Vance trade advice

[HaroldSeattle]

That was what he said in our pre-trade discussion.

If he rejects Shepherd, I'm done.
Not breaking the bank for Vance.

You is your present starting TE ?

 

[averagejoe]

You is your present starting TE ?

Andrews (BAL), Eifert (CIN) & LaCosse (NE)

 

[averagejoe]

Let me add that my view of TE is a notch above kickers.
That said, if Eifert is healthy, he's a top 5 TE. And I think Andrews is being undervalued, particularly on a Ravens team where there are a lot of question marks on WR expectations. I see him as the beneficiary of that.

 

[leftypower]

That was what he said in our pre-trade discussion.
If he rejects Shepherd, I'm done.
Not breaking the bank for Vance.

Personally, with what you have at TE, I would not trade Shepard for Vance. .... yes, lots of PIT targets up for grabs but QB's don't normally change their spots and Ben has never been big on favoring a TE over WR and he's had some pretty good ones in the past. Yes, it could happen but with your valuation of TE's being bottom-feeders anyway and high opinions on what you already have - I'd pull that deal off the table now. ....

 

[averagejoe]

Personally, with what you have at TE, I would not trade Shepard for Vance. .... yes, lots of PIT targets up for grabs but QB's don't normally change their spots and Ben has never been big on favoring a TE over WR and he's had some pretty good ones in the past. Yes, it could happen but with your valuation of TE's being bottom-feeders anyway and high opinions on what you already have - I'd pull that deal off the table now. ....

I'm glad you said that.
Cause I'm not sure I buy all of the Vance hype either. Sure, I see there are a lot of targets up for grabs, but IMO when an elite player leaves, the next guy up doesn't always produce to that level. Generally, the team gets more players involved instead of redirecting all if the targets to the next man standing.

 

[Barilko]

Do maybe 2 for 2

 

[Chef99]

I'm glad you said that.
Cause I'm not sure I buy all of the Vance hype either. Sure, I see there are a lot of targets up for grabs, but IMO when an elite player leaves, the next guy up doesn't always produce to that level. Generally, the team gets more players involved instead of redirecting all if the targets to the next man standing.

I'm with Lefty on this one. Not sure i'm with all the Vance hype, and I kinda like Andrews. I'd pull the shepard deal as well. Don't think I would've offered Pettis for him either.

 

[averagejoe]

@Chef99

 

[Bandit]

Let me add that my view of TE is a notch above kickers.
That said, if Eifert is healthy, he's a top 5 TE. And I think Andrews is being undervalued, particularly on a Ravens team where there are a lot of question marks on WR expectations. I see him as the beneficiary of that.

If you think that highly of the guys you have, then I think you're wasting your time trying to get Vance because he's not going to be any better than where you view the guys you have. Personally I think you're dreaming if you think Eifert is still a top 5 TE even if healthy, but if you see him that way then why even try and trade for Vance? I'd rather keep the wide receiver depth.

 

[averagejoe]

why even try and trade for Vance?

It's not like I haven't been wrong before.

 

[leftypower]

I'm glad you said that.
Cause I'm not sure I buy all of the Vance hype either. Sure, I see there are a lot of targets up for grabs, but IMO when an elite player leaves, the next guy up doesn't always produce to that level. Generally, the team gets more players involved instead of redirecting all if the targets to the next man standing.

Well, in honesty, I don't think Vance IS the next guy up. ... it's likely Moncrief or Washington or ??? but I've been wrong before. .... many times.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

I'm glad you said that.
Cause I'm not sure I buy all of the Vance hype either. Sure, I see there are a lot of targets up for grabs, but IMO when an elite player leaves, the next guy up doesn't always produce to that level. Generally, the team gets more players involved instead of redirecting all if the targets to the next man standing.

Yes the targets will get spread around. Certainly agree with that Joe. Between Brown and Jesse James that leaves 225 targets up for grabs.


If those targets get divided between Moncrief/Washington/McDonald and some to JuJu ( who had a massive 166 targets ) that's about 50 targets a piece increase on average. McDonald had 73 targets last year, that type of increase would/should make him way more valuable then last season. Course the "but" is he usually misses games due to injury annually.
The WR position other then JuJu will most likely be a committee unless or until one separates himself from the pack IMO. Right now Moncrief seems to be in the lead.

 

[leftypower]

Yes the targets will get spread around. Certainly agree with that Joe. Between Brown and Jesse James that leaves 202 targets up for grabs.
Brown 169
James 33
If those targets get divided between Moncrief/Washington/McDonald and some to JuJu ( who had a massive 166 targets ) that's about 50 targets a piece increase on average. McDonald had 73 targets last year, that type of increase would/should make him way more valuable then last season. Course the "but" is he usually misses games due to injury annually.
The WR position other then JuJu will most likely be a committee unless or until one separates himself from the pack IMO. Right now Moncrief seems to be in the lead.

Well said Harold - thing is, in Joe's case, he's higher than most on what he already has - Shepard would be a hell of a high price for 'another TE' even if he proves to be better than though he already has. If he could've gotten him for one of those other WR's - darn right I'd do it.

 

[averagejoe]

This discussion helped.
It does make me wonder: Ben has been in this league a long time and is an excellent downfield passer. He really has limited his passes to the TE position. So I wanted to see the numbers:

Since 2006, Ben, in 190 games, has completed 3696 passes to the TE and WR.
869 completions to the TE, or 24% which translates to 4.6 TE receptions per game.
2827 completions to the WR, or 76% which translates to 14.9 WR receptions per game.


Leopards don't change their spots.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

This discussion helped.
It does make me wonder: Ben has been in this league a long time and is an excellent downfield passer. He really has limited his passes to the TE position. So I wanted to see the numbers:

Since 2006, Ben, in 190 games, has completed 3696 passes to the TE and WR.
869 completions to the TE, or 24% which translates to 4.6 TE receptions per game.
2827 completions to the WR, or 76% which translates to 14.9 WR receptions per game.


Leopards don't change their spots.

Well to be fair at least 2 WR are in a play ever play, often times 3 WRs so it stands to reason they get the lions share of completed passes. Also having Brown thru his prime tilts things towards the WR. All in all 24% doesn't sound all that bad off hand but then I've done no research.

 

[averagejoe]

Well to be fair at least 2 WR are in a play ever play, often times 3 WRs so it stands to reason they get the lions share of completed passes. Also having Brown thru his prime tilts things towards the WR. All in all 24% doesn't sound all that bad off hand but then I've done no research.

True. Good point.
Keep in mind I did a search on completions and not targets.
I figured that searching targets would really skew the WR numbers.

I should throw out the disclaimer that while I used Ben's 190 games, the TE and WR reception numbers include games where Ben may not have been the QB. (Siphoning that data would have taken a lot longer.)

 

[HaroldSeattle]

 

[HaroldSeattle]

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Looking at the stats WRs obviously get more targets. As Te go McDonald was middle of the pack for targets. Well last year at least. Think he's sure to climb up in targets this year if and that's a big if he can stay healthy.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Food for thought Joe. 225 targets up for grads which works out to a little over 14 per game. If McDonald can just get 3 of those 14 his target totals would be
right behind the elite 3 TEs.