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Week 1 lines....

Moab

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Thurs
Buf @ Lar Buf -2.5 o/u 53

Sun
NO @ Atl NO-5.5 o/u 42.5
SF @ Chi SF-7 o/u 44
Bal @ NYJ Bal -7 o/u 44.5
Cle @ Car Car -2.5 o/u 41.5
Phi @ Det Phi -4 o/u 48.5
Ind @ Hou Ind -8 o/u 46
Jax @ Wash Wash -3 o/u 44
NE @ Mia Mia -3 o/u 47
Pitt @ Cin Cin -6.5 o/u 44
GB @ Min GB -1.5 o/u 48
KC @ Az KC -4.5 o/u 53.5
LVR @ LAC LAC -2 o/u 52
NYG @ Tenn Tenn -5.5 o/u 43.5
TB @ Dal TB -1.5 o/u 42

Mon
Den @ Sea Den -6.5 o/u 42

What do you see as best bets....does anything stand out in glaring fashion. What are your best bets.
 

Moab

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Here are my pics...and probably most are wrong....but what the heck. I am not a pro, these are worth what you are paying me for them....which is nothing

Thurs
Buf @ Lar Buf -2.5 o/u 53 Rams...home dog and the under

Sun
NO @ Atl NO-5.5 o/u 42.5 Atlanta ...home dog and these teams usually play close games... under
SF @ Chi SF-7 o/u 44 San Fran...too much for young Chi club... over
Bal @ NYJ Bal -7 o/u 44.5 Balt...probably blow them out...over
Cle @ Car Car -2.5 o/u 41.5 Car...about even without Watson...not getting full 3 at home ... over
Phi @ Det Phi -4 o/u 48.5 Philly... Det will come back, but not enough to cover... under
Ind @ Hou Ind -8 o/u 46 Indy... I don't see Houston staying close... over
Jax @ Wash Wash -3 o/u 44 Jax...Wentz will Wentz, Jax is getting better... under
NE @ Mia Mia -3 o/u 47 NE... I don't think Miami is all that...under
Pitt @ Cin Cin -6.5 o/u 44 Pitt...Cincy wins, Pitt keeps it close... over
GB @ Min GB -1.5 o/u 48 Min...home dog and they win outright... under
KC @ Az KC -4.5 o/u 53.5 Az...KC wins, but doesn't cover... under
LVR @ LAC LAC -2 o/u 52 LAC ... not getting full 3 at home... over
NYG @ Tenn Tenn -5.5 o/u 43.5 Tenn .... Giants are probably not good... over
TB @ Dal TB -1.5 o/u 42 TB... no special reason, other than home and probably better team... over

Mon
Den @ Sea Den -6.5 o/u 42 Denver. Seattle has Geno Smith, what more you want... over
 

Clayton

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That KC line has moved a bit, I see. It was -3 for awhile.

The initial bet that jumps out if SF -7. Bears have a real implosion possibility here if their oline is as bad as people say and the Niners are known for being one of the more physical teams. Fields vs a top LB in the league.

Cleveland within 3 points without a QB on the road and Carolina having Moore and CmC. Man. Not sure Id be bold enough to put money on that but if Baker doesnt win that game he is going to look really bad.
 

Moab

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Week one tends to be a bit of a crapshoot. Most teams play vanilla in preseason and most established vets don't play.

My best bet is for Tennessee to cover against the Giants, then Tampa over Dallas Sunday night. For the early game I'd take Balt over the Jets...
 

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The Chargers line is significantly wrong.
 

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Is it? It’ll be a Raider home game in practice, no?
+/-3 is the biggest value % number in NFL spreads. A winning margin of exactly 2 is valued at around a 2% probability. A winning margin of exactly 3 is valued at around a 9% probability. In any case the line is nearer to 3½ than 3. A spread of +/- 2 indicates a money line around -128; +108. A borderline 3½ spread indicates a money line around -178; +156, (which is what the Chargers line is).

Not to be funny but it was the only line that looked off, so I double-checked. The posted line is wrong. A 4½ to 5½ error wouldn't be massive, (-205 compared to -225). However, any error involving +/-3 is going to be a 9% error.
 

Moab

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Moab

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+/-3 is the biggest value % number in NFL spreads. A winning margin of exactly 2 is valued at around a 2% probability. A winning margin of exactly 3 is valued at around a 9% probability. In any case the line is nearer to 3½ than 3. A spread of +/- 2 indicates a money line around -128; +108. A borderline 3½ spread indicates a money line around -178; +156, (which is what the Chargers line is).

Not to be funny but it was the only line that looked off, so I double-checked. The posted line is wrong. A 4½ to 5½ error wouldn't be massive, (-205 compared to -225). However, any error involving +/-3 is going to be a 9% error.

the money line on LAC is -175 and LVR is +150 with the line at LAC -3

 

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Yes, it's -3 and it's possible that it's a typo....with the 3 being right next to the 2...
I didn't say that it wasn't a typo, nor was I blaming you for the mistake. Spell-checkers don't spot numerical errors so they're notoriously hard to spot. If you had also posted the money lines I could have immediately picked up that it was indeed just a typo.

I used the words "significantly wrong" because whilst 2 and 3 are as close together as 8 and 9 their mathematical evaluation differences in gambling terms are World's apart.

Some books currently have the Chargers at -3 with odds around -123 with the Raiders +3 at +103. Other books have a line with the Chargers -3½ with odds around +104 and the Raiders +3½ at -116. I hope you're not suggesting the line is Chargers -3 -110, Raiders +3 -110 because that would be incorrect.

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nfl-football/?date=2022-09-11

https://www.bookmakersreview.com/nfl/odds/
 

Moab

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I didn't say that it wasn't a typo, nor was I blaming you for the mistake. Spell-checkers don't spot numerical errors so they're notoriously hard to spot. If you had also posted the money lines I could have immediately picked up that it was indeed just a typo.

I used the words "significantly wrong" because whilst 2 and 3 are as close together as 8 and 9 their mathematical evaluation differences in gambling terms are World's apart.

Some books currently have the Chargers at -3 with odds around -123 with the Raiders +3 at +103. Other books have a line with the Chargers -3½ with odds around +104 and the Raiders +3½ at -116. I hope you're not suggesting the line is Chargers -3 -110, Raiders +3 -110 because that would be incorrect.

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nfl-football/?date=2022-09-11

https://www.bookmakersreview.com/nfl/odds/

All good...the link I posted has Raider +3 100 and Chargers -3 120
 

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All good...the link I posted has Raider +3 100 and Chargers -3 120
Agreed. I think that's the best available line price for the Chargers. US bricks and mortar books have the line at 3½ -110 either side, (which would equate to a valuation of about Chargers -3 at -135; Raiders +3 at +115).
 

sonnyblack65

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Here are my pics...and probably most are wrong....but what the heck. I am not a pro, these are worth what you are paying me for them....which is nothing

Thurs
Buf @ Lar Buf -2.5 o/u 53 Rams...home dog and the under

Sun
NO @ Atl NO-5.5 o/u 42.5 Atlanta ...home dog and these teams usually play close games... under
SF @ Chi SF-7 o/u 44 San Fran...too much for young Chi club... over
Bal @ NYJ Bal -7 o/u 44.5 Balt...probably blow them out...over
Cle @ Car Car -2.5 o/u 41.5 Car...about even without Watson...not getting full 3 at home ... over
Phi @ Det Phi -4 o/u 48.5 Philly... Det will come back, but not enough to cover... under
Ind @ Hou Ind -8 o/u 46 Indy... I don't see Houston staying close... over
Jax @ Wash Wash -3 o/u 44 Jax...Wentz will Wentz, Jax is getting better... under
NE @ Mia Mia -3 o/u 47 NE... I don't think Miami is all that...under
Pitt @ Cin Cin -6.5 o/u 44 Pitt...Cincy wins, Pitt keeps it close... over
GB @ Min GB -1.5 o/u 48 Min...home dog and they win outright... under
KC @ Az KC -4.5 o/u 53.5 Az...KC wins, but doesn't cover... under
LVR @ LAC LAC -2 o/u 52 LAC ... not getting full 3 at home... over
NYG @ Tenn Tenn -5.5 o/u 43.5 Tenn .... Giants are probably not good... over
TB @ Dal TB -1.5 o/u 42 TB... no special reason, other than home and probably better team... over

Mon
Den @ Sea Den -6.5 o/u 42 Denver. Seattle has Geno Smith, what more you want... over
I like TB , GB on the road and Wash
 

molsaniceman

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Yes, it's -3 and it's possible that it's a typo....with the 3 being right next to the 2...
actually it started at 4 and now is 3.5

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