Game Thread: Week 17: Seahawks @ Panthers - 10AM PST

[Anointed One]

Speaking of tipped passes, look at how many JJ McCarthy has already this year... 15! And he has 231 less pass attempts than Sam Darnold... That boy is getting them tipped at the LOS like they're going out of style...

 

[Anointed One]

I think blaming Darnold for deflection/tip interceptions is a little unfair. Even his pick yesterday is tough to blame on him. JSN didn't run a great route and then gave up on it making it an easy pick for Jackson. Darnold has no way of knowing whether Jackson will bite on the double move when he has to throw.

All QB's have the same deflection/tip interceptions hurdle...

If you don't have any concern with Sam heading into the postseason, then that's ok... We definitely aren't going to agree on a few things here...

 

[WizardHawk]

I think blaming Darnold for deflection/tip interceptions is a little unfair. Even his pick yesterday is tough to blame on him. JSN didn't run a great route and then gave up on it making it an easy pick for Jackson. Darnold has no way of knowing whether Jackson will bite on the double move when he has to throw.

K, but he leads all QB in fumbles/ fumbles lost. And a lot of them aren't blindside hits he couldn't be ready for.

The two biggest knocks on him are those turnovers and how slow he is to progress through his reads and make decisions.

He has addressed and admitted to having to work on both.

I don't expect him to eliminate either, just do better at both. Turnovers happen and plays can look strained. Knock the frequency off both down 30% even and he's suddenly being talked about more in the top tier of QB's.

He makes enough elite plays to be a franchise starting QB in the NFL. I hope he continues to grow and reduce his mistakes to be considered one of the top QBs in the league.

 

[flyerhawk]

All QB's have the same deflection/tip interceptions hurdle...

If you don't have any concern with Sam heading into the postseason, then that's ok... We definitely aren't going to agree on a few things here...

Of course I have concerns. I just don't like focusing on QB results because people tend to blame/credit the QB for everything.

You go to various social media sites and look at what Seahawk fans are saying, and you would think this team was on the cusp of collapse rather than being a 13 win current #1 seed team.

 

[JMR]

The Niners offense looks outstanding. Their defense, otoh, has given up 89 points in the last 3 games. They have the fewest sacks in the NFL. I would be FAR more concerned as a Niners fan as it essentially unheard of for a bottom half defense to win a Super Bowl.

The offense has flaws certainly. Darnold is Darnold. But I also think this team is absolutely a Super Bowl contender. What I have found really encouraging is how Darnold has played in high leverage situations late in games.

If Shaheed, Arroyo, and Horton can get healthy for the playoffs, that would be pretty huge.

Darnold is Darnold? I am not sure what that means or what you are trying to say there. But we have really had 2 different Darnolds this season, and I think that's the main point that I and others are trying to make. He is not playing now (recently) at the same level we saw the first 2 months of the season, and it's concerning as we are 1 game from the start of the post season.

I do agree we are SB contenders. The defense is for sure championship level, and it's keeping us or even winning us games where the offense does little to help for long stretches. But what is usually the difference between contending and winning? QB play? Turnovers? Those are usually factors, and lately we have had issues there beyond what SB level teams usually show. We have the defense to win it all, no question. If the offense doesn't pick it up a bit, can we still win it? Like others, I have growing doubts.

 

[flyerhawk]

K, but he leads all QB in fumbles/ fumbles lost. And a lot of them aren't blindside hits he couldn't be ready for.

The two biggest knocks on him are those turnovers and how slow he is to progress through his reads and make decisions.

He has addressed and admitted to having to work on both.

I don't expect him to eliminate either, just do better at both. Turnovers happen and plays can look strained. Knock the frequency off both down 30% even and he's suddenly being talked about more in the top tier of QB's.

He makes enough elite plays to be a franchise starting QB in the NFL. I hope he continues to grow and reduce his mistakes to be considered one of the top QBs in the league.

I agree. If he can cut down on the turnovers and improves on his decision making, he would jump a tier as a QB. Maybe he will do that next year but I think it is unlikely to happen this year.

 

[flyerhawk]

Darnold is Darnold? I am not sure what that means or what you are trying to say there. But we have really had 2 different Darnolds this season, and I think that's the main point that I and others are trying to make. He is not playing now (recently) at the same level we saw the first 2 months of the season, and it's concerning as we are 1 game from the start of the post season.

I do agree we are SB contenders. The defense is for sure championship level, and it's keeping us or even winning us games where the offense does little to help for long stretches. But what is usually the difference between contending and winning? QB play? Turnovers? Those are usually factors, and lately we have had issues there beyond what SB level teams usually show. We have the defense to win it all, no question. If the offense doesn't pick it up a bit, can we still win it? Like others, I have growing doubts.

My main point is that the offense hasn't been as dreadful as a lot folks are claiming. It has struggled a lot in the 1st half certainly. But as long as the team is one score of the other team at half time, I feel comfortable that they will win.

IMO, Mac and Kubiak are simply not willing to open up the game in the first half right now. Not sure why exactly. But you can see that the playcalling gets very different, and more effective, when we are in situations where we need to score.

 

[dkmightyhammer]

Really the biggest area that I agree where Sam needs work is just on the QB fumbles when being sacked. But even that stat comes down to luck largely.

And remember when we look at who has the most batted balls or interceptions or sacks or whatever it is important to remember the stats aren't equal for all QB's because they don't all face the same opponents. For example, there are 5 teams that Seattle has played this year that are at the top of the league for passes batted down, and one of those teams (the Rams) we played twice. That's 6 games out of 16, or 38%, against the best pass batting teams in the NFL. I'd say it's normal to expect Sam to have balls batted at a higher rate than some other QB's when facing teams like this. Other QB's may have more batted passes as well if they played these teams.

I really think Sam will be fine going forward. He had 2 really bad turnover days, both against the Rams, but the rest of his games this year compares pretty normally with the rest of the leagues QBs.

 

[WizardHawk]

Darnold is Darnold? I am not sure what that means or what you are trying to say there. But we have really had 2 different Darnolds this season, and I think that's the main point that I and others are trying to make. He is not playing now (recently) at the same level we saw the first 2 months of the season, and it's concerning as we are 1 game from the start of the post season.

I do agree we are SB contenders. The defense is for sure championship level, and it's keeping us or even winning us games where the offense does little to help for long stretches. But what is usually the difference between contending and winning? QB play? Turnovers? Those are usually factors, and lately we have had issues there beyond what SB level teams usually show. We have the defense to win it all, no question. If the offense doesn't pick it up a bit, can we still win it? Like others, I have growing doubts.

Seattle currently has the most points scored in the league this year. The Rams will reclaim that when they reach 14 or more points tonight, but the Seahawks have the second highest points per game average at 29.4 in the NFL.

We all get frustrated because we see a team that sputters a lot early and has so many turnovers, but how much more scoring do you need to see before you think this is a balanced team that doesn't have to rely on the defense to carry them?

 

[WizardHawk]

If scoring is a metric you can grade a unit on then Seattle having both the second best scoring offense and the second best scoring defense seems pretty balanced to me.

The potential is there. Just protect the damned ball.

 

[jerseyhawksfan79]

Obviously the turnovers are bad. We have the 2nd most turnovers in the league. And yet we are 13-3.

We absolutely want to get better on turnovers. But not all turnovers are created equally. 1st half turnovers are not as bad as 2nd half turnovers. 3rd quarter turnovers are not as bad as 4th quarter turnovers.

IMO, I would rather be a team that has had a turnover problem that they've overcome than a team that relies on turnovers to succeed.

That's flawed thinking 1st half turnovers are not as bad as 2nd half turnovers and so on. Sure you can get away with that against bad teams in regular season but playoffs Seattle gives away the ball 1 or 2 times in the first half, that could be nail in the coffin. Darnold's done well but he needs to clean up his turnovers in the playoffs.

 

[flyerhawk]

Seattle currently has the most points scored in the league this year. The Rams will reclaim that when they reach 14 or more points tonight, but the Seahawks have the second highest points per game average at 29.4 in the NFL.

We all get frustrated because we see a team that sputters a lot early and has so many turnovers, but how much more scoring do you need to see before you think this is a balanced team that doesn't have to rely on the defense to carry them?

The 2013 Seahawks scored 417 points. This team scored 470. The 2013 Seahawks scoring differential was 186. This team has a +181 scoring differential.

And for those who think the offense was so much better in the first half, the Hawks scored 29 ppg in the first and they scored 29 ppg in the 2nd half.

I think the reason why I'm pushing back on this narrative so much can be summed up with an anecdote. I was listening to The Ringer's NFL pod today and one of the hosts offhandedly mentioned how the Seahawks looked so bad yesterday really struggled. We won the game by 17 frigging points and the Panthers had fewer than 50 yards passing! For context if we averaged +17 per game we would have a scoring differential of +272 right now!

 

[flyerhawk]

That's flawed thinking 1st half turnovers are not as bad as 2nd half turnovers and so on. Sure you can get away with that against bad teams in regular season but playoffs Seattle gives away the ball 1 or 2 times in the first half, that could be nail in the coffin. Darnold's done well but he needs to clean up his turnovers in the playoffs.

I'm not suggesting that 1st half turnovers are no big deal. But they are absolutely not as bad as 4th quarter turnovers. We all agree that Darnold has to lower his turnovers in the playoffs. If he doesn't it will be very very difficult to win 3 or 4 straight games.

But my biggest concern with Darnold is the same concern I have with most non-elite QBs. How do you perform in crunch time? IMO, he has done well when asked to do so this season.

I'm not sure why the team struggles in the first half in the past 8 or so games. It's not just because of Darnold though.

 

[Screamin12th]

When Darnold and the offense started to regress was when Tory Horton went down.

 

[WizardHawk]

The 2013 Seahawks scored 417 points. This team scored 470. The 2013 Seahawks scoring differential was 186. This team has a +181 scoring differential.

And for those who think the offense was so much better in the first half, the Hawks scored 29 ppg in the first and they scored 29 ppg in the 2nd half.

I think the reason why I'm pushing back on this narrative so much can be summed up with an anecdote. I was listening to The Ringer's NFL pod today and one of the hosts offhandedly mentioned how the Seahawks looked so bad yesterday really struggled. We won the game by 17 frigging points and the Panthers had fewer than 50 yards passing! For context if we averaged +17 per game we would have a scoring differential of +272 right now!

And the seahawks won by 17 on the road at 10a in a game pretty universally considered a very badly officiated game against them.

Take the win and be happy it was a win.

 

[flyerhawk]

And the seahawks won by 17 on the road at 10a in a game pretty universally considered a very badly officiated game against them.

Take the win and be happy it was a win.

Exactly. I get that when you are 12-3 you measured differently but winning a 10:00 am east coast game against a playoff team by 17 points is still pretty far from a struggling performance. It's like they take for granted that this team is unusually good on the road.

 

[flyerhawk]

When Darnold and the offense started to regress was when Tory Horton went down.

I do think that had an impact for sure.

 

[jerseyhawksfan79]

I'm not suggesting that 1st half turnovers are no big deal. But they are absolutely not as bad as 4th quarter turnovers. We all agree that Darnold has to lower his turnovers in the playoffs. If he doesn't it will be very very difficult to win 3 or 4 straight games.

But my biggest concern with Darnold is the same concern I have with most non-elite QBs. How do you perform in crunch time? IMO, he has done well when asked to do so this season.

I'm not sure why the team struggles in the first half in the past 8 or so games. It's not just because of Darnold though.

Still flawed thinking. Turnovers are turnovers regardless of quarter the team is in. First half turnovers throws the offense in funks, extra possessions for the opposing teams to score can bury teams quickly with some to little chance of recovery. Basically it's losing a game in the first half instead of late 4th quarter.

No one is saying Darnold is the sole reason why Seattle sucks in the first half but his decision making has to get better or it's an early exit out of the playoffs.

 

[flyerhawk]

Still flawed thinking. Turnovers are turnovers regardless of quarter the team is in. First half turnovers throws the offense in funks, extra possessions for the opposing teams to score can bury teams quickly with some to little chance of recovery. Basically it's losing a game in the first half instead of late 4th quarter.

I guess we will have to agree to disagree. When you have a turnover in the first half, the team can adjust their gameplan and their decision making may change as well. Again, turnovers are always a bad result. It's just a matter of how bad.

No one is saying Darnold is the sole reason why Seattle sucks in the first half but his decision making has to get better or it's an early exit out of the playoffs.

Sure. But I just don't think that all of his turnovers are because of bad decisions. The fumble on Sunday wasn't a bad decision. Even the pick wasn't a bad decision per se.

 

[MrS]

When Darnold and the offense started to regress was when Tory Horton went down.

It really was, Horton was getting open early in games and defenses were not accounting for him at all.
I think that's at least partly why they traded for shaheed but he hasn't fully acclimated yet.
Next year this offense should be improved with the same exact cast healthy and another year of experience under their belt.
And maybe a new RG and C