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ATL96Steeler
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Tomlin finally gets over the NE hurdle, and I'm gathering he could barely enjoy it an hour, before they shifted to NO...no rest for the weary. The Steelers, 8-5-1 still have a slim 1/2 game margin over BAL in the DIV and 4 seed.
They are paying for their earlier sins (losing @ OAK/DEN) now. We're down to a 2 game season, PIT controls their destiny. Win 2 games and the Steelers repeat as AFCN champs...anything less than that and they are hoping that the Chargers or Browns give them some help.
For the final NFCS opponent, they travel to the Big Easy, to face Drew Brees, and his 12-2 Saints. Having seen a lot of Saints games living in this region, this is one of the more amazing runs for Brees considering what he's working with outside at the WR2/3 spots.
For all that, it's the DEF that has them in this #1 seed spot. Ranked 7th...sounds more impressive than they are from the eye test, but the last two weeks, they've padded those stats on two somewhat inconsistent QBs...they are very talented up front. Maybe as good as BAL...they played pretty much a nickel DEF 80% of the time the last 2 games and a lot of this season since PJ Williams has come back. They feel they are capable of manning up with Lattimore and Eli Apple. Running a 4-2-5 base, the SS has to be a good box player. Will be curious to see if Fichtner/Ben will go old school and dust off Nix, and try to pound at those 2 LBs.
Injuries...Connor (ankle)...Q, they finally moved Gilbert to IR, and freed up a roster spot...Rogers had some impact at least. I guess Heyward/Dupree (knee), and Switzer (ankle), and Edmunds (protocol) are probably still Q. but not showing up on PFR. We'll know more today I think, but it doesn't sound like Heyward or Dupree will miss any time and Connor probably will have to show more than he did last week to play...if he doesn't play this week, if they win and BAL loses, I wouldn't play him next week.
Outlook...Vegas has NO -5.5...the matchup does favor the Saints if the Steelers trot out the heavy zone DEF while rushing 4 or less. Kamara on a LB in space is 5-10 yds every touch...Butler should be looking at some wrinkles to defend him. Need some extra attention on Michael Thomas and some rush on Brees and maybe they keep the Saints in that 21-24 range. Either way, the OFC is going to need more the 17 pts to pull this game out. The Saints best edge player is Cam Jordan, but Sheldon Rankins in the middle is as tough as any DT in the north and several other guys that can wreck a drive with a splash play, TFL, etc.
The best thing for the Steelers here is score early and keep the crowd tempered. I do respect the Saints D, especially in the dome, but imo they are not an elite DEF. If the OL is able to manage the Saints front 4, I like the OFC to put up a better number this week. Butler can't afford to lay down here, he has to bring an attacking DEF down there to win this game. If so, I can see this being a 1 possession game late and a FG either way.
I like their chances, but not very much so I will not post a projected score.
What say you?
They are paying for their earlier sins (losing @ OAK/DEN) now. We're down to a 2 game season, PIT controls their destiny. Win 2 games and the Steelers repeat as AFCN champs...anything less than that and they are hoping that the Chargers or Browns give them some help.
For the final NFCS opponent, they travel to the Big Easy, to face Drew Brees, and his 12-2 Saints. Having seen a lot of Saints games living in this region, this is one of the more amazing runs for Brees considering what he's working with outside at the WR2/3 spots.
For all that, it's the DEF that has them in this #1 seed spot. Ranked 7th...sounds more impressive than they are from the eye test, but the last two weeks, they've padded those stats on two somewhat inconsistent QBs...they are very talented up front. Maybe as good as BAL...they played pretty much a nickel DEF 80% of the time the last 2 games and a lot of this season since PJ Williams has come back. They feel they are capable of manning up with Lattimore and Eli Apple. Running a 4-2-5 base, the SS has to be a good box player. Will be curious to see if Fichtner/Ben will go old school and dust off Nix, and try to pound at those 2 LBs.
Injuries...Connor (ankle)...Q, they finally moved Gilbert to IR, and freed up a roster spot...Rogers had some impact at least. I guess Heyward/Dupree (knee), and Switzer (ankle), and Edmunds (protocol) are probably still Q. but not showing up on PFR. We'll know more today I think, but it doesn't sound like Heyward or Dupree will miss any time and Connor probably will have to show more than he did last week to play...if he doesn't play this week, if they win and BAL loses, I wouldn't play him next week.
Outlook...Vegas has NO -5.5...the matchup does favor the Saints if the Steelers trot out the heavy zone DEF while rushing 4 or less. Kamara on a LB in space is 5-10 yds every touch...Butler should be looking at some wrinkles to defend him. Need some extra attention on Michael Thomas and some rush on Brees and maybe they keep the Saints in that 21-24 range. Either way, the OFC is going to need more the 17 pts to pull this game out. The Saints best edge player is Cam Jordan, but Sheldon Rankins in the middle is as tough as any DT in the north and several other guys that can wreck a drive with a splash play, TFL, etc.
The best thing for the Steelers here is score early and keep the crowd tempered. I do respect the Saints D, especially in the dome, but imo they are not an elite DEF. If the OL is able to manage the Saints front 4, I like the OFC to put up a better number this week. Butler can't afford to lay down here, he has to bring an attacking DEF down there to win this game. If so, I can see this being a 1 possession game late and a FG either way.
I like their chances, but not very much so I will not post a projected score.
What say you?
