What 3 playoff teams in 2018 will miss the playoffs in 2019?

[elocomotive]

Maybe this deserves a separate thread, but my 3 biggest expected disappointments are:

That's a great idea for a thread!

I couched it just a little differently, but what playoff team in 2018 misses the dance in the upcoming season?

 

[elocomotive]

To save @BGDave the time and effort...

Pens - Matt Murray is excused from the team after New Years for "personal reasons". Kris LeTang does not answer any media questions.
Preds - Subban will be traded to TOR in the offseason after admitting to have shoved Carrie Underwood down the stairs in her home
Vegas - I love the story as much as anyone, but lightning doesn't strike twice.

 

[elocomotive]

I'm gonna go with:
Minnesota
Anaheim
Pittsburgh

 

[BGDave]

To save @BGDave the time and effort...

Thank you!

 

[forty_three]

Colorado - I don't think Grubauer is the answer. Jackets showed his weaknesses pretty well last year. Plus they took Ian Cole and I want them to fail.
Philly - They didn't seem to improve a lot while everyone around them got better or stayed just as good. Florida should take their spot pretty easily. Plus I expect an improvement in the Isles as well.
Vegas - No one will be surprised by them anymore and Karlsson, as much as I love the guy, can't possibly maintain a 25% scoring average.

Blues, Stars and Flames should all be on the upswing.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

Already said Washington, I'll throw in Minny and Philly.

But really the Pacific Division should just be relegated entirely because beyond maybe Evander Kane's San Jose Sharks no team in that division should win more than 15 games and those will all come against each other. Vegas is going to bottom the fuck out and Marc Andre Fleury's GAA will be above 8. Mike Smith is a starting goalie in this division. Randy Carlyle is a head coach in this division. The LA Kings average age is higher than that of the United States Senate. The Canucks will get the 6th overall pick every year for the next 20 years and Jim Benning will still be in charge. The division climate goes directly from frozen fucking tundra to 52 weeks a year of forest fires to vast desert hellscape. Joe fucking Arpaio is the most famous national figure to come out of any of the places these teams play since Richard Nixon.

The fact that 3 teams have to make the playoffs from this division is like giving a Moldovan lunch club's soccer team a guaranteed spot in the Champions League semifinals. Giving Seattle a team and putting them in this division is crueler than taking away the Sonics.

 

[elocomotive]

Already said Washington, I'll throw in Minny and Philly.

I can understand not picking the Caps to win it all, but miss the playoffs? Have arguably one of the best defensive units in the league, as solid as any team at the center position (even without Beagle), the reigning Richard winner, the league's top scoring defenseman, and a Vezina-caliber goalie. They also played much better in the second half of the year (and clearly in the playoffs) if that's an indication of future performance.

I don't get the "paying everyone Cup winner prices" after the season that you mentioned. Orpik's salary dropped dramatically. DSP signed for only one year and only one million (he should have gotten "clutch gene" pay this offseason, even if I think that's stupid). The Eller extension signed in Feb. for $3.5mil per looks brilliant now. Kempney signed for a favorable $2.5 million per considering his contributions and top line play. They paid Carlson $8 million. That's exactly what he's worth and younger by 4-5 years than most defensemen making that kind of money. And Wilson got paaaaid, but at worst we'll look back and say he should have gotten 3.5 or 4 million a few years from now. Many of the young guys on the 3rd and 4th lines should continue to get better.

If you don't think the Caps will win the Cup, fair enough. I doubt it also, it's tough to do. But barring a spate of numerous injuries or a whacky promotion to have a fan be the starting goalie for the first period of all home games, no chance we aren't in the playoffs next season.

 

[Ewa PGH Fan]

Maple Leafs
Flyers
Ducks

 

[forty_three]

Maple Leafs
Flyers
Ducks

I would rupture a spleen laughing.

 

[thedddd]

Knights
Flyers
Kings

 

[esls79]

Ducks
Wild
Marlies

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

I can understand not picking the Caps to win it all, but miss the playoffs? Have arguably one of the best defensive units in the league, as solid as any team at the center position (even without Beagle), the reigning Richard winner, the league's top scoring defenseman, and a Vezina-caliber goalie. They also played much better in the second half of the year (and clearly in the playoffs) if that's an indication of future performance.

I don't get the "paying everyone Cup winner prices" after the season that you mentioned. Orpik's salary dropped dramatically. DSP signed for only one year and only one million (he should have gotten "clutch gene" pay this offseason, even if I think that's stupid). The Eller extension signed in Feb. for $3.5mil per looks brilliant now. Kempney signed for a favorable $2.5 million per considering his contributions and top line play. They paid Carlson $8 million. That's exactly what he's worth and younger by 4-5 years than most defensemen making that kind of money. And Wilson got paaaaid, but at worst we'll look back and say he should have gotten 3.5 or 4 million a few years from now. Many of the young guys on the 3rd and 4th lines should continue to get better.

If you don't think the Caps will win the Cup, fair enough. I doubt it also, it's tough to do. But barring a spate of numerous injuries or a whacky promotion to have a fan be the starting goalie for the first period of all home games, no chance we aren't in the playoffs next season.

I could just let my reasons from earlier stand but...

-Rookie coach. their 5th in 6 years

-Holtby was awful in the regular season last year

-This team was an OT goal away from going down 3-0 and almost being assured of a first round elimination by Columbus

-They re-signed Orpik

-Highly doubt Carlson finishes anywhere near last season's production

-3 of their 5 top scorers last year are 30+ and Carlson will be a year shy of 30 by the time he's scoring his 10th point of the season

-Half the squad just played more than 14 games in the playoffs for the first time ever and their best player is probably 84% champagne & vodka at this point

-Not sure who these "young 3rd and 4th liners" are but let's say we're talking about Burakovsky and Vrana. Progress would be one of them getting to 40 pts. That's not exactly game-changing.

-Before the Penguins' back-to-back, 4 of the last 6 Cup winners either went out in the first round or didn't make the playoffs the next season

All that needs to happen is Pittsburgh, NJ, Philly and Columbus finish ahead of them and they're probably out of the playoffs. That wouldn't be unbelievable to me at all.

 

[forty_three]

-This team was an OT goal away from going down 3-0 and almost being assured of a first round elimination by Columbus

 

[BGDave]

I would rupture a spleen laughing.

 

[tducey]

Minnesota
Anaheim
Columbus

 

[obxyankeefan]

Vegas
Philly
Colorado

Islanders with the biggest drop in points from last year.

 

[Ojb81]

Avalanche
Devils
Flyers

 

[puckhead]

Devils
Avs
Kings

 

[ritari330]

I could just let my reasons from earlier stand but...

-Rookie coach. their 5th in 6 years

Cherry picked stat (you could also say 2nd coach in 4 years) but a rookie coach is a risk.

-Holtby was awful in the regular season last year

And he was amazing in the playoffs. He's likely somewhere between. Considering the rest of his resume, i'm fairly confident he can play above average goaltending.

-This team was an OT goal away from going down 3-0 and almost being assured of a first round elimination by Columbus

Fair, but don't most cup winners have a "turning point" where they faced near elimination from the playoffs?

Will say that Columbus was probably the 2nd best team we faced in the playoffs.

-They re-signed Orpik

Best reason you've listed to be fair.

-Highly doubt Carlson finishes anywhere near last season's production

He doesn't need to for them to make the playoffs. He'll likely be playing less minutes next season because we actually have 4 top-4 defensemen for the whole season.

-3 of their 5 top scorers last year are 30+ and Carlson will be a year shy of 30 by the time he's scoring his 10th point of the season

All are under 33 (Ovechkin). Bet against Ovechkin at your own risk. Especially in the regular season

-Half the squad just played more than 14 games in the playoffs for the first time ever and their best player is probably 84% champagne & vodka at this point

He's Russian. Vodka is in his blood.

-Not sure who these "young 3rd and 4th liners" are but let's say we're talking about Burakovsky and Vrana. Progress would be one of them getting to 40 pts. That's not exactly game-changing.

They need game-changing additions to their lineup? At forward? The one that won the Stanley Cup? Are Kuznetsov and Ovechkin not enough?

-Before the Penguins' back-to-back, 4 of the last 6 Cup winners either went out in the first round or didn't make the playoffs the next season

Only 1 missed the playoffs (2014 LA Kings). So 1 out of the last 8 cup winners.

All that needs to happen is Pittsburgh, NJ, Philly and Columbus finish ahead of them and they're probably out of the playoffs. That wouldn't be unbelievable to me at all.

It's not unbelievable, but I definitely wouldn't say it's likely. You're betting on last season being an overachievement or age to catch up with them for a lot of players.

 

[ritari330]

Minnesota
Anaheim
New Jersey