discounting that they could be say an average QB are not looking at Kubiak's history and the fact that because we will have the run game be a focal point the passing game should have a few more opportunities for one on one match ups making the reads much easier for the QB.

 

[CEH]

Oline will be better not doubt
WRs will be better I assume DT will be back to his old self.
TE is a big question mark based on experience or lack there of .
RB could be better is CJ does not tap out after every 3 snaps like last year. I wasn't till late in the year that he ran like his old self.

Which brings us to the QB position.
It's a guess right now but Sanchez has shown not to be a good decision maker so the offense could be similar to last year without much risk in the passing game trying not to put the defense in bad field position. I'm not sure who is #1 right now Sanchez or Trevor. Trevor has the advantage of knowing the offense.

We don't have a Peyton Manning to save us this year like in the SD game last year. Denver doesn't sniff the Super Bowl if they lose that SD game and goes from #1 to #5. Manning raised the level of every player that game.

The QB battle has started. TC will be very interesting this year.

 

[xBxtxDx]

The Offensive Line. Like the QB, this is more a matter of having the right players more so than the best players. With that said, truthfully it takes an extremely optimistic outlook to not foresee potential issues of so much turnover on the line a second straight year. I think they will be decent, but this unit will likely be the biggest weakness on offense. A more mobile QB like Sanchez really can go a long way toward helping with this, but that's a double edged sword. A mobile QB means he is not always getting the ball out fast, which is likely the best remedy for a weak O-line. If the enemy is able to contain the QB, it is going to create problems. With the potential weaknesses on offense, it is going to take the next two groups really stepping up if the offense as a whole is going to improve.

That is the thing though, Kubiak has shown in the past that he can take the pressure off of a QB to be the offense as long as that QB can:

1. Operate under center.

2. Be able to sell the play action pass.

3. Be able to determine the right moments to hand off the ball or to pass in above said play action pass situations.

There are a lot of nuances to Kubiak's offense, but most hinges off of the 3 above. That is the reason that it is thought to be so simple and QB friendly. Heck, Kubiak can and will at times make it simpler and take out 3 and make that call himself.

Look at this way, Kubiak made Schuab, Rosenfels, and Yates all look like they were semi-competent options when they were anything but that.

In fact, his style of offense keys more on the offensive line play and more specifically the center. Paradis' growth in this offense and his ability to command his linemates is what will make or break this offense this year. If Paradis can pull the line together, I am less concerned about who the QB is and we will be just fine this year and damn tough to beat.

 

[iknowftbll]

CD, you make some really good points, some of which I've discussed with you on other threads. These two I've not:

Honestly with today's NFL teams gearing most of their defensive line up to stopping the pass I think going against the grain a bit and being a run team could be huge for the Broncos to dominate on the offensive side of the ball since a lot of the starters on defense will not be geared towards stopping a team that runs so often.

There may be something to this. The league has become pass first, no doubt. With so many QBs having 4,000+ yard seasons these days and the 5,000+ yard season no longer a mythical statistical anomaly it's hard to argue otherwise. Hell, the New England Patriots made it all the way to the AFCCG having all but abandoned the run. The rules are all set to favor the pass game because the league knows passing sells tickets and TV ratings. Naturally defenses are going to adjust. And while defenses can be fast to adjust, trends of this magnitude don't evolve in one or two seasons. It does appear rushing specialists and smaller, faster D-linemen is an emerging trend. Getting after the QB is a growing priority to defenses. And a recurring truth is the best way to mitigate a good pass rush is to run right at it. CJ Anderson running right at a 250 pound DE...? I'll take it. Or Janovich blasting a path up the middle, taking out a smaller MLB or safety who would otherwise have come in on a delayed blitz while the ball carrier picks up a crucial 3 yards on 3rd and 2. This kind of stuff will wear a defense down.

Especially when you consider...

One final point on the run game is that with our home field advantage being the altitude nothing wears a team out more than just working your way down the field with the run game. I could see having the run game become the focal point of the offense really make life hell on a defense especially if they don't have great depth.

Repeated runs on a defense late in a game are going to demoralize the opponent. If the Broncos do this and play to their HFA, an advantage lacking for other teams, then in half their schedule they will really have a decided advantage other teams lack in their home games. The run game is physical and gritty, and won't be as exciting to a lot of general NFL fans. It may not be popular with the league offices, either. But it will likely be extremely effective.

I am really liking the physical and nasty direction this team appears to be heading in. What I want to see from this team in 2016 is our opponents with a shell shocked and defeated look on their face in their post game interviews. I want to hear them have to shrug and say, "You have to have a short memory in this league." and chalk up their game with the Broncos as one to forget.

 

[cdumler7]

Another point to add on to that is it does seem like Elway is wanting to build the most intimidating team in the entire league. What I mean by that is nobody wants to play the Broncos because they just beat the heck out of you on both sides of the ball. Even if you win good chance the players are bloodied and bruised on both sides of the ball making the next week that much tougher. Which could be huge against our divisional opponents. I remember I think it was the 2013 season that almost every single team lost the next week after playing the Seahawks and I do think part of that was because they just beat teams up to where recovery just didn't quite go as easy.

We obviously saw Elway's change on the defensive side of the ball getting physical players like Ward, Talib, and Ware to really set the tone of what our defense is going to be. So now look at the offensive side of the ball getting a guy like Janovich to really pound especially on those linebackers at the 2nd level and of course having some physical runners like Anderson and Booker now on the roster. I've always thought the idea of having a bruiser and quick running back would not be as good as having 2 bruisers that can rotate in staying fresh and just pounding that front 7 and making the secondary not want to face them one on one.

Pretty much even if you beat us there will be a price to have been paid to have done so.

 

[iknowftbll]

Agree, CD. It would be great to see the Broncos be a brutish, ugly, physical team that not only beats opponents but BEATS them. Last year we heard a lot of complaints from Chiefs fans that the Broncos were dirty. They were staking that claim to the fact the Broncos drew more personal fouls than other teams, as if every personal foul assessed was a legitimate, especially against a defense these days. I also thing the defense played with a chip because opponents held on them so often and 95% of the time got away with it. I was beginning to wonder if the refs in the Super Bowl even remembered holding was against the rules with the way the Panthers were getting away with it. So if Von Miller is a step away when a QB releases it's easy to see why he's still going to unload and blast the guy. People are going to call that dirty. I'd argue it wouldn't happen if holding penalties on our opponents were assessed properly.

That's a bit off subject, and actually a worthy discussion of it's own.

 

[cdumler7]

Agree, CD. It would be great to see the Broncos be a brutish, ugly, physical team that not only beats opponents but BEATS them. Last year we heard a lot of complaints from Chiefs fans that the Broncos were dirty. They were staking that claim to the fact the Broncos drew more personal fouls than other teams, as if every personal foul assessed was a legitimate, especially against a defense these days. I also thing the defense played with a chip because opponents held on them so often and 95% of the time got away with it. I was beginning to wonder if the refs in the Super Bowl even remembered holding was against the rules with the way the Panthers were getting away with it. So if Von Miller is a step away when a QB releases it's easy to see why he's still going to unload and blast the guy. People are going to call that dirty. I'd argue it wouldn't happen if holding penalties on our opponents were assessed properly.

That's a bit off subject, and actually a worthy discussion of it's own.

Yeah if it wasn't so sad it would have been comical how much our guys were getting held especially Von Miller. I mean the man would be heading right for the QB to have somebody grab him by the back of his jersey and pull him straight backwards yet nothing. Or the times he would turn the corner and a guy would grab his inside shoulder and drag him to the ground right in front of the official but nothing. Anyway all that doesn't matter as we still won the Super Bowl!

And I do remember Chiefs fans complaining about our team being dirty. They were not happy when Kelce got body slammed by Miller. I love watching that play.


And yes our defense did play right on the edge of dirty. The best defenses in the NFL do. And yes there are times where they cross that. Now while I don't like that we have some plays like Talib poking a guy in the eye I do understand if I want my team to play with such aggression and emotion to really intimidate and dominate then that will come with it sometimes. Have to take the good with the bad.

 

[CEH]

Denver will have to be a 24.5 ppg (19 ppg offense / 22.5 overall last year but defense scored 6 TDs last year) assuming the D gives up 18 ppg otherwise the scores will be too close to allow the QB with to play with a the full playbook and allow him to potentially turn the ball over and/or potentially make a big play .

24 TD and 13 Ints 3500 yards would be a very good season at QB for Denver. Most pundits would say not possible with Sanchez . Plummer came from ARI but he put up similar passing yards in ARI as in Denver so he had shown the ability to throw plus Jake was a playmaker being able to make a play off schedule. Sanchez is more drop back and has not shown the ability to make a play off schedule. Right now Mark is known more for his butt fumble than anything else. This is his chance to change public opinion on his legacy as an NFL QB.

The stats above would be a pleasant surprise from the QB position this year.

 

[iknowftbll]

Yeah if it wasn't so sad it would have been comical how much our guys were getting held especially Von Miller. I mean the man would be heading right for the QB to have somebody grab him by the back of his jersey and pull him straight backwards yet nothing. Or the times he would turn the corner and a guy would grab his inside shoulder and drag him to the ground right in front of the official but nothing. Anyway all that doesn't matter as we still won the Super Bowl!

And I do remember Chiefs fans complaining about our team being dirty. They were not happy when Kelce got body slammed by Miller. I love watching that play.


And yes our defense did play right on the edge of dirty. The best defenses in the NFL do. And yes there are times where they cross that. Now while I don't like that we have some plays like Talib poking a guy in the eye I do understand if I want my team to play with such aggression and emotion to really intimidate and dominate then that will come with it sometimes. Have to take the good with the bad.

It was frustrating as hell to see our opponents get away with holding so often. It's unseen "stats" like this that sort of bolster the qualitative arguments that this defense was one of the greatest of all time. Refs ignored the rules of the game and they still dominated. I think it was you who broke down the stats on holding penalties, and historical stats on teams with good pass rushers historically getting more hold penalties assessed in their favor. And last year's Broncos were so obscenely below the averages. It was not just negligence but I started at points wondering if it was agenda on the league's part. And I'm not one of those guys who believes the league is fixed!

And through all that they still won the Super Bowl. I've encountered a few Panthers fans who have complained to me that the officiating was piss poor. I tell them I agree, and the game would have likely looked a lot worse for the Panthers than 24-10 had the refs called holding even half the time the Panthers did it.

 

[Mingo]

One thing I found very interesting last season - was the Broncos were at their freshest, best executing, with their best roster depth - at the finish of the season and for the playoffs. These Bronco teams are going to roll it out slow and continue to play close games - they want their best play at the end of the season. - brilliantly done last year.

 

[Manimal Sighting]

Lots of good points and I agree with damn near all of it. As far as penalties go, yes there were many missed calls on both sides but I don't think it was a complete game changer in either direction. The missed holding calls are going to be way more noticeable to us than panthers fans anyways.
Just out of curiosity what do people see as being a very important part of next years team?
One thing for example I think is that our ability to start fast/get early leads will be huge next year. With the running game being more central an early lead not only puts us in a position to run the clock but also forces opposing teams to throw...enter our elite pass rush and cover corners. Also agree with the earlier statement about the O-Line being pivotal.
A possible sleeper position of strength for me is our TEs. Feel like Green is capable but doesn't get too many looks, Heuerman seemed to be a coach favorite before injury and it seems like Kubiak will get to have more say in the Offense this year which leads to more 2 TE sets

 

[cdumler7]

Lots of good points and I agree with damn near all of it. As far as penalties go, yes there were many missed calls on both sides but I don't think it was a complete game changer in either direction. The missed holding calls are going to be way more noticeable to us than panthers fans anyways.
Just out of curiosity what do people see as being a very important part of next years team?
One thing for example I think is that our ability to start fast/get early leads will be huge next year. With the running game being more central an early lead not only puts us in a position to run the clock but also forces opposing teams to throw...enter our elite pass rush and cover corners. Also agree with the earlier statement about the O-Line being pivotal.
A possible sleeper position of strength for me is our TEs. Feel like Green is capable but doesn't get too many looks, Heuerman seemed to be a coach favorite before injury and it seems like Kubiak will get to have more say in the Offense this year which leads to more 2 TE sets

Honestly since Elway got here he has been working to build our team to resemble the 1997-98 teams. An aggressive defense with a great secondary on one side of the ball, and an offense that can control the game from the get go. Those teams back then did an incredible job of scripting the first couple of drives and really keeping a team on their heals building an early lead then leaning on Davis to just make it impossible for a team to have the chances to come back. I agree the early/fast starts will be huge as it gives our offense a chance to focus on the run game and maybe limit our weakest position on offense in the QB position while also allowing our defense to hunt the QB.

To me a pivotal part for us having success will be turnover differential. Our defense should still be an incredible unit. They got put into too many terrible positions last year because of the turnovers on offense. This is my one worry with Sanchez if he is the starter is that he has been known to be a turnover machine. We need him to limit his mistakes as a punt is a much better option than a terrible interception any day.

 

[Manimal Sighting]

Agreed on turnovers, always super important but perhaps even more this year.
I hate to say it and I know many have argued there is no basis for it but...
I'm worried about our D next year.
I know we didn't lose many starters, we have continuity this year with the system, good depth and talent at every level but high expectations worry me. Just look at the sudden turnaround from our 2013 historic offense to last year. For sure gonna hope that doesn't happen and there isn't a very compelling argument that it would but maintaining that level of success is extremely difficult. Maybe the run game will be what I hope it can and keeps them off the field and doesn't put them in bad situations. It felt like so many of the (admittedly few) points our D gave up were off of turnovers and bad field position

 

[cdumler7]

Agreed on turnovers, always super important but perhaps even more this year.
I hate to say it and I know many have argued there is no basis for it but...
I'm worried about our D next year.
I know we didn't lose many starters, we have continuity this year with the system, good depth and talent at every level but high expectations worry me. Just look at the sudden turnaround from our 2013 historic offense to last year. For sure gonna hope that doesn't happen and there isn't a very compelling argument that it would but maintaining that level of success is extremely difficult. Maybe the run game will be what I hope it can and keeps them off the field and doesn't put them in bad situations. It felt like so many of the (admittedly few) points our D gave up were off of turnovers and bad field position

See our defense is in a different situation than our offense though. Our offense to me fell off for 3 reasons

1) Probably most important the declining skills of Peyton Manning. We saw it at the end of 2014. He started the year through the first 9 games of the season having 29 touchdowns. He was seriously on pace to come close to matching his 2013 season. If we take that out over 16 games we are talking about 52 touchdown passes. Then only 10 touchdowns over the final 7 games and 8 interceptions. So not quite as bad as this year's version but still a showing of what was to come.

2) System fit--The switching from the Manning/Gase combo to Manning/Kubiak was not a smooth transition. Kubiak's system is about as opposite of a Manning system as you can get in this league. So we saw Kubiak try to give and give as he knew Manning couldn't run his system but the hybrid they came up with was just confusing everybody.

3) OL injuries. We were down to our 3rd and 4th string OT's on the outside, both of our starting Guards dealt with injuries all season long, and then our starting Center was taking his first NFL snaps of his life. When you combine that with the system switch it leads to a lot of chaos and negative plays.

So then go over to the defensive side of the ball and we obviously saw these players fit the Phillips defensive 1-gap system. Honestly I always had to laugh that Elway drafting on the defensive side of the ball he went after guys that could get after the QB and were known for having a great first step to get in the back field yet then he hired Del Rio and Fox who are known more as a 2-gap system group that are predicated on stopping the run. I mean go back and look at Sly Williams and Derek Wolfe in college as both of those guys were great at getting tackles for loss because they had a great first step but they were not known as great anchors. So to me our new scheme fits our guys much better compared to the offense where last year it didn't really fit our group as much. So now in comes 7 new starters on the offensive side of the ball to better fit what Kubiak wants to do.

 

[iknowftbll]

Agreed on turnovers, always super important but perhaps even more this year.
I hate to say it and I know many have argued there is no basis for it but...
I'm worried about our D next year.
I know we didn't lose many starters, we have continuity this year with the system, good depth and talent at every level but high expectations worry me. Just look at the sudden turnaround from our 2013 historic offense to last year. For sure gonna hope that doesn't happen and there isn't a very compelling argument that it would but maintaining that level of success is extremely difficult. Maybe the run game will be what I hope it can and keeps them off the field and doesn't put them in bad situations. It felt like so many of the (admittedly few) points our D gave up were off of turnovers and bad field position

CD really broke down how and why the Broncos dropped from historic offense to what we saw in 2015. I'll just echo this: The system change is the biggest reason why. Even in the latter half of 2014 when Manning was clearly not at the levels we saw in 2013 and the first half of 2014 he was still serviceable. BTW, it's fair to question how realistic it was to expect a QB to continue on the pace Manning had during that season and a half, especially at his age. That was nothing short of historic, SB no-show notwithstanding. With that said, Manning in the second half of 2014 was still better than the Manning of 2015. And I think the system change had a lot to do with it. As noted, his skill set just doesn't mesh with the fundamentals in the Kubiak offense. I really don't think Peyton gets enough credit for, after all he accomplished in the league going into 2015, giving Kubiak's offense a shot. I've seen some serious hate for the guy levied in some circles and all I can say to that is success breeds contempt. I think that a QB of his caliber stepped out of his comfort zone...Anyway, I'm getting off track.

The point is: the system change is probably the most significant factor in Manning's decline from 2014 to 2015. From the first half of 2014 to the second half? It happens. A nagging injury, an aging QB and an impossibly torrid pace that we all knew wouldn't be sustained indefinitely.

Now this cannot be said of the defense from 2015 to 2016. In fact, the second year in the defense it's fair to expect some degree of improvement. The players all seem to thing that'll be the case. I think the second year factor alone off sets the losses of Trevathon and Jackson. At least to a significant degree. Ware will have a reduced role, but between Ray and Barrett and with Ware's continued presence on 3rd downs and in the locker room I'm not too worried about the drop off. By all reports, Talib should be ready to go by the time the season starts. If that GSW to his leg slows him in any way, we have a very capable option in Roby stepping in for him.

It'll be hard for the defense to lead in so many categories like they did last year. But consider the situations they were put in last year: the offense gave up a lot of pick-6s, inflating the "points against" numbers fro the Broncos, numbers charged to the defense. Other scores came on short fields on the heals of turnovers inside FG range. Suppose the offense is marginally improved, but the area in which they are improved is reducing turnovers and 3 and outs. That alone should help the defense tremendously. They may allow more yards, maybe not get as many sacks, or whatever, but the ultimate goal is to keep the enemy from scoring. And I think the 2016 defense will actually be better in this capacity than the 2015 unit. And that's saying something.

 

[CEH]

One could easily assume a worst or similar offense in 2016 which was a bad lower 1/3 offense with maybe 4/5 of a new Oline, the QB brand new to the system and has 108 turnovers in 75 games or has some familiarity but has never taken a real snap in the NFL or a flat out rookie . If Manning had trouble, I could easily see Sanchez, Siemian or Lynch having issues in the first year.

 

[58crash]

Excellent CD

 

[Manimal Sighting]

I think my comment may have been interpreted in a way I did not intend. The comment regarding the offense and their sudden drop off from year to year was less about the individual circumstances surrounding them and more about discrepancy in general in the NFL. The league is set up so that teams can make big changes quickly. I just as easily could have used an example of team with a top 3 pick in the draft that turns around and makes the playoffs the next year but the broncos example was familiar. Point was big changes happen from year to year unlike say MLB. That being said the reasons laid out by IKF and CD for why those changes lead to a sharp decline I agree with(system, injuries to tackles...etc.)
The main point I was trying to convey however was that I have an irrational fear of defensive failure. I gave many reasons as to why I shouldn't be too worried including many that you all reiterated. Truth is I am excited about our D this year. I was pumped about them going into last year as well. There is just a small part of me that has to temper expectations and I believe that much of that is just how I am as a person.
I remember one point this past season where things were going badly during a game and I was one of if not the only person making comments like 'don't worry it isn't over yet, anything can happen' and they came back to win. When we have a 14 point lead with 30 seconds to go I am also the person thinking 'be careful it isn't over yet'...just who I am. I can look to logic and see that we should have a quality D this year on paper but high expectations yield low returns. Injuries can happen, maybe Von's contract situation takes a weird turn or they lose the drive to be great that they had last year. I don't want any of that to happen as a fan but I was just stating my concern that it is a possibility

 

[58crash]

Manning did fall off but everyone seemed to be trying to hard on the O side in general .. the WR's all but Flowers seemed to be butter fingers last season .