Updated Bracketology 2.18.19

[ericd7633]

East Regional(Washington DC)

1. DUKE(ACC)
16. BUCKNELL(PATRIOT)
- Colonial Life Arena(Columbia, SC)
8. WOFFORD(SO. CON)
9. Baylor

5. Wisconsin
12. BELMONT(OVC)
- SAP Center(San Jose, CA)
4. Iowa State
13. HOFSTRA(CAA)

6. Florida State
11. Seton Hall
- BOK Center(Tulsa, OK)
3. HOUSTON(AAC)
14. TEXAS STATE(SUN BELT)

7. Mississippi State
10. Ohio State
- BOK Center(Tulsa, OK)
2. Kansas
15. NORTHERN KENTUCKY(HORIZON)

South Regional(Louisville, KY)

1. Virginia
16. QUINNIPIAC(MAAC)/NORFOLK STATE(MEAC)
- Colonial Life Arena(Columbia, SC)
8. St. John's
9. WASHINGTON(PAC 12)

5. Iowa
12. VCU(A-10)
- SAP Center(San Jose, CA)
4. Texas Tech
13. NEW MEXICO STATE(WAC)

6. KANSAS STATE(BIG 12)
11. Minnesota
- XL Center(Hartford, CT)
3. Marquette
14. UC-IRVINE(BIG WEST)

7. BUFFALO(MAC)
10. TCU
- Nationwide Arena(Columbus, OH)
2. Kentucky
15. RADFORD(BIG SOUTH)

Midwest Regional(Kansas City, MO)

1. TENNESSEE(SEC)
16. ST. FRANCIS(PA)(NEC)/PRAIRIE VIEW A&M(SWAC)
- Nationwide Arena(Columbus, OH)
8. NC State
9. Oklahoma

5. Maryland
12. Furman
- Vivint Smart Home Arena(SLC, UT)
4. NEVADA(MTN. WEST)
13. VERMONT(AM. EAST)

6. VILLANOVA(BIG EAST)
11. Nebraska/Utah State
- Jacksonville VMA(Jacksonville, FL)
3. North Carolina
14. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE(SUMMIT)

7. Ole Miss
10. LIPSCOMB(A-SUN)
- Wells Fargo Arena(Des Moines, IA)
2. MICHIGAN STATE(B1G)
15. MONTANA(BIG SKY)

West Regional(Anaheim, CA)

1. GONZAGA(WCC)
16. SAM HOUSTON STATE(SOUTHLAND)
- Vivint Smart Home Arena(SLC, UT)
8. Auburn
9. Texas

5. Louisville
12. Alabama/Arizona State
- XL Center(Hartford, CT)
4. Purdue
13. YALE(IVY)

6. Virginia Tech
11. Central Florida
- Jacksonville VMA(Jacksonville, FL)
3. LSU
14. OLD DOMINION(C-USA)

7. Cincinnati
10. Syracuse
- Wells Fargo Arena(Des Moines, IA)
2. Michigan
15. LOYOLA(CH)(MVC)

Bids by Conference:
B1G: 9
ACC: 8
Big 12: 8
SEC: 7
Big East: 4
AAC: 3
Pac 12: 2
Mountain West: 2
Southern Conference: 2

Top 10 "Seed" Curve: Duke, Virginia, Tennessee, Gonzaga, Michigan, Kentucky, Michigan State, Kansas, Houston, Marquette
Last 4 BYES: Seton Hall, Minnesota, Central Florida, Furman
Last 4 IN: Alabama, Nebraska, Utah State, Arizona State
First 4 OUT: Florida, Clemson, Butler, Temple
Next 4 OUT: Davidson, Liberty, UNC-Greensboro, Arkansas

 

[jontaejones]

Can't believe we're 2 weeks away from March.

The 2 and 3 lines are strong this year. If those teams can keep winning, this has the makings of a potential classic.

 

[ericd7633]

Can't believe we're 2 weeks away from March.

The 2 and 3 lines are strong this year. If those teams can keep winning, this has the makings of a potential classic.

I agree. I actually think the field is pretty strong all the way through the 7 seeds. Once you start getting to the 8 line and below, it's just a huge cluster, and not much separation.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

Gophs vs Marquette second round!!

Although I doubt Kstate would be the other team in that section.

 

[huskers1217]

East Regional(Washington DC)

1. DUKE(ACC)
16. BUCKNELL(PATRIOT)
- Colonial Life Arena(Columbia, SC)
8. WOFFORD(SO. CON)
9. Baylor

5. Wisconsin
12. BELMONT(OVC)
- SAP Center(San Jose, CA)
4. Iowa State
13. HOFSTRA(CAA)

6. Florida State
11. Seton Hall
- BOK Center(Tulsa, OK)
3. HOUSTON(AAC)
14. TEXAS STATE(SUN BELT)

7. Mississippi State
10. Ohio State
- BOK Center(Tulsa, OK)
2. Kansas
15. NORTHERN KENTUCKY(HORIZON)

South Regional(Louisville, KY)

1. Virginia
16. QUINNIPIAC(MAAC)/NORFOLK STATE(MEAC)
- Colonial Life Arena(Columbia, SC)
8. St. John's
9. WASHINGTON(PAC 12)

5. Iowa
12. VCU(A-10)
- SAP Center(San Jose, CA)
4. Texas Tech
13. NEW MEXICO STATE(WAC)

6. KANSAS STATE(BIG 12)
11. Minnesota
- XL Center(Hartford, CT)
3. Marquette
14. UC-IRVINE(BIG WEST)

7. BUFFALO(MAC)
10. TCU
- Nationwide Arena(Columbus, OH)
2. Kentucky
15. RADFORD(BIG SOUTH)

Midwest Regional(Kansas City, MO)

1. TENNESSEE(SEC)
16. ST. FRANCIS(PA)(NEC)/PRAIRIE VIEW A&M(SWAC)
- Nationwide Arena(Columbus, OH)
8. NC State
9. Oklahoma

5. Maryland
12. Furman
- Vivint Smart Home Arena(SLC, UT)
4. NEVADA(MTN. WEST)
13. VERMONT(AM. EAST)

6. VILLANOVA(BIG EAST)
11. Nebraska/Utah State
- Jacksonville VMA(Jacksonville, FL)
3. North Carolina
14. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE(SUMMIT)

7. Ole Miss
10. LIPSCOMB(A-SUN)
- Wells Fargo Arena(Des Moines, IA)
2. MICHIGAN STATE(B1G)
15. MONTANA(BIG SKY)

West Regional(Anaheim, CA)

1. GONZAGA(WCC)
16. SAM HOUSTON STATE(SOUTHLAND)
- Vivint Smart Home Arena(SLC, UT)
8. Auburn
9. Texas

5. Louisville
12. Alabama/Arizona State
- XL Center(Hartford, CT)
4. Purdue
13. YALE(IVY)

6. Virginia Tech
11. Central Florida
- Jacksonville VMA(Jacksonville, FL)
3. LSU
14. OLD DOMINION(C-USA)

7. Cincinnati
10. Syracuse
- Wells Fargo Arena(Des Moines, IA)
2. Michigan
15. LOYOLA(CH)(MVC)

Bids by Conference:
B1G: 9
ACC: 8
Big 12: 8
SEC: 7
Big East: 4
AAC: 3
Pac 12: 2
Mountain West: 2
Southern Conference: 2

Top 10 "Seed" Curve: Duke, Virginia, Tennessee, Gonzaga, Michigan, Kentucky, Michigan State, Kansas, Houston, Marquette
Last 4 BYES: Seton Hall, Minnesota, Central Florida, Furman
Last 4 IN: Alabama, Nebraska, Utah State, Arizona State
First 4 OUT: Florida, Clemson, Butler, Temple
Next 4 OUT: Davidson, Liberty, UNC-Greensboro, Arkansas

GOd bless you for giving love to Nebraska

Do you think there is any rhyme or reason to who gets the play in games?

 

[ericd7633]

GOd bless you for giving love to Nebraska

Do you think there is any rhyme or reason to who gets the play in games?

No, it's simply the last 4 best at-larges. The case for Nebraska is they are 8-11 against Q1 and Q2 competition, with no bad losses. They might not have the elite win/wins like a Seton Hall, Furman, Alabama, Arizona State etc...but unlike almost every team around them, they don't have a truly bad loss(Q3).

The combination of their Q1/Q2 record, combined with no bad losses, is why I have them barely in the field as of now.

 

[rmilia1]

No, it's simply the last 4 best at-larges. The case for Nebraska is they are 8-11 against Q1 and Q2 competition, with no bad losses. They might not have the elite win/wins like a Seton Hall, Furman, Alabama, Arizona State etc...but unlike almost every team around them, they don't have a truly bad loss(Q3).

The combination of their Q1/Q2 record, combined with no bad losses, is why I have them barely in the field as of now.

So hypothetically say Nebraska wins 3 of their last 5 and gets 1 win in the B10 tourney . Do you think ( assuming there's not a lot of stolen bids ) that 19-14 ( 9-13 ) gets them in ? I think it will

 

[mr.hockey4242]

No, it's simply the last 4 best at-larges. The case for Nebraska is they are 8-11 against Q1 and Q2 competition, with no bad losses. They might not have the elite win/wins like a Seton Hall, Furman, Alabama, Arizona State etc...but unlike almost every team around them, they don't have a truly bad loss(Q3).

The combination of their Q1/Q2 record, combined with no bad losses, is why I have them barely in the field as of now.

Does Butler have any at large path outside of winning 1 or both of the big road games?

 

[ericd7633]

So hypothetically say Nebraska wins 3 of their last 5 and gets 1 win in the B10 tourney . Do you think ( assuming there's not a lot of stolen bids ) that 19-14 ( 9-13 ) gets them in ? I think it will

I think I do too. All 5 of their remaining games are Q1. So they'd be 11-13 against Q1/Q2. Their first game in the tournament is likely to not be a Q1/Q2 game, so they'd finish 11-14 against Q1/Q2 competition, but with NO bad losses.

 

[ericd7633]

Does Butler have any at large path outside of winning 1 or both of the big road games?

I think they need to win at least one game against either Nova/Marquette to have a chance. Assuming they go 3-2 with losses to Nova/MU, they'll enter the Big East tournament 18-13(9-9). And they'll be 8-12 against Q1/Q2. They'll be right around the cut line assuming they don't lose their first game of the Big East Tournament, but I'd probably have them on the outside. Plus it also depends what other bubble teams do. I'm of the thinking we'll see a couple bid thieves this year.

 

[rmilia1]

I think I do too. All 5 of their remaining games are Q1. So they'd be 11-13 against Q1/Q2. Their first game in the tournament is likely to not be a Q1/Q2 game, so they'd finish 11-14 against Q1/Q2 competition, but with NO bad losses.

It may sound nuts but I'm not even sure 18-15 doesn't get then them in as long as they win their first B10 tourney game

 

[ericd7633]

It may sound nuts but I'm not even sure 18-15 doesn't get then them in as long as they win their first B10 tourney game

There is precedent for a team two games over .500 to get in, so being 3 games over certainly isn't something that is an automatic disqualifier.

 

[jontaejones]

I agree. I actually think the field is pretty strong all the way through the 7 seeds. Once you start getting to the 8 line and below, it's just a huge cluster, and not much separation.

At the top it's stronger this year.

Michigan has 3 losses, one of which could be considered a bad loss and is stuck on the 2 line. Villanova had pretty much the same profile last year at this time and was firmly #2 overall.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

At the top it's stronger this year.

Michigan has 3 losses, one of which could be considered a bad loss and is stuck on the 2 line. Villanova had pretty much the same profile last year at this time and was firmly #2 overall.

Yeah the top is crazy this year.

Bubble is considerably weaker this year tho.

 

[TJabroni]

Round 1 UCF match-up....I'm on board.

 

[ericd7633]

Alabama, Nebraska, Clemson, Davidson, Indiana all lose tonight.

 

[ericd7633]

Florida, Seton Hall, NC State, Lipscomb, Ohio State, Butler, Utah State and Arizona State all in action tonight.

 

[gobigred]

Alabama, Nebraska, Clemson, Davidson, Indiana all lose tonight.

Correction: Nebraska got their shit kicked in but a mediocre Penn State team. I think you can remove Nebraska now. No way they are winning enough of remaining games to make tournament.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

@ericd7633

Gtown have a chance at entering the convo? If Illinois keeps winning that can get the Hoyas to 4 Q1 wins

 

[bksballer89]

Where you dropping St. Johns and Nevada after those games last night @ericd7633