Verlander retiring at season's end - is 200 the new 300?

[bigred472]

The recent news dropping of Verlander's pending retirement got me to thinking: will there ever be another 300 game winner? Innings pitched and quality starts seem to be the new golden stats for MLB pitchers. If he averages 20-25 quality starts in a season, you are most likely looking at a $300 million arm.

From the first season that baseball stats were compiled, 1876, up thru 2005, a span of 130 years, baseball had at least one 20-game winner every season except for seasons shortened by strikes. Since 2006, a span of 20 years, there have only been 31 20-game winners with 9 seasons in which there were only one or no 20-game winners. Last year, for the first time ever in MLB history, the sport went two consecutive full seasons without a 20-game winner. And unless some pitcher goes on a tear (doubtful this late in the season), we will see a third consecutive season with no 20-game winner.

Under current popular strategy of how to manage a starting pitcher, a staff ace or #2 in the rotation may average only 5 2/3rds to 6 1/3rds innings per outing. That leaves 8-10 out to the bullpen which has lead to a rash of no decisions by starting pitchers, and cuts down significantly on the their opportunity to secure a win.

15 wins is the new 20 wins. 13 wins is the new 17-18 wins. A pitcher would have to average 15 wins a year over 20 years to reach 300 career wins. Ain't. Gonna. Happen. And it's doubtful we even see another 250 game winner unless advances in sports arm health and a radical change in current strategy are employed.

One thing I can see that could change things: I could see some young phenom come off a college campus as a guy who throws 80% knuckle balls, racks up a 120-135 pitch count due to the minimal pressure on his pitching arm, and is trusted to get thru a lineup 3-4 times. Under those conditions he could average 21-23 outs per game. If he is successful and younger guys start copying his style, then we may see a return to 300 game winners. Otherwise, I don't see it happening. No active player right now, regardless of age, has a prayer of getting there.

IMO, this is nothing more than a passing fad. Mainly to help the team ownership control costs. And to a lesser extent giving more leverage to the managers. If you go into negotiating a new contract and the owners go--"Hell dude, you only won 15 games a year over the last 3 years. You ain't worth 45 million per year." That will last till some team offers that amount of money with the stipulation that "he'd better earn it". Then 20 wins per year will come flying back. It's already apparent that the weakest part of many teams is their bullpen because there aren't that many quality relivers out there. Then you get back to square one. Starting pitchers that can go the distance.

 

[#1BostonFan]

It’ll be rare to ever see a 200 game winner. Will probably stop seeing that with the new generation of pitchers coming up

 

[Stakesarehigh]

Like folks said, a better question is to look at the number of innings pitched by Verlander and ask if anyone will come close.

Given I've been able to watch a majority of games by both Verlander and Skubal, it's like night and day between the two given JV was a ironhorse who could go 110 pitches like it was nothing and was usually a lock to go at least 7 innings, if not 8 or 9. I feel a big value of an ace is making it so you don't even have to worry about the bullpen and it seems modern pitchers just can't do this anymore. It kinda makes me value them less in a sense.

>Maybe they are just brittle bitches?

I assume it's the youth ball conditioning them to be unable to go. Kids are shut down after 40/50 pitches no matter what and then can't pitch again after that for another five days or something. No one's even allowed to go deep in a game even if they could.

Kids? With the travel ball and select grind they play this just isn't true

 

[Stakesarehigh]

IMO, this is nothing more than a passing fad. Mainly to help the team ownership control costs. And to a lesser extent giving more leverage to the managers. If you go into negotiating a new contract and the owners go--"Hell dude, you only won 15 games a year over the last 3 years. You ain't worth 45 million per year." That will last till some team offers that amount of money with the stipulation that "he'd better earn it". Then 20 wins per year will come flying back. It's already apparent that the weakest part of many teams is their bullpen because there aren't that many quality relivers out there. Then you get back to square one. Starting pitchers that can go the distance.

No

It's all driven by advanced stats, the third time a batter sees a pitcher the better his odds by a lot, the forth time even worse.

Pitches per start is down for that reason moreso than pitcher fatigue, but the aces are pitching more pitches per inning due to swing and miss rates.

 

[Stakesarehigh]

Bob Gibson

• 1st: .212 AVG, .282 OBP, .296 SLG, .578 OPS
• 2nd: .221 AVG, .289 OBP, .316 SLG, .605 OPS
• 3rd: .244 AVG, .309 OBP, .344 SLG, .653 OPS

Here are Steve Carlton's:

• 1st: .219 AVG, .286 OBP, .320 SLG, .606 OPS
• 2nd: .244 AVG, .311 OBP, .370 SLG, .682 OPS
• 3rd: .254 AVG, .317 OBP, .385 SLG, .702 OPS

Here are Randy Johnson's:

• 1st: .204 AVG, .282 OBP, .332 SLG, .614 OPS
• 2nd: .222 AVG, .298 OBP, .352 SLG, .650 OPS
• 3rd: .239 AVG, .313 OBP, .387 SLG, .700 OPS

Here are Justin Verlander's:

• 1st: .215 AVG, .277 OBP, .350 SLG, .626 OPS
• 2nd: .223 AVG, .283 OBP, .352 SLG, .625 OPS
• 3rd: .246 AVG, .296 OBP, .401 SLG, .697 OPS

Some of the GOATS. Obviously in Johnson, Gibson and JVs case their third time through is still above league average, but Carlton was actually roughly league average, and we are talking one of the best ever.

 

[Edonidd]

30 years ago the scouting report for the next game was "Johnson is pitching next game. He's a fastball pitcher, but does have a nasty curve."

Today its: "Johnson is pitching next game. He throws a 2 seam fastball 73% of the first pitches against righties. Here's 7 videos of his wind up and release. Here's a HD closeup of his grip as he's releasing. 91-93 mph. He also mixes in a curve if he's ahead in the count. Here's videos of that. He has a 3 seam fastball but tends to tip it off with this move. Here's videos of that."

A pitcher could go more innings because he didn't always have to be 100%. Now not only do pitchers have to go hard every pitch of every inning. So they do tire out faster. But also these hitters are better prepared to make them pay if they do fall off at all. So the hook comes quicker.

Yeah, they appear more brittle because there are more injuries. But they're also training their body to the limits and then still pushing those limits every pitch.

You can buy a semi truck and they can drive 1,000,000 miles or more before breaking down. But they go 72 mph. Or you can buy and F1 car it goes 200 mph. But it's going to break down completely af5er like 600 miles and need a completely new engine. You can't have both.

 

[bigred472]

No

It's all driven by advanced stats, the third time a batter sees a pitcher the better his odds by a lot, the forth time even worse.

Pitches per start is down for that reason moreso than pitcher fatigue, but the aces are pitching more pitches per inning due to swing and miss rates.

Horseshit. Show the current stats for the good pitchers. Are they close to the same?

 

[Stakesarehigh]

Horseshit.

The advanced stats are right there for you man.

3rd time through batters OPS increase to .765. from a league average around .711.

Which btw OPS is hardly in the worst place it's ever been.

 

[bigred472]

The advanced stats are right there for you man.

3rd time through batters OPS increase to .765. from a league average around .711.

Which btw OPS is hardly in the worst place it's ever been.

Show current numbers for current pitchers.

 

[wilwhite]

I used to love baseball.

 

[Stakesarehigh]

Show current numbers for current pitchers.

For the 10-year period from 2016 through 2025, for example, here's how MLB starting pitchers have performed when facing the opposing batting order each time in a game:

• 1st time through: .243 AVG, .309 OBP, .404 SLG, .713 OPS
• 2nd time through: .255 AVG, .318 OBP, .428 SLG, .747 OPS
• 3rd time through: .265 AVG, .329 OBP, .452 SLG, .780 OPS

 

[Stakesarehigh]

I misspoke. It's .780

 

[PolarVortex]

IMO, this is nothing more than a passing fad. Mainly to help the team ownership control costs. And to a lesser extent giving more leverage to the managers. If you go into negotiating a new contract and the owners go--"Hell dude, you only won 15 games a year over the last 3 years. You ain't worth 45 million per year." That will last till some team offers that amount of money with the stipulation that "he'd better earn it". Then 20 wins per year will come flying back. It's already apparent that the weakest part of many teams is their bullpen because there aren't that many quality relivers out there. Then you get back to square one. Starting pitchers that can go the distance.

How has it controlled costs? Staff aces are recording less career wins than in any other era in baseball, but at the same time are making more money, even factoring in the rising cost of living and inflation, than ever before. Those two facts are not compatible with your theory.

 

[PolarVortex]

No

It's all driven by advanced stats, the third time a batter sees a pitcher the better his odds by a lot, the forth time even worse.

Nailed it.

Pitches per start is down for that reason moreso than pitcher fatigue, but the aces are pitching more pitches per inning due to swing and miss rates.

 

[Stakesarehigh]

I used to love baseball.

Baseball was a more beautiful sport when they just lined up and played. No ridiculous shifts,.no absurd spin rate. No 47 pitchers in a game. I will grant you that.

 

[Stakesarehigh]

Nailed it.

I will say having looked at it. The 4th time through the pitchers actually win out. But you're talking a pitcher who is locked in for the day and is ramping up to get out of there. And it less than one percent of all pitches thrown.

 

[PolarVortex]

Baseball was a more beautiful sport when they just lined up and played. No ridiculous shifts,.no absurd spin rate. No 47 pitchers in a game. I will grant you that.

Sports evolve. You have to accept that. The winning strategy and talent selection for basketball and football games are not what they were 40 years ago either.

 

[Stakesarehigh]

Sports evolve. You have to accept that. The winning strategy and talent selection for basketball and football games are not what they were 40 years ago either.

No doubt. I accept it. The batters swing for the fences and draw walks because the analytics the fielders have can pretty well predict where they hit. One would say change your stroke up, easier said then done with the stuff these pitchers have.

the velocity now vs 20 years ago is crazy

 

[PolarVortex]

I will say having looked at it. The 4th time through the pitchers actually win out. But you're talking a pitcher who is locked in for the day and is ramping up to get out of there. And it less than one percent of all pitches thrown.

Yeah, but the fourth time is going to be rare because in most cases, the pitcher's pitch count is going to be 90+. How deep in the lineup does he go the 4th run and is he righty vs lefty matchups favoring him if the fourth run is a partial one?

Side note: I think Marichal once pitched a 9 inning shutout in which he gave up 13 hits.

 

[PolarVortex]

No doubt. I accept it. The batters swing for the fences and draw walks because the analytics the fielders have can pretty well predict where they hit. One would say change your stroke up, easier said then done with the stuff these pitchers have.

the velocity now vs 20 years ago is crazy

I absolutely hate the 3-outcome approach at the plate, but I understand why it is popular. You take a guy like Arraez. He hits for a high average every year. But then you look at his run production and it is unimpressive. Maybe his run production isn't entirely his fault, but nevertheless, the hits aren't really paying off. Over the last four years Arraez has averaged 225 times on base via hit or walk, but has only averaged 77 runs scored.