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Week 1 vs. Montana State (Ben-Hur)

Cave_Johnson

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As I mentioned in the Sun Belt Preview thread, I'm giving each game this year a different theme based on a 2016 film. I'll get to that part later, but first let's start this season off with a simple question:

What is the worst off season you as a fan can remember?

Well let me tell you, unless you're a fan of UAB, Penn State, or you rooted for SMU in the 80's you ain't got shit on what I've had to deal with the last 7 months.

It all started in February when Idaho's president, Chuck Staben, gave a presentation to the Sun Belt in an attempt to convince the conference to renew Idaho as an affiliate member for two more years. The presentation itself was half-assed, unconvincing, full of errors, and overall resembled something a middle school student would throw together last minute after forgetting they had a project due in an hour. Of course Idaho, along with New Mexico State, was eventually kicked out of the Sun Belt.

That's bad enough, but less than two months later Boise Chuck decided that the best course of action moving forward was to drop the football program down to the Big Sky in 2018. Never mind that every other program in a similar situation has come out strongly in favor of FBS ( see NMSU, EMU, UMass, and ULM). And never mind that NMSU has done research and found that that staying FBS actually saves money. Disregard the fact that the U of I's own research showed that most fans are not in favor of FCS. All that doesn't matter apparently because Chuck Staben is the smartest guy in the room. He knows better than everyone else. Why attempt to see what shakes out over the next year or so as an FBS independent? Why leave any hope? Just give up and drop down as soon as possible. Great idea.

All that sucks. But guess what? There's a cherry on top of this shit sundae. A few weeks back the Idaho State Board Of Education decided that no alcohol will be allowed in tailgating areas. I've already ranted on that, and even though I don't foresee this being enforced 300 miles away from the place where a bunch of autistic dullards met to make the decision, it still pisses me off.

That's enough on that though, let's get to the game.

Ben-Hur is the perfect movie analogue for the upcoming Thursday home opener. This game foreshadows Idaho's return to the Big Sky. And much like Ben-Hur, Idaho's FCS transition will be a return to history that no one wanted or asked for. It's a financial failure waiting to happen, and it's something most people in the country just don't care about.

Anyway Montana State is coming off a 5-6 season which ended with a lopsided loss to rival Montana. Coach Rob Ash was fired soon after the game and his replacement, Jeff Choate, actually has some strong ties to the state of Idaho.

The Bobcats may have lost their starting QB to Oregon but newcomer Tyler Bruggman is no slouch. Once a backup to Luke Falk and Connor Halladay at WSU, MSU's presumed starting QB should have no trouble stepping into the role. Any struggles he may have are sure to be, at least in part, alleviated by the Bobcat running game. MSU returns a lot of talent in the backfield and should once again be a top offense in the Big Sky.

Defensively MSU will likely struggle again. Last season they gave up over 34 PPG and while they have arguably improved, they're still likely to have issues against potent offenses.

Idaho's 2015 team was actually somewhat similar to MSU's last year. Solid offensively with a really terrible defense. In Idaho's case though the defensive issues stemmed mainly from a lack of depth. They were constantly getting worn out in the second half of high scoring games. Depth has certainly improved going into this season. The secondary is fairly deep with Jayshawn Jordan and Jordan Grabski back from injury. Dorian Clark, D.J. Hampton, and Russel Siavi also return from last year's squad.

LB Kaden Ellis is perhaps the best player on defense as a true Sophomore. I'm extremely excited to see this kid play. He may end up being the best defensive player at Idaho since Shiloh Keo.

Offensively Idaho returns nearly everyone from a squad that averaged 30 points a game last season. Elijaah Penny will be the only big loss at tailback, but Aaron Duckworth and Isaiah Saunders have looked strong in camp and will likely fill in as a committee. The offensive line will feature three seniors and everyone except Dezmon Epps ( who missed the last half of the season) returns in the receiving core. Look for WR Callen Hightower, TE Buck Cowan, and TE/WR hybrid Deon Watson to get a lot of looks this season.

Then of course there's Matt Linehan who may make a case for an all-conference selection at QB this year. There's a lot to like on Idaho's offense even if the depth behind Linehan at QB is not great.

Prediction: I have seen a lot of different computer projections on this one and the results range from Idaho by 6 to Idaho by 32. I don't think most of these calculations really know much about the Bobcats however. Most sports sites tend to not be very thorough with FCS coverage. A lot of times FCS ball is completely ignored.

MSU should once again have a great offense and I expect a lot of points in the opener against an Idaho defense looking to find its grove. If Vegas took bets on FCS vs. FBS teams I'd say bet the over.

I see this as being somewhat close in the first half with Idaho pulling away in the second. Montana State likely has a bright future ahead of them, and they could very well take this one if Idaho comes out cocky. That said, it is a rebuilding year for the Bobcats and on paper Idaho has an advantage in size and depth as well as special teams where Idaho will field one of the best punters in the country. MSU may also not have their starting kicker due to domestic violence accusations. That could cause some significant problems.

Final Score:

Idaho 48
MSU 35
 
Last edited:

BoiseStateFan27

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Wow this was a fun read

Looks like the opposite has happened I think Idaho was up 20-7 at one point but now it's 20-17.

Amazing in depth analysis of Montana State though!
 

Cave_Johnson

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Yeah I was certainly off on the prediction. Both offenses and both QBs looked pretty mediocre if not flat out bad in that one. It's a shame someone had to win.

I did nail the special teams part. A badly missed MSU field goal was the difference.
 

BoiseStateFan27

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Yeah I was certainly off on the prediction. Both offenses and both QBs looked pretty mediocre if not flat out bad in that one. It's a shame someone had to win.

I did nail the special teams part. A badly missed MSU field goal was the difference.

week 1 can be odd that way, sometimes teams are a little off offensively.
 
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