Updated Bracketology 2.18.18

[ericd7633]

South Regional(Atlanta, GA)

1. VIRGINIA(ACC)
16. HARVARD(IVY)
- Spectrum Center(Charlotte, NC)
8. Creighton
9. Florida

5. RHODE ISLAND(A-10)
12. VERMONT(AM. EAST)
- Taco Bell Arena(Boise, ID)
4. Wichita State
13. LOYOLA-CHICAGO(MVC)

6. Kentucky
11. Virginia Tech/Marquette
- American Airlines Arena(Dallas, TX)
3. Texas Tech
14. BUCKNELL(PATRIOT)

7. Florida State
10. Texas
- PPG Paints Arena(Pittsburgh, PA)
2. Purdue
15. UCSB(BIG WEST)

East Regional(Boston, MA)

1. Villanova
16. GRAMBLING(SWAC)/NICHOLLS(SOUTHLAND)
- PPG Paints Arena(Pittsburgh, PA)
8. Alabama
9. TCU

5. Ohio State
12. BUFFALO(MAC)
- Taco Bell Arena(Boise, ID)
4. GONZAGA(WCC)
13. NEW MEXICO STATE(WAC)

6. West Virginia
11. LSU
- Intrust Bank Arena(Wichita, KS)
3. CINCINNATI(AAC)
14. CHARLESTON(CAA)

7. NEVADA(MTN. WEST)
10. Miami
- Bridgestone Arena(Nashville, TN)
2. AUBURN(SEC)
15. WRIGHT STATE(HORIZON)

Midwest Regional(Omaha, NE)

1. XAVIER(BIG EAST)
16. FGCU(A-SUN)/SAVANNAH ST(MEAC)
- Little Caesars Arena(Detroit, MI)
8. Arizona State
9. St. Bonaventure

5. Houston
12. LOUISIANA(SUN BELT)
- Viejas Center(San Diego, CA)
4. Tennessee
13. ETSU(SO. CON)

6. Missouri
11. UCLA
- Bridgestone Arena(Nashville, TN)
3. North Carolina
14. MURRAY STATE(OVC)

7. Oklahoma
10. Providence
- Little Caesars Arena(Detroit, MI)
2. MICHIGAN STATE(B1G)
15. MONTANA(BIG SKY)

West Regional(Los Angeles, CA)

1. KANSAS(BIG 12)
16. UNC ASHEVILLE(BIG SOUTH)
- Intrust Bank Arena(Wichita, KS)
8. Seton Hall
9. St. Mary's

5. Texas A&M
12. MTSU(C-USA)
- American Air Lines Center(Dallas, TX)
4. Clemson
13. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE(SUMMIT)

6. Michigan
11. NC State/Baylor
- Viejas Center(San Diego, CA)
3. ARIZONA(PAC 12)
14. RIDER(MAAC)

7. Arkansas
10. Butler
- Spectrum Center(Charlotte, NC)
2. Duke
15. WAGNER(NEC)

Top 16 "Seed" Curve: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas, Duke, Auburn, Michigan State, Purdue, Texas Tech, North Carolina, Arizona, Cincinnati, Clemson, Tennessee, Gonzaga, Wichita State.
Last 4 BYES:
Texas, Providence, UCLA, LSU
Last 4 IN: NC State, Virginia Tech, Marquette, Baylor
First 4 OUT: Syracuse, Kansas State, USC, Washington
Next 4 OUT: Notre Dame, Boise State, Louisville, Nebraska

 

[bksballer89]

Nice to see Baylor made their way into your bracket.

 

[ericd7633]

Nice to see Baylor made their way into your bracket.

3-1 should lock them up, no matter what they do in the Big 12 tournament.

 

[bksballer89]

3-1 should lock them up, no matter what they do in the Big 12 tournament.

Same for Va Tech? Just looked at their schedule. They have a chance for 2 huge wins in their final 4.

Home games vs Clemson, Louisville, and Duke. 1 road game vs Miami

 

[ericd7633]

Same for Va Tech? Just looked at their schedule. They have a chance for 2 huge wins in their final 4.

Home games vs Clemson, Louisville, and Duke. 1 road game vs Miami

It depends, I think beating Duke would obviously be more beneficial than going 3-1 and not beating Duke. If they finish 3-1, but don't get a double bye, they are going to have to avoid getting upset by the 12/13 seed in the ACCT assuming they're the 5 seed in the ACCT.

If they finish 3-1 with one of those being over Duke, AND finish with a double bye, I think they will, at that point be a lock.

 

[bksballer89]

If OU loses 2 of their final 4 and the first game of the conference tourney, are they still in?

 

[ericd7633]

If OU loses 2 of their final 4 and the first game of the conference tourney, are they still in?

Yeah, I still think they'd be pretty safely in. Probably in the 8/9 range. They'd still have 6 Q1 wins. and 7 top 50 RPI wins.

 

[DHoey]

UW finishes 3-1, they're in right?

 

[jontaejones]

Very nice bracket.

The teams left with a shot at a #1 seed:

UVA (lock)
Nova
Michigan State
Duke
Xavier
Kansas

In order of the likelihood that they will indeed get one.

What do you think?

 

[ericd7633]

UW finishes 3-1, they're in right?

No I don't think so. Especially if they lose their first game in the Pac 12 tournament. UW will make for a fascinating case, if this is the year they introduce outside metrics, if that's the case, they'll have to win the Pac 12 tournament. 95 in KenPom, 114 in BPI, 93 in Sagarin. I hope they don't do that though.

 

[tducey]

Good bracket, should be a fun final month of the season.

 

[ericd7633]

Very nice bracket.

The teams left with a shot at a #1 seed:

UVA (lock)
Nova
Michigan State
Duke
Xavier
Kansas

In order of the likelihood that they will indeed get one.

What do you think?

I would actually go in this order:

UVA
Nova
Kansas
Xavier
Duke
Michigan State

I honestly think if Nova and Xavier win out til they would presumably meet in the Big East final that both of them would be 1 seeds. That leaves, essentially Kansas, Duke and Michigan State out of the teams you mentioned. Committee isn't high on Michigan State as evidenced by their 3 seed in the first reveal. Because of that I think their shot at getting a 1 seed in extremely low. Then it comes down to what Kansas and Duke do at the end of the year. I think it is telling the committee thought higher of Kansas than Duke in the initial reveal even though Duke had a better record, that leads me to believe if they play similarly down the stretch Kansas will get the nod, and rightfully so, they have 10 Q1 wins, no other team has more than 8. I think if Duke even were to run the table and win the ACCT the most Q1 wins they could reach is 10. Not that Q1 wins are the end all be all, but the chairman did reference them quite often during the reveal.

 

[DHoey]

No I don't think so. Especially if they lose their first game in the Pac 12 tournament. UW will make for a fascinating case, if this is the year they introduce outside metrics, if that's the case, they'll have to win the Pac 12 tournament. 95 in KenPom, 114 in BPI, 93 in Sagarin. I hope they don't do that though.

A first round Pac exit would doom them for sure. I do hope that they don't have to win the tourney to get in because IF we play Zona again, they're gonna be a pissed off bunch.

 

[ericd7633]

A first round Pac exit would doom them for sure. I do hope that they don't have to win the tourney to get in because IF we play Zona again, they're gonna be a pissed off bunch.

It might be tough to avoid Zona as it looks like UW might be headed to finish 4th or 5th in league play.

 

[bksballer89]

3-1 should lock them up, no matter what they do in the Big 12 tournament.

Well this isn't what they needed.

Down 24 in the 2nd half to WVU.

3-1 doesn't look so likely now with road games left vs K-State and TCU

 

[ericd7633]

Well this isn't what they needed.

Down 24 in the 2nd half to WVU.

3-1 doesn't look so likely now with road games left vs K-State and TCU

Yeah, this is a very surprising no show from Baylor. 2-2 finish will likely need them to win a game or 2 in the Big 12 tournament.

 

[OregonDucks]

I am surprised they don't have Oklahoma as a 2 seed. They love Young and the Sooners.

 

[bksballer89]

I am surprised they don't have Oklahoma as a 2 seed. They love Young and the Sooners.

Why would they?

 

[OregonDucks]

Why would they?

Oh I don't know, Oklahoma is like 16-12 and still ranked in the top 25...He must generate a ton of clicks for the sports media because they continually talk about him and promote him as the greatest.

 

[bksballer89]

Oh I don't know, Oklahoma is like 16-12 and still ranked in the top 25...He must generate a ton of clicks for the sports media because they continually talk about him and promote him as the greatest.

Not ranked in the top 25 anymore.

Where have they promoted him as the greatest? You sound jealous of the kid success

You're mad because of a 19 year old is having success and played his way into the nba lottery?