Which Teams are pretenders

[ATL96Steeler]

kinda early to worry about match-ups yet
This could and probably will change before seasons end

They are all pretenders till proven otherwise

Unique take.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Since this fake news is entering the board, the Chiefs D is like 13th against the pass in DVOA and 26th overall by DVOA (and has trended overall since the Pats game). If you are getting boatraced by a dominant offense, it really doesn't matter if you can run the ball.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Of the top seeds...I agree KC has the best chance to be a one and done team. While the OFC has been prolific the DEF has been that bad and I don't think they can fix it with Berry alone.

FWIW, the yards per target they've allowed to TE's and RB's is down like almost 3 yards since they inserted O'Daniel into the lineup. They are still really vulnerable to TE's down field- but they are much better against the pass at the 2nd level than they were earlier in the season. The real question is if Berry can do his thing- if so, then it gets very interesting.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

Its easier to name the non pretenders.

Chiefs
Pat's
Saints
Rams

This is pretty much it...the top two seeds in both conferences are a cut above the rest. I do have some reservations about KC breezing into the AFCCG.

 

[SeattleCoug]

Do you honestly think Seattle has a legit shot at winning the Super Bowl?

Only way I'd see them getting there is if someone knocked out the Saints for them. I think they can beat any other NFC team. They went to the end against the Rams twice

 

[ATL96Steeler]

FWIW, the yards per target they've allowed to TE's and RB's is down like almost 3 yards since they inserted O'Daniel into the lineup. They are still really vulnerable to TE's down field- but they are much better against the pass at the 2nd level than they were earlier in the season. The real question is if Berry can do his thing- if so, then it gets very interesting.

They need that impact from Berry....my BIL is a big KC fan in NoCal...was at the game last week in OAK...his fear is KC having a weather day in JAN and Mahomes is just a little off...he has no confidence in the DEF being able to hold up.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

They need that impact from Berry....my BIL is a big KC fan in NoCal...was at the game last week in OAK...his fear is KC having a weather day in JAN and Mahomes is just a little off...he has no confidence in the DEF being able to hold up.

I hear ya. I would be shocked if they lost in the playoffs and it wasn't the D farting around. I would just posit the data does indicate they are trending significantly better against the two things that have absolutely killed them: TE's and RB's through the air. They are worst in the league against the run, which I don't see an easy fix for with Hitchens and Ragland constantly misdiagnosing gaps.

I can't divulge all the details right now as I am actually writing an article involving it, but what I can say is whenever your yards per target allowed to multiple positions drops by 3 yards over a 6 game span, it has to have your attention when it coincides with inserting a new player if nothing else. Can't say anything causative at this point in time, but it passes the eyetest.

Lot more plays like this now

 

[ATL96Steeler]

I hear ya. I would be shocked if they lost in the playoffs and it wasn't the D farting around. I would just posit the data does indicate they are trending significantly better against the two things that have absolutely killed them: TE's and RB's through the air. They are worst in the league against the run, which I don't see an easy fix for with Hitchens and Ragland constantly misdiagnosing gaps.

I can't divulge all the details right now as I am actually writing an article involving it, but what I can say is whenever your yards per target allowed to multiple positions drops by 3 yards over a 6 game span, it has to have your attention when it coincides with inserting a new player if nothing else. Can't say anything causative at this point in time, but it passes the eyetest.

Lot more plays like this now

O'Daniel…Face and I really liked this kid in the mock draft. Good to see him with a role.

You mentioned the game plan I expect to see teams shoot for against KC....run it with a ball control passing game and try to limit the KC possessions.

 

[Clayton]

This is pretty much it...the top two seeds in both conferences are a cut above the rest. I do have some reservations about KC breezing into the AFCCG.

I actually don't think the top teams have separated themselves much at all. You could see Denver sneaking into the 6 seed in the AFC and they've proven that they can play with anyone. Titans would be in the same boat and they've given KC some issues in the past and already demolished NE.

Dallas as a 4 seed in the NFC has potential to grind teams out, too.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

I actually don't think the top teams have separated themselves much at all. You could see Denver sneaking into the 6 seed in the AFC and they've proven that they can play with anyone. Titans would be in the same boat and they've given KC some issues in the past and already demolished NE.

Dallas as a 4 seed in the NFC has potential to grind teams out, too.

IDK about DAL on the road...I trust SEA more actually on the road in the NFC...I do agree, they could grind out a game with Zeke if their DEF can keep it close.

AFC...NE is the homefield that will be the toughest to overcome...hard to see them losing at home...BAL @ NE would be an interesting game though....

 

[CaptainStubing]

THat are currently in the playoffs

AFC
CHiefs
Pats
Texans
Ravens
Steelers
Chargers

NFC
Saints
Rams
Cowboys
Seahawks
vikings
bears

For me
AFC-Ravens, Chargers, Texans, (Steelers-Maybe)
NFC-Seahawks Vikings

right now, in the NFC, i really can't say with any confidence that any team other than the saints or rams has a decent chance of getting to the SB so i guess they are all pretenders.

It's more interesting in the AFC, where I will call the Chiefs, Texans, and Chargers all pretenders.

All of these teams have lengthy histories of coming up short in the playoffs ... don't really have any confidence in them in 'any' year.

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

Every team has some flaws and if the match-up is bad, they can be beat.

I agree that the Rams and Saints are the obvious only real contenders in the NFC but I don't trust the Saints as much outside the dome. Can the Bears or Cowboys defense shut down some teams? Of course they can. We've seen it if one of those top 2 falters a little but can they carry their team to the SB? Until they prove otherwise, I'm not sure. Vikings likely a 6 seed and blown out by the Bears. Can't trust Cousins. Seahawks a nice story but the defense still to young across the board and maybe can pull of an upset WC weekend but barring a miracle run, can't see them being a contender.

AFC, I think the Pats are obvious contenders. The Chiefs should be and likely are but still have to prove it in the play-offs. Can't really trust anybody else in the AFC despite how well they are playing. Maybe one of them will prove us all wrong.

 

[Clayton]

right now, in the NFC, i really can't say with any confidence that any team other than the saints or rams has a decent chance of getting to the SB so i guess they are all pretenders.

It's more interesting in the AFC, where I will call the Chiefs, Texans, and Chargers all pretenders.

All of these teams have lengthy histories of coming up short in the playoffs ... don't really have any confidence in them in 'any' year.

Its weird to champion the Rams and Saints as confident playoff picks based on history. I get that KC actually has 3 different trends they need to break but the Rams and Saints aren't exactly the Patriots, either.

 

[CaptainStubing]

Its weird to champion the Rams and Saints as confident playoff picks based on history. I get that KC actually has 3 different trends they need to break but the Rams and Saints aren't exactly the Patriots, either.

i think you make a fair point about the Saints ... their recent playoff results haven't exactly been astounding. However, in the case of this new version of the Rams, they have only failed once. That's not exactly a long-term pattern. I need to see them fail multiple times before calling them January chokers like all of the other teams mentioned.

 

[Hank Kingsley]

The Rams looked good last year and got beaten by the Falcons in LA. Not sure how tough winning in LA will be for an opponent.

Recall that Packers game where there were more Cheeseheads than Rams fans.

 

[dkmightyhammer]

I think Seattle should make the playoffs and they probably can win their first wildcard matchup, whether its against the Cowboys, or Eagles or Vikes or one of the other B-level teams we'll face. And don't be offended, I consider the Seahawks a B-level team as well. But in order for the Hawks to win the SB it probably means they'd also need to beat the Saints and Rams, and either the Chiefs or Pats. That would be one impressive run, and I just don't see the Hawks doing that. Especially since every game would be on the road to boot. But one can dream.

 

[CaptainStubing]

I think Seattle should make the playoffs and they probably can win their first wildcard matchup, whether its against the Cowboys, or Eagles or Vikes or one of the other B-level teams we'll face. And don't be offended, I consider the Seahawks a B-level team as well. But in order for the Hawks to win the SB it probably means they'd also need to beat the Saints and Rams, and either the Chiefs or Pats. That would be one impressive run, and I just don't see the Hawks doing that. Especially since every game would be on the road to boot. But one can dream.

i think this is a fair assessment ... they would probably face the cowboys in the wild card round ... not exactly unwinnable, but after that it would get exponentially harder.

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

Its weird to champion the Rams and Saints as confident playoff picks based on history. I get that KC actually has 3 different trends they need to break but the Rams and Saints aren't exactly the Patriots, either.

Good points but I think a lot depends on HFA as well. The Saints at home are a different animal then the Saints on the road.
I think the Rams learned a lot from last year but I also think this game in Chicago is going to tell us a lot about them.
I also think picking them as contenders has a lot to do with a lack of trust in any of the other teams in the conference. Of course, the Bears or Cowboys could prove otherwise. I don't like Minny and just don't know if Seattle's D is good enough to make a run.

 

[mcnabb7542]

fear the bears

 

[DHoey]

I'd love for the Hawks to get another crack at the Rams.....