updated Top 68- March 11th

[rmilia1]

1. Kentucky
2. Villanova
3. Duke
4. Virginia
5. Wisconsin
6. Arizona
7. Gonzaga
8. Kansas
9. Maryland
10. Iowa State
11Oklahoma
12. Baylor
13. UNI
14. Notre Dame
15. Louisville
16. West Virginia
17. UNC
18. Utah
19. Georgetown
20. Butler
21. Arkansas
22. Wichita State
23. SMU
24. Iowa
25. Providence
26. Michigan State
27. SDSU
28. St Johns
29. Ohio State
30. Cincinnati
31. Oregon
32. Dayton
33. Xavier
34. VCU
35. NC State
36. LSU
37. Davidson
38. Georgia
39. OK State
40. Boise State
41. Colorado State
42. Texas
43. Ole Miss
44. Purdue
45. Temple
46.. Indiana
47. BYU
48. Stephen F Austin
49. Wofford
50. Valpo
51. La Tech
52. Yale
53. Central Michigan
54. UC Davis
55. Georgia State
56. Eastern Washington
57. Northeastern
58. NC Central
59. North Dakota State
60. Belmont
61. New Mexico State
62. Albany
63. Coastal Carolina
64. Manhattan
65. Texas Southern
66. North Florida
67. Lafayette
68. Robert Morris

- First 8 out- Old Dominion, Texas A&M, UCLA, Miami, Tulsa, Illinois, Stanford, Buffalo

 

[gordontrue]

1 week and 20 hours till the tourney tips off!!!

(first four doesn't count)

 

[kramer1]

1 week and 20 hours till the tourney tips off!!!

(first four doesn't count)

Tell that to Dayton

 

[rmilia1]

I dont mind the first 4 games. They are kind of like an appetizer for the real deal. Plus in a few of the years teams that have come out of those games have made nice runs including 1 to the Final 4.

 

[uncfan103]

Hopefully the committee can find a way to get Murray State in the dance. I know the standard numbers don't favor them but when looking at numbers with common sense the argument can be made. They're 12-3 against RPI 51-200 with one bad loss (opening day!). They've had one loss (to RPI 109) since December. If you look at their record against RPI 50-200 they're competitive with all other bubble teams. It's a shame they've most likely missed the tournament.

Record vs. teams with an RPI between 50-200
Stephen F. Austin - 8-0 + a bad loss
Old Dominion - 11-5 + a bad loss
BYU - 13-5
Murray State - 12-3 + a bad loss (10-1 since December with the loss being to RPI 109)
Illinois - 10-6
UCLA - 11-5
Miami - 11-5
Buffalo - 12-6 + a bad loss
Temple - 6-2
Davidson - 9-3
Cincinnati -7-3 + 2 bad losses


And, the reason I'm looking at these numbers is because it's the only comparable parts of their schedule and I think choosing to give more weight to teams with an RPI between 50-100 than 100-150 because their isn't enough of a difference in these teams to matter. I think a big reason for the difference in the RPI is their schedule, conference affiliation, and it doesn't have much to do with being a better team.

Georgia state, St. Mary's, UTEP, Central Michigan, Clemson, South Carolina, Toledo, Northeastern, etc are not notably better, or more significant wins than Florida State, NC Central, Chattanooga, Georgia Southern, Pepperdine, Belmont, Evansville, Rutgers, Manhattan, etc.

 

[rmilia1]

My main problem with Muray State is that if you are from a low to mid major and you think you are going to have a good team you absolutely HAVE to schedule OOC. Buffalo had a top 75 OOC SOS, Old Dominion had a top 40 OOC SOS, BYU had a top 25 OOC SOS. Murray States was 215. Thats just not good enough when you are taling comparing who deserves to be in and who doesnt

 

[TrollyMcTroller]

My main problem with Muray State is that if you are from a low to mid major and you think you are going to have a good team you absolutely HAVE to schedule OOC. Buffalo had a top 75 OOC SOS, Old Dominion had a top 40 OOC SOS, BYU had a top 25 OOC SOS. Murray States was 215. Thats just not good enough when you are taling comparing who deserves to be in and who doesnt

Agreed. And if you simply can't get a decent schedule OOC, then you have ZERO margin for error.

 

[uncfan103]

My main problem with Muray State is that if you are from a low to mid major and you think you are going to have a good team you absolutely HAVE to schedule OOC. Buffalo had a top 75 OOC SOS, Old Dominion had a top 40 OOC SOS, BYU had a top 25 OOC SOS. Murray States was 215. Thats just not good enough when you are taling comparing who deserves to be in and who doesnt

I'm sure they tried. It's pretty difficult for Murray State to find teams to play. And even then if you're playing top teams in November not at full strength that's not something that is going to be beneficial. My biggest thing is that they could have played 5 top 25 teams in November lost them all and it would have helped them. How silly.

I know if I were scheduling at UNC i'd schedule games against Buffalo and Old Dominion before Murray State.

 

[Texas Jefe]

Agreed. And if you simply can't get a decent schedule OOC, then you have ZERO margin for error.

yeah, they HAD to win that last game.

Kind of a shame, I watched a handful of their games (Texas had a guy transfer there, so I just wanted to see where he was going). Watched that left-handed shooting guy play well, and the team was fun watch.

 

[rmilia1]

I'm sure they tried. It's pretty difficult for Murray State to find teams to play. And even then if you're playing top teams in November not at full strength that's not something that is going to be beneficial. My biggest thing is that they could have played 5 top 25 teams in November lost them all and it would have helped them. How silly.

I know if I were scheduling at UNC i'd schedule games against Buffalo and Old Dominion before Murray State.

SOS is easy to figure out. There is a reason the same mid majors get bids many years. All it is is an average. You dont need to play 4 or 5 Top 25 teams, you just need to not play shitty teams. You are better off playing Illinois State and Minnesota than you are playing Kentucky and Alcorn State. You dont need to schedule GREAT teams, you just need to schedule a few good teams and alot of average ones. Playing bottom tier major conference teams helps even if they suck and those are games you can win. Like ODU scheduled Richmond, LSU, Illinois State, VCU, Georgia State.. That is a top 40 OOC SOS. Doesnt seem like much right?? Those are all games Murray State could get if they wanted them,

 

[TrollyMcTroller]

SOS is easy to figure out. There is a reason the same mid majors get bids many years. All it is is an average. You dont need to play 4 or 5 Top 25 teams, you just need to not play shitty teams. You are better off playing Illinois State and Minnesota than you are playing Kentucky and Alcorn State. You dont need to schedule GREAT teams, you just need to schedule a few good teams and alot of average ones. Playing bottom tier major conference teams helps even if they suck and those are games you can win. Like ODU scheduled Richmond, LSU, Illinois State, VCU, Georgia State.. That is a top 40 OOC SOS. Doesnt seem like much right?? Those are all games Murray State could get if they wanted them,

I agree with you, but the problem with that is scheduling those teams. LSU and Illinois State etc. don't want to schedule a lot of those games because there isn't much reward, but a ton of risk for them. The demand for games like that exceeds the supply.

 

[rmilia1]

I agree with you, but the problem with that is scheduling those teams. LSU and Illinois State etc. don't want to schedule a lot of those games because there isn't much reward, but a ton of risk for them. The demand for games like that exceeds the supply.

Oh I know but they could do it if they wanted. There are plenty of teams needing to fill schedules and while playing a team like Murray State isnt a high reward for teams it certainly isnt a high penalty for them either. You can schedule other mid majors or low major power teams and have a good SOS. You dont even need LSU ( or that type team ). What you dont need in the OOC are 2 SWAC teams. Now Murray was unlucky in that a few of their OOC scheduled teams had way worse than normal years ( Houston, Middle Tennessee, Southern Illinois, Western Kentucky ) but that is part of the breaks.

 

[TrollyMcTroller]

Oh I know but they could do it if they wanted. There are plenty of teams needing to fill schedules and while playing a team like Murray State isnt a high reward for teams it certainly isnt a high penalty for them either. You can schedule other mid majors or low major power teams and have a good SOS. You dont even need LSU ( or that type team ). What you dont need in the OOC are 2 SWAC teams. Now Murray was unlucky in that a few of their OOC scheduled teams had way worse than normal years ( Houston, Middle Tennessee, Southern Illinois, Western Kentucky ) but that is part of the breaks.

Agreed. I think the only thing I would add is that it's not a high penalty on paper if you lose to the Racers, but the perception in general is it's a bad loss (especially if it's a "power conference" team that lost) Get a room full of RPI haters (you won't have to look hard) and say "Kansas" and see how many people start bitching about the Temple loss, and Temple is waaaaaay better than Murray State.

 

[uncfan103]

SOS is easy to figure out. There is a reason the same mid majors get bids many years. All it is is an average. You dont need to play 4 or 5 Top 25 teams, you just need to not play shitty teams. You are better off playing Illinois State and Minnesota than you are playing Kentucky and Alcorn State. You dont need to schedule GREAT teams, you just need to schedule a few good teams and alot of average ones. Playing bottom tier major conference teams helps even if they suck and those are games you can win. Like ODU scheduled Richmond, LSU, Illinois State, VCU, Georgia State.. That is a top 40 OOC SOS. Doesnt seem like much right?? Those are all games Murray State could get if they wanted them,

Georgia State and those teams are more likely to schedule ODU than Murray State because of Murray States history. And, you're better off as Murray state going 0-5 against top 25 teams and doing good against everyone else because it boost your SOS and Rpi drastically and you still end up 0-5 against top 25 teams like all other power conference bubble teams

 

[rmilia1]

Georgia State and those teams are more likely to schedule ODU than Murray State because of Murray States history. And, you're better off as Murray state going 0-5 against top 25 teams and doing good against everyone else because it boost your SOS and Rpi drastically and you still end up 0-5 against top 25 teams like all other power conference bubble teams

Actually Murray State is the exact team teams like Georgia State are looking to schedule. Mid majors that want to have good RPI's are looking to play other middies that have good RPI's. Thats actually why the bracketbuster was invented. Murray could have their pick of the litter as it pertains to those games and they did try to schedule some of them this year, the teams they scheduled just had down years. Its not a perfect science obviously as no one knows what the season holds before it starts but scheduling isnt tough to figure out ESPECIALLY for mid to low major traditional powers like Murray State. 1 or 2 middle to bottom tier major teams, 7 or 8 other middies and a few low major traditionals. Gonzaga had this program figured out a long time ago ( before they were a national power ), teams like UNI, Wichita, Xavier, Temple have followed suit and now some of them have been rewarded with inclusion in better leagues and others have great RPI's. You cant tell me its more attractive for teams to schedule UNI than it is Murray State yet UNI ended up with games vs Stephen F Austin, Richmond, VCU, South Dakota State to go along with Northwestern, Va Tech and Iowa. Many of the teams you see getting at larges from mid majors do so because they play each other all the damn time. UNI plays George Mason, VCU, Richmond, SDSU, SFA etc quite a bit.

 

[uncfan103]

Actually Murray State is the exact team teams like Georgia State are looking to schedule. Mid majors that want to have good RPI's are looking to play other middies that have good RPI's. Thats actually why the bracketbuster was invented. Murray could have their pick of the litter as it pertains to those games and they did try to schedule some of them this year, the teams they scheduled just had down years. Its not a perfect science obviously as no one knows what the season holds before it starts but scheduling isnt tough to figure out ESPECIALLY for mid to low major traditional powers like Murray State. 1 or 2 middle to bottom tier major teams, 7 or 8 other middies and a few low major traditionals. Gonzaga had this program figured out a long time ago ( before they were a national power ), teams like UNI, Wichita, Xavier, Temple have followed suit and now some of them have been rewarded with inclusion in better leagues and others have great RPI's. You cant tell me its more attractive for teams to schedule UNI than it is Murray State yet UNI ended up with games vs Stephen F Austin, Richmond, VCU, South Dakota State to go along with Northwestern, Va Tech and Iowa. Many of the teams you see getting at larges from mid majors do so because they play each other all the damn time. UNI plays George Mason, VCU, Richmond, SDSU, SFA etc quite a bit.

They scheduled Evansville, who is in the same conference as UNI. They went on the road and beat Evansville, do you know who couldn't do that? UNI. They scheduled Illinois State and won that game. Western Kentucky beat bubble teams Mississippi and Old Dominion but couldn't beat Murray State. It's easy to look and say Murray State sucked scheduling because of the numbers but it's also really easy to say they weren't the same team when they were healthy as they were in the beginning of the year and they would be in the tournament had they agreed to play at Kentucky, UNC and Duke with walk ons and put forth no effort in the game. Fwiw, Murray State really didn't schedule awfully

I'll compare to what your recommended
middle to lower tier major teams (RPI in the 100s?) - Teams like South Carolina and Rutgers
They scheduled Xavier and Illinois State. Teams with RPIs similar to those of bottom major conferences teams like VT, Northwestern, Wake, GT, Penn State, etc.
7-8 "middies"
Evansville
Houston
Portland
Valpo
Drake
MTSU
Western Kentucky

And then factor in the team not being at full strength until December and I feel like they deserve a bid. They won't get it because the outcome of their regular season exhibitions only matter to the teams that lose to them. But oh well. Maybe the system will be fixed somehow, I'm just not sure how it can be fixed. You shouldn't be penalized because teams on your schedule lose too many games and rewarded for getting beat by 50 at a top ten team.

 

[Cincyfan78]

When you play in a crappy conference, you know you have to schedule well outside of the conference.

Easier said than done at times, but if that means you have to go on the road, or don't get a home and home in return...then so be it. A lot of these teams can't get the schedule they want because they think they should get home and home returns. That's never going to work against the big boys. You're going to have to go on the road, and most likely not get a return game.

Find other mid-major teams that are looking to score RPI points and others...that's a mutually benificial match-up. The games are out there to be had, you just have to be willing to admit that you won't get the best deal in the end, but it prevents issues like this from cropping up.