Who Will make a New Year's 6 Bowl in 2015? The Journey

[BoiseStateFan27]

I'm going to sticky this as our officially thread for this year to measure up to how we're doing in the race for a New Year's 6 bowl.

An undefeated record with our schedule would almost guarantee us a spot in a New Year's 6 bowl thanks to our pedigree and past performances, only way we may miss is if something stupid happens like dadburn Mid Tenn State somehow goes unbeaten with a win over Alabama, in other words a very unlikely scenario.

But we struggled this past week, that's no secret, our coaching staff has shown in the past the ability to make great adjustments week by week, but with how awful our special teams are we would have to make a dramatic change, so I can't see us beating BYU

Us with a loss to BYU is where it gets interesting, for one BYU would sure regret not being in a conference as they would be the lead candidate, but they aren't, so moving on.

There's the obvious candidates:
Cincinnati - they get games against Miami-Florida, and what could perhaps put them ahead or behind us is a road game against BYU, just like what we had, if they win that they have the lead track, if they lose they need us to lose again, a home game against Temple and road games against Memphis and Houston will also challenge them, the American has a conference championship game this year.

Marshall- they were in contention last year, things don't look as hopeful for them as they mostly struggled against Purdue, the good news and bad news for them is the schedule is easy, Western Kentucky on the road is a major challenge, more on them later.

New candidates making appearances this year:

Temple- As you may know they just burst onto the scene with a dominating win over Penn State, and we won't wait long to learn more about them, they go on the road to play Cincinnati this weekend. Their toughest games after that are at home, though Notre Dame at home is quite a bit to go up against, they also get Memphis at home, a game that I'm not sure of but could be tricky is SMU, they looked much improved. The opposite of those ends by the way is UCF, wow did they lay a stinker, they are no longer considered a good opponent for the time being, East Carolina has also dropped off an is struggling.

Louisiana Tech- They had great success with a transfer QB now they have a much more talented one in former Florida QB Jeff Driskel who struggled at Florida, but like many former Muschamp QBs at Florida, looks to be reinventing his career at a new school. Louisiana Tech overall has a good team and they benefit tremendously from their schedule, it features games against Kansas State and Misssissippi State, those aren't close to easy games, but there's a chance they could win one or both of those, plus Conference USA overall looks in good shape with a lot of teams getting good wins or putting up good performances, and there's Rice who some Texas fans think they will lose to.

Western Kentucky- mentioning conference USA Western Kentucky is in this battle too, though I don't see their odds being as great they struggled on offense of all things against Vanderbilt which could mean they somehow regressed in that area, they have a big game against the aforementioned Louisiana Tech this Thursday to show it hasn't the other issue is they go on the road against LSU, they have almost no hope of winning that game, but perhaps they'll luck out and it will get rained out and cancelled.

Houston- bit of a longshot here, I'm not sure how good they are, they play Louisville this week so we'll learn how much of a contender they are then, games against Vanderbilt, Cincinnati, Navy, Memphis and possibly SMU will loom large for them.

Memphis- mentioning Memphis, they are a candidate too, they have a tough group of games too, the biggest is against Ole Miss, if they can keep that one really close it will go a long ways for them, they also have challenges against Bowling Green, Cincinnati, Houston, possibly SMU and Navy

Navy- Mentioning Navy, they too are candidate. Their biggest game of course is against Notre Dame, they've been prone to giving them tough challenges lately so if Navy can pull the upset there it will look good for them. They also have other big games against Houston, Memphis, Air Force, and possibly SMU.

Appalachian State- a real big longshot due to their schedule. This week's game against Clemson will be one they have to have a good showing in for any hope, if they get blown out there a 11-1 record will absolutely get them nowhere.

There's no one in the Mac listed for now because it's tough to see Bowling Green being a candidate with a 29 point loss to Tennessee, Northern Illinois and Western Michigan will likely get destroyed by Ohio State, and Toledo can't ever beat power 5 teams.

I also didn't list Mountain West teams because simply we just have to win the MWC to eliminate all of them.

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

The answer is probably not

I can't imagine us going without multiple loses the way our offense plays in the 4th quarter

Oddly all the teams I listed as obvious candidates lost

Cincinnati lost to Temple and Marshall lost to Ohio

those unforeseen circumstances? Well Toledo upset Arkansas without their best player, that is a stunner

The Mac has certainly entered the competition with that, the Ohio win over Marshall I previously mentioned and Bowling Green looked impressive in blowing out Maryland.

The American is in the best shape

Temple amazingly looks very good so far, and now only a road game on a Thursday night looks any bit challenging for Temple until they host Notre Dame on Halloween, Temple has a real shot at going unbeaten, something I never thought I would say

Memphis is off to a 2-0 start and they have blown out Kansas and Missouri State so far, they will be tested by Bowling Green on the road next week, a nice game that will help develop this group of 5 race.

Houston also grabbed a big win over Louisville and they look good so far in Tom Herman's first year

Houston has some tough tests ahead though, when you look at their schedule Louisville is who you would think was their best opponent, but Louisville could be really bad this year, so bigger challenges could be ahead but there's a real shot that the American championship could be undefeated Houston vs undefeated Temple.

Conference USA quickly faded, Western Kentucky is still undefeated, but realistically they won't beat LSU or even put up a good fight, hurting their chances by a lot.

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

Our name brand is the only thing keeping us in it at this point

the MWC sucks this year and it's going to bring us down

The American is just well above the pack at the moment

Temple, Memphis, Houston, Navy and Cincinnati are all candidates, that should tell you right there when there's 5 candidates from the same conference, it even has depth with Tulsa, SMU, ECU and USF all being pests to major conference foes.

Sabotage(ie all the teams beating each other up) is about the only thing that would prevent the American from getting the auto bid, this conference lineup this year is better than the majority of the old Big East conferences that had auto bids throughout the years

The other thing that's in their way is Toledo, they now have two wins over power conference foes, the good news is Northern Illinois owns Toledo, but Northern Illinois thus far only has a 7 point loss to Ohio State on the road, so yes that is a very impressive performance by them. The Mac also has an undefeated Ohio, and the team that would be the spoiler for this conference's hopes for an auto bid is Bowling Green who has the nation's best passing offense, but with two losses they're out, especially since they lost to Memphis out of the American, putting them behind in the pecking order.

Western Kentucky lost to Indiana, realistically they're out, they have to win out to have a chance, and one of those games is LSU, if Western Kentucky can even have offensive success they might allow the record for rushing yardage to Leonard Fournette on defense as they can't stop the run.

 

[BoiseMike19]

I think/hope you are right with the "brand name" value. Looking at the potential non P5 contenders, I don't see any going undefeated. If one does, God bless them, they deserve it. We have been the victim of not making it because we didn't match up in the beauty contest with more well known and stable programs multiple times in the past. I think any non P5 with the same record as BSU faces the same fate. We have paid our dues, proven we travel, and most importantly proven we can win. If we handle business with some authority the rest of the way, I don't see any one loss non P5 being ranked above us in the end.

 

[Olyduck]

New Years 6 is inaccurate
Rose and Sugar are on NYD but are already booked with Big 10, Pac 12, SEC and Big XII no matter what
the playoff games this year are the Orange and Cotton being played on Dec 31.
Peach Bowl is also played on DEC 31
the Fiesta Bowl is the only other bowl in the system and is played on Jan 1st. and in all honesty the only likely landing spot for Boise State this year if they make it in.

 

[Olyduck]

Houston They got past Louisville and they have plenty of other tough opponents but I think Louisville was (or appeared to be) theyre toughest game.

Toledo theyre tough game was Ark and they got through Northern Illinois and Bowling green still stand in the way the rest of the MAC slate meh.

Ohio If they get past Minn not much esle in the way except BG and NIU

Also to remember though there is no undefeated clause. it is the highest ranked champion from one of the other 5 leagues. so even a loss or 2 doesnt rule anyone out.

 

[Olyduck]

So really that leaves options of the Fiesta and Peach this year and 1 spot is already occupied by the ACC (champion or next best if Champ is in playoff) which I think they would be in Peach due to proximity. and depending on who else was available I think Boise would end up in Fiesta again.

Next year would be a better year to go for the Big 6 Bowls so that you could change it up and probably play for the Cotton Bowl.

 

[Berkeley_Blues]

Hey 27,

Rypien look great. New Year's 6 here we come!

 

[Boise4Life]

This team without Finley is the real deal Holyfield. I can't believe how incredibly bad that kid is. He should be working at the conssession stand. With Rypien instead of Finley, Boise goes into Provo and beats them by 3 or 4 TDs minimum. That's how terrible Finley was in that game. But this team is absolutely loaded everywhere. If they earn a Peach or Fiesta Bowl birth, look out. And if it is the Fiesta, I'd beat dollars to donuts that they will be celebrating a four Fiesta Bowl championship in 10 seasons regardless of the opponent. That's on the real.

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

Our whole team played so much better with Rypien it's ridiculous if we miss out on a big bowl our coaches will definitely rue the decision to start Finley

Toledo is a scary threat, they're ahead of us in the rankings and as sad as it is to say the Mac provides better competition for them than the MWC does for us

Toledo's schedule is overall tougher but thanks to our brand they still need to be undefeated

Toledo's biggest games are Bowling Green and Northern Illinois, Toledo has owned Bowling Green lately, but they have been owned by Northern Illinois

other than that we have the American to watch out for, if Memphis or Temple can pull a very unlikely upset they might have us beat

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

We should, I repeat should roll through our schedule now

Utah State may have found something with Myers at QB so they're a threat

but then we have to wait and hope the American takes themselves out

Temple, Memphis, Houston and Navy are all unbeaten and any one of them staying that way would get in over us

But,

even though they have a tougher schedule than us our name brand would get us in if they all have one loss most likely, especially since we are a new team with Rypien

but with all the upsets going on, can you imagine what we would look like if we started Rypien from the beginning

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

I forgot to mention Toledo is still unbeaten and rolling


our other advantage for the rest of this year is

we've been there before, they haven't

these teams aren't used to others gunning for them, we are

like Marshall last year there's a chance they would take an untimely late loss

 

[BoiseMike19]

Week #7 AP poll has the table set for us. As the top ranked Group of 5, we should just have to handle business tomorrow against USU and not stumble the rest of the way.

 

[Boise4Life]

Week #7 AP poll has the table set for us. As the top ranked Group of 5, we should just have to handle business tomorrow against USU and not stumble the rest of the way.

Make no mistake about it, the committee will put an undefeated Toledo in over Boise and they definitely, definitely without question will put an undefeated AAC team in over them. And truthfully they probably should. Forget what the AP poll says. That has nothing to do with anything. The fact that the MWC conference sucks this season is not helping matters either. Only the Sun Belt and Conference USA and maybe the MAC are worse this season, but even with the MAC that's debatable. We have to hope for every other Group of 5 that's currently undefeated to lose and then Boise will get the bid assuming they win out from here on. It will be a shame if Ryan Finley costs us a spot in the Peach or Fiesta Bowl with his shithouse play. If Rypien would have played that BYU game we would have won by 3 to 4 touchdowns minimum, same thing with the Washington game. That's a testament to how good he is and mostly how bad Finley sucks. It's unfortunate because this Boise team is absolutely loaded. It would be such a waste. Thank you Ryan Finley for your shitty play and thank you Boise coaches for naming him the starter at the outset of the season.

 

[Boise4Life]

So much for that. Holy shit that was humiliating.

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

Changed the title to reflect the situation

 

[pitman]

Not BSU

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

Yes, there's a long list of teams ahead of us

it's been a strong year for mid majors, not named Boise State.

Those American teams are ones to keep an eye on, Memphis has already looked impressive, they actually have a possibility of breaking into the playoff if they can go unbeaten. They would still need some chaos and a good enough performance by Temple to ensure that they're ranked when they face Memphis, that way Memphis would have two ranked teams left on their slate, and may play Temple twice.

I'm rooting for Memphis and Temple because they would give us a good gauge on if we could make the playoff one day. If they can even be strongly considered then we have a good shot one day, a lot of luck is involved, need things to break your way, and that's not even just what you do as a team, your whole conference has to perform in order to give you a playoff chance

The perfect storm is starting to form for Memphis and Temple, but we'll see how they do down the stretch, a lot of football to be played. Houston is the spoiler in this scenario, they didn't play a strong enough non-conference schedule and despite how good wins over Memphis and Temple would be, Houston simply wouldn't have enough to make it.

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

No we did not make it

Houston did, and they won quite convincingly