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Week 5 @ Arkansas State

Cave_Johnson

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Some notes on last week's game before I get started here.

First half was a great effort by the defense other than one big run by GSU. They contained the triple option attack, didn't get abused by the pitch man, and came up with an interception in the red zone. Only 13 points given up despite GSU starting their first drive in the red zone due to a blocked punt. After that though, damn. Back to business as usual. Jayshawn Jordan didn't play the entire game, but I didn't think he and his weekly four blown coverage assignments were missed much out there. What really hurt was having Marc Millan and Jordan Grabski out of the game at the beginning of the second half. With the two most consistent tacklers out GSU busted the game open. Of course the lack of depth due partly to injury at the DT position also had something to do with it.

Offensively Linehan was his usual self. Makes some big plays here, but then throws a dumb pick later. He connected with Epps on 60 and 44 yard TDs but also missed him wide open for another 40+ yard score. His mobility was definitely limited due to his lingering ankle injury which will keep him out this week. The run game was again not quite up to snuff. Still can't seem to crack 4 ypc. Personally I'd like to see Duckworth get more carries as the change of pace back. Penny is a powerful runner but doesn't seem to find the holes as easily as his sophomore team mate.

Now, to the game this week. Both ASU and Idaho come into this one with their back-up QBs getting the start ( as far as I've heard). The Red Wolves' starter Fredi Knighten is nursing a groin injury and Idaho's Matt Linehan is likely out with an ankle issue that has been plaguing him since the USC game.

Knighten is possibly the best all around QB in the Sun Belt when healthy, but he's had a pretty average season thus far. The 2nd string QB, James Tabry, is probably easier to game plan for since he isn't quite as elusive as Knighten has proven to be in the past. Tabry has gotten two starts this season and while he looked great against Missouri State in ASU's only win, he had a very sub-par game again Toldeo last week in a 37-7 loss.

As for Idaho, back up redshirt freshman Jake Luton will get his first career start. He played a few series against USC going 8/13 for 46 yards. I was unable to attend any scrimmages this year so this game is really the only time I've seen him play. Linehan seemed to be a bit jittery during his first drive against the Trojans, but I didn't see that same anxiety from Luton on his first drive. Hopefully he's just as confident on Saturday and comes out ready to play. This kid has a cannon and had plenty of reps during training camp so I don't expect Petrino to dumb down the playbook for him. It would help to take some of the pressure off Luton if the Vandals could average more than 4 ypc running the ball, but I don't see that happening. ASU's defense is not on the same level as GSU's but they're not bad either.

I already mentioned the Jayshawn Jordan injury, he'll likely be out this game. Grabski is questionable and seems unlikely to play which is going to hurt a lot, especially if the depth at DT becomes an issue again. I don't like Idaho's chances if they have go too deep on the depth chart in the secondary and d-line.

Prediction: The line is ASU -22 right now which IMO is too high. Idaho has been within one score at the beginning of the fourth quarter in each of the last two meetings between these teams. Both have some injury issues but Idaho hasn't won on the road in forever. I just don't see it happening this week. If Petrino does indeed decide to rest Linehan now and get him healthy after the bye I think they have a better shot at a road win in two weeks at Troy.

Final Score: Arkansas State 36 Idaho 24

ASU pulls away in the fourth. BTW game's at 4:00 PST on ESPN3 since I know everybody was wondering.
 

Cave_Johnson

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Also just thought I'd point out that I'm 4-0 this year predicting Idaho games. Not that this is hard if you just pick them to lose unless they're playing an FCS team or New Mexico State.
 

Cave_Johnson

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Well, that makes it 5-0 even though my score prediction was a ways off. I had heard 3 or 4 guys on Idaho's defense may miss this game, but it turned out to be 6 starters and another rotational player. Overall only 19 guys available on defense including only 6 DBs. Couple that with a freshman making his first start and you've got a real recipe for disaster. This defense was already terrible, but last night they would have given up 35 to College of Idaho. Really got gashed in the run game ( again ) and the only thing keeping ASU from going over 60 was the fact that their QB was awful.

Luton looked solid on the first drive but other than that just looked like a freshman. Definitely no QB controversy in Moscow. Even with all that the Vandals still managed 35 points which leads me to believe this game would have been winnable if the team was at full strength. Of course, ASU had some injuries as well.

Anyway, overall a terrible, penalty filled game on both sides. Neither team played well, but ASU was the least terrible of the two teams.

If Petrino can get some of these guys rested up on the bye they may have a shot against an 1 win Troy team coming off a butt kicking at Mississippi State.
 
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